The Personal Savings Rate is at Great Recession Levels 


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted Jun 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Saving money has become impossible for many amid 40-year high inflation. According to data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal savings rate reached 4.4% in April after steadily declining from the 6% level seen in January. This marks the lowest rate on record since September 2008 amid the Great Recession.

People hoard and save when they are pessimistic about the future. That innate desire to save is not possible with inflation at 8.3%. For example, in April 2020, the lockdowns began to take a stronghold on the US. People were losing their jobs, basic necessities such as toilet paper were in short supply, and no one knew when life would return to normal (spoiler: it never will). Fears were high, but inflation was only 4.2%. The personal savings rate at that time reached a historical high of 33.8%, partially due to government handouts, social programs, and payment moratoriums.

People can hardly save with the current cost of living. If the economy continues to slide into a recession, survival will be the main concern rather than saving.

Yellen & Inflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jun 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; I have been a follower for years. Your model has correctly forecasted every major trend from civil unrest to disease. But your forecast that this wave would be commodity inflation based on shortages years in advance, proves that you deserve the Noble Prize. Absolutely no analyst did that although many now pretend they are forecasting this trend. I have to ask. Why is the government refusing to use your model?

HK

ANSWER: The entire economic field sells itself as the solution. They reject the idea of any defined business cycle BECAUSE that means there can be no manipulation. Just look at Schwab and his World Economic Forum, which will be one day cast as the evil emperor in some future version of “Planet of the Manipulators.” If they listened to this model and followed it, they would reject Schwab’s obsession with Marxism. As long as the economy is random, then they can manipulate it. Following my model strips them of that power.

There are still people in the former Iron Curtain countries that miss communism. Why? It is the same in prison. You become institutionalized and have no responsibilities, including taxes. Someone hands you a broom, you sweep the street, and it takes not a single mental thought of how to actually do the job. You can’t even be fired.

Small Business Payrolls Collapse in New ADP Report for May, Total Employment Result Far Below Expectations


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 2, 2022 | sundance

You do not need anyone to affirm that Main Street is in trouble, you can see it all around you.  Inflation is crushing blue-collar and white-collar workers as prices continue to rise on essential goods. Consumer spending is now prioritized around the higher cost of housing, energy, gasoline and food.  Family earnings are spent before the paychecks arrive for most Main St workers, and now we are starting to see the alarming result economic contraction, beginning with small businesses.

That’s the message within the ADP private sector payroll report released today [DATA HERE], which shows a contraction in small business employment.  Economists were looking for private payroll increases in the 300,00 range; but the result was far lower at 128,000.   Small businesses lost 91,000 jobs in May.  Main Street is in trouble.

WASHINGTON, June 2 (Reuters) – U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in May, which would suggest demand for labor was starting to slow amid higher interest rates and tightening financial conditions, though job openings remain extremely high.

Private payrolls rose by 128,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Thursday. Data for April was revised down to show 202,000 jobs added instead of the initially reported 247,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls increasing by 300,000 jobs. (read more)

The Joys of Gun Control


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 1, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

“Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Mao, Idi Amin, Castro, Pol Pot… All these monsters began by confiscating private arms, then literally soaking the earth with the blood of tens & tens of millions of their people. Ahh. The joys of gun control.”

Justin Trudeau will join the list of dictators who forbid citizens from self-protection. “It will be illegal to buy, sell, transfer or import handguns anywhere in Canada,” Trudeau said, using the tragedy in Texas as his platform. “Other than using firearms for sport shooting and hunting, there is no reason anyone in Canada should need guns in their everyday lives.”

The cowardly armed cops in Uvalde, Texas, sat idle as the children were massacred. They even tasered desperate parents who tried to enter the school. Any parent would have attempted to eliminate the threat given the opportunity. The heroic teachers protected the children as best as they could, being unarmed, as help from the government (i.e., the cops) never arrived. The government is not here to protect you or your children. Relinquishing guns is the first step toward becoming completely defenseless.

