Temperatures are Plunging


global-cooling

COMMENT: Marty; It’s below freezing in Athens. This is the coldest I have ever felt here in a long time. The average temperature is normally 10°C (50°F). I do not understand how people keep calling this global warming.

weather-temp-usa-1-8-2017

REPLY: The data being put out as propaganda has been indexed at a higher base. Without adjustments, the Antarctica, which the Washington Post said was the hottest year, was one of the coldest. Europe went really cold and in the USA, it plunged as well. Even down here in Tampa, Florida it fell to 30 degrees at night. It was too cold to walk around.

The real data is alarming. The plunge in temperatures is happening faster than expected. Not sure if this is a taste of what is to come. Hope the poles don’t flip for we are overdue for that event as well. (See special report on the Maya).

The only way to get honest data is end taxing for global warming. Keep the regulation to prevent spewing out pollution. Let’s be honest. It was the regulations that cleaned the air – not the recent taxes for global warming.  The government has a vested interest in such propaganda and cannot admit the research is bogus without then having to drop the taxes. So it is a one way street. Global warming/climate change = taxes revenue.

Even in economics, government needs a study for every bill they pass like Obamacare. They tell you what the conclusion must be and then hand you millions to support the bill with a predetermined conclusion for a study. You do as they command and you make millions for writing fictional novels regardless of the subject.

They whole system is skewed to corruption. That is why whenever we provide ANY help to governments, WE REFUSE to accept any payment whatsoever. Take 50 cents from government and you quickly find there is a string attached. We have ALWAYS donated our time to all governments and have never taken one cent in return or favors. Governments around the globe come to us all the time when they want to know what is really happening. The “economists” they pay for fake studies they also do not listen to because they know the reality of their forecasts. It’s all just a game. Even when I testified before Congress, the House Way & Means Committee apologized for having to create a panel with these bought economists and put me on last because they had no other “real” people to testify.

Gridlock: Trump’s First 100 Days Will Be the Most Chaotic In American History


The second to last paragraph in cap’s is very very important and is the only way that we can beat the progressive Democrats and the RINO’s

Bonds & Climate Change


ubcbt-q-1-2-2017-gmw

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your Global Market Watch picked the high in bonds perfectly and called it a major high. I have to say, the system you have created monitoring everything is an incredible teaching tool. I can see what you are saying. There is a major global trend that politicians cannot alter and that is why communism fell and socialism is falling now. Do you believe we can advance this time around when it crashes and burns?

Thanks

BM

ANSWER: Believe it or not, I am an eternal optimist; foolish at times. I gave up trying to help behind the curtain because I came to witness how politics works. You can tell a politicians to do this or there will be a crash. They will not listen for a simple reason. No politician can run for office saying, “Vote for me, I saved your job.” You would ask, “How do I know I would have lost it?” Politics is about winning. It is far better to run for office by promising change but never delivering. The political situation is simple. They like the crisis for then they launch investigations to get the guy who caused it. They will never prevent it, for that does not have the same impact at the polls.

sixth-wave-ecm-2032

Society goes through these convulsions roughly every 309 years or so. They build in intensity and that is what we now face — the Sixth Wave. On the cyclical time line, we are at the point where the collapse of Rome came about with the Sixth Wave back then.

sixth-wave-ecm-greek-roman

 

Before that, there was the Minoan Collapse.

sixth-wave-ecm-minoan

This is the third major wave. Either we go into a Dark Age, as took place after the last two groups, or we advance. I would like to think we can do this and reform the way things work. Maybe I am just wrong and we will fail. I realize the only way to take that one giant leap for humankind is if the PEOPLE understand why we never advance and say enough is enough.

So the more people we can move to understand the business cycle and DEMAND change, the better chance we have of taking a leap forward instead of backwards.

ECM-Dynamic

The ECM will still exist. We cannot alter that. The volatility (intensity) we can influence perhaps. Of course, the Minoan collapse was instigated by one of the largest volcanic eruptions in history — Thera (Santorini). The fall of Rome came with climate change when everything turned down much colder and resulted in the invasions of the barbarians who were migrating South.

global-warming-cyclical

These groups of Six Waves tend to coincide with the collapse in the energy output of the sun. The climate change we are heading into is by no means global warming, it is back down to record cold. That is not good in the least for civilization.

