Tag Archives: Monetary Crisis Cycle

Aug 18 2020

Kondratieff Wave – COVID – Future


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Aug 18, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong,
I would first like to thank you for your work on the public and private blogs so we small investors can understand the greater trend that has been building for quite some time.
I also hope that your health conditions have gotten better and that you are recovering.
Your work has deeply shifted my view from the university education that I have just now finished; ideological stances are everywhere.
However, I am confused about a subject that is not an economic one -COVID.

Regardless of the political motives being used with this virus to create the premises of a “new” socialist revolution (political Economy); this virus has come right around the 2020 solar minimum so are we to expect this virus to continue in some way shape or form (Mutate or another virus)?

Furthermore, what guidance would you give to the next generation (West), those coming in this new cycle of China’s undeniable Empire now facing inward in building their domestic economy?
We are seeing all the hallmarks of the end of the Western Empire’s absolute reign with crippling doomsayers, more broadly the cultural landscape of the West (Climate Change, Equality against Freedom)?

You have said that we will see a rise in the commodity cycle, is the commodity cycle synched with the Kondratieff wave of the new Energy being needed to create this new future.
Are these rare minerals part of the bigger trend?

The ground is moving but as Churchill once said we must “Never let a good crisis go to waste”

Thank you for reading this entirely, I hope you all the best
Sincerely
RLB

ANSWER: The Kondratieff Wave has been seriously abused over the years. Look at the economic structure from when he constructed that data for the wave. Commodities were 70% of the economy during the mid-19th century, falling to about 40% by 1900, and eventually 3% by 1980. This is why the Kondratieff Wave failed to work as people were predicting. The next ideal turning point will be 2028.

If I constructed a cycle based on the snapshot of the economy today, 70% would be the service industry. But things change with time so the model must also adapt to the changing structure of the economy. Additionally, there were waves of innovation pointed out by Schumpeter, but even this still missed the underlying causes. Prices certainly soared during the war, for this is when food production was also disrupted. Make no mistake about it, this COVID scare has reduced food production precisely as what unfolds during a war.

Even this still fails to dig deep enough. This was also a solar minimum. We were gradually coming out of the Little Ice Age and it was still cold into 1850. Therefore, the rise in warming was been a dead-cat bounce. Consequently, we are still in a position where we are vulnerable to a decline in solar activity, which is already reducing food production. Shortages will be seen in North Korea which will incentivize an invasion of the South if they see the USA becoming divided and weak. We also see crop failure in China. The rise in prices will be from SHORTAGES, not speculative demand.

Even if we assume that this virus was manmade, that does not prevent it from mutating. The common cold is a coronavirus and we cannot cure that. This will most likely mutate for years to come. That does not mean we should be locked down with masks for the rest of our lives.

As far as guidance is concerned, first, forget European languages and start studying Mandarin. As far as skills, look to technology. Programming will be critical, for it teaches you what is possible in this new age of artificial intelligence.

Aug 15 2020

Left – Right – Middle – Inevitable


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

re-Posted Aug 14, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do you think the Republicans are any better than the Democrats in Washington?

SP

ANSWER: All career politicians are a problem for they lack contact with the people. Longer-term, this form of government I seriously doubt will last. This is the very same problem of corruption that infected the Roman Republic which ended in the civil war and then Imperial Rome began. If you look at Athens, there was a constant battle between the oligarchy and those who were Democrats. Representative government has never been sustainable because politicians can be bribed.

The crisis with the Democrats is confined to the leadership which is pandering to the extreme left. My father was a Democrat. Not all Democrats are evil. The vast majority are not extreme left which will make this election very interesting. Then about 10% of the people are truly independent and will swing back and forth. The middle ground Democrats and Republicans have always worked together. But make no mistake about it, all career politicians of both parties are protective and do not like outsiders. They did not like Ronald Reagan at first because he was only a governor. Note that they picked Harris for VP not that she is qualified, but that (1) she is part black, (2) a woman, and (3) a Senator so she is in the game.

All Republics die from oligarchies and become infested with corruption. They hated Trump before he even took office BECAUSE he was not one of them regardless of his comments. It has always been a closed club. My father as a lawyer who defended a client against Republican U.S. Senator Joseph McCarthy in his hearings.

Had the Supreme Court simply ruled honestly that Equal Protection is not limited to race, creed, or gender, but also class, we would not have this Marxist struggle. If you bad mouth a minority it is hate speech. If you bad mouth someone who has more than the average in material wealth you are exposing an injustice. If the Supreme Court simply upheld the constitution which makes no exception based upon any grounds, we would not have this clash between the parties and reduce the class warfare which ALWAYS leads to the collapse of every Republic in history.

Aug 15 2020

Markets, the Future & This Craziness


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Re-Posted Aug 14, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

It is impossible to forecast the markets without this political war that is taking place and the organized Great Reset. People have asked what about the extreme Republicans? It is very hard to find the middle ground any more. Both parties have their middle and those in the Democrats I speak too are equally concerned about the extreme left which has taken control. I have explained that this appears to be the last stand for the extreme old-guard in the Democrats. Their proposals of bailing out all state government pensions and to impose a tax on every transaction in the markets aside from income taxes will certainly undermine the economy long-term.