Joe Biden Says He Welcomes Advice from New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on How to Structure Firearm Restrictions and Force Climate Change Energy Policy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 31, 2022 | Sundance

Joe Biden sought counsel today from New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern about how best to remove firearms from Americans and force the U.S. economy to a dependency on renewable energy.   Prime Minister Ardern took the top spot in the global progressive movement after the retirement of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

PM Ardern, a remarkable smiley-faced fascist, now represents the face of modern global leftism and boned-up her progressive bona fides with the totalitarian New Zealand COVID policy.  The corporate fascists within the World Economic Forum love the government compliance model represented by Ardern to the collective global society they are creating.

New Zealand has a population of 5 million people, and a GDP of $205 billion (about the same as Nevada).  By comparison the U.S. has a population exceeding 350 million and a GDP exceeding $21 trillion. That said, during their White House meeting today, Joe Biden emphasized that he welcomes the assistance of PM Ardern in helping to guide U.S. efforts for firearm regulation and a comprehensive climate change driven renewable energy economy.

[Transcript] – […]  You understand that your leadership has taken on a critical role in this global stage — and it really has — galvanizing action on climate change; the global effort to curb violence, extremism, and online, like happened in Christchurch.

And — you know, we want to be — I want to work with you on that effort.  And I want to talk to you about what those conversations were like, if you’re willing.

The United States is, you know — it’s just been — there’s a — there’s an expression by an Irish poet that says, “Too long a suffering makes a stone of the heart.”  Well, there’s an awful lot of suffering.  We’ve been — I — I’ve been to more mass shooting aftermaths than, I think, any President in American history, unfortunately.  And it’s — it’s just — so much of it is — much of it is preventable, and the devastation is — is amazing. 

Yesterday — or not — the day before, I was up — I was down in Texas.  And people sat in a room — about 250 of them in a large room — with me for almost four hours.  Not — nobody left.  They waited until aft- — until I spoke to every single person in that room.  Every single person, they waited to the very end.  And the — they — the pain is palpable. 

And you’ve been one of our closest partners with a long history and friendship.  Eighty years ago, Marines landed in New Zealand before embarking on — into the Pacific Theater in World War Two.  And I think I told you, when I met my — my — two of my mother’s brothers who were in the Pacific — they used to be able to deploy at the same time in those days, in World War Two.  And one was shot down in New Guinea.  And they never found the body.  But it’s — you know, it’s — the history goes back a long way — a long way.

And I want to, by the way, recognize New Zealand’s significant support for Ukraine, as a lot of Indo-Pacific countries are doing now.  And — because this is more than just a regional war going on.  

So, I look forward to our conversations today.  We have a lot to talk about.  And I’m really, really delighted to have you here — really.

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  Thank you.  And can I say, Mr. President, thank you, so much — so much —

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  You — you can do anything you want.

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  Great.  (Laughs.)  Thank you.  And we really welcome this opportunity.

As you’ve said, we’ve spoken on several occasions.  And what stood out to me on both those occasions were we traversed such similar issues, and not — not least, of course, our shared history.  

You speak of your uncle’s service in the Pacific; my grandfather served in the Pacific.  And I think that speaks to the personal connection but also the depth of our friendship and relationship as two countries.  

We are in an incredibly difficult international environment.  But also, domestically, it is extraordinarily challenging as well.  And can I bring the sincere condolences of the people of Aotearoa New Zealand for what you have experienced in Texas and in New York?  And it’s been devastating to see the impact on those communities.

Our experience, of course, in this regard, is our own.  But if there’s anything that we can share that would be of any value, we are here to share it.

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  Well, the work you’re doing with tech companies is really important, and I want —

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  Absolutely.

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  — to work with you there as well. 

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  And I absolutely look forward to updating you on some of the conversations we’ve had this week because I hold hope that we can make progress.  

I also wanted just to acknowledge your leadership in bringing to the table the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.  And whilst, of course, we are significant advocates for the CPTPP, the IPEF presents a significant opportunity to build the economic resilience of our region.  So, I look forward to having a bit of a discussion about that opportunity as well.

