Homebuilder Confidence Survey Records Largest Drop in History Sans Pandemic


Posted originally on the conservative tree on July 18, 2022 | Sundance

As expected, the latest National Association of Home Builders survey [Data Here] shows the July confidence opinion of industry professionals now reflects the largest single month drop in the history of the survey (removing pandemic impact).

On a macro level, home values peaked in April/May and have been dropping ever since.  Mortage rates have increased borrowing costs and inflation is squeezing home buyers out of their savings and/or down payment.  Home sales have stalled in multiple regions and the prices of existing homes for sale are dropping, quickly.  Many home building contracts are being cancelled and builders are now dropping prices in order to retain prior sales.

(Via Forbes) – […]  Builder confidence in the market for new homes posted its seventh consecutive monthly decline in July, falling 12 points to 55 for its second-biggest single-month drop in history, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Monday.

[…] In emailed comments, Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson said confidence has “further to fall,” noting that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last month alluded to the housing market’s “complicated situation,” saying potential home buyers “need a bit of a reset” as mortgage rates normalize at higher levels after remaining historically low during the pandemic.

“This is a meltdown,” says Shepherdson, noting home prices should soon start to drop and warning: “Pretty soon, anyone who has bought a home in recent months will be sitting on a loss.”  (read more)

Percentage of Buyer Contract Cancellations in last 30 days

Battle Lines Being Drawn – Mike Pence Endorses Karrin Robson in Arizona, President Trump Endorses Kari Lake, Dueling Campaign Events Friday


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 18, 2022 | Sundance 

While the ranks of the MAGA rebel alliance continue to grow, it is obvious how the UniParty empire is striking back. On the presidential side of Republican politics, the Wall Street crowd are positioning their candidates:

The open-border GOPe crowd (Koch Inc.) have already put Kristi Noem into play with a book release and well financed marketing team. The foreign policy interventionist GOPe crowd (AIPAC lobby) are funding Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo respectively.  The GOPe white wine spritzer crowd (inside donor class) are funding the explorations of Mike Pence.  And the GOPe Wall Street hedge funds (political insurance experts and short sellers) are betting other people’s money on Ron DeSantis.

There will likely be other fish, but for now that’s the inside crew being financially fed by those who run the Republican Club.  Inside the death star, Decepticon Leader Mitch McConnell and the GOPe beltway control agents have contracted for the 2024 reupholstery of the club’s leather chairs, and the mahogany table is being refinished to remove scratches from the crystal brandy glasses that were slammed and shattered in prior bouts of UniParty frustration.

From the perspective of Republican club control, the MAGA rebellion must be crushed at all costs. Control over the mid-term outcome, which may include the intentional losing of key races in order to ensure full retention of club control, now heads into the championship rounds.  Mike Pence will lead the current fight in the battleground of Arizona, where the republican club cannot –and will not– permit the MAGA rebellion to interfere with their larger responsibility for open-borders and cheap labor migration.

There are trillions at stake. [Please note my emphasis below]

Washinton Post – PHOENIX — Former vice president Mike Pence is endorsing Arizona gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson, a developer who has long been involved in Republican politics, instead of former president Donald Trump’s chosen candidate, Kari Lake.

[…]  The endorsement illustrates the division in the party between Trump supporters who value loyalty to him over all else and those who want to move on from endlessly litigating the 2020 election, including those who are grateful that Pence and other Republicans blocked Trump’s attempts to overturn the results. Trump and Pence, who are each thinking about running for president in 2024, both plan to be in Arizona on Friday to campaign for their chosen candidates ahead of an Aug. 2 primary.

Pence called Taylor Robson “the best choice for Arizona’s future” in a statement provided to The Washington Post.” (more)

Well, obviously, because all the best republicans provide advanced notice of intent to The Washington Post.  [[ insert massive eyeroll here ]]

Successful republican club politics always involves the illusion of choice.

Republican party candidates, those funded by the various mechanisms that eventually all lead back to Wall Street and the multinational banking and finance interests of the professional donor class, are more akin to Russian matryoshka nesting dolls.   Remove the top of one doll and the doll underneath is an exact duplicate, only smaller.  Keep removing them and eventually you get to the least visible doll, the one easiest to control, which is the one that all others are created to hide.

Pence is the biggest and most visible DeceptiCon in the republican club’s matryoshka operation.

