Posted originally on Oct 7, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Thank you for all the concern. The last one was not a direct hit—it was just tidal flooding—so I could sleep through the night, as did my dogs and even my neighbor. This one is a direct hit involving wind, rain, and tidal surge. I am evacuating for this one and moving inland. I am moving to a hotel. Hopefully, I will still have internet most of the time.
Posted originally on Sep 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
| Thank you for all the emails about the storm and whether I will be alright. Don’t worry. Biden will never let me die. I pay enough taxes to keep Zelensky’s pockets full. Without my taxes, Zelensky might not be able to repair his place in Miami, or Russia might actually win. I don’t know why the IRS is playing the middleman. We should just be sending our checks to Kiev directly. And, I never dated a girl named Helene, so I don’t fear any retribution.
I took this at 7:30 AM. There was still a little blue-sky.
This one is from 12:45. I will post another before the sun goes down.
The last time, I evacuated and went to Orlando so I could be in the middle of it. Then the FAKE News, all of them, only show the worse possible places. I finally asked a boy who came to work in the hotel if the interstate was clear. He said he had no problem driving to work. I left expecting some flooding, and there was nothing. I got home, and the power never went out. The one before that, CNN said we would have a 10ft wall of water. It turned out to be 6 inches. FAKE news has engulfed everything.
Posted 0riginally on Aug 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT #1: I’ve now been reading your work for close to Twenty Years. I’ve been to numerous conferences. From Philadelphia to San Diego to Orlando and you still amaze me
The me from 10 years ago would have thought the world would collapse on Monday as the media stated. Now I’ve learned(from you) to watch what actually happens instead of trying to predict.
I thank you ?? Regards,
JCL
COMMENT #2: Marty, I have been in these markets for 20+ years. Not as long as you, but long enough to see that a bunch of analysts are all claiming we are heading into a recession without any data. It is clear how many people are looking at your Economic Confidence Model but will never give you credit for anything. That reveals their character.
You are here for a reason.
Take care.
FA
RESPONSE: So many people just make forecasts based on opinion. Mainstream media would NEVER put me on the air because I would contradict their mainstay of putting out propaganda to get you to tune in again and again. Markets are propelled by energy. There is simply a finite level of energy that CAN be exerted in a single direction. It is the pendulum.
The swing down provides the short cover for the rally. Rally to a high, which will cause the energy to decline. NOTHING goes straight up or straight down. The 1987 Crash was the same thing. I said the market bottom was in place the very day of the low. As Larry Edelson said, people thought I was crazy. We called the high, the Crash, but also the low.
Here are our Energy Models. Note how energy was declining to a high, showing that you were running out of steam. Then, energy rose sharply with the decline. But look at the Monday low—the energy was subsiding. I try to teach people how to be an international hedge fund manager at these conferences. This is also why they are making a Hollywood movie about what I have done. They understand that there is a better way to run the world than always trying to manipulate things for self-interest. They are also doing a Documentary, the Forecaster 2024, showing all the forecasts they recorded 10 years ago and how they came true. They understand this is NOT MY PERSONAL OPINION!
I know a lot of people are looking at the Economic Confidence Model. Some plagiarize it, while others pay attention silently. This is NOT going to be the classic recession. There is a lot more behind this than meets the eye.
Posted originally on Jul 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I find it remarkable that your model has always been correct in predicting the economy’s direction. This latest US inflation number shows that it was subsiding, cooling down to the slowest pace since 2021, right in turn with your Economic Confidence Model. Treasuries rallied on expectations that the Fed might cut rates. It seems so obvious to a blind man that your model has done what no economist has been able to do for decades. Why does academia refuse to credit you for your discovery?
SH
ANSWER: The 1960s was a wild time when I was still in high school. In Economics class, they said everything is random, and there is no definitive business cycle, so we can manipulate the economy to prevent recessions. That was the Keynesian economics. When I went to Physics class, they emphasized that nothing was random. I concluded the someone was not telling the truth and it seemed to be in the Economics class.
For you see, this was the period when the fixed exchange rate was collapsing. It was the end of Bretton Woods, and this was a confusing period for what people call today the “Everything Bubble.” Back during the 1960s, it was the “Everything Crash.” I saw everything rise to a peak and then crash from stocks and bonds to precious metals, real estate, and collectibles. This forged my understanding of the world economy, and everything was connected.
The pressure on Brettone Woods actually began with rising inflation. President Kennedy was forced to remove silver from the coinage starting in 1965. The last silver coins produced came with the peak of that ECM wave in 1964, and by 1968, that saw the first major crash in the gold standard.
Back then, the 1968 financial crisis forced the two-tier gold market where gold began to trade openly in London in 1968.
Gold rallied to $44, finally forcing the first crash in the gold standard. The solution was to allow a two-tier market, where the fixed rate was between countries, and the private market was allowed to float.
I remember well that in 1970, just BEFORE the fixed exchange rate collapsed in August 1971, gold fell on the London market to $34.70 BELOW the official fixed rate after it had risen to $44 in 1969, which forced the first crack in the fixed exchange rate system.