I also want to acknowledge your significant leadership on Ukraine and how important that has been not only to us as we’ve looked to play a role as well, but globally as we look to make sure that we strengthen the international response to what is a threat to our values and, of course, the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine.

I do want to finish on a note of optimism.  Climate change also is one of the greatest threats that we face.  And I believe that, in you, not only have we seen the leadership but the opportunity that exists between our nations to work together on this incredibly difficult issue that will only be resolved if we work together.

So, thank you.  With — as you’ve seen, we’ve got a lot to discuss, so —

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  We’ve got a lot to do.  And I want to emphasize the last point you made: “working together.”

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  Absolutely.

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  We are not coming to dictate or lay down the law.  We —

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  Yeah.

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  — we have more work to do in those Pacific Islands as well.  I mean, we’ve — and so, we talked at length about — in the past about my trip to Japan and Korea and then dealing with the Quad.  And so — but I think there’s a lot of opportunity —

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  Yeah, I agree.

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  — to make the world safer and deal with the environment. 

PRIME MINISTER ARDERN:  I agree.  I agree.  So, thank you.

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  Thank you.

Thank you all very much.

Q    Mr. President, will you meet with Senator McConnell on guns? 

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  I will meet with the Congress on guns.  I promise you.

{Transcript End}

NEC Director Brian Deese Defends Policy as U.S. Economy Transitions Away from Oil and Gas to Windmills and Solar Power


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 31, 2022 | Sundance 

Anytime you hear the code-word “transition”, what the explainers mean is the change from traditional oil, gas and fossil fuels to renewable energy and the Green New Deal.  The phrase “economic transition” is used to explain the economic collapse of Main Street that will happen during the switch.   Remember THE GOAL?  It has never changed.

National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, aka the U.S. version of Baghdad Bob, appears before several audiences today in an effort to use as many words as possible to explain the “transition,” without actually explaining the “transition.”  Why?  Because they don’t want the average person to know what the “transition” is all about…. Because if the average person knew what this “transition” is all about, then they might realize all of these massive increases in price are being done intentionally.   WATCH:

.

Again, you guys are going to get sick of me saying this…. BUT, the number one problem our country faces is that the vast majority of us are PRETENDING.

The White House is pretending the U.S. government does not have full control over what is happening in the economy.  The media are pretending not to know that the White House is avoiding admitting the agenda and economic pain is intentional and unavoidable.  The republican politicians are pretending the Biden economic transition program is because the White House is incompetent.  All of these -and so many more- are just pretenses.

What is being done by the government, in this decision to switch from an oil and gas economy into a wind and solar economy, is being done on purpose. Yes, everyone at every level of government, both political parties and every agency within it, and the entirety of the corporate media are pretending not to know this is the Green New Deal taking place.

We cannot confront or solve this stuff, until we -including media- stop pretending.  Brian Deese is Baghdad Bob.

I will not eat the bugs.

.

American Confidence in the Economy Drops to Lowest Level Since 2009, Oil Prices Climb, Gas Prices Break Records, Main Street in Serious Trouble


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 31, 2022 | Sundance

…..Quit Pretending

Joe Biden is not running this economy.  Joe Biden’s economic advisors are not running this economy.  Joe Biden’s cabinet members are not running the economy. The people running this economy are the climate change activists behind the scenes who have been elevated into positions in all economic cabinet offices throughout the administration.  This was the deal in 2020 that led to Biden’s installation.

Professional political activists, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders types, within the Interior Dept., Energy Dept., EPA and other regulatory agencies related to the energy economy are in control. Not a single operator within the system looks to the White House or executive office for guidance.  They knew they had a short window to carry out the unilateral agenda regardless of damage it does.

This is a full-throated assault on the energy industry under the auspices of the climate change agenda. And that is what is collapsing Main Street and pushing massive costs onto consumers via inflation.  That’s it. That’s the background. No one in/around the White House has any control over the consequences. That was the 2020 deal made, and the reason why Biden was selected as the nameplate.

