Category Neocons A Clear and Present Danger

Feb 28 2023

Model & the 1991 Collapse of USSR


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Feb 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, I remember your 1991 conference when you said Russia looked like it would collapse by the end of the year. I think it was December 31st when Gorbachev resigned. But I also remember how we were talking about how key reversals were still reappearing but migrating to different time levels. You never talk about that today. You had said that the migration of reversals would often hint at the next crash or slingshot. That was what we got in 1991 when Russia collapsed. Do you see anything like that again?

I am glad you are still at this. You have great insight as a trader.

If Scotty wants to beam you up, please say not yet!

DZ

ANSWER: Only for you Dave. Your memory is better than an elephant’s. OMG, how black was my beard. I also had some hair back then. Yes, you are right. I probably have not written here about the strange manner in which markets do move. Yes, the USSR collapse by the end of that year. There was the August 1991 coup against Gorbachev.

The Quarterly Array back then picked the 4th quarter of 1991 and the 4th quarter of 1992. The first was a Panic breakout to the upside and the second was a Panic to the downside making the reaction low the week of October 10th, 1992. The reversals were clearly fractal in nature and key reversals will reappear and migrate through the various time levels. That was something which was very fascinating. I promise I will find the time to express more detail on that phenomenon. It was indeed another aspect that the model revealed that I never expected. There is such a hidden order that lies behind the mask of randomness.

People who talk about random walks are simply incapable of forecasting for they cannot see the order behind what they think is chaos. Just as Einstein said, he cannot believe that God plays dice with the universe. I discovered the same thing when it comes to market activity. There is no such thing as random walks. There is a secret order to everything.

When I went to economics class, they said there was a business cycle but it is not regular and cannot be predicted because it was random. Then I went to physics class and they said nothing is random. I came to the conclusion someone was lying. It turned out to be the economics professor. Larry Summers still maintains that view. Hence, economists can manipulate society if it is random – not predetermined.

In plotting what Lorenz thought was random weather data, what emerged was a hidden order that we could not see otherwise. This even disproves the entire nonsense of Climate Change. It has always changed and there is a pattern to the movement – it is not random and we have not altered the climate cycle. Again, it is the same type of people who cannot see the patterns in markets so they say it is a random walk.

I ran markets through our Chaos models and patterns of regularity emerged – not random walks. Again, there is far more order to markets and that is why personal opinions will never cut it when we are trying to forecast the future.

I have on my bucket list to do the next book on the ECM – my gift to posterity. Hopefully, one-day people will wake up and understand that there is a hidden order to everything – NOTHING is ever random. When the USSR collapsed, the capital again fled to the USA in the face of a new level of uncertainty. The New Yorker ran the article on me in 2009 and called it  – The Secret Cycle.

Feb 28 2023

Biden – Wokeness over Experience


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Feb 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty; You said in passing that a Congressman asked you to “get back in the game” because they had nobody with your experience in Washington from the Cold War era. I know you laughed at that and said that was just 1991. Perhaps this clip explains why just maybe we need you more than ever. This “woke” Administration is taking us to World War III because as you have said, they are making you look like a diplomatic prophet. This is why. Wokeness over experience. This is what she actually says:

“The Cabinet is majority people of color for the first time in history. The Cabinet is majority female for the first time in history. A majority of White House senior staff identify is female and a record 7 assistants to the president are LGBTQ+.”

CH

REPLY: This is incredible. Maybe you are right. This is why the Neocons have been able to seize control. There is nobody with even common sense left in this Administration. This just confirms what I have been saying. This is historically the worst crop of world leaders I have ever seen in my 40+ years. When color and gender are more important than qualification, how can society survive? Obviously, being black and a female she ticks off two boxes and is more qualified than just a black male or a white female. Biden is proud of his statistics?

Everyone who has ever eaten a carrot has died. So, obviously, carrots must be lethal. Just Washington logic these days.

