Category Supply Side Inflation

Oct 28 2022

Techfiltration


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 27, 2022 | sundance 

Just a quick notice and alert to highlight some common technological ‘glitches’ and occurrences that are appearing around the internet, coincidentally timed as a result of the pending 2022 midterm election.

By now everyone is familiar with Big Tech control mechanisms like blocking, shadow banning, downgrading and throttling.

Essentially, these are methods within the technology space that are designed to influence opinion and block access to information and communication adverse to the ideology of the provider(s).

Most often we associate those terms with social media platforms; however, within the infrastructure of the internet itself the same intent is also carried in various forms you might not be familiar with.  I am seeing a lot of deployed control systems triggered recently, it is worth mentioning in case you notice something different.

Internet Service Providers (ISP’s) are increasingly directing your background internet travels and blocking you from access to content they define as against their interest.  Major players in the field of providing online access (comcast, Xfinity, AT&T, etc.) as well as regional operators also have a vested ideological stake.  If you find yourself having difficulty navigating the internet, especially during this election season, be aware the ISP provider could be in control.

Cell phone communication networks also have the ability to control data transmitted through their systems.  Text messages containing links to unapproved or dissident websites can be blocked by code and algorithms assigned to monitor traffic.   Phone browsers and portable internet hot spots may also be controlled by the provider.  You may not be aware, but your agreement with your cell phone provider gives them the ability to filter data on your device according to their individual standard.

Again, just be aware.

Browsers are also major players in the field of filtering information and controlling user behavior.  It could be as subtle as an image or link not appearing for you, or it could be total blocking of traffic to website destinations they have defined as adverse to their interests.   Large activist organizations provide lists of websites and content to feed into the filtration system.   Just be aware your browser may indeed be controlling your content and as a result controlling your perspective.

The obvious issues with internet search engines (google, duck-duck etc.) are well documented, however increasingly Apps and authorized software additions to your devices come with mechanisms to control what information may be visible to you.   This is where the terms “disinformation”, “misinformation” and “malinformation” become useful tools to justify the interception and blocking of your activity.

Sometimes the network may provide a warning or pop-up in their effort to stop you from reaching the information they want to control, but increasingly it just happens in the background, and you have no idea.   This is one of the unspoken benefits in the “cookie” system.  In addition to providing direct advertising experiences based on your browsing history, you as a user, may be identified as a dissident voice and assigned a label within the same cookie identification process.

Most people who use the internet have no idea a unique label has been assigned to them in the virtual space. Those labels can be grouped together and contained within the control systems of cyberspace.

Increasingly the techfiltration process has become a Staziesque public-private partnership.   You can well imagine what happens when the people in control of technological systems have an ideological mission to shape public opinion, simultaneous with the government people who define dis-mis-and malinformation delivering requests from the FBI and DHS to the technological partners who control the techfiltration process.

The bottom line, just be aware that information you may choose to access, research or share, is heavily controlled by the providers you select to facilitate your online information and communication networks.  You are likely right now blocked from accessing information and have no idea it’s happening.

If you cannot reach a website, see an image, view a page, or navigate a system, it’s likely not anything you are doing wrong; most often it’s the result of a tech control system designed to keep you away from the data.  Additionally, valid information like emails or text messages are increasingly identified as spam or blocked completely by the email or cell phone service you have subscribed to.

All of this is just an fyi, because I happen to notice these types of curious conversations taking place with increased frequency right now.  Lots of people are wondering why they cannot access or see things.  These are likely not ‘glitches.’

All the best,

Comrade & Dissident, Sundance

Oct 28 2022

U.S. GDP Grows 2.6% in Third Quarter Driven by Energy Exports and Declining Goods Imports, While Domestic Economy Shrinks


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 27, 2022 | sundance

The topline of a third-quarter GDP at +2.6% looks good [DATA HERE]. However, a look into the numbers shows alarm.  The domestic U.S. economy, as measured by Main Street creating goods and services for domestic consumption, contracted in the third quarter.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculation is a valuation of all goods and services created within the economy, minus the value of goods and services imported.  However, even a cursory look under the topline number shows how the import/export dynamic creates the illusion of economic growth.