I suspect Noem and/or DeSantis will be the doll we will find after all the other club masks fall.

Estonia Forms New Government


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union Re-Posted Jul 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Yet another shake-up among Schwab’s leaders. Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stepped down from her role on a technicality before being reappointed a day later. Kallas’ Reform Party reached an agreement with the Social Democrats and Isamaa Party to form a new three-party coalition.

Estonia shares a 180-mile border with Russia and has strongly supported Ukraine before the war began. Estonia is a small nation with a population of around 31 million and a GDP of $36.29 billion USD. Their inflation rate is among the highest in Europe after spiking to 22% in June.

Estonia has a large Russian population but has the comfort of being a NATO nation. The new government is aiming to eliminate their Russian ties by banning Russian from being spoken in school. Russians and Belarusians now have a more difficult time immigrating to Estonia or even traveling there without a visa.

Estonia is cracking down on potential spies or intelligence agencies at the border. The poster above has appeared around the border, with the government encouraging people to turn in anyone who they suspect is involved with Russian intelligence agencies. Kallas also has the epigenetic fear of her neighbor as her mother, grandmother, and great-grandmother were once deported to Siberia. The small nation will use its strategic position to help the West’s proxy war, and Kallas herself said that negotiating a peace deal with Putin is off the table.

For us, it is important to not make that mistake again like we did in Crimea, Donbas, Georgia,” she said. “We have done the same mistake already three times saying that, you know, negotiations, negotiated peace is the goal. … The only thing that Putin hears from this is that ‘I can do this because no punishment will follow.’”

Australia’s Rental Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Australia & Oceania Re-Posted Jul 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Renters across the globe are in a bad spot as housing has become unaffordable. The situation is particularly bad in Australia where rentals have reached a high not seen since 2009. As of March, the average rental was A$600 per week, surpassing the mid-2018 high of A$550. The is not enough supply to meet demand.

Housing availability dropped by nearly 50% from December 2021 to March 2022. The situation worsened once borders reopened as visa holders and tourists re-entered the nation. The vacancy rate, according to the CBD, has declined to 1.5% after peaking at 5.7% during the pandemic.

Some estimate that the “economic time bomb” of under-investment in affordable housing will cost taxpayers A$25 billion per year by 2051. Housing All Australians founder Rob Pradolin believes this figure is closer to A$110 billion, and believes a $55 billion investment could deliver a 2:1 cost-benefit ratio. At least 2 million Australian low-income households will be under “housing stress” by 2051. That is an optimistic forecast.

Similar to America, the UK, and many other nations, shelter inflation has caused housing costs to become one of the biggest budget expenses.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been accused of being out of touch by suggesting Australians simply buy a house. That is simply not possible for many, especially after the government-imposed lockdowns and shuttered countless businesses during COVID. Morrison has suggested allowing people to access their super (similar to pensions) early in order to purchase a home. Superannuation Minister Jane Hume said that this would result in rising home prices. Labor leader Anthony Albanese also criticized the plan by calling it a desperate “attack on future savings” and future generations. “If you take super away from people, then you’ll have higher deficits and bills from the government in the future,” he told reporters.

Oddly enough, Mr. Morrison vacated his own home, branded “Squat Morrison,” after losing the election to Albanese and taking his time leaving the property.

Unfortunately, Albanese has a worse plan in mind. Low-income residents will have the opportunity to buy a home, with the help of Big Brother government. The government will pay between 30% to 40% of total housing costs for 10,000 buyers annually. Instead of paying back the banks, the people must pay the government back if they can afford to do so.

You will own nothing and be happy.

Inflation – Real Estate – Chaos


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold RePosted Jul 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I thought you were just a Trumper warning what would happen if Biden won. I have come back to your site because I can see inflation approaching 10% as you said and the dollar is rising which made no sense as gold stalled. I think you also said that real estate will decline perhaps into 2023. Has there ever been such a wild combination of events?

Thanks

Pete

ANSWER: It gives me no pleasure to deliver such forecasts. They are NEVER my personal opinion. In all honesty, it truly takes a computer to sort out all the global trends. Personal opinions will not cut it when you enter a period that has not unfolded in a very long time.

I have told the story before that back in 1985 when we were going to open our first office in Europe, I went to lunch with one of the heads of a Swiss bank when I was there. I had a list of names we came up with like European Advisers or something like that because I knew there was a lot of anti-Americanism in Europe. He asked me to name one European analyst. I could not. I was embarrassed but he said there were none.

