Monthly Archives: October 2017

Oct 27 2017

Gold Better in Euros than Dollars?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Euro €

Re-Posted Oct 27, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: G’day guys.
Thanks for a great seminar in Hong Kong!
I’m reading through your 1 world currency report and find it very interesting, going back to primary school teachings about barter systems and some funny monetary acceptances that have been in place many years ago. Like 14.5 kg copper plates as a currency only back in the 1600’s in Sweden. Or 1-ton barrels of tobacco. Very interesting and tough to carry in your wallet.
The major teaching I received from the Hong Kong Seminar was to look at the currencies (something I’ve had plenty of lessons dealt over the years trying to trade) in regard to products and assets in the many different countries around the world.
My question now we are seeing bitcoins and possibly diamonds and other mediums we are not yet aware of yet replacing gold as a new vehicle to move cash or wealth into a better performing countries assets.
With the collapse about to occur in Europe and Britain included monetary wise. Instead of buying gold in relation to USD one should buy gold against the Euro’s or Pounds when the time is right?
Or has a gold lost its lustre today and the contagion to gold may not occur to the extremes that have occurred in the past?
Will Europe money tell the story? The smart money is moving to the DOW. Will it return to gold when the people lose their confidence?
Thanks for the interesting and new way of looking at the markets Marty. I’m doing better with Socrates though still a novice.
Take care and wish I was coming to the next conference. Hope it’s a beauty.
A

ANSWER: Gold has lost its movability aspect as they hunt money for taxes. Twenty years ago you could hop on a plane with a briefcase of gold with no problem. From that perspective, gold has lost its international portability. This is obviously why people are turning to diamonds, rare ancient coins, and the like – movable assets. We are even witnessing real estate starting to decline now in New York City. The high-end real estate market (not the low-end) was making new highs as big money was trying to get off the grid. Realtors were reporting to us that the major of such high-end deals were all for cash – no mortgages.

Gold would certainly be a better hedge against the Euro than the dollar. It has outperformed the dollar because you always have to look at the currency. However, money will NEVER shift from the stock market all into gold. Everyone has their pet investment in what they feel comfortable. Gold is a retail product – not institutional. The Institutions can trade ETFs, gold stocks etc., but they will never take possession of gold.

What we are facing in truth is a currency reset. That means that ALL tangible assets rise against the currency in whatever country we are talking about. The goldbugs always hate the dollar and many of them have turned away from gold and into cryptocurrencies.

You will always have people who will prefer stocks, others gold, and others real estate, That is just the way it is. To each their own.

Oct 27 2017

Do You Really Think Politicians Can Stop Climate Change?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Oct 27, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; It appears that politicians are attributing any change in the climate to human activity. They have simply either gone mad or just insane, seriously distorting everything to gain more power and taxes. Now  Christine Lagarde said: “As I’ve said before if we don’t do anything about climate change now, in 50 years’ time we will be toasted, roasted and grilled.” She is not even elected by anyone yet is dictating the trend globally.

PD

REPLY: Yes, the phrase “climate change” has come to mean “blaming humans for changing the climate by using oil and gas and coal.” They act as if the climate should be linear and always the same from one year to the next. They fail to even account for the historical record of ice ages and warming periods long before we started using oil, gas, or coal. There is no doubt that the climate is changing for that is the cyclical nature of all things. The only thing more absurd than blaming humans for “climate change” is assuming politicians can stop it from changing. They cannot find the missing $3 trillion+ from the defense budget no less manage the economy and prevent the business cycle from booms and busts.

Oct 26 2017

Report: Las Vegas Shooting Witness “Hero” Jose Campos Fled to Mexico Immediately After Shooting…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 25, 2017 by

If any more concerning information was needed to add fuel to growing skepticism of the official Mandalay Bay Massacre narrative the latest information is exponentially concerning.

According to border crossing documents provided to Fox News Tucker Carlson, the Mandalay Bay employee, eyewitness and security guard (labeled hero), Jose’ Campos, fled to Mexico immediately after the Las Vegas shooting and resurfaced a week later driving back through the San Diego crossing.

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Why officials would allow Campos to leave the country immediately after the shooting only leads to further speculation about the official story, his attachment to a manufactured narrative and his immigration status.

Obviously without honest, consistent or reliable information from officials; and considering their official position not to conduct any further press conferences; and accepting Jose Campos is now being tightly managed by Mandalay Bay to include no further media questioning; speculation will fill the void.

That said, the behavior outlined in the latest revelation would lend more credibility to the original concern that Jose Campos is an illegal alien and returned to the U.S. only after gaining assurances from national officials (FBI/DHS) that his status would not be used against him in turn for cooperation.