In the third quarter we exported hundreds of billions worth of energy products, including massive liquified natural gas (LNG) sales to Europe, and oil sales to the global market from the strategic petroleum reserve.  We also sold billions in weapons to Europe. Those sales are calculated as exports, lifting the GDP number (Table 1).  At the same time, imports of durable goods into the United States collapsed; meaning less was deducted from the GDP.  The net import/export impact on the GDP dynamic was +2.77% (Table 2).

Meaning the third-quarter import/export dynamic alone contributed 2.7% growth to the percentage of change for the prior period.  However, the total GDP only rose 2.6%, because the actual economic value created domestically got smaller.  We made less internally, sold less internally and consumers purchased less internally.

You can see the import/export dynamic in whole dollars within Table 1:

TABLE 1 – We exported 17.2% more goods in the third quarter than in the second quarter (that’s mostly energy sales and food sales to the global market).  We imported 8.7% less goods in the third quarter than the second quarter.  That’s mostly the drop in companies ordering products from overseas for sales in the United States.  Companies imported less because inventories climbed as consumers stopped purchasing durable goods and non-essentials.

Table – 2 (modified for clarity) shows us the impact or contribution from the import/export dynamic:

In Table-2 you can see the net impact of higher exports and lower imports lifted the GDP by 2.77%.  However, the total GDP only gained 2.6% due to the other dynamics inside the economy slowing down.  The import/export dynamic alone was enough to explain the entire gain in Q3 GDP and is a function of US support of the European war economy as the US exports record number of commodities (oil and gas), as well as Joe Biden’s massive multi-billion weapon sales to Europe.

The Biden administration will use the +2.6% GDP number to claim the U.S. “recession” never existed, despite two previously negative quarters.  However, while technically the talking point may be true, the domestic U.S. economy (Main Street) is making less stuff and consumers are buying less stuff.

The savings rate is also declining.  BLS: “Personal saving was $626.1 billion in the third quarter, compared with $629.0 billion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with 3.4 percent in the second quarter.”  American households are saving less because essential purchases like housing, rent, food, fuel and energy, are costing much more.

When households evaluate their checkbooks, a Biden administration claim of a growing economy falls flat – because the only part of the economy that is growing is the part that fuels the energy needs of Europe.  Main Street USA is suffering through the massive inflation that Joe Biden has created, and purchases of anything other than necessities have come to a near halt.

Oct 27 2022

Davos in the Desert


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Oct 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

https://youtube.com/watch?v=yHZhJPRa3NY%3Ffeature%3Doembed%26wmode%3Dopaque

Some of the biggest players have gathered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for the annual Future Investment Initiative (FII). The conference is often referred to as “Davos in the Desert,” as they are competing with the World Economic Forum to be the largest economic conference of the year. Washington’s relationship with Saudi Arabia is at a standstill, but that is not preventing Wall Street’s chief names from attending.

“American companies will make their own decisions about their presence and where to invest, taking into account a range of factors including legal constraints, the business environment, and reputational concerns that can arise from public policy choices made by host countries,” said Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary.

Former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who both run private funds backed by the Saudis, were in attendance. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and Goldman’s David Solomon spoke at the event along with Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman and investor Ray Dalio. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried also spoke at the event. No one associated with the Biden Administration was in attendance as Washington is re-evaluating its relationship with Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia’s economy is rapidly growing. The event is Prince Mohammed’s opportunity to show that the kingdom is ready to be seen as a financial powerhouse beyond its energy sector. The private sector is making it known that they are willing to invest in Saudi Arabia despite Washington’s reluctance.

Oct 27 2022

Fetterman v Oz – Another Case Against Mail-In Voting


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Oct 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Pennsylvania Senate debate between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz was a complete disaster for Fetterman. I think everyone felt secondhand embarrassment for John. Fetterman seemed incoherent for most of the debate. He struggled to form logical sentences or stay on topic.

