Armstrong Economics Blog/Reports and DVDs
Posted Dec 10, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT #1: Hi, Marty if you can, let the readers know if the “mother of all financial crisis” is the big bang.
N
COMMENT #2: Wow. I am left speechless. I think your title Repo Crisis is misleading. This is just the staging ground. It takes someone in the international arena to understand the implications of this going forward.
Thanks for making this an updating service.
Bill
REPLY: Perhaps I should have named this report “The Mother of all Financial Crises.” The Repo Crisis is just part II in the lead-up to Big Bang that nobody seems to grasp is already unfolding. This is the Sovereign Debt Crisis on steroids. Whatever they could have done wrong, they have done with absolute precision. The projected losses for institutions I have laid out will range from 40% to 60% of assets. This time, whoever is caught holding will not be bailed out this time around. This is the combination of the 1998 Liquidity Crisis and the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis. So hang on to whatever you can grab ahold of. You will need it for this one.
Where to Go?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion
Re-Posted Dec 10, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hi Mr Armstrong,
I have been a subscriber for several years and I appreciate your work. You mentioned that when the dust settles there will be pockets in the US that are safe. Can you elaborate where they will be? Also if your child was planing on majoring in finance in college next year, would you steer them away or have them specialize in something like forensics since there will be a mess to sort out? Or would you steer them to a different major or no college at all?
Thanks again for everything you do
BV
ANSWER: It is still too early to forecast which areas will be best specifically. In general, the major regions will be split politically between left and right. There will be stark differences politically between California v Texas and Florida for example. You certainly do not want to be in any state that is out of control with respect to taxes and police abuse. Most people would never guess, but the state that abuses the law the most is Iowa. The percentage of drivers who have been given speeding tickets is 23.2%. That is a stunning percentage of the population. Indeed, Iowa wrote 148,755 tickets in 2016, which was a lot given the population compared to 712,000 tickets written by New York. Additional states where the percentage of people who have been given speeding tickets over 20% are Wisconsin (20.2%), Ohio (20.5%), Nebraska (20.8%), Wyoming (21.3%), South Carolina (22.7%), and North Dakota (23.1%).
We have states that have been funding themselves with traffic fines for all sorts of things. A friend’s wife was ticketed for looking at Google maps on her phone while at a red light. She went to court to prove she was not texting. The judge ruled for the state, as they are instructed to do, and fined her by saying she is not even allowed to look at he phone. So if she had a paper map, that would have been OK. So this is what we call legal persecution for monetary gain.
The Hunt for Money – No Amount is Too Small
Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes
Re-Posted Dec 10, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT:
You may already know this but in case you don’t: this is a prime example of the ‘war on cash’.:
Yesterday I walked into my sisters bank (Santander) in the local town in England, a quite affluent town not somewhere deprived. I handed over and politely asked to deposit a mere £200 (that’s two hundred) and I was told: ‘You cant do that anymore because of government regulations, you cant deposit cash into someone else’s bank account no matter how small.’ I was told it has been in place since last April!.
That should be a wake up call for a lot of people but most people don’t know, it hasn’t been discussed publicly anywhere at all, only bank employees seem to know about it.
How long before they do an India and get rid of popular notes overnight without telling anyone?
HO’N
REPLY: I tried to buy a cash card to send to a friend and was told I cannot do that. They would sell me a card only in my name. Governments are hunting cash on every level right down to the smallest amount. It is also ILLEGAL to mail cash in the United States.
The Mother of all Financial Crises
Armstrong Economics Blog/Reports and DVDs
Re-Posted Dec 9, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Sir,
While taking a break from reading the Repo Report, I came across these words written by Albert Einstein before he passed away
“Not one statesman in a position of responsibility has dared to pursue the only course that holds out any promise of peace…” he wrote. “For a statesman to follow such a course would be tantamount to political suicide. Political passions, once they have been fanned into flame, exact their victims.”
I fear we are going to crash and burn as you have said
Keep up the good work
DK
REPLY: That is a very good quote. It is so true. All the disinformation circulating around about this Repo Crisis one must question can they really be that stupid? This is really the Mother of all Financial Crises which will impact everything it touches. This will make the 2007-2009 financial crisis look like a trial run.There is no politician who will stand up and talk about this crisis nor will they dare to even ask pertinent questions for fear what will be revealed.
This is why this report does not end with this report alone. We will update it next year as everything unfolds. So it is more like a subscription to this catastrophe.
European Banks to be Prohibited from Dealing in Repo?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates
Re-Posted Dec 5, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr Armstrong,
I have great respect for your work.
Can you explain how the Fed’s QE fits into the cycle of things. It seems to me that their interference in the markets is disrupting/altering the cycle. For example, the latest Fed purchases of T-bills every month in the amount of $60.
Who are they buying from? I assume Inv Banks, Comm Banks and hedge funds, and now these entities, instead of having low yielding bills on their books have zero coupon cash, which they then seek yield and put into the shares markets. It seems pretty clear and appears to extends the cycle. Can money printing just cause the 8.6 yr cycle for instance to extend to say a harmonic of that, 17.2 or 25. 8?