He then explained that everyone was using our firm on currency because “You do not give a shit if the dollar goes up or down.” He elaborated that in Europe if any analyst ever said their currency would decline it would have been seen as treason since the politicians had used currency to prove they did a good job rebuilding Europe after the war.

I learned many years ago, that the only way to operate was to call the shots as they unfold. My personal opinion means nothing. I cannot make a market rise when its trend is down. I am here to simply deliver what the computer projects. No matter how loud I could scream, it does not matter. What will be – will be.

Real Estate is undergoing three separate trends. First, there has been mass evacuation from cities and high-taxed states thanks also to draconian COVID laws. Secondly, we have the flight of capital to flee banks, etc which is part of just getting capital off the grid. Then thirdly, there has been a flight of international capital fleeing to the United States because of geopolitical instability in Europe.

The standard claim is that real estate will drop by 50% all because of interest rates pointing to some cities declining by 4% in June alone. This is merely confusing the people for they are looking at only the big cities that are already in decline for a separate reason from interest rates.

The claim that interest rate hikes imply that real estate will decline is very old school and once more it presumes everyone is buying on leverage. In 2021, cash sales represented 25% of existing home sales in the key markets that were a level unmatched since 2016. Nationally, buyers paid cash for almost 15% of the homes in 2021 in markets that were booming from migration from other states.

Florida, the Tampa market was even hotter. Single-family homes saw 45.5% more buyers paid cash than in 2020. The number of condo buyers paying cash went up 33.2%. While more people paid cash, the inventory dropped, with 29.2% fewer active listings of single-family homes in the 2021 third quarter than in 2020. Condo listings dropped even more, at 52.2% fewer available. Speaking to a local realtor, houses in excess of $1 million in the Tampa area were 95% cash deals.

This market has been LESS impacted by interest rate hikes than any previous booming market all because of the migration from interstate within the US and the flood of European buyers looking for assets outside of Europe as war keeps getting closer and closer. I have warned that real estate will decline in those states where people are fleeing. It has boomed in places they have been migrating to such as Texas and Florida. Obviously, you can no longer make a blanket forecast in real estate. Then there has been Blackrock which has bought over 20,000 homes in Florida in the lower-end of the market for cash.

I have warned many times that the standard nonsense that gold rises with inflation has been a sales pitch as trustworthy as a used car salesman. Gold rises during the collapse in the confidence of the government. Everyone will respond based on their own currency.  As the dollar rises, gold has declined in US$, but the pattern will be different for every other currency.

Ukraine Cargo Plane Crashed in Greece Carrying 11 Tons of Bombs, Mortars and Landmines to Bangladesh


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 17, 2022 | Sundance

If I had to hazard a guess about what this was, I’d say it is most likely: (a) part of the massive Ukrainian stores of mortars and landmines in eastern Ukraine that were moved in order to keep the Russians from capturing them; or (b) the actual arms that were captured by Russian and then sold on the world arms market.   Either way, somehow, they end up as part of an arms deal from Serbia to Bangladesh.

With the new and improved western weapons provided by the United States, Ukraine is likely upgrading and selling their old weapons to various nefarious arms dealers.

This shipment happened to crash, and that’s the only reason we are hearing about it.

(Via Daily Mail) –  Soldiers in hazmat suits searched for signs of nuclear and chemical substances at the crash site of a Ukrainian cargo plane transporting nearly a dozen tons of mortar shells and land mines.

The Antonov An-12 light aircraft, which was transporting the weapons from Serbia to Bangladesh, had eight Ukrainian crew members onboard. They were all killed. 

An official at Kyiv cargo operator Meridian told Reuters: ‘Of course they didn’t survive this.’  Eyewitnesses filmed the fireball crash in the early hours today, with explosions continuing for two hours and the charred wreckage burning until morning.

Drone images from the scene showed debris from the bulking aircraft strewn in fields.  Serbia’s defense minister said the plane was carrying 11.5 tonnes of products made by its defense industry and the buyer was Bangladesh defense ministry.   Greek authorities could not provide any more information on the aircraft’s cargo. (more)

Previously Russia was reporting to have captured a massive Ukranian military weapons cache near Kharkov (northeastern Ukraine).  I wrote about it HERE.  However, the video (partial screengrab below) was quickly removed by the internet police.