If Jesus “Jose” Campos is indeed an illegal alien almost all of the challenging and conflicting reports from law enforcement, Mandalay Bay and the FBI begin to reconcile.

Think about it. The legal risk to MGM as a corporation, and Mandalay Bay hotel and Casino specifically, becomes transparent if their employment verification standards would allow an illegal alien to find a job as a security guard.

This would explain the local and national concerns within the larger political and national security apparatus. Think about how dramatically the national conversation could shift if the FBI and Department of Homeland Security had to admit the security of thousands of people in Las Vegas was compromised by non secure hiring practices.

This would also explain why Campos was unarmed; he would not pass a state or federal background check to carry a firearm. Was Jose Campos in fear of his status being discovered? Did this delay or impede his action on Sunday night October 1st?

Factually, the possibility of Campos illegal status would represent a transparent risk to all stakeholders in the event and lead directly toward a position of legal amnesty.

STAKEHOLDERS: ♦Las Vegas, almost entirely dependent on tourism, needs to present an image of safety and security. ♦Las Vegas Metropolitan Police need to present an image of competency and security control. ♦Mandalay Bay, the MGM corporation and the larger hotel and casino industry, need to reduce any culpability and liability; as well as portray their action as prudent and secure before the attack, and competent in the aftermath. ♦Federal crisis management with direct influence over investigative authorities (FBI and DHS) need to portray an impression of national security and control.

Previously, Ellen Degeneres, an insider within the entertainment industry, and a stakeholder in the outcome, was a friendly venue to control Campos interview and shape the “hero” narrative.

(Via Daily Mail) Mandalay Bay shooting hero Jesus Campos was pressured into giving his only interview to Ellen DeGeneres because the giant company that owns the Las Vegas casino feared he would spill the beans about the shooting timeline if he was grilled by real journalists, DailyMail.com has learned exclusively.

MGM is worried that families of the 58 people murdered as well as many of the 546 injured in the Mandalay Bay massacre will launch lawsuits potentially worth billions of dollars against the company, sources tell DailyMail.com.

And they thought Campos might not keep his story straight under the pressure of the TV lights and tough questioning. (link)

Las Vegas investigative authorities (LVMPD and FBI) have stated they will provide no additional press conferences or information on the worst mass shooting in U.S. history.

Oct 26 2017

Cars Sales Dropping as Taxes Rise


Armstrong Economics Blog/Europe’s Economic History

Re-Posted Oct 26, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The demand for cars has been declining rapidly in Britain and that is impacting German car sales rather sharply. All price levels in cars have been declining, not just the high end. The sales figures for small cars and the medium class have already declined significantly in the last few months. Now the losses are also becoming apparent in the case of expensive brands, especially for the German car manufacturers.

As taxes have risen upon the average person and this hunt for more tax revenue unfolds globally, this is what creates the recession and deflation. It a strange paradox for many as they see deficit spending rise. Many have a hard time comprehending that if the money supply increases, how can there be deflation? It is always the bottom-line. If you keep raising taxes, you will reduce the standard of living, and that in turn comes back and results in lower economic activity.

Oct 26 2017

The Way to the Future – Cryptos Move Over


Armstrong Economics Blog/Technology

Re-Posted Oct 26, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Maldives has introduced what may become the next innovation. Maldives Immigration has introduced a new type of ID card that replaces your credit card, passport, drivers license and healthcare insurance card all wrapped up in one. The next step will be to put this on a biochip and insert it into your skin so a thief would have to cut your arm off to steal it. Guess we are getting closer to the Minority Report. Hm

Oct 26 2017

China Moving to Take the Lead in Technology


Armstrong Economics Blog/China

Re-Posted Oct 26, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

China is moving rapidly to advance and take the lead in technology from the United States and they will accomplish that in the years ahead. China is moving very fast on every front. China is moving faster on quantum communications and computing and they are embracing real Artificial Intelligence that is being ignored by the powers that be in the US government.

We were granted our business license in China BECAUSE of our technology while the USA keeps trying to suppress technology advancement in our field. That means the government even had to review the conflicts with the USA and dismissed them as all other nations as being “stitched up” as one put it in Europe.

The regulators in the USA have one policy – if the big boys do it it’s OK. They are Too Big to Fail, Too Big to Jail, but big enough to hire government employees. Anyone else has to be regulated when the regulators do not even understand what they are doing. The bottom-line policy at the US regulators – if they do not understand it, regulate it out of existence. You are not allowed to compete against New York City.