The pressure persisted, but gold fell below the official rate in 1970, and then, by August 1971, President Nixon was forced to close the gold window. In October 1973, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) announced that it was implementing a total oil embargo against the countries that had supported Israel at any point during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
It was the bias of academia in Economics that followed Marx and then Keynes. In both theories, economists advocated intervention. Thus, economists marketed themselves as all-powerful, and they could direct the government on how to better manage the economy to eliminate the business cycle.
To this very day, academia refuses to accept the business cycle, for they always want to preach EQUALITY and fairness and constantly point to the disparity of wealth as if everyone should have exactly the same. So, they will NEVER accept my research because most of the academics follow these interventionist theories. It’s not something personal, it is just the way academia operates.
Posted originally on Jul 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Back in 2008, I named a report after what Margaret Thatcher had told me about politics. I began that report by writing:
Time is but a dimension that we divide up to mark its passing. Western thought, unfortunately, is linear, not dynamic. This has been the curse of Western understanding and knowledge. Time is but a cycle – a circle. Asians are raised with the idea of cycles leading to a more dynamic thinking process. Some see and feel cycles, and some see it as necessary and instinctively understand them. Lady Margaret Thatcher once commented to me that the Conservatives would lose the elections in Great Britain when John Major was running, she said – “It’s just time.”
Lady Thatcher came and spoke at our conference on cycles. She said.
Today’s British election is underway, and we will see a sweep where Labour will replace Conservatives, who have acknowledged that Labour appears headed for victory and urged voters not to hand the party a “supermajority.” Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak insisted “the outcome of this election is not a foregone conclusion.” However, in a message to voters on Wednesday, Sunak said that “if the polls are to be believed, the country could wake up tomorrow to a Labour supermajority ready to wield their unchecked power.”He urged voters to back the Conservatives to limit Labour’s power. The Conservatives have been more concerned about appeasing Anthony Blinken and the American quest to conquer Russia. To hell with the economy or the people. Britain was fully on board with the Globalists, which was precisely OPPOSITE of all the positions to retain independence from Europe, which were the core policies of Lady Thatcher.
I have done some interviews in Britain where the host reluctantly put me on the air because of my connection with Lady Thatcher and their obstinacy about even trying to understand her policies. Many regard her as the most hated Prime Minister, all because they were used to handouts. They claim that she destroyed Britain’s manufacturing industry, and her policies led to mass unemployment. That was absurd, for the world was engulfed in the crisis at the time – not just Britain.
I advised companies that wanted to get into the EU and needed skilled labor to place them in Britain, while I placed those that needed the best tax deals, like airlines, in Ireland. Thatcher had heard that there was this guy rearranging companies and wanted to meet me. She asked me why I placed industries in Britain compared to other European countries. I explained that the cost per employee in other regulations was 40% less in Britain compared to Germany at the time.
Others argued that she presided over 15% interest rates. Again, that was not unique to Britain; it was a global trend. Most of the complaints about Thatcher were based on their ignorance of global trends. No single country can reverse a worldwide recession, no matter who the politician might be. The very best you can do is minimize the volatility and depth of the decline.
I did feel the public would never understand her reasoning regarding the poll tax. She felt that if people had skin in the game, this would limit government waste. But the people, I said, are like dogs. They are satisfied with the scraps from your table, not about jumping on your table and eating the whole meal. Others complain that she sowed the seeds of NHS Privatisation. I think Russia proved, as did ancient Byzantium, that the government is INCAPABLE of running anything efficiently. Those who hated Thatcher seemed to want to be taken care of and had no interest in their country.
What the self-centered haters of Thatcher refuse to understand, no less acknowledge, is that she SAVED Britain. I remember she said if she walked across the Thames River, they would say it was because she did not know how to swim. The coup staged against her by John Major and others was to take Britain into the fantasy land of the Euro. Major took Britain into the ERM and overvalued the pound, which led Soros to make his fortune thanks to John Major and others.
She knew that Tony Blair would win long before there were polls. When I asked why, she told me, “It’s Just Time.” She understood cycles better than any Western politician I have ever met. So while the ignorant still hate Margaret Thatcher, they will now get to see what voting for self-interest will do with promises of more money.
The one thing I have learned from our computer is that if you turn the economy around with these Economic Confidence Model turning points, you will get political change. What is sweeping the world is that 60% of it is going to an election, and WHOEVER is in power is just being thrown out. The Globalists have been trying to take over everything, creating their dream of a one-world government headed by the United Nations with the elimination of our right to vote on anything. Their dream is a global dictatorship. Democracy must end as part of their agenda. It is refreshing to see Macron in trouble, as is Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. World leaders like Trudeau in Canada, Biden in the USA, and Ursula in the EU have a common goal – war against Russia at all costs and the creation of this one-world government bringing Democracy to an end. The people are responding regardless if they call themselves conservative, liberal, labour, or communist. Whoever is in power is taking the brunt of this global political shift.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America