Category Socrates

Nov 7 2024

Socrates Wins Again – Beats All the Forecasts & Mainstream Media


Posted originally on Nov 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Allan_Lichtman_the_Election_Nostradamus_feels_the_pressure_but_won_t_waver_o
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Newsweek Kamala_Harris_Predicted_to_Win_By_Nearly_Every_Major_Forecaster_Newsweek

COMMENT: Wow. All the major people who have touted a Harris victory have never been wrong. Newsweek proclaimed every major forecaster gave it to Harris. Socrates has projected every single race without fail. I know. I bet them. Trump flipped Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in his favor, leading to the Republican’s victory. When will the world wake up and give you credit for creating a system that has beaten the odds every single time?

In Trump’s vocabulary. “Fantastic!”

Every Podcast should be giving you credit right now to help the world understand the truth.

PSC

Economist _Kamala_Harris_moves_ahead_just_in_our_final_election_forecast

REPLY: Socrates was the only one correct in 2016 and BRXIT. It functions WITHOUT polling – it’s economic based. Those in the media are mostly LEFTISTS so they always forecast what they want to see. Polls are not reliable because they sample people but who controls the sample? If you had conducted a poll only in Washington, DC, Trump would have had maybe 5%.

As I have said on Greg Hinter’s Podcast, the computer was showing the gap would be TOO BIG to fix this time. Trump’s reelection has brought him into a unique club, joining Democrat Grover Cleveland as one of only two U.S. presidents to serve nonconsecutive terms. Trump is the 45th president and now the 47th president.  Trump followed Cleveland’s path, which was held in office in 1885 and then again in 1893. The rare achievement highlights Trump’s sustained influence over a divided electorate and the discontent with the establishment. Cleveland may have been a Democrat, but he was also against members of his own party – the Silver Democrats.

Cleveland

Cleveland faced the same type of divided country, especially within his own party. He stood against the rise of Marxism as has Trump. The Democrats were then flooding the country with silver to inflate the nation. Sherman Silver Purchase Act of 1890 was passed by the U.S. Congress to supplant the Bland-Allison Act of 1878. It not only required the U.S. government to purchase nearly twice as much silver as before, 4,500,000 ounces (130,000 kilograms) per month, but it also added substantially to the amount of money already in circulation. The Sherman Silver Purchase Act, named after John Sherman, was enacted in support of the advocates of the Free Silver Democrats. This Act created massive unsound finance that undermined the U.S. Treasury’s gold reserves. Only after the Panic of 1893 did President Grover Cleveland call a special session of Congress and secure the repeal of the Act. His speech is recorded above.

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This economic evolution of the real Long Depression (1873-1899) created a “depression” for many as unemployment rose yet monopolies grew as did corporate profits for many in the right field. It wiped out Philadelphia as the financial capital of the United States, and J.P. Morgan would move that to New York City with his innovation. From this highly volatile period, as we are entering today, what emerged from socialism/Marxism burst to the surface, producing Coxley’s Army, which marched upon Washington following the  Panic of 1893. It was this march that led to the idea of socialism, for FDR took most of the demands first argued by Coxley that government should create jobs for the unemployed. This led to the Antitrust Legislation and the Progressive Movement of Teddy Roosevelt.

Wizard-Oz
YellowBrickRoad

Coxley’s March became the subject of Lyman Baum’s Wizard of Oz – We’re off to see the wizard the wonderful wizard of Oz (Congress) following the Yellow Brick Road (gold standard & austerity). This economic event created serious change.

This entire series of legislation that set in motion the various financial Panics of the 1890s was inspired at least by Karl Marx (1818-1883). Despite the Sherman Silver Purchase Act being repealed, none of the other legislation was repealed, yet it was all the same inspiration.

marx

To this day, we still have the Sherman Anti-Trust Act, which Marx inspired, and the idea was based upon the observation that all of these start-up railroads were being purchased and consolidated. The politicians saw this as eliminating jobs, considering labor rather than economic efficiency. This entire rise of Marxism culminated in the passage of the Income Tax Act in 1909, rejecting the Founding Fathers’ wisdom of no direct taxation and adopting Karl Marx’s philosophy has undermined our nation, and the DOJ uses income tax to threaten journalists to kill or spin stories that they want or else!

Politicians found it worked to print to win elections that has given us our national debt, and they have pointed at the rich using Marxism to target the “rich.” This election was a referendum on Marxism that main stream media refuses to address.