In the United States, there remains over regulation because the government is clueless about technology. The next crisis will be really worse than 2007-2009 because they have chased so many from the marketplace with fines and regulations that make no sense. The SEC has had to announce strengthening rules for their own people in trading on inside information. The more regulators we have the more corruption that exists. I have stated before, when I was managing positions for the Onassis estate in commodities, I had the larges physical position in Platinum. It took six months to get permission to trade at that level way beyond exchange limits and when I picked up the phone the first time, everyone already knew the size of my position. So much for regulators. Today, positions of managers over $100 million in assets must be reported to the SEC. You can bet that i8nfo is handed out under the table.

In quick succession, China in recent months has utilized a quantum satellite to transmit ultra-secure data, inaugurated a 1,243-mile quantum link between Shanghai and Beijing, and announced a $10 billion quantum computing center. The USA cannot even compete with this level of technology yet. We have been a full green light on our systems. There is no question that China will be the dominant economy after 2032.

Oct 25 2017

New Zealand to Foreigners – Get Out!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Australia & Oceania

Re-Posted Oct 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The New Zealand Prime Minister that took the country back into Marxism, has fired its first shot across the bow.  The Labour party have formally signed a coalition agreement, introducing all new policies focusing on climate change, regional development, and poverty which translates into hunting the hated rich. Thirty-seven-year-old Jacinda Ardern, a member of the New Zealand Labour Party, became the world’s youngest female leader. Hillary must be crying in her martini.

Nevertheless, PM Ardern has just fired the first shot across the bow and this is a serious warning that foreign investment better cross New Zealand off the list of places that will be up-and-coming.  She has banned foreigners from buying property in New Zealand. The first proposal was to ban any migration to New Zealand as well. That they had to back off of given the refugee impression and that would have agreed with Trump – OMG!

She thinks banned foreign property ownership will cool off the property market. The problem will be, a property crash. When home values decline, people feel they lost money and they spend less. With rising property values, people feel they are better-off and spend more assu8ming they have equity even if they do not borrow against it.

She may be the youngest female leader in the world, but she also is clueless about economics.

Oct 25 2017

Hillary’s What Happened – She Lost & It Was Her Fault!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Oct 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Hillary is running around pitching her book – What Happened. Of course, we all know the answer – she lost. The problem is that she takes no blame for that and like a fool who buys the market at the top, they come up with conspiracy theories to blame everyone else for their failed investment.

The four people she is blaming all has to do with the leaked emails, none of which has she EVER claimed they were fake or altered. So her whole argument is that someone leaked the truth. Her own staff said she set up a private server so she could be free from a FOIA request. If she did not do that, Comey would not have had to investigate.

The last on the list is Richard Murdock. One member of the press who was against her when she had everyone else in her pocket from the New York Times to CNN, seems a bit absurd. The press was biased in her favor – not Trumps’s.

Hillary has also blamed women for not voting for her. She obviously has just refused to accept any responsibility whatsoever. Who cannot forget she would not even go out to thank her supporters when she lost. She sent Podesta to go do it. No candidate in history has ever been that upset at losing that they did not address their supporters that night.

Hillary has displayed for the whole world to see that she has no real character to be a leader of anything, no less the free world

Oct 25 2017

Diamonds replacing Gold?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold

Re-Posted Oct 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

There has been an effort to use diamonds in place of gold since you can travel with them without setting off metal detectors. But the real problem has been the untrained eye can easily be fooled. The Singapore Diamond Investment Exchange (SDiX), has launched a new product they hope to compete with gold. Perhaps this may have some traction, but again, it is hard to see how this will really compete with gold unless someone is trying to move money from one country to another.

Oct 25 2017

Saudi Arabia in Search of Cash


Armstrong Economics Blog/Middle East

Re-Posted Oct 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

QUESTION: I read your blog about the Saudi’s potentially selling a large private equity position from China in Aramco rather than accessing the public markets. You have pointed out the need for the Saudi’s to modernize their economy to be less dependent on oil income and to monetize that resource for capital improvements/diversification, but how do they do that without giving away to much control over their oil resources to China?  Wouldn’t a single significant stake by a private investor (country in this case) give up to much control over their single greatest resource (at least for the immediate future)?  I’m thinking of the disaster that is Venezuela as an example of the poor employment of foreign investment.
ANSWER: I fully understand your point. However, the Saudi’s need money. They spent too much money expecting oil to be $200 forever. They are now starting to issue bonds. Saudi Arabia has peaked economically and looks at UAE and sees the diversification. But Saudi Arabia would have to relax their religion. Here is a picture I took on the beach in Abu Dhabi. They are tolerant of Western Culture. You cannot create a world economy without separation of church and state.
Venezuela has always been a ruthless dictatorship. The wealth from oil never made it to the people.