Feb 28 2023

War Footing or Ukraine? – Biden Waives Section 303 of DPA Related to Weapons, Ammunition, Explosives and Components


Posted Originally on the CTH on February 27, 2023 | Sundance 

The Defense Production Act (DPA 1950 amended, pdf) essentially is a legislative hurdle that stops the executive from stepping into the private sector and restricting trade, commerce or manufacturing, unless the President says a critical shortage of “xxxx” is present and national security is at stake. It prevents citizens from the threat of govt nationalization of resource “xxxx”.

In the event the President makes a national security determination, he/she is required to inform congress, invoke the waiver authority, and identify which sectors he/she is now outlining as a national security… such that government purchase orders take precedent in the supply of “xxxx”.  Yesterday, President Biden invoked this authority.

Given the pandemic shortages are over, and given the sectors outlined, it looks like munitions, raw material, explosives, electronics and certain component issues related to the Defense Dept are outlined.

Key section: “Therefore, I waive the requirements of section 303(a)(1)-(a)(6) of the Act”…

…”specifically for defense organic industrial base supply chains critical to the Department of Defense and critical supply chains for electronics, kinetic capabilities, castings and forgings, minerals and materials, and power and energy storage.” (link)

It’s a use of the DPA definitively targeting defense materials.  Which raises the question(s):

Is this to secure weapons for shipment to Ukraine?..  OR, Is this to secure a buildup of weapons for a larger purpose?   Meaning, is this preparing for an expanded war effort?

There is a lack of media curiosity.  However, perhaps drawing attention to it will stimulate someone to ask the Pentagon?

In the interim, ammunition might become a little harder to find.

Feb 28 2023

The Golden Arrow – President Trump Announces Economic Agenda 47 Which Includes “Universal Baseline Tariffs”


Posted originally on the CTH on February 27, 2023 | Sundance

This is it. This is pure MAGA. President Trump is announcing the big one… “Economic Agenda 47“

This is the economic policy blade to drive a stake through the vampire heart of corporatism, globalism and the exploitation of the U.S. economy by multinational corporate interests. This “universal baseline tariff” approach, is the policy that slays the dragons of the World Economic Forum, destroys the Beijing dragon and simultaneously ends the EU Marshal Plan advantage. This is a big deal.

President Trump makes the economic policy announcement today, and it is an incredible structure of trade and economic proposals that would be resoundingly effective at restoring every financial mechanism within the United States as a sovereign country.  The proposal is economic nationalism in policy form.

First, here’s the announcement {Direct Rumble Link} – WATCH:

Agenda47: President Trump Announces America First Trade Platform That Takes Sledgehammer to Globalism

[Transcript] – “Joe Biden claims to support American manufacturing—but in reality, he is pushing the same pro-China globalist agenda that ripped the industrial heart out of our country. It ripped us apart. Biden and the globalists support RAISING taxes on American production. They support MORE crippling regulations killing American jobs. They support skyrocketing domestic energy costs. And they support massive anti-American multinational agreements that send our wealth and factories overseas.

Very simply, the Biden agenda taxes AMERICA to build up CHINA.

China is the big beneficiary. We cannot let that happen. And just a couple of years ago, it wasn’t happening. China paid to the United States hundreds of billions of dollars and no other president got ten cents. Legitimately, ten cents from China.

My agenda will tax CHINA to build up AMERICA.

The heart of my vision is a sweeping pro-American overhaul of our tax and trade policy to move from the Biden system that punishes domestic producers and rewards outsourcers, to a system that REWARDS domestic production and taxes FOREIGN companies and those who export American Jobs. They will be rewarded and rewarded greatly. And our country will benefit.

To achieve this goal, we will phase in a system of universal, baseline tariffs on most foreign products. On top of this, higher tariffs will increase incrementally depending on how much individual foreign countries devalue their currency. They devalue their currency to take advantage of the United States, and they subsidize their industries, or otherwise engage in trade cheating and abuse. And they do it now like never before, and we had it largely stopped and it was going to be stopped completely within less than a year.

As tariffs on foreign producers go up, taxes on American producers will go down and go down very substantially. And that means a lot of jobs coming in.

Not only will this system end our gaping trade deficits—and they are massive right now—and bring back millions of American jobs—it will also bring trillions and trillions of dollars pouring into the U.S. Treasury from foreign countries and allow us to invest that money in American workers, American families, and American communities.

