Category Recession / Depression

Sep 18 2022

Tucker on Immigration


Armstrong Economics Blog/Immigration Re-Posted Sep 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The wealthy Democrats who have no problem cheering Texas to be overrun and Biden secretly dropping immigrants only in Red states were completely outraged in Martha’s Vineyard. They called out the National Guard and had the low-life immigrants flown again to Cape Cod, away from their biggest donors who live to tell everyone else we are racists, but can’t possibly allow immigrants to stay in their cozy privileged town.

Sep 18 2022

Harvard Attorney and TikTok Influencer States Soros Funded Group Offered to Pay $400 For Anti-Trump Propaganda Video About January 6th


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 17, 2022 | Sundance 

(HatTip Twitter and The Gateway Pundit) Attorney Preston Moore received his JD from Harvard Law School and currently works at a law firm Beasley Allen in Atlanta, Georgia.  Mr. Moore does videos on TikTok and is considered a well followed influencer on the social media platform.

Mr. Moore recently disclosed on a video that he was contacted by a person from the Good Information Foundation, a non-profit arm of the Good Information Inc organization.  {Direct Rumble Link} Good Information Inc was founded by billionaires Reid Hoffman and George Soros {citation}.  Mr Moore recently stated in one of his videos that he was offered $400 by the Good Information group, to spread false and defamatory information about President Trump related to the January 6 investigation.  WATCH:

According to a 2021 article by Axios, “Good Information Inc. aims to fund and scale businesses that cut through echo chambers with fact-based information. As part of its mission, it plans to invest in local news companies. The group [is] led by Tara McGowan, a former Democratic strategist who previously ran a progressive non-profit called ACRONYM.” {citation}

Put it all together and what we have is George Soros funding a progressive entity under the auspices of providing “Good Information,” that is actually political disinformation and false claims intended to do damage to political opposition and create false narratives.  Mr. Moore is outlining is intentional fraud, funded by George Soros and organized by Democrat strategist Tara McGowan.

Sep 17 2022

Operation Rolling Blackout: A California story


Habibi Bros. Published originally on Rumble on September 16, 2022 1,627 Views

The Habibi Bros discuss the Rolling Blackouts in California and the energy crisis around the world. Buckle up and grab your drink cause you are going to need it.

Sep 17 2022

Inflation Debate


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Sep 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Sep 17 2022

DOJ Files Appellate Court Motion for Partial Stay Against Judge Cannon Ruling, DOJ Does Not Want Classified Documents Reviewed


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 17, 2022 | Sundance 

As the DOJ-NSD originally threatened, they have filed an appeal of the ruling by Judge Cannon in the Trump Mar-a-Lago document case. [Pdf Here]

The DOJ is requesting the 11th Circuit Court to intervene and “stay” or block a part of the ruling surrounding letting the Special Master, Judge Raymond J Dearie, review the “classified documents” and make an independent determination as to the validity of the DOJ-NSD claims.

Having read all the motions in the case, you can get a sense of the authorship from the motion.  From my perspective this effort appears to have been written by the Lawfare group and filed by their allies in Main Justice at the DOJ National Security Division (DOJ-NSD).  The bottom line is they really don’t want any outside party making a determination as to the status of the 100 “classified documents,” and/or consider if President Trump had previously declassified them.

The crux of their position is outlined in this part of the motion, which appears to hold a logical fallacy [pdf link Here]:

The framework of the appeal appears to be built on a false premise.  The DOJ argument is contingent upon the government not having the original documents, and the claim is made *AS IF* there is only one copy.  Even if this appeal is within the framework of a valid issue for an appellate court review (not a guarantee), when you apply commonsense the motion fails on its face.

The original documents are always retained by the originating agency.  No one, not even the President, sees original intelligence documents from within any agency creating the product.  Everything, including what President Trump would have seen while in office, and including any “read and return” version of the intelligence product, is a copy that stems from the originals.  As a result, the executive branch (DOJ) has access to the originals regardless of what copies they may have retrieved from Mar-a-Lago.