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Ironically, I almost bought Westland Mansion, which was the home of Grover Cleveland in Princeton, New Jersey, where he spent his retirement from 1897 until his death in 1908.

Aug 7 2023

Big Picture Interview of Martin Armstrong


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Aug 7, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

https://youtube.com/watch?v=tbtZW_lIWaI%3Ffeature%3Doembed

The following image is what the WEF and the Neocons have planed for us.

May 12 2023

Can Socrates find new solutions to Crises?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates Re-Posted May 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Allison Schrager at Bloomberg claimed that AI does a great job finding solutions based on existing rules and information. But it’s less suited for finding novel solutions to new problems. Somehow, this does not seem to apply to Socrates for there are no new problems anyway. Am I correct that Socrates will find new solutions?

GU

ANSWER: Yes, you are correct. However, Socrates has a database that is unprecedented and cost tens of millions of dollars to assemble. It can find solutions that are certainly not mainstream and may appear to be revolutionary but in fact, may have taken place even 2,000 years ago.

Socrates is NOT a Neutral Net. This is something I created from scratch. I put myself into this system. I had to teach Socrates how to analyze. I did not create some open AI and let it develop in some unknown manner. This is not Chat GPT where it is searching the net to come up with answers to what is the name of Lady GaGa’s dog.

Socrates has the largest financial database in the world. It has a money supply recreated from the coinage of thousands of years. It has correlated that with wars and plagues and it makes the connections. It has a database of 6,000 years which is unsurpassable. If I even tried to recreate this at today’s prices, it would be more than $1 billion.

Just on Forex Exchange, I had staff recording all the currencies back hundreds of years taking down quotes for all the world newspapers stored at the Royal Newspaper Library in London for years. Without that, we would never have been able to forecast that the pound would drop to par in 1985 when it was trading at $2.40.

What Socrates will do is it will test what attempts were made to solve crises in the past and what worked and what failed. Diocletian (284-305AD) imposed wage and price controls to try to stop inflation the same as Richard Nixon.

There was a major earthquake in Turkey that devastated the region. Emperor Tiberius issued coins to provide relief and suspended all taxes in the region to help rebuild. There have been so many different solutions that people today would never consider, but Socrates will.

May 12 2023

Here is a Larger Video of Socrates’ Solution


Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates Re-Posted May 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

This was the Question asked:

Socrates, how do I solve a debt crisis without a default that is fair to both sides?

Apr 17 2023

Sources


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Apr 16, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You are renowned for your sources. You said the IMF was planning to replace the dollar with its own international digital currency. You targeted Ukraine a year before anyone heard of the country. You said Ukraine was losing the war and they had lost 100,000 troops when people said that was Russian propaganda. That turned out to be classified as Ukrainian information. These Pentagon papers confirm everything you have said a year ago. Israel was reluctant to send anything to Ukraine when everyone said Zelensky was Jewish. The list goes on and on.

My question is, why do you have information from around the world before anyone else?

HP

ANSWER: That is hard to say. I think what has emerged over the decades is that people are sharing information from all over to get a true picture of what is honestly happening. People come to me because I put out the truth. Back when they were forming the Euro, it has come out that the Bundesbank was against it. They were providing all the notes and discussions going on because they also know we have the largest institutional audience of anyone. It is never my opinion. Everyone has opinions and that means nothing. We are well read because it is not my personal opinion. I really cannot address this subject any more than that.

Apr 17 2023

Greg Hunter Interview of Martin Armstrong


Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 16, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Apr 4 2023

The 6th Wave – Do We Ever Learn?


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Apr 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:
Hi,

Have you come across a period in history that at the end of the sixth wave, after the political system dies, during the next six waves, human mankind learned from its past errors and corrected it?

ANSWER: Actually, the answer is NO. The fall of the Minoan Civilization brought in a dark age with the invasion of the Sea Peoples from the North who were driven south by climate and conquered all the civilizations during the Bronze Age except for Egypt. Reliefs show the Egyptians in heated battles against the Sea Peoples.

Everything in this universe is fractal. It is a repetitive pattern of self-referral. You have children and they are a blend of both parents’ DNA – self-referral. Thus, what makes 2032 extremely important, is that it is the Sixth Wave since the last upheaval of the overthrow of the Monarchy.

The Roman Empire peaked with the reign of Marcus Aurelius (161-180AD). We know from Chinese documents that he had even sent an ambassador to China which was the first contact.