Oil prices have shot up to $120/barrel.  Russia and Ukraine are being used as a smokescreen for the ‘Build Back Better’, or domestically, the “Green New Deal’, agenda.  The same climate agenda supported by the entire Western government alliance who bow to the altar of the World Economic Forum.

Damn the consequences, full speed ahead. Main Street citizens are collateral damage.  They don’t care. In the view of the operators, their urgent goals are bigger than our needs; and their high-minded, filled with superiority justification is, they are trying to save us from ourselves.

US NEWS – The jump of more than 50% for oil prices so far this year has been a big contributor to the very high inflation sweeping the world. Earlier Tuesday, a report showed inflation in the 19 countries that use the euro currency hit 8.1% in May, the highest level since records began in 1997. (more)

Of course, every American can feel the impact, even if they cannot identify the reasons outlined above.

WASHINGTON – Americans’ confidence in the economy has plummeted to a new low, hitting likely the lowest confidence since the end of the Great Recession in early 2009, according to a new Gallup poll released on Tuesday.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index (ECI) measured -45 in May, which is down from -39 in each of the past two months. (more

The only thing we know with absolute certainty, is that things are going to get worse.  They know how bad it is going to be, that’s why they are working to mitigate any risks to the centralized power.  That risk mitigation includes the need to consider armed citizens as a threat to the process.

There will be electricity shortages.  There will be even more “necessarily skyrocketing” increases in energy costs, both cooling and heating.  There are going to be more, even larger, food price increases and potentially some shortages.

As each unavoidable item like housing, energy, gas and food costs more, there are less dollars available for non-essentials.   Inventories on durable goods will climb as consumers hunker down with priority spending on the most essential items.  If the demand is gone, employment layoffs in the goods sector will take place.

This process, a very predictable yet unnatural outcome from the consequence of completely restructuring the energy sector which underpins the economy, is not going to get better.  There is far more downside yet to travel.

We are entering the ‘you will have nothing, and you will be happy phase.’

The sanctimonious and pontificating elite class are justifying all of this pain by saying they are trying to save the planet.

I will not eat the bugs.

Gun Control After Texas


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted May 31, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: After Texas, what reforms would you advise if any?

GH

ANSWER: They will be those who immediately advocate ending private gun ownership. They have no idea what they are talking about for real criminals do not buy their funds in stores. Much of the weapons the United States hands out in various countries to fight whoever ends up back in the United States on the black market. Guns they gave to Syrian Rebels, the Taliban, and even Ukrainians end up on the black market on American streets. Nobody wants to talk about that.

On August 29th, 2013, the Obama administration surprisingly announced new gun control measures. They deal with the little-known problem of re-importation of US weapons we give to rebels to fight various conflicts that go to our streets. The Obama administration began curbing the import of military surplus weapons because of the evidence from Bengasi.

With all the yelling and screaming about weapons on the streets, it is not widely understood that many actually are coming from our own sales or gifts to rebels overseas. We hand out weapons like candy for political reasons and they are arming the domestic drug trade. The story behind-the-curtain was that Stevens who was killed there played an active role in selling these weapons and that was the real reason for him being targeted.

The weapons that were flowing through Stevens were alleged to be the key to conflicts throughout the region and were flooding the streets in America as well in another secondary black market. This was a key source of weapons for Syrian rebels which was also a Neocon objective to overthrow the Syrian government. Taking out Stevens stopped that traffic in guns. That was the TRUE story behind Benghazi.

So, the weapons for war are on the street and in the hands of the drug dealers. So imposing regulations to stop the sales of assault weapons will not stop the problem. But this incident t presents a real clear and present danger. This shooter was crazy. He asked his sister to help him buy a gin and she said no. When he did get his hands on one, he killed his grandmother who probably saw mental issues in him.

So is there any Regulation That Might Work?

The problem here is he was crazy. I do not see any problem with having to prove you are of sound mind to buy ANY gun. In this case, it appeared that his family would have said NO. Perhaps it should require family consent but perhaps a mental examination as well. There should be a waiting period and perhaps a mental examination by three separate doctors in a blind test to certify that he is of sound mind.

