Category Armstrong Economics

Jun 12 2023

The True Story of Hyperinflation


Amstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Jun 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,
could you please explain what happens in technical terms from a capital flow perspective, when confidence is lost and hyperinflation starts to begin?
For example Turkey. When Erdogan was elected i think you wrote that ever since the lira started dropping. So confidence in politics is key. Do you think one day we will see hyperinflation in Turkey?
And another example, is Yugoslavia: what caused the hyperinflation (in technical terms/capital flow perspective)? Are foreign investors getting rid of the dinars? Too many dinars than suddenly rushed back into Yugoslavia causing hyperinflation?
Regards,
Magdalena Š.

ANSWER: The misnomer about hyperinflation is that it is caused by printing money. It is a RESPONSE to the collapse in the confidence of the government.  If we look at the 3rd century, this is where we find the greatest number of hoards of ancient coins. What began this was the capture of Valerian I by the Persians in 260AD.

Valerian was the first Roman Emperor to be captured and Rome was unable to recuse him. That shook the confidence of the Roman people, but it also was a signal to the barbarian tribes in the North that if the Persians could do it, they could as well. Within 10 years, Emperor Aurelian constructed the great wall around Rome. Never before did Romans have such a defensive wall. That had a powerful army.

There was a trend toward debasing the silver coinage which began with Nero to try to fund the rebuilding of Rome after the Great Fire. But that did not undermine the confidence in the Roman Monetary System any more than our perpetual deficit spending since World War II.

However, a spark is ignited and suddenly that trend turns into what I have called a Waterfall event in the purchasing power of the currency. Such an event has taken various forms. However, the end result is the collapse in the confidence of the government and as a result, that is when you get that waterfall event.

In the case of Germany, Yugoslavia, Hungary, etc, there was a 1918 Revolution where communists seized power and the emperor of Germany lost power. In that case, they actually asked Russia to take Germany after their revolution in 1917. This was the beginning of the Weimar Republic.

Germany was saddled with reparation payments demanded by France. First, you had a communist revolution and people with capital began to flee to other places in Europe or certainly move their money out of German banks. It was this drain of wealth that forced the Weimar Republic to print money to try to make their reparation payments. Then in December 1922, they seized 10% of everyone’s assets and handed them a bond.

Here you can see that after that December 1922 confiscation, hyperinflation simply took over. It was NOT the printing of money that caused the hyperinflation it was the collapse of confidence FIRST which then compels the government to expand the money supply lacking taxation revenues etc.

I suspect the spark this time may be the Digital Currency and the proposed cancellation of paper currency. This is why people are moving to anything tangible from real estate, gold, silver, ancient coins, and even equities. With DIGITAL CURRENCY they will have capital controls and prevent you from even moving money outside of your country.

The precise day of the ECM was the announcement of the IMF Digital Currency which they intend to replace the US dollar as the reserve currency. This may be timed with the turning point in 2024. It is unlikely that they would cancel paper currencies before the 2024 election. This is all being

Jun 3 2023

The Great Awakening


Armstrong Economic Blog/Disease Re-Posted Jun 2, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Jun 3 2023

Interview: The Fall of Western Civilization


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Jun 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Fall of Western Civilization with Martin Armstrong

Watch the video above or click here to view the latest interview.

Martin Armstrong returns to the Outer Limits of Inner Truth Podcast to discuss: what Socrates is saying about the 2024 election, the likelihood that CBDCs will not succeed based on what happened in Africa, the fall of Western Civilization, where the elites want to take humanity, and how to preserve your liberty in these trying times.

May 19 2023

Ukrainian Ancient Coin brings more than $5 million at Auction Today


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient History Re-Posted May 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Balkck Sea Trade – Tauric Chersonesus, Panticapaeum.

This is probably the finest known Gold Stater (circa 350-300AD) of Panticapaeum, which was the most powerful city in the Tauric Chersonesus with deep involvement in the lucrative Black Sea grain trade for even back then, Ukraine was a major bread-basket in the ancient world as well. This coin is featuring the facing and bearded head of Pan, with the reverse of a Griffin standing left. The griffin type probably alludes to the mythical composite creatures who were believed to guard the gold found in the mountains of Scythia. The Greeks were wonderful storytellers with vivid imaginations.  Herodotus describes the griffins as neighbors to the Arimaspi, a northern people each possessing a single eye in the center of their foreheads, who made constant attempts to steal the gold (4.13.1). Pliny the Elder, who accepted the story at face value, expanded it to note that the griffins made their nests in burrows in the ground which contained gold nuggets and it was these that the Arimaspi tried to take while the griffins were merely defending their eggs and young (HN 7.2, 10.70).