The extreme left in the Democrats only brings out the extreme right in the Republicans. We have also had enough of this 99% conviction rate and judges who always rule in favor of the government. We are simply without representation in the middle ground. The future will be so determined by events in the 2020 election. But regardless of who wins, the financial capital of the world will be moving anyhow by 2032.

This appears to be a question of global confidence which will turn on the election. But there are rising protests and the middle ground Democrats are becoming very disturbed by these tactics that seek to punish the people in hopes of overthrowing Trump. But the damage to the global economy will only start to surface after the election only because the life-preserver in many regions cannot be maintained forever and people who have lost their jobs will be out on the street. Only then will we see the true extent of this mess.

Aug 10 2020

China & US War in 3 Months?


Armstrong Economics Blog/War

Re-Posted Aug 10, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

The former Labor Prime Minister of Australia Kevin Rudd has come out in a piece he wrote in Foreign Affairs – Beware the Guns of August—in Asia. Rudd is claiming that the US and China may go to war in three months ahead of the US elections. This is clearly the left trying to claim that Trump will start a war just to win the White House. This seems to be simply part of this entire global quest to usher in socialism and end capitalism. The left simply wants total power. Just look at Melbourne, Australia. This one beautiful city I visited often ios now a prison camp using COVID to strip people of all human rights. The police may now enter anyone’s home without a warrant and they imposed a Curfew 8:00 pm.

This entire issue of rising tensions will not lead to war under Trump. Even if China were to invade Taiwan, the US is not likely to send in ground troops. China is flexing its muscles because the West is committing politic-economic suicide with COVID. China knows the agenda and it is being driven by Bill Gates. Activists have been pushing US institutions to sell all investments in China because they are not yielding to the Climate Change Agenda. This is breaking the economic link that does prevent war.

In addition, China is moving to expand its own domestic consumer economy. It has adopted a different pather than Europe which clings to socialism and Germany is still a mercantilistic economy. China will become the new Financial Capital of the World because it is adopting a domestic view while the Democrats in the USA are trying to follow Europe and subjugate the productive capacity of the nation under Marxist class warfare.

While there is no question that war is coming. However, not simply because Trump needs to win the election. Yes, China has been staging assault practices to invade Taiwan. They have suppressed Hong Kong which was a vital economic link for its economy. The subjugation of Hong Kong shows that China’s economy has matured enough that it no longer needs to funnel business through Hong Kong. Many businesses borrowed in Hong Kong and took the cash directly back to China.

The confrontation cycle between China and Taiwan turned up in 2018 and we should expect this to really escalate into 2023. Nevertheless, underlying models do not look good economically for Taiwan. This entire COVID nonsense has seen as much as a 90% drop in profits for some of the biggest companies in Taiwan.

There is clearly a risk that 2020 could prove to be the major high and a decline into 2024 may unfold. This was a high volatility yearly target and we have witnessed an outside reversal to the upside. This may be the conclusion of this long-standing confrontation. With COVID raging in the West, there will be no economic basis to defend Taiwan from Europe or the USA. China knows the West cannot afford a war after destroying its economy. If I were China, I would wait for these further lockdowns to wipe out the various economics and that will reduce the threat of any retaliation. This will be like Rome expanding after the Greeks fought among themselves dividing their empire.

Macedonia Monetary History | Armstrong Economics

Titus Quinctius Flamininus (c. 228–174BC) was a Roman politician and general who was instrumental in the Roman conquest of Greece. That came 309.6 years from the birth of the Roman Republic. The fall of Greece to Rome came about 224 years from the peak of Greece prior to its conquest by Macedonia. Europe peaked really with the French Revolution. That came 224 years before the peak in government confidence which was 2015.75. From there onward, we have has not just BREXIT, but the election of Trump and the collapse in the basic civility within politics.

The Cycle of War has been edited and is off to the printer. The full scope of what we face has been provided in that book.

Aug 7 2020

Something is Wrong


Blog/Basic Concepts

Posted Aug 7, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: At the WEC in Orlando, you said something was wrong. Was the computer picking up this event of a crash being contrived?

JF

ANSWER: The computer clearly was picking something beginning in August 2019, which corresponded to the start of the Repo Crisis and the reaction high in the Russel 2000. Yes, I warned that there would be a crash with the turn in the Economic Confidence Model in January 2020. A divergence was clearly unfolding and has been very dramatic. The failure of the Dow and Russel 2000 to rally compared to the NASDAQ reflected a Paradigm Shift, which also took place during the Great Depression.

This is by no means a normal market, which is why the fundamental analysis makes no sense. The stock market rises while the economy declines. However, it is only selected segments of the economy, which is why there is such a disconnect between indexes and reality.