Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Oct 5 2025

Trump Takes Next Step to Bringing Us to World War III


Posted originally on Oct 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Trump advised by NEOCONS

Trump is clearly listening to the NEOCONS, and he may believe their BS that Russia’s economy is collapsing, so Russia can be defeated in three days, as Kinzinger was claiming. Mark Rubio is a Neocon. I believe Trump hired him as a compromise to the Neocons. But he is taking us into World War III in slow motion. Trump is listening to the wrong people, and he had better look unbiased at why Putin is being put into a precarious position. He has insulted the dignity of Russia and reduced it to a meaningless 4th-world country. If Putin is replaced one way or in November, sorry, Europe will not recover. Germany fought against Russia in both World War I and World War II and lost both conflicts. A third time will NOT be the charm.

WSJ Trump providing Zelensky with targeting

The Wall Street Journal and other outlets reported that President Trump signed off on providing U.S. intelligence agencies to supply targeting data to Ukraine for strikes on Russian energy infrastructure (oil refineries, pipelines, power plants). This suggests that now the US will select the target for Ukraine to attack. That is waging DIRECT WAR against Russia. They certainly can provide missiles to Venezuela and provide them targets for Washington, D.C., and put one right up Trump’s ass. I guess that would not be declaring war either.

TWZ Tar4get Critical Energy

However, it is not clear that “providing targeting” means full battlefield coordination, command & control, or direction of operations — most media accounts frame it as sharing intelligence, not taking over targeting decisions.

According to multiple sources, Trump authorized the sharing of targeting intelligence with Zelensky/Ukraine for strikes on specific energy infrastructure. This is the NECON argument: stop the energy sales of Russia, the country will collapse, and they can walk in and carve up Russia like a piece of pie. SO let’s see, Putin could strike and take our Wall Street, the US cannot borrow any more money, the economy would collapse since it is dependent on debt, and he could do the same to the USA.

Neocon Dividing World Economy

NOBODY seems ever to consider that whatever they do to Russia, they could do the same to the USA and Europe. I am concerned that Putin has been restrained. He cannot agree to peace KNOWING that these Neocons want the destruction of Russia and will NEVER accept them into the world economy. They have already divided the world economy between SWIFT and BRICS, and this division is expected to remain unchanged until after 2032. NEOCONS are braindead assholes who NEVER think one step ahead and only act emotionally to what is in front of their nose with myopic vision.

NY Post Calls for Long Range Missiles

The NY Post pushed an opinion advocating sending Tomahawk missiles to wipe out Russia. They said:

“Trump should now follow through by supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles to do the job — and ratcheting up the economic pressure on Russia.”

Again, this attitude assumes that Russia is incapable of launching any retaliation against the United States. Putin might as well just launch everything because there is NO POINT to any peace agreement, for Trump is a fool if he really believes this is just about Ukraine. This is about the destruction of Russia, and if he does not get rid of these advisers who have him isolated, we are sleepwalking into the end of Western Civilization.

3 Front War

There is NO WAY China will allow Russia to fall. These Neocons pushed Russia and China together. They will stand together with North Korea and Iran. These NEOCONS are really stupid. They will never be able to defend Europe, the Middle East, Taiwan, and Korea/Japan all simultaneously.

Venezuela’s International Support

Cuba has been a longstanding ally of Venezuela. Recently, Cuban diplomats in Angola reaffirmed their support for Venezuela against perceived U.S. aggressions. Russia has continued to support the Maduro government, sending troops to Venezuela in March 2019 and helping the government evade sanctions on the oil industry. China has continued to back the Maduro government, offering to help rebuild the national power grid. Iran has also expressed support for Venezuela, especially in the context of U.S. sanctions and military threats. The two countries have engaged in economic and diplomatic cooperation over the years. Both could also provide long-range missiles to Venezuela, just as Zelensky is demanding, so he can level the Kremlin. Russia could do that with Venezuela and target Washington, DC. Trump obviously never heard = what goes around, comes around.

