Tag Archives: TPP

Oct 25 2018

Why Has the USA been “Pinnacle of Global Success”


Armstrong Economics Blog/America’s Economic History

Re-Posted Oct 25, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

To the shock of everyone in politics and economics who can’t get enough socialism and want to bash that the disparity of income is so evil, these Marxists are beside themselves when the World Economic Forum released a study that shows the United States is the most competitive nation on earth. They have, however, concluded that their international economic index which finds America at the “pinnacle of global success”  cannot be attributed to the actions of any one leader or administration. Indeed, people fled Europe to American to get away from bureaucracy. This remains reflected in attitudes.

A majority of Europeans (58%) would prefer to work as an employee rather than risk starting their own business. The promises of pensions and the social state have created a vast economic different picture between Europe and America and in Asia, we see a trend that is beginning to surpass the United States. This contrasts starkly with attitudes in the United States, where a majority (51%) say they would prefer to strike out alone. The United States allowed the property to be owned whereas in Europe the title to the property remains fixed in most of London and is leased out for 100 years where people pay the value as if they had purchased the property, to begin with. Property in London that was “freehold” was rather rare. Many fled to America which was the land of opportunity to actually own property, build wealth, and leave it to your family.

Then rushes in the Marxists. They hate people inheriting wealth and call it unfair. Every generation should start at zero in their mind. Then we have the economists who argue that it is the disparity in income that suppresses the economy in Europe. So what is their solution? Regulate everything excessively and take the wealth away from those who have it and pretend you are handing it to the people if anything is left once they government gets its hands on it for their own lavish pension schemes.

The United States is the venture-capital capital of the world. That will soon be displaced by China. Nevertheless, how to actually measure entrepreneurship is a very distorted view of the economy. One popular approach among economists which overlooks the depth of a nation’s economy is to count how many new businesses with paid employees start up each year, then divide them by the number of companies that are already up and running. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), calls this percentage the “employer enterprise birth rate.” Others just call it the “start-up rate”.

From this distorted perspective, the United States scores fairly low on that definition coming in second to last when looking at the years 2007 through 2009 during the crash. The glaring flaw in this view is the fact that in the economies which are least developed come out on top, which was Slovakia and Mexico. The United States was predominantly small business also before the Industrial Revolution. Creating criteria of this nature are extremely misleading. Also, the period in question saw many young individuals start out on their own unable to find jobs with their costly degrees. They entered the self-employment segment but were not hiring people. They were breaking out and doing work in various services.

The greatest economic growth follows the LOWEST taxes, developed economies, and lower regulation. When the government attacks all three areas, our computer simply shows that economic growth declines.

Oct 23 2018

Wow – The Bloom is Really Off The Ruse…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree house on October 23, 2018 by

When I watched this earlier today I noticed something was odd; the background sound and the responses from the visible audience don’t align with the visual as presented.

Watch. When President Obama is speaking there’s almost no visible reaction; but something more…  LISTEN !  There’s almost no audible audience response… it just seems weird.

.

The media have always covered for the Manchurian lightbringer, so we knew something was off when we first watched the Obama presentation. Thanks to twitter video we now know what that something was:

Rosie Memos @almostjingo

There’s almost no-one there.

It’s the Obama Potemkin village again; only this time in Nevada.

Meanwhile in Texas….

Oct 21 2018

The End of Britain with 2nd Referendum on BREXIT?


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Oct 21, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

As many as 670,000 people protested in London to call for a second Brexit referendum. Our computer is showing that a second referendum will vote to remain but this is most likely because they will rig the vote. This is in conflict with our economic model which shows that BREXIT should still win. Keep in mind that we have crossed the Rubicon in politics here in 2018. The chances of any election actually being honest and fair is highly unlikely.

 

 

Of course, these people are just brainwashed. They are completely ignorant of the fact that remaining in the EU will be the death of Britain. They listen to the likes of Tony Blair and other politicians who get huge pensions from the EU. These protesters are really too stupid to understand what they are protesting for and they are just pawns in a game for corrupt politicians. The economic growth of Britain has steadily declined ever since joining the EU. We have provided this chart to the British press and politicians but not a single person has made this chart public. But worse still, Britain is resented in the EU because without Britain Europe would have been lost to both Hitler as well as Napoleon. Without Britain, Europe would never be free. Many resent that they owe everything to Britain.