How to Reason about Islam


To reason about Islam, do not use the Koran and Allah, because the Koran is structured to be hard to understand. Instead, use the Sunna of Mohammed. The Koran says 91 times that Mohammed is the perfect Muslim and he is very easy to understand. We find Mohammed in his traditions, the Hadith, and his biography, the Sira.

When we use Mohammed to explain Islam, we do what the Koran commands. Every hadith that I use is called Sahih (authentic), since I use Bukhari and Abu Muslim.

Sometimes you meet a Muslim who rejects all of the Sunna, so how do you use Mohammed? Simple, the Koran by itself cannot be understood by any person, without knowing the life of Mohammed. No Mohammed equals no understanding of the Koran.

The Koran is the perfect, exact words of Allah. However, the perfect Koran cannot be understood without knowing Mohammed. However, the life of Mohammed and his traditions were written by people who never met him, but wrote down what they heard from others. In a court of law, this is called hearsay. Hearsay is not admissible in our courts. So the perfect book cannot be understood without evidence that cannot be used in our courts. Odd, isn’t it?

The Share Market & the Future


Curiousity-Question

QUESTION: As a small retail investor, what would Marty suggest to invest in if in fact we break the 23000 level on the DOW and we do in fact get the phase transition that he is talking about?  Furthermore, what would he use to profit from it?  Shares in particular stocks, futures contracts or options in the DOW index?  Lastly, if this phase transition does happen, what is the longest time frame that it would last, 12 to 18 months?

Thank Marty for all that he has done for us little guys.  He has really opened my eyes to what is going on in this world.

J

ANSWER: In 2017, I will publish a breakdown of sectors and the differences between them. Keep in mind that the bulk of the retail public are not yet back in the market. The majority keeps saying how overvalued the market is, yet a substantial amount of people are all looking to buy the dip. Trump will be very good for the US markets and economy. Reducing taxes will bring capital home and it has already resulted in a new 13-year high in consumer confidence. That is the key to the market going into 2018.

The reflection point that will tip the scales to extremely bullish will turn on confidence. What MUST BE UNDERSTOOD here is we have two possible patterns: (1) We leave 2016 as the intraday high temporarily and back off, moving to retest support into 2018, and then rally in a major breakout into 2020, or (2) we press immediately higher and complete the rally by 2018 followed by a harder crash and burn.

These are the two possible paths that are coming up and it will all depend upon the actions and tone we set in January. We will prepare a very important special report on this topic.

Merkel’s Refugee Nightmare


refugee-set-man-on-fire

The prospect of Merkel winning reelection dwindle with each terrorist attack. This time refugee “youths” set a homeless person on fire in the Berlin underground station. They have been identified as refugees from Syria and Libya, police confirmed. The set a homeless person on fire as he slept in the train station Christmas Eve. It is not yet clear, but they all may have been what are commonly known as “MUFLs” (minor unaccompanied refugees).
Most Arab countries are now refusing to accept any return of refugees. What began as Merkel’s ploy to switch the topic from her hard-line policy on Greece to make her appear compassionate opening the doors to refugees, has proven to be far more costly than helping Greece. Merkel has torn Europe apart and will bring her election to a failure.
Mother-MerkelIt all began when on July 15, 2015, Time Magazine wrote, “Berlin’s role as the enforcer in negotiations over Greece’s debt could cause lasting damage to Germany’s global image.” Merkel has kept her own poll people to make sure she turns and stays with the popular swings. When her images was tanking dure to her policies in Greece, this is when, without a European vote, she flipped solely for her personal political career. The Washington Times wrote on September 10, 2015, “Angela Merkel welcomes refugees to Germany despite rising anti-immigrant movement.” 
934-ECM 2011 - 2020The entire refugee crisis was created by Merkel as a diversion because Germany was being viewed as the harsh enforcer of loans, which were structured to hide what Goldman Sachs had instituted to get Greece into the euro from the outset. The entire reason for the refugee crisis was simply the view of Merkel globally. She needed to reshape her image from the loan shark to the caring Mother Merkel. Europe is now paying the price because career politicians were simply concerned about her polls.
The Refugee Crisis thus began with the peak in government our model projected for October 1st, 2015 (2015.75). When Russia invaded Syria on the very day of the Economic Confidence Model, it signaled that Syria would be a focal point of this wave. The Refugee Crisis has been monumental. The United States has been trying to overthrow Syria for Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The outrage of the fighting in Aleppo has criticized Russia without any mention of who they are fighting – rebels supported by the CIA. Finally, the CIA has acknowledges having played a military role in Syria. It appears to be retiring, in order not to be associated with atrocities recently discovered by the Russians carried out by the very people championed by Obama and the CIA. Yet the CIA and the Pentagon are fighting and pointing fingers at each other.
It has been this insane war to take Syria for a pipeline that has destroyed the stability of Europe and sent refugees pouring into Europe. You really have to question who is making such decisions all around.