Once again, the DOJ -together with the internal intelligence agency, likely the ODNI- is claiming to be the arbiter of the “classification” status of the documents at issue.  If President Trump declassified those documents before leaving office (he did), the “classification” status, another underlying premise, is automatically moot.  This reality is the central flaw in the DOJ case and appears to form the basis for Main Justice to be so adamant against anyone else reviewing the documents.

So, there are two structural flaws: (1) There is more than one copy of the documents being argued, and the DOJ has access to the originals; and (2) the classified status of those documents is unknown (hence a special master), and if they were declassified the DOJ-NSD contention around them is automatically moot.

The Special Master appointed by judge Cannon is a former FISA Judge FISA judge.  Judge Raymond J Dearie likely has seen thousands of classified documents over the years, he is not a national security risk by reviewing another set of defined classified documents.  Additionally, the documents have been in Mar-a-Lago for almost two years, the urgency claims by Main Justice look silly.

The DOJ-NSD looks desperate and nonsensical in this filing because the arguments being made by the DOJ-NSD are desperate and nonsensical.

The currently presented legal conflict is essentially over a judicial ruling that -if implemented- resolves the legal conflict.  Therefore, there is no guarantee the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals will even take the DOJ motion under review.  The legal conflict seemingly resolves if the existing judicial ruling is applied.

We keep watching….

(New York Times) – WASHINGTON — The Justice Department asked an appeals court on Friday to let the F.B.I. regain access to about 100 sensitive documents taken from former President Donald J. Trump’s residence in Florida but did not try to block the appointment of an outside arbiter to review other materials.

In a 29-page filing, the department asked the appeals court not to submit the roughly 100 files marked as classified through the vetting process of the arbiter, known as a special master — acquiescing to the review for 11,000 other documents seized from Mr. Trump’s home and resort, Mar-a-Lago. The review has frozen the government’s access to the material as it investigates Mr. Trump’s handling of the documents.

“Although the government believes the district court fundamentally erred in appointing a special master and granting injunctive relief, the government seeks to stay only the portions of the order causing the most serious and immediate harm to the government and the public,” wrote lawyers with the department’s national security division.

[…] The Justice Department initially asked Judge Cannon to stay the portion of her order that blocked it from full investigative use of the 100 or so files with classification markings, but on Thursday she refused to do so. That prompted law enforcement officials to ask the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, in Atlanta, to issue a stay instead. (read more)

Sep 17 2022

Massachusetts Governor Calls Out Military to Handle Arrival of 50 Illegal Immigrants


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 16, 2022 | sundance


The governor of uber-liberal Massachusetts has called-up the national guard to cope with the massive influx of several dozen illegal aliens sent to Martha’s Vineyard.

According to local reports 125 soldiers have been dispatched to deal with 50 arriving illegal aliens.  The unlawful migrants will be moved to a military base until the state can figure out what to do.

MASSACHUSETTS – The governor of Massachusetts plans to activate the National Guard as part of the effort to deal with migrants who were flown to Martha’s Vineyard.  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sent two planes of immigrants to the Massachusetts island on Wednesday.

Gov. Charlie Baker says the state will transport the migrants to a military base on Cape Cod.  He says a new shelter will be set up at Joint Base Cape Cod for approximately 50 migrants.

The Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency will coordinate efforts among state and local officials to provide food, shelter, and essential services. Baker also plans to activate up to 125 members of the Massachusetts National Guard as part of the relief effort. (read more)

50 illegal aliens are transported to deep blue Massachusetts and the governor calls out the national guard.

Meanwhile, 2,000,000 illegal aliens cross into Texas and Arizona and the federal response?

Sep 17 2022

On The Radar, Wave 3 of Food Price Inflation Soon to Arrive


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 16, 2022 | sundance

You know that moment just before the tsunami hits, when the water is pulled out to sea?  Yeah, that.

Media are starting to realize what a destabilizing force ‘food insecurity’ can become as the pre-existing high prices are about to go even higher.

(WASHINGTON, Via The Hill) – […] the five items that have seen the largest year-over-year price increase based on the latest report from the Labor Department, and how much the price has changed: Eggs 39.8%, Margarine: 38.3%, Butter: 24.6%, Flour/prepared flour mixes: 23.3%, Olives, pickles, relish: 19.4%

Many of the items listed in the Consumer Price Index have seen prices rise by more than 15% compared to August 2021. That includes chicken (16.6%), soups (18.5%), cereals (17.4%), and milk (17%).