Outlawing guns or even assault weapons will not address the issue. Someone can always get them from the black market. In this case, the shooter was clearly crazy. That type of person would more than like to try to buy a weapon at a gun store. I think the mental exam and family consent are more important than anything else. The Swiss have a militia-type system and most men must be trained and can keep their guns at home. Yet they have no real crisis in guns.

Guns do not kill – the Person Behind the Gun is the Killer

In Florida, a 10-year-old just joked about shooting up the school. Despite the fact that he did not actually possess a weapon to commit such an act. the police were notified and he was arrested. In Florida, they have a union with a task force for that purpose. In Japan, I guy killed people in a mod with a knife.

CANADA TO BAN HANDGUNS?

Of course, Trudeau is jumping all over this incident to ban handguns. This is the real goal because governments know that what is coming is a revolution for they cannot keep this system of endless borrowing forever. This is what the Great Reset is all about. Their quest to retain absolute power. Biden can outlaw particular types of guns, but not retroactively. He can force everyone to register their guns, and then if they fail to do so, imprison them under the same principle of a failure to file income taxes. They cannot imprison you for the failure to pay your taxes, only if you lie to them about what you owe.

Around 40% of US Adult Children Live with Parents


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted May 31, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

A large portion of the youth can no longer afford to live on their own. A new survey found that around 40% of parents in the US currently have an adult child still living at home. An additional 25% reported that their adult child temporarily lived with them but has since moved out. Of the 2,200 respondents, 33% said that their adult children simply could not afford housing on their own. An additional 33% said their child needed financial support after college, while 17% cited job losses.

This has darkened what should be the “golden years” for many Boomer parents. Around 35% said they could no longer afford their long-term goals, and 26% said supporting their adult children has hurt their short-term financial goals. An additional 14% said the added cost had limited their ability to save for future health care.

Previous generations could afford to go to school, work hard, buy a home, and start a family. That is no longer the case amid inflation at a 40-year high coupled with historically high housing and rental costs. The average federal student debt is $36,510 per borrower, while private student debt averages $54,921. Home buying is out of reach for many, as the current average price for a home in America is nearly half a million dollars. Even those with the best credit, and help from their parents, have been outbid by cash offers. Rental costs are through the roof, with the average one-bedroom going for $1,683 (22.1% YoY increase), but it is hard to find an available apartment as occupancy hit 97.5% in December 2021. This all ties in with the drastically declining birthrate as people cannot afford to support themselves, let alone a family.

The unfortunate state of the economy will lead to a new generation of frustrated individuals who are behind in life at no fault of their own. The government has killed the economy, and with it, the American dream.

Joe Biden Memorial Day Message, “The Second Amendment is Not Absolute”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 30, 2022 | Sundance

The installed occupant of the oval office was asked today, “Sir, do you think there is anything different in how Republicans will approach the gun reform question now, given the circumstances?”  Within the response from Joe Biden {Direct Rumble Link}, he said this:

[Transcript] – “Look, when I first started doing hearings on the issue of what rational gun laws should be, it was during a period when I was a senator and the death rate was going up.  Not that many more people were being shot, but the death rate was up.  And when I think of — I’m not sure, I think it was (inaudible) hospital in New York — whatever the largest trauma hospital is. 

And I sat with a trauma doctor, and I asked him — I said, “What’s the difference?  Why are so many people…” — and not that many more people were being shot.  This is now 20 years ago, or 25 years.  I said, “Why are they dying?”  And they showed me x-rays.  He said, “A .22-caliber bullet will lodge in the lung, and we can probably get it out, may be able to get it, and save the life.  A 9mm bullet blows the lung out of the body.”

So the idea of these high-caliber weapons is of — there’s simply no rational basis for it in terms of thinking about self-protection, hunting.  I mean, I just — and remember, the Constitution, the Second Amendment was never absolute.  You couldn’t buy a cannon when the Second Amendment was passed.  You couldn’t go out and purchase a lot of weapons.”  (LINK)  WATCH:

Except for that “shall not be infringed” part.