What Type of Government Should We Strive For?


socialist-worker

Some ask why I only criticize the left and not the right. As the Guardian wrote, the left is on the rise. There are 50 shades between left and right. If we are talking about the 1%, that is really small business, for that begins at $250,000 annual income. Everyone confuses the 1% with the “super-rich” who are Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, Wall Street Bankers, or, yes, even the Clintons. They skewed the average household income of the 1% to $1.2m back in 2008, according to federal tax data. The super-rich skew that average upwards, dramatically distorting whom most people are envisioning because they are looking not at income but net worth.

Measured by net worth, rather than income, the top 1% started at $6.9m in 2009, according to the Federal Reserve, down 23% from 2007. Contrary to the conspiracy theorists who claim the “rich” force crashes so they can buy stuff cheaper, they lose money during such declines. If the economy does not recover, they are unable to sell to make a profit. The richest man ever was Jonathan Ogden Armour (1863 – 1927), as in Armour Hot Dogs. He supplied the food for the troops in World War I. During the Crash of 1919, he lost the equivalent of $1 billion a day for 120 days straight and died penniless. He told the press before he died he knew he would be remembered for losing more money than anyone in history. So much for the conspiracy theories.

podesta-hillary-refuses-to-concede

Turning to reality, let’s look at power. How do the super-rich gain access to power? They donate to politicians, which is why Hillary threw a thank you bash in New York for ONLY those who donated more than $1 million. She filled the hotel and had to turn away the paupers who donated just $1 million because she had so many. When Hillary lost the election, she sent John Podesta to say go home. She didn’t come out and thank the average person or buy them dinner. So the woman who claimed to represent the common people threw a thank you bash only for the super-rich. A $1 million donation wouldn’t get you an invite.

If you want to point the finger at the rich, you have a serious problem. All these protests against the 1% are way off base. The 1% truly DO NOT possess any direct power — they buy politicians to gain INFLUENCE. This is like jailing a driver because he paid a cop a bribe to get out of a ticket, but not punishing the cop. Let’s get real here. The 1% cannot summon troops or roll down your street in tanks. That has never been their agenda. They make money primarily from investment rather than salary, and to keep that going they need a viable economy with a respectable middle-class to whom they will sell stuff. So what is really the issue? Do you really think the rich want to suppress everyone into poverty and destroy the very market from which they derive profits? I have never seen that now or historically. That makes no sense. Someone manufacturing something may want to keep wages of his worker down — true! But that does not translate into suppressing everyone within society. They need people to buy their stuff.

hillary-trump-weding

So let’s focus on who they are bribing. Trump has bluntly stated that he was a businessman. “I give to everybody. When they call, I give.” He explained, “You know what? When I need something from them, two years later, three years later, I call them, and they are there for me. . . . And that’s a broken system.” He did not say he was paying for a specific thing — you do this and I will give you that. The system does not work like that, so it’s not precisely bribery or illegal. Hillary went to Trump’s wedding because he donated to the Clinton Foundation. Trump said plainly, as reported by the Daily Beast“As a contributor, I demanded that they be there—they had no choice and that’s what’s wrong with our country. Our country is run by and for donors, special interests and lobbyists, and that is not a good formula for our country’s success. With me, there are no lobbyists and special interests. My only special interest is the United States of America.”

We have a Republic, which was based on the Roman Republic and not Greek Democracy. Therein lies the problem. For you see, there is absolutely no way we live in any democratic based system where the people really have a right to vote. We live in a Republic — nothing more — and that means we only elect “representatives” who vote and decide for us. If you want to argue that the rich are the problem, the left champions communism and just wants to hand all their assets government. But government has no imagination to create new innovations and the economic system slowly disintegrates, as what took place under socialist-communism. This is also how corporations die. Once a company typically goes public, the bean counters and lawyers take over and often push out the people with visions like Steve Jobs and Apple. They may believe they know how to run a company, but they are incapable of doing so because they lack the real understanding of innovation and imagination vital to create growth. Companies and governments die for the same reason – they become too removed from humanity.