This plan will be the linchpin of a new Strategic National Manufacturing Initiative, that builds on my historic success in ending NAFTA, which was a tremendous thing, a tremendous achievement, nobody thought it could be done, and we did USMCA—US-Mexico-Canada, and it was an incredible thing. But we’re also going to end other unfair trade deals, and we’ll end them quickly.

In addition, as a matter of both economic and national security, I will implement a bold series of reforms to completely eliminate dependence on China in all critical areas.

We will revoke China’s Most Favored Nation trade status, and adopt a 4-year plan to phase out all Chinese imports of essential goods—everything from electronics to steel to pharmaceuticals. This will include strong protections to ensure China cannot circumvent restrictions by passing goods through conduit countries—countries that don’t make a product, but all of a sudden they’re making a lot of the product, it comes right through China, right out of China, and right into our country.

We will also adopt new rules to stop U.S. companies from pouring investments into China, and to stop China from buying up America, allowing all of those investments that clearly serve American interests. We’re not going to allow bad things to happen to our country anymore. And we will eliminate federal contracts for any company that outsources to China.

Biden will never get the job done. He is weak on China because the corrupt Biden family has received millions and millions of dollars from entities tied to the Chinese Communist Party. Everybody knows that. They try and hide it, and the Fake News doesn’t want to talk about it.

Biden’s pro-China economic program puts America LAST, and it’s killing our country—my cutting-edge trade agenda will revitalize our economy by once again putting America FIRST.

And by the way, we’ll get along very well with China. And you know what the reason is? They’ll respect us again, like they did just two years ago.

We will quickly become a manufacturing powerhouse like the world has never seen before.

Thank you very much.”

[Transcript Link]

~ POLICY ~

♦UNIVERSAL BASELINE TARIFFS: President Trump has announced a plan to replace the Biden system of punishing domestic producers and rewarding outsourcers with a new system that rewards domestic production while taxing foreign companies.

Rather than raising taxes on American producers, President Trump will impose tariffs on FOREIGN producers through a system of universal baseline tariffs on most imported goods.

Higher tariffs will increase incrementally if other countries manipulate their currency or otherwise engage in unfair trading practices.

As tariffs on foreign countries go up, taxes on American workers, families, and businesses can come down.

The Biden administration has proposed nearly $2 trillion in tax increases on American citizens and levied draconian tax hikes on Americans’ household energy, 401ks, and pension plans.

The Biden administration’s globalist policies sell out American citizens and result in a windfall for foreign countries.

In 2022, the United States trade deficit reached $948.1 billion, the largest on record, and the agricultural trade deficit exceeded $2 billion.

President Trump’s trade policy is firmly rooted in American history. America used to impose tariffs on over 95% of all imports, and for decades the federal government took in over 80% of its revenue by taxing foreign producers through tariffs—not by taxing American workers and businesses.

♦ENDING RELIANCE ON CHINA: President Trump’s America First trade policy will completely eliminate U.S. dependence on China–the primary beneficiary of Democrats’ globalist agenda.

In addition to universal baseline tariffs on most foreign goods, President Trump’s plan will reclaim our economic independence from China. President Trump will revoke China’s Most Favored Nation trade status and adopt a 4-year plan to phase out all Chinese imports of essential goods—everything from electronics to steel to pharmaceuticals. This will include strong protections to ensure China cannot circumvent restrictions by passing goods through conduit countries.

President Trump will establish new rules to stop U.S. companies from investing in China and stop China from buying up America, allowing only those investments that serve American interests.

President Trump will ban federal contracts for any company that outsources to China.

Under Biden and the Democrats, American wealth and jobs are being exported to China.

The U.S. trade deficit with China has risen almost 10% under Biden to $382.9 billion last year alone.

♦A BETTER DEAL FOR AMERICAN WORKERS, FAMILIES, AND COMMUNITIES: President Trump’s plans will bring back millions of American jobs and generate trillions of dollars of new wealth to strengthen American society.

President Trump’s tariff plans will be the linchpin of a new Strategic National Manufacturing Initiative that will rebalance the global trading system and dramatically strengthen America.