All the history aside, any trade deal can only be subjected to a veto of 28 member states. Britain cannot reach a trade deal on its own terms with anyone for they can be stopped by the raising of just one hand. Britain will also see its financial market destroyed for Brussels wants to be able to outlaw short-selling to protect the Euro by decree when the free markets go against them. On top of that, the ECB has destroyed the European bond market and that is just starting to bubble to the surface as rates are rising in Southern Europe.

On top of that, Britain loses just about every court ruling in the European Court. And as for migrants, the number one name in Britain among newborns has been Muhammed.

 

 

The British pound had really been just a unit-of-account prior to 1489. It was literally one pound of “sterling” silver .925 fine. The first one-pound coin appeared in gold and was issued in 1489 by Henry VII. The risk that the British pound will no longer exit arrives in 2029

Oct 19 2018

China & the Hidden Debt Crisis in the Provinces


Armstrong Economics Blog/China

RE-Posted Oct 19, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The Sovereign Debt Crisis in China among the provisional governments is alive and well. The off-balance sheet government liabilities in the regions amounted to an estimated 40 trillion yuan which is almost $6 trillion. Some are calling this a “gigantic credit risk” which is a hidden liability. This represents 60% of  GDP which bypasses the debt-to-GDP ratio set by the central government on the provinces. They have created financial vehicles called LGFVs. Beijing has focused on shadow banks, regulatory loopholes, and hidden bad loans. They have curbed the shadow banking and brought the BitCoin outflow down. However, the Beijing government has only been able to reduce the credit risks associated with LGFVs marginally. The current view is that it will take China up to a decade or more to deal with the problem of LGFVs, as we enter this debt crisis cycle between 2019 and 2021, the pressure will build much sooner.

Nevertheless, we see that this debt crisis is what is holding back China short-term. Once this adjustment is addressed, we will still see China emerge as the Financial Capital of the World after 2032.

Oct 16 2018

What is Wrong with Formal Education


Armstrong Economics Blog/Education

Re-Posted Oct 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I too am French and nobody in school ever connected the weather to the defeat of Napoleon even with so many deaths on his failed invasion of Russia. History is interesting, but it seems to be taught based upon some political agenda. What would you recommend for students to study since the formal education system is such a failure?

PG

ANSWER: Yes, when I was in Paris, I was asked if I would debate the top three economic students. I agreed. However, instead of a confrontation for TV viewers, it turned out to be a question session of how to fix the French economy conceding that what they were being taught was wrong.

From a historical viewpoint, I always refer to contemporary writers. However, you must keep in mind that history is very often written only by the victor. We all learn quite a lot about history in school, but it is typically slanted. Nevertheless, it is also true that who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it. However, those of us who know history are also doomed to watch others repeat it. Ever since man has done anything, there has been someone nearby going “huh, maybe I should write this down.”

The way to understand the past REQUIRES a discipline that embraces all the fields of science. Back in the 1980s, I attended a lecture by a Scientist on the findings of the ice core samples from Greenland. When they disp[layed a graf of the energy output of the sun and documented from the ice core samples, I was stunned. I approached the presenter and informed them that their chart projected the rise and fall of empires which matched the Economic Confidence Model.

Back in the 1980s, I knew the model worked, but I could not explain why other than simply saying there were cycles. Suddenly, I saw history impacted by weather. I knew the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake set off the Panic of 1907 due to capital flows and that led to the creation of the Federal Reserves with all its branches that operated independently to manage the capital flows internally within the nation.

By keeping an open mind, I began to look at every field of science for explanations. By putting everything together, the picture became focused and suddenly the light went off. The key is being a diverse explorer. School is the opposite. I would go to Physics class and the professor would say nothing is random. Einstein said he did not believe God played dice with the universe. I then went to economics class and the professor said everything is random so don’t bother trying to forecast something. Because it’s random, that meant government could and should manipulate society to eliminate recessions. They have not succeeded in doing so even once.