Turkey has maintained a neutral stance but has occasionally criticized U.S. sanctions and expressed support for Venezuela’s sovereignty. Syria has been a vocal supporter of Venezuela, condemning U.S. actions and emphasizing the importance of respecting Venezuela’s sovereignty. Colombia has shown solidarity with Venezuela, especially in the context of U.S. sanctions and military threats. The country’s foreign minister recently renounced her U.S. visa in protest of U.S. actions against Venezuela.

Brazil has refrained from taking sides in the U.S.–Venezuela conflict. While President Lula has expressed concern over the U.S. naval presence in the Caribbean, describing it as a source of regional tension, he has not indicated any intention to intervene militarily on Venezuela’s behalf. However,

Left-leaning / socialist governments (currently or recently): Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador (varies over time), and sometimes Argentina and Chile, depending on elections. This is why Trump is supporting Argentina. If they flipped back to the LEFT mainly because of Trump’s war against Venezuela, then we can see turmoil in South America. Focusing strictly on war between South American states, the last significant one was the Colombia–Peru War of 1932–1933, which involved a territorial dispute over the Amazonian town of Leticia. It was resolved through mediation by the League of Nations.

Since then, South America has experienced chiefly internal conflicts (civil wars, insurgencies, and guerrilla movements) rather than interstate wars. Border disputes existed (like between Ecuador and Peru in 1995), but these were short-lived skirmishes rather than prolonged wars. However, Trump’s war with Venezuela runs the risk that, as the economy turns down, we can see a rise in anti-Americanism, and this will impact not just militarily, but also economically, with outstanding debt issues. Specifically, U.S. dollar-denominated debt accounts for approximately 92.6% of South America’s total public debt.

In August 1982, Mexico announced that it could no longer service its debt. This is often considered the official start of the Latin American debt crisis.

Other major South American countries quickly followed this:

Argentina (1982)
Brazil (1983)
Chile (1983)
Venezuela (1983)
Peru (1984)
Bolivia (1984)
Uruguay (1983)

This is the unspoken risk with a conflict with Venezuela, which does have the #1 largest oil reserve of any country on the planet.

Braindead Neocon

These Neocons are BRAINDEAD, for they never consider not just the next step, like taking out Saddam, with no comprehension of what comes next. Still, they fail to feel that they are pushing Putin like he is meaningless, and what if he steps aside in November and hands it to their Neocons, for Russia is NOT going down without a fight. Putin has warned that they have bombs that will get these Neocons in their bunkers.

Demand Elections in Ukraine

Cut Off All Contact With Ukraine. They are a Patsy for NATO

Zelenskyy Johnson
Boris_Johnson_We_are_in_a_proxy_war_against_Russia_

Nobody cares that even one Ukrainian is still alive. Boris Johnson is running the show, instructing Zelensky that he is NOT allowed to have peace. He has already announced that Britain is at war with Russia and Trump expects Putin to surrender? Trump better open his damn eyes, he is being played like a fiddle by the Neocons.

Categories:RussiaWar

Oct 4 2025

Interview: NATO’s War Agenda, Neocons, and the Collapse of Europe


Posted originally on Oct 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Oct 4 2025

Interview: Gold to $5,000, Dow 65,000, & Why Florida Replaced Wall Street–Part 1


Posted originally on Oct 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Oct 4 2025

AI at its Finest


Posted originally on Oct 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Oct 4 2025

Pentagon Lines the Pockets of Warmongers


Posted originally on Oct 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Oct 3 2025

New Hires Fell to 16-Year Low in September


originally on Posted Oct 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

Resume.Jobs_.Unemployment

The condition of America’s workforce remains undetermined, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is currently not operational. The non-farm payrolls report will be delayed even if the unlikely event that the government reconciles today. The Chicago Federal Reserve compiled a separate report that indicates a contraction in the workforce.