The providence of this coin dates back to Ex F. Schlessinger XI, 1934, and it was sold as the Russian Hermitage duplicates part II, lot 102. It was then sold in the New York XXVII, sale of 2012, where it was featured on the cover. Previously privately purchased from Bank Leu in 1991 in Switzerland. This coin is extremely rare with only a handful known at best. It’s artistic design is considered to be unsurpassed. This is probably the finest known. It sold at auction back in 2012 for $325.000 + 20%

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This coin just sold today in Zurich, Switzerland for 4,400,000 CHF + 20% Commission fee. In US dollars, that is $4,862,787 +20% = $5,834,400. This was about 1500% rise in just about 10 years. In all honesty, I have collected ancient coins since I was probably 12 years old. The field of ancient coins has expanded worldwide with major collectors from China to Russia. This coin was estimated at $1,250,000. The sale continues tomorrow with the Roman. I am truly shellshocked by the prices everything is selling for these days. As I have said, ancient coins are a worldwide market unlike particular national coins which fetch the highest prices in their home country.

May 17 2023

The 37 Year Cycle


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civilization Re-Posted May 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Well, Sports Illustrated just had to join the BudLight Woke Controversy. I suppose they could have put a Transgender on the cover. So it looks like they decided to stop short of that insanity and chose to put Martha Stewart who is 81 on the cover.

Elle McPhearson, known as the Body, really saw her modeling career take off after making the Sports Illustrated magazine’s annual Swimsuit Issue in 1986. She appeared on the cover a record five times: 1986, 1987, 1988, 1994, and 2006. Girls would line up with the hope of following Elle’s career desperately trying to make the cover of Sports Illustrated.

It is curious, but between the 1986 Cover of Elle & 2023 with Martha Stewart, it is shockingly precisely on time. And as for those who will speculate that Elle and I were somehow connected, her father was one of our Australian partners. No, I never dated Elle. The story that circulated in Tokyo was funny but completely exaggerated. Elle began a clothing line and sent me samples of her line of Men’s underway.  That was the extent of that and some were claiming why would she be sending me men’s underwear It was her clothing line. That was it. Not personal shopping for my birthday.

Interestingly, that is an important cycle interval and the fact it is impacting Sports Illustrated is very disturbing. Yes, it was my famous off-the-cuff forecast that Authentic would win the Kentucky Derby back in 2020. It was a long shot, so they said. But It was the third Derby win for the Jockey John Velazquez. Yet Authentic became the first horse to win Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes in 37 years.

It was October 1986 when an agreement was then reached to meet in Reykjavík, Iceland, between Gorbachev and President Reagan limiting nuclear weapons. This October will be 37 years. In January 1987, Gorbachev called for democratization: the infusion of democratic elements such as multi-candidate elections into the Soviet political process. A 1987 conference convened by Soviet economist Leonid Abalkin, a key adviser to Gorbachev, concluded: “Deep transformations in the management of the economy cannot be realized without corresponding changes in the political system.” We are more likely to see the end of that and a turn back to nationalism in Russia as a consequence of this war instigated by the Neocons. That will be in 2024.

This is not looking good at all.  The 5th 309.6-year cycle from the Fall of Rome in 476AD also comes due in 2024. I understand there are people who are trying to promote patriotism to retake the United States and return it to the days when agreements were honored and the Constitution stood for something. I appreciate those sentiments, but unfortunately, our computer says clearly that they will fail for without the PAIN, there is no REFORM = GAIN. Just as I have warned that these dark forces seeking to impose their totalitarian view of government will also fail. Neither side will prevail and we must simply CRASH & BURN and that is required if we are to recreate a new world post-2032.

Real Woman

This WOKENESS is simply part of the strategy to divide and conquer. Keep the people divided and they will not ban together against government. This entire Transgender insanity is very serious. There are only about 1.6 million people in the US who identify as Transgender. The US population is just under 335 million people. This is less than 0.5%. Yet, girls have been denied sports careers and mothers are no longer moths but birthing people. All because 1.6 million want to be called a woman so we can no longer define what is a woman. So those who give birth and reduce to just a birthing person. Again, all of this is to undermine our society and divide it so profoundly to ensure that we will never band together to restore the United States and the original intent of the Constitution.

Gorgeous Thai ladyboys, Pattaya, Thailand. 31.10.2020

In Thailand, the sex-change capital of the world, Ladyboys are very common. They do NOT call themselves “women” but refer to themselves as “ladyboys” and are everywhere. It is no big deal. If you meet a girl, you just ask if they are a ladyboy and they will simply reply yes or no. So why here in the USA do we have to change the definition of a “woman” to accommodate less than half of one percent? I don’t think calling my mother, hey birthing person of mine, has the same ring.

Just as former Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg made clear, Roe v Wade was NEVER about women’s rights – it was about eugenics and reducing the population. This is ALSO behind this entire LGBQT movement to teach children even in 3 grade that they can choose to be LGBQT and push them to even change their gender. This is the same agenda as abortion – reduce the population.

Even more seriously, the climate change agenda. This is all about reducing our standard of living and there is no science behind this because they refuse to look beyond the mid-19th century so they can blame everything on the industrial revolution.

The only way for this Great Reset, which they have taken from our Economic Confidence Model predicting the collapse of our current monetary and political system come 2032, they are hoping to push us into a new age of totalitarianism. Civilization expands with warming periods, and it declines as we head into cold periods and darkness.