The problem is NOT the rich, but our Republican form of government. ALL REPUBLICS, without exception, ALWAYS DEVOLVE INTO OLIGARCHIES. This is exactly what Trump explained. He donates and when he needs them, they are there.

Julius Caesar-Denarius as Pontif Max

The Roman Republic became dominated by the oligarchy. That was the Civil War with Caesar against the oligarchy (see Anatomy of a Debt Crisis). No republic form of government has ever not collapsed from internal corruption. Nobody has ever beaten this political game even once. Why was the calendar revised by Julius Caesar? The high priest who had the discretion to insert days to account for leap-year differences was constantly bribed to insert days to avoid elections. Julius Caesar became Pontifex Maximus (high priest) to revise the calendar and end the corruption of discretion. Once he fixed the calendar, it ended bribery.

The Greek Democracy was rather different. Only the head of the household votes, nobody else including sons, daughters, or the wife. The head of the household was like a Congressman and represented everyone within the household. You had direct access to your “representative” under the Greek democratic system. When Socrates was put on trial, there were 600 jurors, who were the heads of their households.

thrasymachus-quote

Thrasymachus debated Socrates as recorded by Plato. I believe he gave the best description of all forms of government. No single system will last perfectly forever. There is a cycle to everything. All forms of government will seek to exert power out of its own self-interest. That complies also with Adam Smith’s invisible hand.

genoaThe one system that proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that class warfare is the culprit behind such economic convulsions throughout history was the political system of Genoa. This was during the city state period when Genoa competed against Florence and Venice. The Venetian system had a Doge for life. Upon his death, his estate would be reviewed and any corruption he had engaged in would then be extracted from his estate before anything went to his heirs. Genoa also had a Doge (“Genoese Duke and People’s Defender”). The Doge was the ruler of the Republic of Genoa from 1339 until the state’s extinction in 1797 by the hand of Napoleon. Originally, the Doge was elected for life. The Genoese realized that this lent itself to corruption. After 1528, the Doges were elected for terms of two years only – they politically reformed.

The Doge rotated among a small group of merchant families — the rich. This actually provided the best form of government in all the systems I have reviewed. Yes, you can say it was an oligarchy. However, what was interesting was the fact that no individual family would ever pass some law to which they would be subjected to in two years that would be unfair or Draconian. Because Genoa competed against Florence and Venice, the management of the state was always directed at trade, not domestic class warfare. In fact, there were several wars between Genoa and Venice over trade. Venetian–Genoese Wars were a series of struggles for dominance in the Mediterranean Sea between 1256 and 1381.

florin

During the period post-1528, the merchant families made decisions that benefited the city-state, not individuals. By limiting terms to two-years, this defeated the sense of entitlement that we see today by career politicians. Genoa thus prospered and provided greater freedom and stability than either Florence or Venice for the whole population.

Venice really became a Marxist type system with a Doge for life. The fleet and everything was the property of the government. The main industries were not private enterprises as they were in Genoa but state owned. Florence became more of a banking and manufacturing center and built its business primarily on land. Its currency, the florin, rose to the status of the unit of account throughout Europe and others followed Florence.

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In 1344, Edward III of Britain issued his first gold coinage that was set at the standards of Florence. But the wild gyrations in the silver/gold ratio set in motion by France, unleashed civil unrest in Florence where the people stormed the palaces of the bankers and burned them to the ground after blaming the bankers for economic depression. Why? The monetary system of Florence was a two-tier system whereby gold was used only for international trade and silver was used for wages and domestic bills. Everyone was required to maintain two sets of books. The French overvalued silver relative to gold and sucked in silver much like the silver Democrats in the United States during the second half of the 19th century. A depression emerged as the price of silver rose too high causing unemployment in Florence. The same set of events unfolded as the Panic of 1893 in the United States that led to the rise of Marxism.

Right now in the USA, the share market is rallying and we have consumer confidence at new highs for the first time in 13 years because Trump was elected. People see that Trump is a businessman, and what he does will benefit the country economically. This was the same thinking process in Genoa. The key here to understand is the career politicians. The two-year term for Congress was selected by the founding fathers based on the Genoa model. Our problem, however, they failed to impose a term limit. The founding fathers  ASSUMED that since a Congressman was not paid and donated his time for a few weeks each year that it was not necessary to limit the terms. Congressmen received only $6 per day for their travel and expenses prior to 1815 when they began to pay themselves annually $1500. From then on, Congress became seriously disconnected from the people and fell into a separate political class.