Unemployment remains stagnant at 4.34%, up a mere 0.01% from August. Layoffs also remained relatively unchanged at 2.1%. We have not reached the point of mass layoffs where companies can no longer afford to pay their employees. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported in a separate analysis that layoffs declined 37% in September and fell 26% YoY. The company reported that planned furloughs are at their highest level since 2020, with 946,426 cuts between Q1 and Q3.

Companies are fighting to retain employees, and there are no signs of expansion. New hires for the year totaled 204,939, marking a massive 58% annual decline. The US economy has not seen such a slow pace of hiring since 2009 in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Yet, the jobs data under the Biden Administration hid the real problem as the PUBLIC sector multiplied while the private sector stagnated.

The ADP report that is used as a confirmation of the BLS has been closely monitored in the wake of the government shutdown. The private sector eliminated 32,000 positions in September–a glaring warning sign as the markets were predicting an expansion of over 50,000. Private payrolls for August were revised to show a loss of 3,000 jobs, after data initially indicated a gain of 54,000. The ISM manufacturing survey index slightly rose to 49.1 in September from 48.7 but remains in depleted territory.

Small-and medium-sized businesses have been hit the hardest. Large corporations with over 500 employees did, in fact, add 33,000 jobs, offset by the number of layoffs smaller companies were forced to endure. Wage increases for workers who changed jobs in September fell to 6.6% from 7.1% MoM. Annual wage growth for job-stayers fell flat.

“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement.

The Federal Reserve will likely state that it needs the official BLS data to make an informed decision. Powell is careful with his words. Rate cuts will not entice companies to expand, despite Washington’s insistence that they would, as employers lack confidence in the future.

Oct 3 2025

Taiwan Declines US Demand to Offshore Chip Production


originally on Posted Oct 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong | 

Semiconductor.Chip_

The threat of losing military protection did not persuade Taiwan to move half its chip manufacturing to the United States. Top trade negotiator and vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun stated that the 50-50 proposal would not be considered or even discussed. Instead, Taiwan plans to focus on lowering US-imposed tariffs that now stand at 20%.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick believes that Taiwan’s chip production would be safer on US soil. The US relies on Taiwan for an astounding 95% of chip production and cannot lose this strategic trade. “My objective, and this administration’s objective, is to get chip manufacturing significantly onshored — we need to make our own chips,” Lutnick said. “The idea that I pitched [Taiwan] was, let’s get to 50-50. We’re producing half, and you’re producing half.”

There is a belief that the “Silicon Shield” deters Chinese military aggression as the island has global dominance over semiconductor manufacturing. It is true that semiconductor production is the best, if not only, leverage the nation holds.

China accused Taiwan of “selling out” to US influence, repeatedly reminding the nation that they are a province and not a sovereign country. Separatist ambitions are impossible without US military backing. Yet, now there is a concern that the nation would be surrendering its key economic component to the US. Both China and the US want to corner Taiwan and one will win.

China v Taiwan 3

Eric Chu, leader of Kuomintang opposition party, is less keen to cave to US demands than President Tsai Ing-wen. “No one can sell out Taiwan or TSMC, and no one can undermine Taiwan’s silicon shield,” Chu said, in reference to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).

Manufacturing on US soil is far more costly and there is a concern that this could slow innovation and create new logistical issues. Yet, China has been ramping up One China policy rhetoric. President Xi Jinping called on the nation to “firmly oppose Taiwan independence separatist activities and external interference,” reaffirming China’s commitment to defend its “sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 established the “one-China principle” that states Taiwan is a Chinese province under international law. The majority of UN member states agree and Taiwan has been blocked from participating in international organizations. The resolution, however, is vague and does not explicitly mention Taiwan. Rather, it “expels forthwith the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek from the place which they unlawfully occupy in the United Nations and in all the organizations related to it.” Chiang Kai-shek was the leader of the communist Republic of China (ROC) who was forced to retreat to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the Chinese civil war. Chiang Kai-shek ran Taiwan as an independent nation to the dismay of the international community. The UN officially recognized the People’s Republic of China over the ROC in 1971 and has not changed its stance.