ANSWER: No. The Repo Crisis is on time. Our forecast for the start of the Liquidity Crisis was after Labor Day in September. The Fed is trying to prevent short-term rates from rising. They are not engaging in Quantitative Easing for the sake of “stimulating” the economy.
Things are getting bad and the rumor behind the curtain is that European banks will be prohibited from participating in repo for year-end. That is how bad things are getting.
So the cycle appears to be coming on time. All the implications are far too great to cover in a blog, which is why I have created a a report on the repo crisis that is around 150 pages
Socrates Project – Best Kept Secret
Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates
Re-Posted Dec 4, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty; A friend of mine is an analyst at one of the major banks in New York. He said they are not allowed to forecast some things as you said. He used to work for a European bank and did say it was much worse. He said everyone who is anyone reads you. He also said that none of the mainstream media will ever report on Socrates because you will put all analysis out of business. Is this why you intend to go public?
Thanks so much for your insight in creating Socrates.
MH
ANSWER: Mainstream press in the USA has never been interested in really covering our analysis. They are not interested in reporting that a computer can actually write reports and forecast the entire world. You have to understand, we remain the best-kept secret. Even when Nigel Farage was our guest speaker in Rome, he said he had to come after we forecast BREXIT. Now, not a single British newspaper ever reported our forecast before or after. Nonetheless, those in power and in strategic institutions and corporations, all know what our forecasts were. So it is an interesting paradox. We are the best-read, but the most under-reported.
Nobody wants to report there is a computer that forecasts the world for it at the same time exposes the true trend of the economy and all the interconnections, including climate change. In the summer when the Inverted Yield Curve was taking place, all the newspapers were forecasting Trump would lose because the economy was headed into a recession. That was their typical biased war against Trump. Our model showed there would be a moderate decline in the expansion into the ECM for January, but that we did not see a major correction or a major recession.
These types of forecasts are not luck nor are they based upon what “I think” for we are all human and thus we are subject to making mistakes. We need a dispassionate analysis of a computer to provide an objective outlook. People keep trying to compete with me personally which is often quite funny to me.
Socrates will only be recognized when (1) we go public, and (2) after my death. That is just how things work. Even in the Bible, Jesus said that a prophet has no honor or is recognized in his own country’ (John 4:44). That is the way it has ALWAYS been in every field. Not exactly sure why it is that way. It just is! I have always been covered more by the press outside the USA than inside.
Premiere of The Forum (Davos)
Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion
Re-Posted Dec 3, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
I attended the premiere of The Forum last night and got to meet those “elite” they spin such conspiracy theories about. Putin will be the keynote speaker at the next session in 2020. Interestingly, the film will be released to the general public on the turning point of the ECM – January 18th, 2020.
Most people have no idea that the World Economic Forum, which Nigel Farage said our World Economic Conference is the alternative, is more like a convention. They employ 800 people and they try to stand politically in between. It was founded by Klaus (Charles) Schwab.
Klaus’ vision was to create a forum where world leaders can meet each other and create a bond. The conspiracy theories that paint these meetings as the place where they decide what the world will do for the next year is really nonsense. These people are not in control of anything and as the world turned nuts in 2019, the leaders of Germany, France, and the US all declined to attend.
It began with the model being the Chamber of Commerce meeting in the United States. Klaus took it one step further and tried to bring business and government together. As events unfolded, it grew into an annual meeting which then people wanted to be seen as being apart of it.
The film is the first to show the behind the scenes of Davos.
Legarde & Green Bonds
Armstrong Economics Blog/Europe’s Economic History
Re-Posted Dec 2, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty; Why is Legarde pitching Euro Green Bonds when they lose money?
JL
ANSWER: If she can use the climate change nonsense to shame Germany into agreeing to issue Eurobonds, it would be a step to eliminate the refusal to issue a single European debt. If Legarde can sell that issue, then it will restructure Europe’s debt position
Davos the Film Entitled “The Forum”
Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion
Re-Posted Nov 29, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Repo Crisis – Best Kept Secret Ever!
Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates
Re-Posted Nov 29, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty; I want to thank you for a great conference. It is clear you are the only true institutional adviser. Our board is very impressed. The FT reported that there is still no single factor that caused the dislocations in the repo market in mid-September. You are the only one who explains the event authoritative.
Thanks
JG
ANSWER: Nobody will talk publicly. Everyone is scared to death of starting a panic. This is the BEST kept secret I have ever seen in my career. The real test comes at year-end when banks typically step back from the repo market so that their balance sheets are smaller for December 31 regulatory calculations. We will see what really happens then on the chaos scale of 1 to 10. I find it really funny how there are articles calling it the new QE to where the Fed is clandestinely buying T-Bills through repo. This really seems to be an orchestrated effort at disinformation. It is hard to say if the people who make this up are deliberate agents of the government hired to keep people looking in the wrong direction.
Centinel2012 