Raising tariffs on foreign producers while lowering taxes for domestic producers will help keep jobs and wealth in the United States.

Higher tariffs create millions of new jobs, increase real household income, boost GDP, increase domestic manufacturing output, and generate hundreds of billions of dollars in new government revenue.

President Trump’s universal baseline tariffs will restore a level playing field for American businesses worldwide.

U.S. exports have historically faced higher tariffs from foreign countries than nearly all of America’s trade competitors.

President Trump will build on his historic success in abolishing NAFTA, which Joe Biden voted for, after which 60,000 factories closed and 4.5 million manufacturing jobs were lost. President Trump replaced NAFTA with the USMCA, a historic breakthrough in leveling the playing field for American workers, famers, and manufacturers.

Fortunately, we do not have to guess if President Trump is correct. We have his actual economic policy results to look at and see how the expansion of the economy was creating the type of growth that would sustain Social Security and Medicare.  This was/is MAGAnomics at work.

…. Make America Great Again!

We know it works, because we have the results to cite.

It was the Fourth Quarter of 2019…..

Right before the pandemic would hit a few months later…. Despite two years of doomsayer predictions from Wall Street’s professional punditry, all of them saying Trump’s 2017 steel and aluminum tariffs on China, Canada and the EU would create massive inflation, it just wasn’t happening!

Overall year-over-year inflation was hovering around 1.7 percent [Table-A BLS]; yup, that was our inflation rate.  The rate in the latter half of 2019 was firmed up with less month-over-month fluctuation, and the rate basically remained consistent.   [See Below]  The U.S. economy was on a smooth glide path, strong, stable and Main Street was growing with MAGAnomics at work.

A couple of important points.  First, unleashing the energy sector to drive down overall costs to consumers and industry outputs was a key part of President Trump’s America-First MAGAnomic initiative.  Lower energy prices help the worker economy, middle class and average American more than any other sector.

Which brings us to the second important point.  Notice how food prices had very low year-over-year inflation, 0.5 percent.  That is a combination of two key issues: low energy costs, and the fracturing of Big Ag hold on the farm production and the export dynamic:

(BLS) […] The index for food at home declined for the third month in a row, falling 0.2 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs decreased 0.7 percent in August as the index for eggs fell 2.6 percent. The index for fruits and vegetables, which rose in July, fell 0.5 percent in August; the index for fresh fruits declined 1.4 percent, but the index for fresh vegetables rose 0.4 percent. The index for cereals and bakery products fell 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.3 percent in July. (link)

For the previous twenty years food prices had been increasingly controlled by Big Ag, and not by normal supply and demand.   The commodity market became a ‘controlled market’. U.S. food outputs (farm production) was controlled and exported to keep the U.S. consumer paying optimal prices.

President Trump’s trade reset was disrupting this process.  As farm products were less exported the cost of the food in our supermarket became reconnected to a ‘more normal’ supply and demand cycle.  Food prices dropped and our pantry costs were lowered.

The Commerce Dept. then announced that retail sales climbed by 0.4 percent in August 2019, twice as high as the 0.2 percent analysts had predicted. The result highlighted retail sales strength of more than 4 percent year-over-year.   These excellent results came on the heels of blowout data in July, when households boosted purchases of cars and clothing.

The better-than-expected number stemmed largely from a 1.8 percent jump in spending vehicles. Online sales, meanwhile, also continued to climb, rising 1.6 percent. That’s similar to July 2019, when Amazon held its two-day, blowout Prime Day sale. (link)

Despite the efforts to remove and impeach President Trump, it did not look like middle-class America was overly concerned about the noise coming from the pundits.   Likely that’s because blue-collar wages were higher, Main Street inflation was lower, and overall consumer confidence was strong.  Yes, MAGAnomics was working.

Additionally, remember all those MSM hours and newspaper column inches where the professional financial pundits were claiming Trump’s tariffs were going to cause massive increases in prices of consumer goods?

Well, exactly the opposite happened [BLS report] Import prices were continuing to drop:

[Table 1 – BLS report link]

This was a really interesting dynamic that no-one in the professional punditry would dare explain.