Governments are increasingly undermining globalist organizations like the UN and ignoring past treaties. This matter cannot be solved with pen and paper.

Oct 3 2025

Exxon Announces Mass Layoffs


originally on Posted Oct 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Exxon

Recent data from the Chicago Fed and ADP indicate new hires at a 16-year low. The ADP offered a bit of promising news for large corporations as they managed to expand by 33,000 positions last month. Yet, no corporation is immune to the increased cost of goods, excessive regulation, and taxation. Socrates has warned that unemployment will top 6% by 2026, and we are beginning to see the warning signs in Q4.

Exxon Mobil plans to slash 2,000 positions, representing 3% to 4% of the global workforce. “Our global office network was established decades ago under very different circumstances,” Exxon said in a statement to Barron’s. “To support the collaboration so critical to our success, we are aligning our global footprint with our operating model and bringing our teams together.”

Exxon Chairman and CEO Darren Woods stated that the company is aiming to “redesign work processes and improve cost competitiveness.” “We are making tough decisions, some of which will result in friends and colleagues leaving the company,” Woods said back in 2020. The global economy never truly recovered from the pandemic. I discussed the ongoing issue with crude and the broader implications on the private blog.

CRUDE M Array 5 2 25

Numerous oil giants announced mass layoffs. Chevron drastically reduced its payroll by cutting over 15% of its workforce. Imperial Oil is slashing its staff by 20% over the next two years. Total Energies is looking for a way to save $7.5 billion over the next five years.

Oil shocks are typically geopolitical in nature. It is not inflationary or demand-driven. Oil is a global reserve commodity that responds to shifts in capital flows and confidence. Energy is leverage and power, which is why is closely aligns with the war cycle. Companies overall are hedging against expected volatility by cutting costs, but oil companies are especially prone to stress due to the current geopolitical atmosphere.

Oct 2 2025

Taiwan Forced to Move Chip Production to the US to Maintain Protection


Posted originally on Oct 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Semiconductor.Chip_

Taiwan will lose protection if it fails to move semiconductor chip manufacturing to the United States. The nation must determine which is more valuable—US  protection against Chinese threats or maintaining 95% of the world’s chip production.

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) agreed to invest $100 billion in manufacturing plants in the US earlier in the year, but that has not been a sufficient deal for the current administration. Cornering 95% of the market, the US cannot risk losing its main semiconductor manufacturer in the event that China fulfills its promise to absorb Taiwan as a Chinese province.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick admitted it is a “herculean task” to move 95% of the world’s chip production 9,000 miles away. “The model is: if you can’t make your own chips, how can you defend yourself, right?” Lutnick argued. Only 2% of Taiwan’s chip manufacturing occurs on US soil.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said it could take up to two decades for supply chain independence, adding, “It’s not a really practical thing for a decade or two.” TSMC has emphasized that its most advanced processes will remain in Taiwan to preserve the “silicon shield”—its economic leverage against Chinese aggression. America will need to guarantee securities to Taiwan, otherwise, what good is it to move production? US facilities will begin to focus on mid-to-high-end nodes that should meet 30% to 50% of US consumer demand by 2030. However, Taiwain demands that the overall global supply remain on the island.

President Tsai Ing-wen is wanted by the Chinese government for defying the One China policy. He has been eager to form a strong alliance with the US as he knows China can only be kept at bay for so long. “In the face of authoritarian expansionism and the challenges of the post-pandemic era, Taiwan seeks to bolster cooperation with the United States in the semiconductor and other high-tech industries. This will help build more secure and more resilient supply chains. We look forward to jointly producing democracy chips to safeguard the interests of our democratic partners and create greater prosperity,” Taiwan’s president stated in 2024.

Trump told Taiwan that it must raise its own defense budget from 2.45% of GDP to around 10%. He has likened America to “an insurance company” for Taiwan and believes the nation should pay for protection.