His team is now in the midst of damage control. They claim that he was brave for speaking weeks after his stroke and that the closed captions provided were altered. “We are thrilled with John’s performance. He did remarkably well tonight – especially when you consider that he’s still recovering from a stroke and was working off of delayed captions filled with errors,” Fetterman’s team managed to say. The doctor who gave Fetterman the OK after his stroke also happens to be one of his campaign donors. Clearly, he was not healthy enough to be on that stage.

Some people would have voted for Fetterman even if he were in a coma simply because he is not a Republican. Others, however, are shocked at the candidate’s mental state. The problem is that close to a million people have already voted in Pennsylvania through mail-in ballots. There may be some sensible people left who are now regretting their vote after seeing his performance on Tuesday night.

Mail-in ballots are not tracked through the mail and open the door to fraud (see: 2020 US Presidential Election). Fraud aside, people did not have a full scope of knowledge before they voted. It would be akin to allowing students to take their final exams during the first few weeks of class.

Oct 27 2022

Steve Mnuchin is Not Pretending, States U.S. Economy is Already in Recession


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 26, 2022 | Sundance

A lot of people didn’t like Steven Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary, I did.  Secretary Mnuchin was an inside player, a billionaire himself, who worked for the outside team.  He already had a full bank account and carried ‘f**k-off’ money.   That, combined with Wilbur Ross having the same ability, was exactly what we needed to execute the America-First MAGAnomic resurgence.

The U.S. middle-class saw and felt the benefits.  Economic security is national security, at a nationwide and even individual level.  Mnuchin, Ross and Lighthizer constructed that economic outcome guided by the larger strategy of President Donald J Trump.

RIYADH, Oct 26 (Reuters) – Former U.S. treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Wednesday he believed the United States was in a recession and said this would continue.

Speaking at Riyadh’s flagship investment conference FII, he said: “I think we’ll probably see a peak of 4.5% 10-year rates.”

“I think you are going to see inflation in the U.S. begin to come under control, it will probably be a two-year period,” he added.

He said the U.S. and China must learn to co-exist. He added that the Middle East’s economic issues need to be dealt with regionally. (link)

Oct 26 2022

Bidenomics – Home Values Continue Dropping Quickly, Especially on West Coast – Meanwhile Rents Continue Increasing


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 25, 2022 | Sundance 

As inflation bites the working-class hard, U.S. household savings rates continue dropping fast.  When combined with drops in home values the loss in home equity compounds the issue.  American families are getting poorer much more quickly under Joe Biden’s economic policies.

According to the Wall Street Journal home values dropped in August at their highest monthly rate of decrease since 2011 {link}.  In part this is driven by higher mortgage rates which are pricing home buyers out of the market.  However, the regional impact is worse on the west coast than east or southeast.

[…] The housing market has slowed abruptly this year due to a rapid increase in mortgage rates, which has raised borrowing costs for home buyers and pushed many prospective buyers out of the market. Existing-home sales fell for eight straight months through September. (link)

As noted in The Daily Mail review of a similar analysis: “It’s Northern California that leads the way, with San Jose experiencing a drop of 10.8 percent since September, followed by San Francisco at 8.5 percent, then it’s Seattle at 8.2 percent, Denver at 5.8 percent, San Diego 5.2 percent, Portland 5.1 percent, Las Vegas 4.8 percent and Phoenix at 4.4 percent.” (link)

What we are seeing is a confluence of events, generally brought about by the outcomes of larger Biden administration policy.  Massive increases in energy costs are the result of energy policy; those increases are fueling inflation from the supply side on food, fuel, electricity, home heating etc.  Simultaneously, Fed monetary policy is driving consumer demand down.  The recession debate continues amid the economic think-tanks while Main Street outcomes show we have been in a recessionary period all year.

The majority of consumers have stopped purchasing nonessential goods and services. As a result, the only thing holding the economy together is employment.  Sooner or later, as the natural lags in the economy bite down, the lack of consumer spending (noted in increased inventories) is going to result in lay-offs and unemployment.  It’s almost a guarantee at this point once the boxcar impact of the prior supply chain shortages straightens out.