[…] Worsening food inflation is a particular strain on lower-income families, more of whom have had to turn to food banks and other aid as inflation has worsened. Mary Jane Crouch, executive director of America’s Second Harvest of Coastal Georgia, which works with a network of food banks, told the Associated Press 38% more food was distributed in August compared with July.

Sales at grocery stores rose 0.5% in August, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Overall spending has slowed and shifted increasingly toward necessities like food, while spending on electronics, furniture, new clothes and other non-necessities has faded. (read more)

The energy driven inflation in seed, fertilizer, diesel fuel, solvents and industrial surfactants is about to travel from the field into the food supply chain with the fall harvest commencing.  Wave 3 food price increases are likely to be higher than the prior two waves combined.

Overlay that pricing issue with global shortages and what do you get?….

Fortunately, I am optimistic that most readers here are well prepared.

Sep 17 2022

Panicked Germany Seizes Russian Energy Company Rosneft, Uses National Trusteeship to Control Oil Refinery – The Current Economic Outlook of Europe, Full State Control of Critical Energy Production


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 16, 2022 | sundance

Welcome to the new “democratic norms” in the industrialized west as Germany seizes the private assets of Russian owned energy company Rosneft; because oil refining is critical to fuel prices and German has just realized their vulnerability.

Within this new Build Back Better system, driven by the policies of western nations, it appears things are changing quickly.  Democracy or capitalism in Germany is now quickly dispatched, as socialism -state control- becomes the priority.

Heck, I’m old enough to remember when everyone decried China’s authoritarian economic model for doing the exact same thing as Germany (a few months ago).  But, well, we must pretend not to notice these things comrades….

(Reuters) – BERLIN, Sept 16 (Reuters) – Germany took control of a major Russian-owned oil refinery on Friday, risking retaliation from Moscow as Berlin strives to shore up energy supplies and meet its European Union commitment to eliminate Russian oil imports by the end of the year.

The economy ministry said it was putting a unit of Russian oil firm Rosneft (ROSN.MM) under the trusteeship of the industry regulator and taking over the business’ Schwedt refinery, which supplies 90% of Berlin’s fuel.

“This is a far-reaching energy policy decision to protect our country,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz told a news conference to present the government’s plans to put the Schwedt refinery under the control of the Federal Network Agency regulator. (read more)

Who knew economic security was national security?

Now, let’s start talking about USA food exports, shall we?

Also, I’ll take “Things That Won’t End Well” for $1000, Alex.

Sep 16 2022

Legislation Within the Biden Green New Deal, Inflation Reduction Act, Has Created a Domestic Carbon Trading Platform


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 15, 2022 | Sundance

Deep inside the legislative language of the falsely titled “inflation reduction act”, aka The Green New Deal legislative vehicle constructed by lobbyists and passed by congress, people are now starting to realize a carbon-trading system was created.

Ultimately, a carbon trading system has always been the holy grail of the people who run the western financial system and want to create mechanisms to control wealth by using the ‘climate change’ agenda.

A carbon trading system is a very lucrative financial transfer mechanism with a potential scale to dwarf the derivative, Wall Street betting, market.  Secondarily, such a market would cement the climate change energy policy making it very difficult to reverse.  The new creation as explained by the Wall Street Journal, holds similarities to the EPA ethanol program.

BACKGROUND – The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is a government mandate, passed in 2005 and expanded in 2007, that requires growing volumes of biofuels to be blended into U.S. transportation fuels like gasoline and diesel every year.  Approximately 40 percent of corn grown in the U.S. is used for ethanol.  Raising the amount of ethanol required in gasoline will result in the need for more biofuel (corn).

The EPA enforces the biofuel standard by requiring refineries to submit purchase credits (known as Renewable Identification Numbers, or RINs) to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proving the purchases.  This enforcement requirement sets up a system where the RIN credits are bought and sold by small refineries who do not have the infrastructure to do the blending process.  They purchase second-hand RIN credits from parties that blended or imported biofuels directly. This sets up a secondary income stream, a trading market for the larger oil companies, refineries and importers.