Donald Trump’s tariffs were targeted to specific sectors of imported products.  [Steel, Aluminum, and a host of smaller sectors etc.]  However, when the EU and China respond by devaluing their currency, that approach hit all products imported, not just the tariff goods.

Because the EU and China were driving up the value of the dollar, everything we were importing became cheaper.   Not just imports from Europe and China, but actually imports from everywhere.   All imports were entering the U.S. at substantially lower prices.

This meant when we imported products, we were also importing deflation.

This price result is exactly the opposite of what the economic experts and Wall Street pundits predicted back in 2017 and 2018 when they were pushing the rapid price increase narrative.

Because all the export dependent economies were reacting with such urgency to retain their access to the U.S. market, aggregate import prices were actually lower than they were when the Trump tariffs began:

[…]  Prices for imports from China edged down 0.1 percent in August following decreases of 0.2 percent in both July and June. Import prices from China have not advanced on a monthly basis since ticking up 0.1 percent in May 2018. The price index for imports from China fell 1.6 percent for the year ended in August.

[…]  Import prices from the European Union fell 0.2 percent in August and 0.3 percent over the past 12 months.

[Page #4 – BLS Report, pdf] – BLS press release.

So yes, we know President Trump can save Social Security and Medicare by expanding the economy with his America First economic policy.  We do not need to guess if it is possible or listen to pundits theorize about his approach being some random ‘catch phrase’ disconnected from reality.  Yes folks, we have the receipts.

This was MAGAnomics at work, and this is entirely what created the middle-class MAGA coalition.  No other Republican candidate has this economic policy in their outlook because all other candidates are purchased by the Wall Street multinationals.

America First MAGAnomics is unique to President Trump because he is the only one independent enough to implement them.

That’s just the reality of the situation.  They hate him for it… 

Author’s note as said in 2016: “If I absolutely did not believe this economic model was doable, I would never expand the concept and place advocacy upon it. I am an absolute believer that we can, as a nation, reignite a solid manufacturing base and generate an expanding middle class.”  Yes, I bet on Trump, and he was right.    

Feb 27 2023

The Biden Administration is Just Insane & Should Be Removed At Once


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Feb 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The threats from Biden that all the Russian Assets he has confiscated illegally from private Russians that he will hand to Ukraine is another example that demonstrates that there is nobody in the Biden Administration that understands anything about the world. The United States and Europe have countless private businesses that have assets around the world. Russia has announced if Biden and the EU do that, then they will confiscate all foreign assets.

All of this is because our world leaders have been bought and paid for by the Neocons where the dream has been to conquer Russia and the bankers are licking their lips all over again to get their hands on all the wealth of Russia. These Neocons are leading the world to its doom. They have already destroyed the world economy ending globalization. Our children will NEVER know the freedoms we grew up in. That is all gone. We are leaving our posterity nothing but memories of what used to be unless things radically change at the political level and that is not my opinion. There is not a single world leader who has bothered to question the narrative or to seek peace on any level. They are told this is a war to conquer Russia – period!

Feb 26 2023

Interview: Neocons Need War Because Monetary System Collapsing


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Feb 26, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Watch the video above or click here for the latest interview with USAWatchdog.

Commentary from Greg Hunter:

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong said at the end of last year the U.S. is being set up for a “nightmare fall.” Train derailments and political problems are spinning out of control, but the biggest threat is war. Armstrong explains, “They want a war, but they also need it because the monetary system is collapsing. . . . You have had interest rates at negative since 2014. So, suddenly interest rates are rising. Any bond owned by any institution in Europe is a loser. They have lost so much money, it’s incredible. What happens? Nobody is interested in long term debt – period. . . . If you have interest rates rising, and rates are going to be going up because the Fed cannot stop this kind of inflation. Then, you got war. You have untold billions of dollars being shipped into Ukraine which is absurd. This is what you have. . . . You also have to look at what Janet Yellen said, and she was concerned with the tons of new debt coming out. You are exceeding the balance sheets of the Primary Dealers. To be a Primary dealer you have to be able to guarantee you will be able to buy X amount of debt. If you can’t sell it, what happens? The bank is stuck with the debt, and then, they go bust. So, we have a real problem here. They cannot continue to issue this kind of debt in perpetuity. They have been borrowing money since WWII with no intention of paying anything off. . . . The Fed is independent, and they don’t want the long term debt. They have been moving towards the short end of the curve. How do you continue to fund a government if there are no buyers for the debt? This is on a global scale.”