A large semiconductor chip manufacturing just so happened to host a conference at the same venue in Orlando, Florida, where we held the World Economic Conference in 2024. An employee of mine spoke with one attendee who said shareholders were concerned that their manufacturing headquarters were located in Taiwan. I’m told the general consensus was that even in the event of China following through with its One China policy, the company believed that China would not want to lose such a lucrative business deal with the United States. Yet, what would happen if two nations were at war? Cutting off America’s supply of semiconductors would cripple the tech industry.

Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom, Intel, MediaTek, Qualcomm, and others, with North America purchase over 65% of Taiwanese chips. The US-China tensions and Taiwan’s fragile geopolitical position make “Made in Taiwan” a risky bet for Western countries despite the critical importance of its semiconductor manufacturing. Taiwan must decide if the risk of foreign invasion is surrendering half of its share of production.

Oct 2 2025

The Cost of the US Govt Shutdown


Posted originally on Oct 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Swamp

The US government shut down once again as our public servants refused to work in a partisan fashion. Over 2.1 million civilian federal employees will be affected, with 750,000 furloughed without pay. Naturally, Congress will still receive a paycheck and their lobbying checks. The duration of the shutdown is unknown, but estimates state the bickering could cost the US economy up to $2 billion per week.

Non-essential offices, websites, and services are unavailable. National parks and museums are closed to visitors. Passport processing will be delayed. The daily cost of compensating the furloughed workers is $400 million. Military members may face delayed pay, while contractors face layoffs.

Most concerning is the data blackout—the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be unable to release its September non-farm payroll report slated for October 4. Data regarding the consumer price index and producer price index will be delayed. Retail sales, housing starts, every piece of data compiled by the federal government will be delayed and amplify uncertainty. The key information the Federal Reserve and investors rely on will be unavailable, and if the shutdown carries on for more than two weeks, there will be a massive spike in volatility and a potential delay in rate cuts. The Fed will be forced to rely on private estimates like the ADP jobs report that are less reliable.

The Democrats insist on expanding COVID-era funding for Obamacare, and insist the GOP reverse the decision to cut the Medicaid budget. Neither side is willing to compromise. Leaders are begging Congress to simply stay in Washington until a decision is reached.

“There isn’t any substantive reason why there ought to be a government shutdown. This is something that has been done routinely, as I said, 13 different times when the Democrats had the majority. But we are not going to be held hostage for over $1 trillion in new spending on a continuing resolution,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said ahead of the vote.

The Medicaid cuts alone are expected to save the government $840 billion over the next decade. Cutting the premium tax credit extension could save $350 billion over the same period, and work and eligibility restrictions could save another $344 billion. Additional recessions and funding cuts to government agencies are expected to save up to $9 billion in 2025 alone.

Non-citizens without access to other coverage DO benefit from these extensions. US taxpayers have spent billions on providing health coverage to migrants. Those earning between 100% to 400% of the federal poverty level will also benefit, as will anyone earning 400% above the threshold if their premiums exceed 8.5%.

“It is unclear how long Democrats will maintain their untenable posture, making the duration of the shutdown difficult to predict,” Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought penned in a memo. “Regardless, employees should report to work for their next regularly scheduled tour of duty to undertake orderly shutdown activities.”

“We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible, that are bad for them and irreversible by them, like cutting vast numbers of people out, cutting things that they like, cutting programs that they like,” President Trump warned.

Trump could possibly lay off more federal employees in non-essential roles, and a hiring freeze is already in place. The president has the authority to cut funding to programs favored by the Democrats such as social services and environmental programs. Sanctuary cities or jurisdictions could see funding withheld. The federal government will not spend on non-essentials during this shutdown, but that will only anger Democrats who refuse to budge.

Congress serves no purpose. They represent private lobbying interest groups and serve the invisible hand rather than the people of the United States. A private company would never shutter its office over a fiscal budget disagreement. Our public servants must reach a resolution immediately, and I see no reason why they deserve pay during a deadlock. These individuals are on taxpayer-funded vacation for the majority of the year and refuse to perform the minimal work they are expected to do. It seems they are unfit for the job. Fire everyone and start fresh.