However, 6 of the 51.6 waves (which are 6 of the 8.6-year) in turn build in a fractal manner into a 309.6-year wave and then we have 6 waves of that which form 1857.6.  There are then 6 waves of that building into 11,145.6-year waves. About 11,600 years ago (9,600 BC)  was an abrupt period of global warming which accelerated the glacial retreat that was the beginning of the Holocene geological epoch. That is when we begin to find the domestication of sheep and evidence of settlements such as Jericho dating back to 9,600 BC.  That wave was the Mesolithic era which refers to the final period of hunter-gatherer cultures in Europe and Western Asia. This was between the end of the Last Glacial Maximum and the Neolithic Revolution. This is also why in back-testing the ECM, it became very clear that it incorporates nature and the swings back and forth on climate change.

There is the period of the Megalithic Monuments in Europe. We do not know why these Neolithic and Copper Age creators were motivated to expend such energy in their creation. Some of these structures appear to have been graves. The sheer weight of the stones shows a very determined culture whose motives are lost to the haze of the period we refer to as prehistory.

Recent studies have implied that these megalithic monuments across Europe originated in northwest France, and the practice of building them spread along the continent’s coastlines in several migratory waves. They first appeared during the second half of the fifth millennium BC. That was about 4300 years before the invention of coinage.

The oldest known city dates back to 6700BC, Catal Huyuk, located in modern Turkey. I have studied the economy of this period. It has all the trappings of modern-day civilization. There are houses with murals on the walls. This confirmed that there was an artist trade. There were a lot of female deities found so there was some artistic trade that carved these out of marble as well as clay. There was no indication of money being used so it was most likely a barter-based society with some people making tools and others growing crops.

Food was money in the shape of olives, dates, seeds, or animals and we also know that financing, lending for interest, dates back to c. 5000 BC, if not even earlier. The fall of Rome prompted the return of the Sin of Usury – denial of interest. Much of the blame for the fall of Rome was attributed to corruption of that sort. Capitalism is born with the Protestant Reformation which allowed Christians to earn money from interest. Martin Luther was funded by Christians who wanted to get into the banking field which had been restricted to the Jews.

What we do see at these events is typically it is a knee-jerk reaction to whatever was in place, the reaction is in the opposite direction. We have gone through a revolution against Monarchy. That led to Republicanism. This time perhaps we move toward Democracy. We should have the right to vote  – do we go to war – Yes or No! Some Neocons should not make that decision and then we are imprisoned and called a traitor if you do not die on some battlefield that they decide should take place. This is not any different than Monarchy where King Louis XIV (1643-1715) lamented on his deathbed – “I have been too fond of war.” These people play a sport with the common people as the pawns on the chessboard.

Mar 18 2023

Chaos & the Secret Order to Everything


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Economics is the ONLY field where cycles are denied. Moreover, people do not even comprehend how COMPLEXITY emerges. Alan Turing was a brilliant mathematician who is probably the father of computers for he built the really first computer to break the German Enigma Machine. The man was Alan Turing. He invented the computer and broke the German Enigma Code. You can watch the movie The Imitation Game to get a general idea of his achievement.

But Turing did something even far more astonishing. He had a theory that within nature, what appears to be chaos was just a mask that hides a natural order. He was the first to think that there might be a mathematical order that defines nature. There is a mysterious aspect of Morphogenesis. All the cells in an embryo are identical. Then the cells begin to clump together and actually become different from each other. The mystery was how identical cells know to form different things such as skin, eyes, brain, or bone. There is no central command center.

Turing 1952 Morphogenesis

The phenomenon of Morphogenesis is what is the essence of mystery. This process becomes self-organization. Before Turning, absolutely nobody had any idea of how this process even worked. It was also a great mystery of life itself. It was Turning who published on March 15th, 1952, the Ides of March 3.14, his mathematical explanation of Morphogenesis. Turning’s formula was revealing for it uncovered a secret order behind the mask of chaos. Despite being one of the most brilliant minds ever and all his contributions even breaking the German code, because he was a homosexual, a judge order him to prison or subject him to hormone injections to cure him. He committed suicide on June 7th, 1954 because of the abuse of the government which ignored all his contributions.

What Turning discovered in nature, was that there is a hidden order in which identical cells then change and become specific parts of the end result without any specific coding. What would appear to be simplistic formulas, suddenly emerged into a complexity that baffled the human mind. This is what I discovered in economics. A secret cycle that defines the complexity which we also cannot see with the naked eye.