Understanding how that system operates, back in June I said, ‘the RIN credit trading platform is similar to what we might expect to see if the ‘Carbon Trading’ scheme was ever put into place’.  Well, based on the legislation within the Green New Deal/Inflation Reduction Act, that’s exactly what is happening.

(Via Wall Street Journal) – WASHINGTON—A brand-new market for green tax credits is taking shape as bankers and advisers figure out how to funnel tax breaks from energy companies that generate them to profitable corporations eager for smaller tax bills.

The market is forming because Congress last month expanded renewable-energy tax credits and made them transferable in the law known as the Inflation Reduction Act.

[…] The tax-credit sales mark a shift in the U.S. strategy for attracting public and private capital to renewable-energy projects, and they will happen alongside existing climate-finance markets such as carbon offset purchases. The deals won’t start in earnest until 2023, but lawyers and financiers are already structuring transactions. They are discussing arrangements in which credits would be sold at discounts from face value, and they are determining how to cushion tax-credit buyers against potential risks.

“The conversations are happening. The market making is happening right now,” said Nicholas Knapp, senior managing director at CohnReznick Capital in New York.

Within a year or two, it could be easy for a corporation with no direct renewable-energy investment — a profitable retailer, pharmaceutical maker or high-tech company — to purchase tax credits. Because of the expected discounts, companies could earn an instant profit, paying $90 or $95 for a $100 coupon off their income-tax liability.

These transferable credits, however, expose a potential dilemma for Democrats. The party aimed to raise corporate tax bills and prevent large, profitable companies from paying too little. But the tax-credit transfers open a new avenue for many of those same companies to pay less.

“They can basically purchase the tax credits, advance their ESG goals and get certain economics from the credits without taking any construction or operational risk of the project,” said Hagai Zaifman, a partner at Sidley Austin LLP in New York who helps structure renewable-energy deals. (read more)

We know exactly who we have to thank for this, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.

Now watch what Senator Joe Manchin’s family starts doing.

Sep 15 2022

Debt Diplomacy – Is China the East IMF?


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Sep 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The International Monetary Fund is not the only option for countries in desperate need of funding. The Financial Times recently reported that China has been sending out tens of billions in secretive “emergency loans” to countries facing financial hardship.

China and others have been known to invest in emerging or struggling economies, but China seems to be upping its aid and has provided more funds than even the World Bank. AidData revealed that Pakistan, Argentina, and Sri Lanka alone had received $32.83 billion since 2017. Former Vice President Mike Pence accused China of using “’debt diplomacy’ to expand its influence. [China] is offering hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure loans to governments from Asia to Africa to Europe and even Latin America. Yet the terms of those loans are opaque at best, and the benefits invariably flow overwhelmingly to Beijing.” Pence claimed that China would prey upon poor nations and take ownership of key infrastructure upon default. Another example of the pot calling the kettle black, so to speak.

Pence used the example of Sri Lanka who was pushed into default, opening room for China to construct a military base in the port of Hambantota. The Atlantic published an article in 2021 to say that Pence’s claims of China ushering in their military to Sri Lanka was a lie, as if China wouldn’t jump on such an opportunity. Last month, in August 2022, China dispatched military ships to Hambantota with the intention of using the port for dual commercial and military use. Remember that Sri Lanka recently overthrew its president and has been in utter disarray — their economy completely collapsed.

“Sri Lanka needs financial assistance, and it would not want to displease China by revoking the permission,” Jehan Perera, executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, told VOA. At this time, they are not building a military base, but it is possible as Chinese companies took out a 99-year lease on the area in 2017. Sri Lanka was seeking a loan from the IMF, but they were unwilling to take on such risky debt. Business is business. Sri Lanka was desperate, and China was willing to come to their aid, but governments only act in their self-interest and would not take on risks if they did not see a way to monetize that risk.

So yes, China is willing to take on the risks that the IMF will not. Unlike the IMF, China does not need to disclose its investments. China is investing less in US and Western debt and has turned its attention to indebted nations. This may be one of the reasons that our computer predicts China will become the next financial capital of the world by 2037.25.