So, war checks all the boxes? Armstrong says, “Absolutely. They get to default on all this debt which is the real objective. That’s why (Klaus) Schwab is out there saying you’ll own nothing and be happy. He’s trying to make it sound like they are doing this for you. We are going to default on all debt and relive you of all your debt. This is because they are going to wipe out everything. Pension funds will be all gone. That’s why they are coming out with guaranteed basic income to replace your pension. They’ve got this all worked out. That’s what the end goal is here because they cannot continue to function this way. They cannot continue to borrow whatever they need with no intention of ever paying it back.”

Armstrong reveals why the 2024 elections may not happen. Can the Deep State commit enough voter fraud to keep Biden and the rest of the Neocons in power? Armstrong says most of what is happening today is the fault of the Neocons, and they have control of both parties. Armstrong points out Democrat Hillary Clinton paid for the phony Trump/Russia dossier, and Republican John McCain delivered it to the FBI. Armstrong calls it the “Uni-party,” and goes deep on the problems the Neocons are causing on purpose.

Armstrong also talks about the dollar, gold, civil unrest, tangible assets and the Ukraine war. Armstrong’s sources say the real number of casualties of Ukraine Army stands at a whopping 250,000 dead. Armstrong says Russia is NOT losing the war. It is winning.

Feb 22 2023

Chairman Xi Plans Moscow Visit, Putin Suspends START Treaty, Maersk Exits Russia, Biden Talks Moldova, Planets Aligning for War


Posted originally on the CTH on February 21, 2023 | Sundance 

First things first, history may not always repeat, but it always rhymes.  Secondly, history tells us that only two things have ever pulled what we now call “western nations” out of a collective economic depression; (1) war, and (2) housing starts.

If you accept the WEF climate control agenda of a ‘managed transition‘, where economies are reduced in size to match lowered energy production, as generally speaking akin to a western economic depression.… then, you begin to ask the logical question.  How do the managers avoid the consequences?

If global (non BRICS) economic contraction is akin to a western economic depression, I would argue the consequences are identical.  Then, when major economies are in a state of shrinking and the citizens are feeling the horrible effects, something large is needed to change the economic equation.

With central banks raising interest rates to achieve the policy supporting contraction, the option for ‘housing starts’ to change the dynamic is removed.  That leaves, ‘war’.

President Putin and Chairman Xi are not stupid men.  They are big picture strategists.

♦DATA POINT – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move to suspend his country’s involvement in the last remaining arms control treaty with the U.S. came as a disturbing surprise to multiple former officials who negotiated the pact and nonproliferation experts committed to ending the expansion of nuclear forces. (read more)

Can you blame him?  The Western Alliance has already blamed Putin for the global food crisis they created by the World Economic Forum energy policy shift.  The Western Alliance accepts no responsibility for advancing hostility -through NATO expansion- on to Russia’s doorstep.  The Western Alliance has attempted to sanction Russia out of the global economy.  With the same Western Alliance now positioning for war, why would Putin adhere to their limitations?

♦DATA POINT – Chinese leader Xi Jinping is preparing to visit Moscow for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming months, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the plan. (read more)

Can you blame them?  Pay no attention to the Reuters narrative woven inside the article about China wanting to negotiate peace.  To accept that narrative is to believe there is no dragon behind the panda mask.  We are too far into the geopolitical awakening to say the dragon doesn’t exist and simultaneously hold its own interests (belt & road, and/or Taiwan) within the context. Ignoring the dragon behind the mask is really quite silly.  BRICS exists as an economic alliance of like-minded nations for exactly this geopolitical dynamic.