The doomed weapons shipment supposedly originated from Serbia, so the original source could be either Ukraine or Russia.  Who knows?  Amid all of the propaganda, Ukraine corruption and furious U.S. arms shipments into Ukraine, there are multiple sketchy participants likely involved in selling the arms on the global black market.

FUBAR

Texas House Committee Releases Interim Report on Uvalde School Shooting, Press Conference and Link to Report


Posted originally on the conservative tree house July 17, 2022 | Sundance

The families of the Uvalde Robb Elementary school shooting victims met privately Sunday with a Texas House committee who released an interim report on the events that took place.  [Link to 77-Page Report Here] Following that private meeting the committee held a press conference where they spoke about the report and took questions.

The committee, led by State Rep. Dustin Burrows, shared what they learned as they looked into the school shooting.  “If there’s only one thing that I can tell you is there were multiple systemic failures. I would invite everyone to read the entire report,” Burrows said at the press conference. “You cannot cherry-pick one sentence and use it to say everything without reading and without context. But if we need a simple phrase to describe what the report says, again I would tell you multiple systemic failures.”  WATCH:

Interim Report Here

Former Obama Economic Advisor Says Best Way to Deal with Inflation is to Raise Taxes and Plunge Main Street into a Recession


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 17, 2022 | Sundance 

Jason Furman is the former Chairman of the National Economic Council under Barack Obama; he is currently a professor at Harvard teaching economics.   If you ever wondered why the economy under Obama included the weakest economic recovery in history, the advice of Furman might explain it.

In an interview with CBS this morning, Jason Furman says the best way to get inflation under control is to raise taxes and stop people from spending money.  This approach will impact the demand side of the economy and as a result, with no one purchasing stuff, it will lower prices.   Seriously, no joke, he said this. WATCH:

Jason Furm: …”Congress should be trying to do their part and helping out if they can cut the deficit, including raising taxes on high income households, that would reduce a bit of spending in the economy, it would cool the economy down a little bit, and actually take some pressure off the Fed.”…

Create a deeper recession to control inflation, brilliant!

Like I have been pointing out for months, these ideologues believe inflation is being driven by the demand side, by consumers purchasing too much.  They pretend not to know it is the supply-side issue of energy policy that is driving the CORE inflation they seek to reduce.

.

Harvard Economics Professor Jason Furman reminds me of this:

Whatever Happened to the Information of The DNC Law Firm Having an FBI Search Portal in Their DC Office?


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 17, 2022 | Sundance 

On May 31st, Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL) made an explosive announcement as an outcome of a whistleblower providing information to him and Jim Jordan.  The claim was the FBI held a collaborative relationship with the Clinton/DNC law firm Perkins Coie. {Go Deep} Specifically, the explosive element surrounded the FBI having a workspace within the DNC law firm that would give Democrats an open portal into FBI databases for political opposition research.

Additionally, formerly indicted Clinton campaign lawyer, Michael Sussmann, was reportedly in charge of this arrangement within Perkins Coie for the past year.  Obviously, the potential ramifications from this joint collaboration are vast.  However, have you noticed that not a single media outlet has followed up on the claim?

Generally, in Washington DC when the media ignores an issue, especially a major issue with large consequences; and doesn’t even attempt to snarkily debunk an explosive claim or belittle the person bringing the information; it’s usually because the claim itself has merit and the DC defenders do not want to give it any fuel for further discussion or awareness. {Direct Rumble Link}

So, what happened?

Essentially, what is being claimed is that a portal exists into FBI databases within the law firm that represents democrats.  This means access to FBI database searches exists inside the office of the DNC and Clinton legal group.  Think about the ramifications here.

If the whistleblower claim is accurate, the FBI can exploit the NSA database to conduct searches of all cell phone, computer, email, text message, social media, electronic communication and all private data/communication belonging to Americans; this would include geolocation.  If the FBI was operating within Perkins Coie since 2012, then the democrats have held access to fully intrusive electronic surveillance of their political opposition, or anyone else – anywhere, for a decade.

The FBI and DNC law firm working collaboratively on issues of joint importance goes far beyond the ‘image of impropriety or conflicted interest‘ and extends to the actual corruption within the foundational institutions of government.