This is why different cycles unfold in all the sectors such as metals, commodities, share markets, currency, bonds, etc, and when they align that is when we get the superposition events. I will explain more in my forthcoming book on the Economic Confidence Model. One bubble will be in the real estate markets, such as 1792 and 2007-2009. Other bubbles took place in commodities such as in 1919. Still, others took place in currency markets and capital concentration such as the 1989 peak in the Nikkei in Japan or the 1929 bubble in the USA.

In 2020, we warned that this cycle would be a debt crisis wave, but also a commodity wave with rising inflation and interest rates into 2024. We must understand that each bubble is different for it all depends upon the cyclical aspect of that particular sector and does that line up with others to produce a super-wave that becomes the bubble.

Right now, we have a crisis in banking because far too many banks have just listened to the mainstream media and failed to understand that interest rates would be rising – not declining. Since 2020 we have been warning that interest rates were at a 5,000-year low. A simple bounce to just 5% would be devastating. Many banks attend our conferences because they are sophisticated and do not make hedging decisions based on the latest headline on MSNBC.

I am working hard on having Socrates articulate the complexity. I hope to roll this out this year – ASAP. My personal interpretation is generally on point, but not always. What looked to be dominated by geopolitical events in April, appears to be combined with the banking crisis, and in all honestly, I could not imagine that the FDIC even considered not covering 85% of the deposits. I should not have had to even explain that doing that would mean that small businesses have systemic risk in all banks. I actually had to explain there would be a major banking crisis in April that would make the Great Depression appear like a dress rehearsal.

As such, this banking crisis does not appear to be finished. It will still move into April 10th or so. Then the ICC issued a criminal indictment for Putin when they have no such jurisdiction by their own authority. They have become yet another political tool of the Neocons determined to create World War III.

We have entered the period of COMPLEXITY where we are not looking at a single sector in a bubble. We are looking at a really dangerous contagion of COMPLEXITY and the Neocons could care less about the economics. They have control of the White House and this is their chance and they are NOT backing down.

God help humanity!

Mar 3 2023

2032 & the Real Great Reset


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty; A lot of people are concerned that you may just say the hell with it all and move to your island in the Caribbean. A lot of us always stood by you and many more are joining the ranks. There are so many who claim to be brilliant analysts but it is just their opinion. Following their work does not help clarify anything and many have been touting the rise of gold and the demise of the dollar for years like a broken record. It is incomprehensible how they are still in business. This is the time you were born for. Your analysis is not opinion and we can all look at the arrays and see what is coming.

As you always say, we are all in this together. That also means we need you now more than ever to sort out the truth from fiction. Don’t lose your faith. After 2032, the world will open its eyes to all your forecasts and listen for the real great reset. So many people plagiarize your work pretending it is theirs. Schwab is just another such lowlife. A blind man can see his Great Reset is your 2032.

Jim

ANSWER: I appreciate what you say. It is hard at times to have been looking at the model all these years staring at these forecasts for a war that would begin in 2014 and then living through them. Never in my wildest dreams did I ever expect personally that the West would be the aggressor. Now I can see Neocons, who I even personally have known, are really in control of the Biden Administration.

It has been a serious problem with forecasting from a personal opinion perspective – it is impossible! Thankfully, we have Socrates and its impartiality has guided us through these times. Personally, I would never have expected any American administration to surrender our foreign policy to these Neocons who want nothing but war. Kennedy, Nic, and even Reagan all stood tall against them. Biden is just a corrupt politician who is senile on top of it.

Throughout the mid-Nineties, I confess I helped Bill Kristol launch his Weekly Standard. It became the most influential magazine in Washington. It was funded initially by Murdock. I took the back cover all the time during at least 1996 and ran a series of advertisements pushing serious economic questions to the forefront. I had even testified before the House Ways & Means Committee on taxation. I shuttled back and forth between the Chairman of that committee, Bill Archer, and the Majority Leader Dick Army who was supporting the Flat Tax. I even debated Steve Forbes at Princeton University on the subject of taxation. I also would write OpEds for the Wall Street Journal. I was asked to redesign Social Security. I worked on transforming Social Security into a wealth fund for the nation. I tried very hard to defeat my own model. I always lost. I could not prevent what it has been forecasting these decades.