♦DATA POINT – Shipping and logistics group A.P. Moller-Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) has agreed to sell its two logistics sites in Russia to IG Finance Development Limited, it said on Monday, nearly marking the end of its business activities in the country. […] After that, Maersk will not have any business in Russia. (read more)

The major multinationals always position themselves to avoid the consequences of war.  Additionally, Moller-Maersk is already going to feel a major financial impact from the shrinking of the Western economies they generally service with their cargo transportation.  Smaller economies = less cargo = less ships = less revenue.  Moller-Maersk has to pick a side; they are aligned with the Western Alliance.  Hence their exit from Russia.  China/India will eventually fill the void. Again, BRICS.

These are data points just in the last 12 hours.  In addition to these data points from today, the saber rattling from the DC foreign policy and war machine financial system is on display in the Biden policy as transmitted from Warsaw. Again, just today.

Like us, I’m pretty sure from watching his statements and eventual policies over the past several years, President Donald Trump views foreign policy through the prism of economics.   If “economic security is national security,” then what is it when economic insecurity is an intentional design policy?

All of the economic data points have aligned toward direct military conflict between the Western Alliance and Russia that expands beyond the proxy war in Ukraine.

If the path is continued, this process eventually ends up with World War III.  Which, not coincidentally, boils down to the Western Economic Alliance -vs- BRICS, with a few remaining neutral and the middle east as the unknown variable.

Sound familiar?

Look below, you might find a familiar visual reference:

Yep, history rhymes.

Any questions? 

Feb 20 2023

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Admits Goal is to Shrink Economy to Meet Decreased Energy Supplies


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 19, 2023 | Sundance

This video interview segment was sent to me today along with a “wow, you were right” message.  Apparently, the interview took place a few weeks ago (it’s new to me), but the admissions within it are quite remarkable.

The CNBC discussion surrounds inflation and the federal reserve raising interest rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is talking about the jobs report, inflation and the intention of the federal reserve to continue raising interest rates until they achieve 2% inflation, regardless of consequence.  Kashkari doesn’t hedge on the latter issue of consequence; he affirms with absolute guarantee the fed will keep raising rates until the economy shrinks enough such that 2% inflation is achieved.  However, watch what happens when Joe Kernan takes that outlook and overlays “supply side” energy policy.  WATCH (10:22 prompted):

The issue is quite simple, really.  When additional oil, coal and natural gas development is blocked as an outcome of policy, energy prices jump massively.  We are seeing 2022/2023 price increases in electricity, home heating, fuel, gasoline, natural gas and other total energy price outcomes in the 60%+ range.

As a direct outcome of energy policy, all of the downstream products and services have massive upward supply side price pressure.  When the input prices are driving upward of 60%, the downstream prices increase accordingly.  Farming costs, fertilizer, feeding, transportation costs, food at retail and wholesale, and just about every petroleum-based product, which is almost everything, increases in price accordingly.

If supply side energy price increases are pushing +60%, and the Fed will only accept a 2% inflation output result, the only method of achieving the desired result is to shrink energy demand.  This is the goal of the current Fed monetary policy.  In this interview Kashkari admits the dynamic for the first time in public.

Prior to this interview, the Fed was being too-cute-by-half as they talked about targeting the ‘demand side’ through increased rates.  The demand they were targeting is the energy demand, but people (mostly in the financial and business world) were not willing to accept that Federal Reserve monetary policy would intentionally try to shrink the economy.

When overall energy price increases are driving upward of 60%, it is going to take a major amount of economic contraction to drop energy demand to meet the diminished energy supply.  CTH has been warning about this ultimate objective for over two years.  It’s a simple economic situation.

+60% price on the supply side, with a goal of +2% on the downstream demand side, equals a major amount of activity needing to be removed. Essentially energy use needs to drop by half.

You can put everyone in an electric car and still not even come close to dropping energy demand 50%.  You cannot “energy efficient” your way to a 50% drop in demand; there just isn’t enough waste in the system, especially when people are already paying close attention to energy use because it costs so much.

This “transition to the new green economy” is a whole of society shift.

This “transition to the new green economy”, is a multi-generational shift.

The transition includes putting people in smaller houses, stopping their travel, stopping their purchasing of new goods, taking down entire industries and limiting human activity on a massive scale.