Oct 15 2018

Merkel’s Conservative Lose Absolute Majority in Bavaria


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Oct 15, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

It is really mindblowing how politicians simply refuse to admit a mistake with the refugees and reverse course. Merkel has dug in her heels in over this issue and it is just not going to get better. From the outset, I warned that in an economic decline, the last thing you do is accept immigrants. This is not my opinion – it is just patterns from the past. That similar event of immigrants coming in during an economic decline led to street battles in the USA when it was just the Irish during the 1840 Great Depression and Sovereign Debt Crisis. History repeats for the same stupid decisions time and again. Merkel has set the stage for violence in Europe and political discontent that threatens to undermine the entire EU projected.

In a further erosion of Germany’s political mainstream is clearly underway. The Bavarian conservative party, the CSU, has lost its absolute majority. Meanwhile, the Greens have become the second-largest political force in southern Germany. Additionally, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis continues to brew. European officials are back in the spotlight recently as the debt crisis in Italy has cast Europe directly in the eye of the storm. The loss of the CSU in Germany is undermining the survivability of Merkel. With her demise, we will also see the collapse of the Euro.

Oct 15 2018

The ECB on the Verge of Collapse?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks

Re-Posted Oct 15, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) will NOT aid Italy with an EU rescue program if the country or its banks are in financial turmoil. The Italian government is taking the view that Italy has become an “occupied” country and that Germany has conquered Europe imposing austerity and its view of inflation upon the whole of Europe without firing a shot. While the spin is that the ECB is making Italy a test case to demonstrate that Europe and its mechanisms work, in reality, it is a realization that the ECB cannot save Italy’s financial institutions because austerity has created the greatest economic depression perhaps in economic history.

The new five-star Movement in Rome and Lega have been on a confrontational course with the EU Commission, as they plan a higher level of new debt to fulfill election promises. The EU Commission, on the other hand, is calling for less spending and the implementation of austerity as demanded by Germany. Italy is already sitting on a debt of around 131% of GDP. The financial markets are nervous for they see a confrontation that could tear Europe apart at the seams. Italy now has to offer investors significantly higher interest rates when placing its government bonds in order to raise money. In addition, the gap to the yield of German government bonds widened. But in reality, stopping the ECB’s Quantitative Easing will result in interest rates rising by at least 300% very rapidly. Italy is getting ahead of the curve BEFORE everything comes crashing down.

The EU rules prohibit the ECB from helping a country unless it has agreed to a rescue program of EU partners. Then, for example, the Euro-watchdogs could buy up Italian government bonds in order to contain a rise in yields. This provides for a monetary policy emergency tool adopted in 2012 – called “OMT”. However, this has never been used before. The ECB, behind the curtain, fears that if they try to use this mechanism and it fails, as our model warns, then the CONFIDENCE in the entire EU system will collapse.

Oct 15 2018

Australia Turning Really Authoritative? Is this How a Dark Age Begins?


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted Oct 15, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The greed of governments in their pursuit of money is the single greatest threat to creating a Dark Age. With New Zealand imposing a $5,000 fine for just landing there and you refuse to hand over your pen and passwords to your phone for them to search, now we have Australia going really nuts to the point that they risk tech companies simply banning the sale of their products in the country. The Assistance and Access Bill 2018 in Australia will force Google, Apple, Facebook, and other technology groups to help Australian authorities decode certain forms of encrypted communications on their systems, or face fines of up to AU$10 million. The government says the legislation will help protect against terrorism, fraud and child abuse crimes, claiming it aims to ensure criminals “have no place to hide.”

The problem that arises that failure to pay taxes they also call criminal. Hence, the hunt for money is greatly aided by this type of legislation far more than any other pretend criminal activity. While the government has stopped short of demanding backdoor access to tech companies’ systems that would allow the government to tap into end-to-end encryption services such as WhatsApp, it does demand access to data at “points where it is not encrypted.”

Apple, FOR INSTANCE,  would not be made to create a backdoor for their iMessage where every user’s encryption key is different. But the government could request access to the single encryption key for its iCloud services. When you send a message to a friend, it’s encrypted as it travels between the two devices, and when it arrives, it’s decrypted for your friend to read, which is when the government should get to read it. The Australian government is cleverly demanding not a backdoor, but a “side door” to gain access to whatever people are sending.