The third wave of food price increases is now here, and we are all likely starting to see those price increases in retail food stores.  Depending on how much higher energy prices go this winter (gasoline, natural gas, home heating oil etc.) the middle class will again be making tough checkbook decisions on spending.

On a MACRO level (nationwide averages) I would not be surprised to see home prices drop to where they were in the beginning of the second quarter of 2021.  Home sales have dropped quickly, and home inventories are now climbing.  Home buyers are now in the position to negotiate for much lower prices as fewer home buyers are in the market.

If you did not purchase a home in the past year, you likely have stable equity.  Depending on region, those who did purchase a home this year will have to wait quite a while before the price level returns.  Meanwhile rents continue increasing as middle-class workers are stuck between diminishing real wages (Biden inflation) and higher home borrowing costs (Biden monetary policy).

Oct 24 2022

Sweden Will Not Meet Agenda 2030


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Oct 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

New Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is not heeding to the Green agenda. He promptly eliminated the entire Ministry of Climate and Environment, marking the first time in 35 years that Sweden does not have a specific climate ministry. People are crying that the world will crumble without funding bureaucrats who pretend they have the ability to alter the weather cycle with enough funding.

Klaus Schwab’s plans for Agenda 2030 are in jeopardy. “Environmental issues are going to be given a disadvantage at the same time when we have a huge challenge in Sweden when it comes to biodiversity and forestry,” stated Stockholm University professor Karin Bäckstrand. “We won’t meet the Agenda 2030 goals on biodiversity.”

Democratic leader Ebba Busch will serve as the new Minister for Energy, and 26-year-old Liberal Romina Pourmokhtari will serve as the Minister of Climate and Environment, The Nationalist Sweden Democrats do not support the goal of achieving net zero emissions.

Instead, the new government is prioritizing nuclear power initiatives that will make it increasingly difficult to shut down existing plants while using €36 billion to build new nuclear power stations. The new government is also considering reopening two nuclear power plants that discontinued operations in recent years. Yet another example of how Agenda 2030 and Schwab’s plan to alter the world will fail.

Oct 24 2022

NBC Pushes Midterm Media Poll


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 23, 2022 | Sundance

NBC’s Mark Murray {Eyeroll} produces a midterm media poll {DATA HERE} to frame the 2022 election and claim a tight race for both Democrats and Republicans.  Despite collapsing economic numbers, widespread inflation and disapproval on every category, NBC finds the #1 issue for all voters is “The Threat to Democracy.”

NBC’s Chuck Todd gives the spin on the outcome:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=xcFeR_h975I%3Ffeature%3Doembed

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71% of the country say we are on the wrong track (20% approve).

57% of the country disapproves of the job Biden is doing with the economy (38% approve).

50% of the country says things will get worse (20% think will improve)….

…. But it’s a close election?…

…. And the #1 concern is “the threat to democracy?“

It’s all propaganda.

Oct 24 2022

Lee Smith Nails a Key Point, The Fourth Branch of Government and Media Operate Together


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 23, 2022 | Sundance |

Lee Smith makes an important point in this brief podcast excerpt. {Direct Rumble Link Here}  We have outlined his point on these pages for several years.

Essentially, the point Lee Smith drives home is how the U.S. Corporate Media, and the Big Tech monopolies, are the front force of the new national security and intelligence state.  It is a relationship that extends far beyond the customary leanings of media, and now covers a full synergistic relationship.  WATCH:

“We’re all familiar with the fact that the press has historically leaned to the left. That’s not what we’re looking at now. We’re looking at something very, very different. We’re looking at the press as being a part of the intelligence community. They are the ones who is putting these operations out there.”

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The New York Times and Politico are the public relations firms for Main Justice, the DOJ and FBI.  The Washington Post handles the needs of the Intelligence Community (IC) and the Central Intelligence Agency.  Meanwhile CNN is managed by the needs of the U.S. State Dept.   These direct relationships have been discussed here for several years.