Something akin to the COVID-19 lockdown period would be needed, only this level of diminished economic activity would be permanent.

It makes you wonder if the COVID-19 lockdown was the test to see how much energy use would drop if everyone was stopped in place.  And yes, during the COVID lockdowns, human activity did stop, economic activity did stop, and energy use did drop by the nearly amount we are talking about.

When you accept what Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is openly admitting in that interview segment, particularly as he is asked about the massive supply side costs and how that overlays, then you realize how prescient the image is below.

This image is the exact future you see flowing from the “radical transformation,” or what is also called “managing the transition“…

At the end of the transition, you have two social societies.   One social system is a massive assembly of human activity all in close proximity. The alternative social system consists of those who do not wish to be jammed into Build Back Better cities yet forced to sustain themselves because the energy production and delivery resources in the larger geography have been stopped.

Now you know why I asked the question, “where would you live” over a decade ago.

Feb 20 2023

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Takes His “Not Campaigning, Campaigning Tour” to New York, Illinois and Beyond to Promote Law Enforcement


Posted originally on the CTH on February 19, 2023 | Sundance

Keeping up the coy and deliberately managed strategy of not running for 2024 while running for 2024, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will embark on a multi-state promotional effort to showcase his pro law enforcement outlook.

DeSantis starts Monday in Staten Island, New York, and the managers are counting on being able to do the ’24 run for office without angering the base Republican voters who see duplicity and deception in the construct.

As George Soros said of DeSantis personality, he’s “shrewd, ruthless, and ambitious,” the perfect blend of characteristics to operate as a pliable vessel operating on behalf of his Machiavellian management team.

NEW YORK – Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will visit New York City Monday for a pro-law enforcement rally at a catering hall in Staten Island – a holiday incursion into one of former President Trump’s most loyal strongholds.

The 7:30 a.m. President’s Day speech at Privé will be the governor’s first stop on a multi-city tour to showcase his pro-cop bona fides as he gears up for an expected 2024 White House campaign, insiders said.

 “On Staten Island, we are proud to support our law enforcement,” said Assemblyman Mike Tannousis, the Staten Island GOP chairman. “I’m happy that our law enforcement community will get some recognition and support.”

The city’s reddest borough is packed with Trump backers, who gave him 57% of the island’s vote in 2020 – making Monday’s foray a crucial test of DeSantis’s chances among the former president’s remaining devotees. (read more)

Feb 17 2023

NATO Preparing for World War III


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Feb 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Perhaps NATO is starting to wake up. They now realize that they may have to wage war on two fronts simultaneously. NATO is considering what they call a defensive move which is an “Article 5 conflict” but also an “out-of-area” battle. This is showing that NATO is no longer what it was supposed to have been – the defense of Europe against a Soviet invasion that never took place. The “out-of-area” is none other than China invading Taiwan. NATO is simply usurping power that it was never authorized to carry out. This, Article 5 event is an attack on a NATO member, whereas the “out-of-area” is a non-NATO member.

Clearly, we are witnessing how once power is taken, it is always abused. NATO has always billed itself as a “defensive alliance” but it has embarked on an offensive posture with Ukraine and now even Taiwan. Don’t forget, NATO joined the hostilities in Yugoslavia during the 1990s and again with Libya in 2011. Many have viewed that NATO has been usurped by the American Neocons to further their agenda of manipulating US foreign policy. That is becoming self-evident by even considering war with China and Russia.

All our sources confirm that the US has demanded that Brussels increase its defense expenditures. Everyone is expected to chip in 2% of GDP – ASAP. The US is now also expecting that it will have to fight on two fronts against both China and Russia. The Neocons are demanding higher Pentagon budgets now. They simply want war and we have no right to vote on any of this confirming once again, we do not live in a democracy, but in a dictatorship masquerading as a republic.

You NEVER go to war without weight the gains against the losses. What is taking place is the very same bankers that tried to take over Russia I wrote about in the 2000 Plot to Seize Russia, are back after 23 years and they are pleading to wage war and are licking their lips once again at seizing all the natural resources of Russia from gold and diamonds, to energy and uranium.