Transparently, if these reports are accurate all of the inexplicable dynamics within the “two tiers of justice” suddenly reconcile.  The FBI and Perkins Coie having the ability to conduct electronic surveillance of any target is a major level of sunlight, that would reconcile years of visible issues.

Where is the follow-up?

CTH has long claimed there was some kind of direct portal link between the Clinton campaign team and the FBI databases.  There were too many trails of extracted non-minimized research evidence in the hands of the Clinton team that CTH could not trace to a transferring FBI official.  If Perkins Coie operated a portal in their office that allowed them to conduct search queries of American citizens, then everything would make sense.  That access portal is exactly what is being claimed and admitted in this report.

The start date of 2012 is important for several reasons, not the least of which is FISA presiding Judge Rosemary Collyer criticizing the scale and scope of unlawful FBI database access going back to exactly 2012.  Keep in mind a FISA-702 search, is simply an unlawful FBI warrantless electronic search of an American (“702” represents the American citizen) into the central database -maintained by the NSA- that contains all electronic data and communication.

I have been in the deep hole of the FISA-702 database search query violations for so long I don’t even need a flashlight.

The report from Matt Gaetz about Perkins Coie access to FBI databases, is in direct alignment with Rosemary Collyer’s prior report on FBI abuses of the database, 702 violations.  Notice the dates and scope Judge Collyer references [Source Link].

Non-compliant queries since 2012.

85% of the FBI and contractor searches are unlawful.

Many of those searches involved the use of the “same identifiers over different data ranges.”  Put in plain terms, the same people were continually being tracked, searched and surveilled by querying the FBI database over time.

The non-compliant searches go back to 2012.  The same date mentioned for the FBI portal to begin operating inside the Perkins Coie office.

This specific footnote is a key.  Note the phrase: “([redacted] access to FBI systems was the subject of an interagency memorandum of understanding entered into [redacted])”, this sentence has the potential to expose an internal decision; withheld from congress and the FISA court by the Obama administration; that outlines a process for access and distribution of surveillance data.

Note: “no notice of this practice was given to the FISC until 2016“, that is important.

Summary: The FISA court identified and quantified tens-of-thousands of search queries of the NSA/FBI database using the FISA-702(16)(17) system. The database was repeatedly used by persons with contractor access who unlawfully searched and extracted the raw results without redacting the information and shared it with an unknown number of entities.

The outlined process certainly points toward a political spying and surveillance operation.  When the DOJ use of the IRS for political information on their opposition became problematic, the Obama administration needed another tool.  It was in 2012 when they switched to using the FBI databases for targeted search queries.

This information from Jim Jordan and Matt Gaetz had the potential to be extremely explosive.  However, the absence of any follow-up reporting, or even debunking from the traditional guardians of the DC swamp is weird.  What’s going on?

I wrote about these suspicions in depth throughout 2017, 2018 and eventually summarized in 2019:

SEE HERE.

Sunday Talks, Biden Energy Security Coordinator Amos Hochstein Spins Saudi Trip and Need for Windmills


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 17, 2022 | Sundance

CBS pretentious pretender Margaret Brennan interviews Joe Biden’s Energy Security Coordinator Amos Hochstein about the trip to the Gulf Arab States and subsequent energy policy developments.  [CBS Transcript Here] Hochstein spins the non-existing benefits of the trip by attributing the pre-existing Saudi cease-fire in Yemen as an outcome of Biden talking to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Quite a stretch.

Hochstein still thinks there is going to be a way for ‘western governments‘ to place price caps on Russian oil exports by getting the entire planet to agree only to pay Russia a set price for oil.  With Russia an OPEC+ member, and the members of OPEC not in ideological alignment with the Biden administration on a host of geopolitical issues, good luck with that.  The producers (OPEC) have control over what prices the consumers (Non OPEC) pay; they are not going to give up that mechanism just to please the Biden administration.

On the domestic front, while there is little possibility of a global oil production increase from OPEC, Hochstein claims to have assurances from U.S. oil producers they will increase their production capacity by November.  At the same time the institutions in charge of Biden energy policy are going to keep targeting the oil producers to destroy them. Quite a weird dynamic.   Hochstein finishes by saying solar and windmills are the future of U.S. energy production and if we invest more, well, we can save the planet. WATCH:

It is worth remembering what MbS said about the meeting: “We agree on many things, but we differ on a few others. Every country has its own culture and circumstances. I respect yours, you respect mine. Do not impose your culture on us. Do not impose your beliefs on us.” … “We agree we need to do more for climate change, but you guys are doing it wrong by favoring certain energy sources over others. The world needs energy security. We need all energy sources including oil & gas. We are doing our part on both fronts: climate change & energy security.” … “The stage of a country’s economic & social development must be considered in climate change negotiations.” … “We are increasing our production capacity to 13 million barrels per day (from 12 mb/d), but that is it. We cannot do more.”