Naturally, the cybersecurity minister claims this will only be allowed under strict guidelines, with companies subject to three levels of escalation: an interception agency requesting the company voluntarily assist; a “Technical Assistance Notice” whereby the companies are instructed to help; and a “Technical Capability Notice”, which can only be issued by the attorney-general and basically means “comply or face a fine.” However, such promises from governments are really worthless. They always go beyond their claims of restraint.

Apple has filed a complaint stating that the Australian government previously stated that they would not to weaken encryption or compel providers to build systemic weaknesses into their products for that would undermine the entire internet and bring commerce to a halt. Apple has made it clear that this legislation poses serious risks:

  • Overly broad powers that could weaken cybersecurity and encryption
  • A lack of appropriate independent judicial oversight
  • Technical requirements based only on the government’s subjective view of reasonableness and practicability
  • Unprecedented interception requirements
  • Unnecessarily stifling secrecy mandates
  • Extraterritoriality and global impact

Governments are in serious trouble and they will be raising taxes dramatically before they ever dare try to reform. In 2016, Apple fought back when the FBI attempted to compel Apple to unlock the San Bernardino shooter’s iPhone. Creating backdoors means that sophisticated hackers will discover them and exploit them faster than you can blink an eye. There is a profound risk of bringing down the entire digital e-commerce world and you are looking at the destruction of the entire world economy. Apple has come out and stated that this bill is still unfit for today’s world. Governments around the world have to realize that their greed can topple our very way of life

Oct 14 2018

It Ain’t Interest Rates – It’s the Elections Stupid!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates

Re-Posted Oct 14, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Jeff Bezos of Amazon loses about $80 million for every dollar the stock goes down.  No billionaire was hit as hard by the drop this week in the share market than Jeff Bezos. During the Wednesday selloff alone, the Amazon founder and CEO lost more than $9 billion. This is how they measure people’s worth by the value of shares they hold which is NOT cash. If he ever tried to sell everything, the share price would also crash. At the peak, his net worth reached $160 billion, according to Forbes.

 

The Bloomberg Billionaires Index shows Bezos total net worth is $145 billion, comfortably ahead of Bill Gates, who sits second at $96.3 billion. Gates lost more than $2 billion, while Warren Buffett lost nearly $4.5 billion. When we look at the Arrays, the week coming up as a key target has nothing to do with interest rates – it’s the elections STUPID

Oct 14 2018

Currency War – The Misguided Understanding of the FOREX Markets


Armstrong Economics Blog/Foreign Exchange

Re-Posted Oct 14, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

While the IMF chief Christine Lagarde has come out expressing her fear that not only a trade but also a currency war may emerge that could dampen the growth of the global economy, there are some serious issues that need to be addressed.  The problem with misunderstanding currency and its role in the floating exchange rate system can easily engulf even bystanders in this clash of the titans – US v China.

 

The background behind the smoldering trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies, the US and China, demonstrates that there are serious misconceptions of the role of currency. President Donald Trump has fanned these flames for he too fails to understand the FOREX markets. Trump accuses China of unfair trading practices and theft of intellectual property. The People’s Republic is also accused of devaluing its currency against the dollar, which tends to widen the already high US trade deficit.

 

The dollar has been rallying against the yuan since the March low here in 2018. Clearly, the dollar is going to rise further for a trade war will hurt China more so than the USA. While we see critical turning points in January and March in 2019 followed by May, we must keep in mind that this pattern of a dollar rally is impacting the entire world. Trump FAILS to understand Capital Flows and his accusations against China is manipulating its currency to beat the USA in trade is NOT justified. Our models are showing the capital flight from China but also from Europe overall which contributed to the US share market rally into October basis the Dow Jones Industrials, which foreign capital buys looking always for the trophies.

We have tremendous Panic Cycles throughout 2019 and we see even the yuan is lining up with the targets concerning BREXIT. This is by no means a Chinese manipulation. What we see ahead in 2019 is anything but a nice steady market projection.