Apr 22 2023

INTERVIEW – WORLD WAR 3 IS WHAT “THEY” WANT AND ARE ON TRACK TO GET IT


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Apr 17 2023

Sources


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Apr 16, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You are renowned for your sources. You said the IMF was planning to replace the dollar with its own international digital currency. You targeted Ukraine a year before anyone heard of the country. You said Ukraine was losing the war and they had lost 100,000 troops when people said that was Russian propaganda. That turned out to be classified as Ukrainian information. These Pentagon papers confirm everything you have said a year ago. Israel was reluctant to send anything to Ukraine when everyone said Zelensky was Jewish. The list goes on and on.

My question is, why do you have information from around the world before anyone else?

HP

ANSWER: That is hard to say. I think what has emerged over the decades is that people are sharing information from all over to get a true picture of what is honestly happening. People come to me because I put out the truth. Back when they were forming the Euro, it has come out that the Bundesbank was against it. They were providing all the notes and discussions going on because they also know we have the largest institutional audience of anyone. It is never my opinion. Everyone has opinions and that means nothing. We are well read because it is not my personal opinion. I really cannot address this subject any more than that.

Apr 17 2023

Greg Hunter Interview of Martin Armstrong


Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 16, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Apr 16 2023

Interview: You’re Either In Power or in Prison


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Apr 16, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Click here to listen to my latest interview with Blind Spot: “You’re Either in Power or in Prison.”

Episode Description:

Martin Armstrong pops in to tell us his story, including how he developed his Socrates trading algorithm which predicted the Russian financial crisis of 1998 as well as the details behind the circumstances that found him in contempt of court and thus incarcerated for 11 years. The interview starts about halfway into the podcast.

Apr 6 2023

Tucker Carlson Outlines the Ramification of Trillions in U.S. Treasury Bonds No Longer Needed as Global Securities


Posted originally on the CTH on April 5, 2023 Sundance

For his opening monologue and first interview tonight, Fox News host Tucker Carlson outlined the ramification of non-western nations now trading in alternative currencies to the U.S. dollar.   {Direct Rumble Link Here]  As the dollar diminishes in value, and as an outcome of Biden using U.S. treasury bonds as part of the sanction regime against Russia, various non-western nations now perceive holding dollars as exposing themselves to risk.

Carlson is joined by Luke Gromen who accurately notes the dollar as a global trade currency may continue, but foreign nations holding U.S. treasury bonds as an asset will likely start contracting.  The result of U.S. treasury bonds returning after maturity with no repurchase, would be an inability of the U.S. to borrow against their sale. This could, perhaps likely will, severely diminish the amount of money the U.S. congress can spend.  WATCH:

None of this should come as a surprise to those who have paid attention. Factually, in March of last year, one month after the Russian sanctions were announced, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Deputy Managing Director said the sanctions against Russia are likely to undermine the US dollar’s global dominance as a trade currency.  Everyone could see this coming.

(Inside Paper) – March 2022 – […] “The dollar would remain the major global currency even in that landscape, but fragmentation at a smaller level is certainly quite possible,” Gopinath said in an interview with the Financial Times.  She went on to say that some countries have already begun to renegotiate the currency in which they are paid for trade.

According to Gopinath, the drastic restrictions imposed by Western countries in response to Russia’s military operation in Ukraine may result in the formation of small currency blocs based on trade between individual groups of countries.  Furthermore, the use of currencies other than the dollar or the euro in global trade would result in a further diversification of central banks’ reserve assets. (read more)

The efforts of NATO and the western alliance to crush the Russian currency have failed.  The Russian ruble currency has jumped back from the sanctions and is now even stronger than before the sanctions were put into place.

With China and India supporting ongoing trade with Russia, and with Saudi Arabia responding coldly to the U.S. working on a deal with Iran for nuclear weapons, the geopolitical strategy of NATO, G7 and the proverbial western alliance increasingly looks like it will backfire.

Yellow Team -vs- Gray Team: Remember, China just brokered a deal to lessen hostilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The fulcrum of that agreement was economics.

Meanwhile in North America, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador has said he was not willing to join the energy suicide pact pushed by Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau…. A policy break in the trilateral relationship which suddenly, and not coincidentally, aligns with the timing to make Mexico a pariah to the U.S. vis-a-vis a renewed media push on the drug cartel narrative.

BIG PICTURE NOT BEING DISCUSSED – The western politicians followed the climate change instructions of the WEF multinational corporations and banks (Build Back Better) and post-pandemic immediately started reducing energy development. The central bankers then began raising interest rates to shrink the economies of the same western nations to the scale of the now diminished energy production.

The raising of interest rates is now hitting the national and multinational banks impacted by government policy that was following WEF orders. Now the western politicians are stepping in with the government controlled central banks to backstop the national banks and multinationals. Can you see the dynamic?

Team yellow is suffering the consequences of their own ideological policy as enacted. Team grey is not going to help team yellow get out of a crisis team yellow created, which was intended to hurt team grey.

…. And we continue watching.