The message here is: You guys do your part and invest more if you want to avoid energy crises, recessions and unemployment. Do NOT blame us!

[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: Welcome back to Face The Nation. As President Biden met with Middle Eastern leaders last week, he was accompanied by Amos Hochstein, the Special Presidential Coordinator for International Energy Affairs. He’s with us now. Mr. Hochstein, Welcome to Face The Nation. Good to have you here in person.

PRESIDENTIAL COORDINATOR ON ENERGY SECURITY AMOS HOCHSTEIN: It’s great to be in person. Thank you.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So you were one of the few US officials in the room when President Biden met with Saudi leaders. Why was this trip worth the political risk? What did you get?

HOCHSTEIN: Well, I think this was a historic trip. First, it started just landing in Saudi Arabia in Jeddah, as the first-ever flight from for a president to fly from Israel, directly to Saudi Arabia, with the backdrop of Saudi Arabia, opening the announcing that they’re opening the skies for the first time for Israeli Aircraft, for all aircraft, including flights to and from Israel over its airspace, comes on the backdrop of a major achievement over the last few months of a ceasefire in Yemen, where 1000s of people have been killed. Over the last seven years, this has been the longest ceasefire we’ve had with a commitment from Saudi Arabia to work to extend the ceasefire even further; major announcements for food security and achieving contributions from the GCC from the Gulf countries on food security.

MARGARET BRENNAN: But none on oil, yet.

HOCHSTEIN: Well, we had a major announcement on cooperation on energy writ large. And if you recall, just before the President announced his trip just a few days before that OPEC+ made a- a major shift and its policies, recognizing that since Putin started amassing forces, the markets have been affected, and that there was a supply-demand issue and announced increases in supply over 50% for July and August. And I’m, based on what we heard, on the trip, I’m pretty confident that we’ll see a few more steps in the coming weeks.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So OPEC+ meets August 3. Saudi has some, very little spare capacity. So are you saying you got a wink and a nod that they’re going to pump more?

HOCHSTEIN: I think what we discussed, first of all, it’s not just about Saudi, it’s about we met with with the GCC and with Saudi Arabia. There is, I’m not going to go into how much spare capacity there is in Saudi Arabia and in UAE and Kuwait, etc. But there is additional spare capacity, there is room for increased production. As we’ve told producers in the United States, we’ve had conversations over the last several months and weeks, with OPEC. And I believe that there is still more room to-to see additional steps.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Saudi says it’s got like a million spare barrel capacity.

HOCHSTEIN: Again, it’s not just about Saudi, this is OPEC. So, there are other countries as well. So, we needed to see a little bit more. But let’s-let’s look at what has happened since the President announced his trip. Oil prices at that point were at about $120. Today, oil prices are around $100, $101. So that’s a $20 decline based on the steps–

MARGARET BRENNAN: –some of that economic concerns, though China, looking like it’s slowing and concerns here about consumption going down.

HOCHSTEIN: So there’s no doubt there’s never one reason why oil prices go up while goes down. As you know, in oil prices go up, they tend to say there’s only one reason; that’s the part of the political leadership. But if you think about it this way, over the last few months, the President has supplied the US market with a million barrels a day, which is a historic level from the strategic reserve. We’ve never done that before.

MARGARET BRENNAN: And that, what, ends in September?

HOCHSTEIN: No that-that will end towards the end of the year.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Will it end towards the end of the year? Can you afford to stop putting emergency supply on the market?

HOCHSTEIN: Well, look at what has happened. The private sector, as we talked to them, the United States said they can increase production in the United States by about a million barrels a day. But it’s going to take time to invest in it, it will come at the end of the year. So we stepped in, the president stepped in and said ‘I’ll fill that gap.’ So hopefully, my expectation is that the private sector in the US will have those increases coming, so we don’t need to have the emergency from the US government. In the meantime, we’ve seen the prices, both the oil price, but also the price of the pump has come down at the fastest rate that we have seen in over a decade. So, from over $5. And remember this just a few weeks ago–

MARGARET BRENNAN: –still pretty high, but it’s still pretty high. It may have come down a bit.