The difference between the left and the right is that the left hands all power to government to suppress the right, while the right bribes a republic to maintain its influence corrupting government (i.e. Hillary). Trump is absolutely correct in identifying the problem. I doubt whether he could convince Republicans to impose term limits on themselves. Those who ask if there is any system I would recommend, I would say the Genoa system of term limits. No career politicians. Only people with real life experience from the real world, thank you.

How Americans Spent Their Money In The Last 75 Years (In 1 Simple Chart)


Tyler Durden's picture

Consumer spending makes up a large percentage of the United States economy. We all have bills to pay and mouths to feed, but where do Americans spend their money? Here is a breakdown of how Americans spent their money in the last 75 years…

In the chart above, spending is broken into 12 categories: Reading, alcohol, tobacco, education, personal care, miscellaneous, recreation & entertainment, healthcare, clothing, food, transportation and housing. Each category is further broken down into spending by year, from 1941 to 2014, and each category is given a unique color. The data were collected from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data is adjusted for inflation and measures median spending of all Americans.

Unsurprisingly, housing expenses have almost always been the largest area of spending in America for over 70 years. The only exception is 1941, when spending on food averaged $8,311, whereas spending on housing came to $7,537. However, in 1941 the government included alcohol in the food spending category, which inflates the food spending data for that year. In the other years, alcohol was given its own category. In every other year measured, spending on housing outpaced every other category.

Another interesting trend is the downward slope of spending on clothing. Americans spent the most on clothing in 1961 for an average of $4,157. In every year measured since 1961, spending on clothing fell, even when accounting for inflation.

At the same time, Americans began spending more on education, transportation and healthcare. Spending on education has increased far more than any other category, jumping from $242 in 1941 to $1,236 in 2014. Education spending increased at a particularly fast rate between 1984 and 1994 and onward. While spending on healthcare increased between 1941 and 2014, overall spending dipped between 1973 and 1984, but then began rising rapidly thereafter.

Between 1941 and 2014 Americans spent money on most of the same things, with a few changes. Housing has persisted as a large area of spending for Americans, as has the food category. However, spending on food and clothing has fallen when adjusting for inflation while spending on education and healthcare has risen quickly.

Source: HowMuch.net

Here Are The Countries Where Millennials Will Have To Work Until They Die


Tyler Durden's picture

It turns out there is a downside to spending 120% of your annual income every year from the time you graduate college until that day you turn 40 and finally realize that you’re getting old and have absolutely no liquid assets and no hopes of ever retiring.  While the above strategy seemingly makes sense to our elitist, Ivy League-educated central planners at the Fed who have waged a nearly decade-long war on saving (because how can we have economic growth if people aren’t willing to lever their income 5x and spend every dollar they make?), the roughly 19% of Americans who are over the age of 65 and are still forced to work are probably wishing they could go back and do things slightly differently.

As Bloomberg points out, the percentage of 65 years olds working in the U.S. today is higher than at any point going back to at least 1965.

Millennials

 

Unfortunately, this looks to be a record that millennials are destined to beat.  As we recently pointed out (see “Most Millennials Have Less Than $1,000 In Savings, Live Paycheck-to-Paycheck“), the majority of millennials are living paycheck to paycheck.

A recent survey of millennials by HowMuch.net found that 51.8% of those aged 18-34 have less than $1,000 held between bank accounts and cash savings.

As Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes, this echoes previous data we’ve seen – not just on millennials, but Americans in general. For example, we know that 14% of Americans have “negative” wealth. We also know that 62% of Americans don’t have emergency savings that could cover a $1,000 hospital visit or a $500 car repair.

Taking that into consideration, here’s a deeper dive into the more recent millennial data…

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

 

Meanwhile, as a testament to their strong work ethic, a study by ManpowerGroup recently found that roughly 30% of millennials envisioned taking an “extended break” from work at some point in their careers to “relax/travel/vacation” while another ~20% said they’d take a break to “pursue a life dream or hobby.”  Sure, why not?  If everything goes horribly wrong then taxpayers will be waiting to payoff your student loans for you…so no worries.

Millennials

 

And, unless you thought this was just a phenomenon limited to America’s snowflakes, turns out millennials all over the world have very little confidence in their ability to save.

Millennials

 

Well, at least we’re