I know people have plagiarized our reports and forecasts pretending it has been their opinions. The problem that will expose them will emerge when the unexpected unfolds as Socrates has been forecasting. Only Socrates forecast in 2013, one year in advance, that Ukraine would be the hot spot. We have warned this was where World War III would begin. I warned in 2014 that Ukraine should have been divided according to language. The Minsk Agreement of 2015 was a step in the right direction to avoid war. Only Socrates has forecast this war and the duplicity of Merkel and others has placed the fate of the world in crisis mode. I have put forth a way to avoid this, but I could not make that happen – so much for the influence the bankers have attributed to me.

During the 14th century, there were warnings in the form of rumors that told of a great plague in China and India that killed most of the populations there. The plague made its way to Europe when the Kipchak forces were besieging the Genoese trading post in Crimea. The Kipchaks began to catapult plague-infested corpses over the walls and into the trading post. The disease spread quickly and the Genoese abandoned the outpost. They sailed back to Europe stopping in Sicily in 1347 taking the Black Death with them.

Crimea has been the center of historical events for centuries, yet nobody seems to pay much attention to it. It has been settled, resettled, occupied, defended, and invaded perhaps more times than most countries and over a far greater period of time than most countries have ever existed. Coinage in Crimea predates even Russia and Ukraine never existed as a country before it broke away from the USSR in 1991.

So from a pure data perspective, what is taking place is nothing new to history. This is all in a database that monitors one action and works out the path of reaction, kind of like plotting the path of a hurricane. When you have a long historical database, that is the ONLY way to forecast that Ukraine would be the place where World War III begins. Such things can not be accomplished from a personal “opinion” perspective years in advance even before the 2014 Revolution in Ukraine.

I know Schwab’s Great Reset is our 2032. He is just trying to push the collapse in his direction of totalitarianism. He too will fail just as I have failed to prevent this forecast from unfolding. At the very least, everyone understands, this is NOT my personal opinion or forecast. This is Socrates’ – not me!

Feb 28 2023

Model & the 1991 Collapse of USSR


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Feb 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, I remember your 1991 conference when you said Russia looked like it would collapse by the end of the year. I think it was December 31st when Gorbachev resigned. But I also remember how we were talking about how key reversals were still reappearing but migrating to different time levels. You never talk about that today. You had said that the migration of reversals would often hint at the next crash or slingshot. That was what we got in 1991 when Russia collapsed. Do you see anything like that again?

I am glad you are still at this. You have great insight as a trader.

If Scotty wants to beam you up, please say not yet!

DZ

ANSWER: Only for you Dave. Your memory is better than an elephant’s. OMG, how black was my beard. I also had some hair back then. Yes, you are right. I probably have not written here about the strange manner in which markets do move. Yes, the USSR collapse by the end of that year. There was the August 1991 coup against Gorbachev.

The Quarterly Array back then picked the 4th quarter of 1991 and the 4th quarter of 1992. The first was a Panic breakout to the upside and the second was a Panic to the downside making the reaction low the week of October 10th, 1992. The reversals were clearly fractal in nature and key reversals will reappear and migrate through the various time levels. That was something which was very fascinating. I promise I will find the time to express more detail on that phenomenon. It was indeed another aspect that the model revealed that I never expected. There is such a hidden order that lies behind the mask of randomness.

People who talk about random walks are simply incapable of forecasting for they cannot see the order behind what they think is chaos. Just as Einstein said, he cannot believe that God plays dice with the universe. I discovered the same thing when it comes to market activity. There is no such thing as random walks. There is a secret order to everything.

When I went to economics class, they said there was a business cycle but it is not regular and cannot be predicted because it was random. Then I went to physics class and they said nothing is random. I came to the conclusion someone was lying. It turned out to be the economics professor. Larry Summers still maintains that view. Hence, economists can manipulate society if it is random – not predetermined.

In plotting what Lorenz thought was random weather data, what emerged was a hidden order that we could not see otherwise. This even disproves the entire nonsense of Climate Change. It has always changed and there is a pattern to the movement – it is not random and we have not altered the climate cycle. Again, it is the same type of people who cannot see the patterns in markets so they say it is a random walk.

I ran markets through our Chaos models and patterns of regularity emerged – not random walks. Again, there is far more order to markets and that is why personal opinions will never cut it when we are trying to forecast the future.

I have on my bucket list to do the next book on the ECM – my gift to posterity. Hopefully, one-day people will wake up and understand that there is a hidden order to everything – NOTHING is ever random. When the USSR collapsed, the capital again fled to the USA in the face of a new level of uncertainty. The New Yorker ran the article on me in 2009 and called it  – The Secret Cycle.