HOCHSTEIN It’s not $5 anymore, it’s now $4.55. And I expect it to come down more towards $4. And we already have many gas stations around the country that are below $4. So we’re this is the fastest decline rate that we’ve seen against a major increase in oil prices during a war in Europe, where one of the parties in the war is the third largest producer in the world. So these are extraordinary circumstances we’ve taken very tough measures to address them right away, both for the American consumer but really for global economy, too.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, we’ll watch to see if those gas prices continue to fall. I want to ask you about what the administration is pushing around the world which is this concept of putting a cap on the price of Russian oil that is sold, so that it’s not cutting back on the amount but rather the windfall profits Putin can profit off of it. What’s to stop Vladimir Putin from just saying, fine, I’m just going to stop pumping.

HOCHSTEIN: Well, I think that the wait, look the price cap is–

MARGARET BRENNAN: –Does that ruin your plan, if he does that?

HOCHSTEIN: Well, first, he could do that tomorrow, regardless of what we do on a price gap. You know, Putin has been an unreliable supplier, unfortunately. But I think what we’re doing is we’re designing the mechanisms so that he can still, he’d still would have revenues he needs those revenues to, that’s the only revenues he really has in his country. There’s nothing else in Russia except for oil and gas.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, JP Morgan says he’s got enough cash that he’s sitting on, that he could cut by 5 million barrels in that extreme example, that the price of oil would go up to over $300 a barrel, almost $400 dollars a barrel.

HOCHSTEIN: Well, what we want to be able to do is to mitigate where the price of oil on the world market doesn’t actually impact Russia at all, because we’re going to put a price cap, so that all they have is to get that price at no more than that.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Right.

HOCHSTEIN: We believe that that is the way to do it. So if prices go up, he still won’t get that price and we can reduce that price.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Why would India or China comply?

Well, first, at the G7, a couple of weeks ago, the G7 endorsed this idea as a good idea. We’re now starting to have the conversations with the major consumers. And I would ask the question the other way around, doesn’t every buyer try to get a lower price? So, I think every buyer is incentivized to pay less. And I’ll go a step further. Right now, regardless of what you see as the global oil price. That’s not what Putin’s getting. So these headlines about Putin getting some kind of a math between how much is he selling times the price of oil in the world, that’s not his revenue, because he’s already agreed to major discounts–

MARGARET BRENNAN: –He’s still taking in money and he’s still funding this war. So–

HOCHSTEIN: That’s what we’re trying to stop.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Right. But in the meantime, I want to ask you quickly about the president’s climate change efforts, this bill, and his proposal is completely stalled right now. The president says he’s going to take executive action, what is the plan? What are you going to actually do here in the United States?

HOCHSTEIN: Well, I think we’ve tried to get a plan where we can incentivize, great incentives for US investors–

MARGARET BRENNAN: –But you can’t block new oil and gas drilling, right? You can’t do some of those things, because they would counter your efforts.

HOCHSTEIN: Well, I think what we want to do in this in this bill that we’ve proposed, and we are hopeful that we still hope that that’s what Congress does, is to give it the kind of incentive assurances that we can have additional American investment in climate, renewable energy electric vehicles. Why wouldn’t we want to do that? Why would we want to make-to create an environment in which China is ahead of us? The rest of the world is making the investments and we’re not. We want to be able to put the kind of incentives that will be additional investment in the infrastructure for renewable energy, for solar, for wind, and for electric vehicles and for our nuclear fleet in this country. That’s how we get to climate. We didn’t get that today. The President is determined to take some action that he can through executive orders, and through other actions. We’ll see what we can do this weekend in the coming weeks. But again, I think that the responsibility here is to be able to invest into our future, whether we like it or not this those-some don’t like it. This is the future of energy markets in the United States and around the world. We got to decide do we want the US to lead, or do we want the Chinese to lead this?

MARGARET BRENNAN: You got to convince Senator Joe Manchin, we’ll be talking about that ahead in the segment, thank you very much for coming in. [LINK]

…”And then he said, Texas has no wind for the windmills.  Yes, Texas!”