NBC Nibbles Carefully During Report on Fall Harvest Inflation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance

In this brief segment on fall harvest inflation, NBC notes consumer prices for food stuffs continue increasing regardless of the economic action by the Biden administration. The reason is very simple and is outlined within the segment by Jacob Goebbert, the Goebbert’s farm general manager.  WATCH:

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The current inflation is embedded in the cost of products, because it’s a supply side issue.

Financial “experts” can shout all day long about the fiscal policy (spending) being the origin of inflation (ie. demand side), they’re wrong.  Our current inflation cycle, most notably evident within massive increases in food prices, is a supply side issue created by the increased energy costs.  Full stop.  It’s a Biden policy outcome.

Social Security Administration Announces 2023 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) at 8.7 Percent, Biggest Inflation Driven Increase Since Jimmy Carter Era


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2022 | Sundance

Joe Biden’s economic and energy policies have resulted in another record matching former President Jimmy Carter.  The Social Security Administration (SSA) has announced an inflation driven increase in SAA benefits of 8.7% beginning in January 2023.  This is the largest cost of living adjustment in 40 years.

(Social Security Administration) – Approximately 70 million Americans will see a 8.7% increase in their Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments in 2023. On average, Social Security benefits will increase by more than $140 per month starting in January.

Federal benefit rates increase when the cost-of-living rises, as measured by the Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index (CPI-W). The CPI-W rises when inflation increases, leading to a higher cost-of-living. This change means prices for goods and services, on average, are higher. The cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) helps to offset these costs.

We will mail COLA notices throughout the month of December to retirement, survivors, and disability beneficiaries, SSI recipients, and representative payees. But if you want to know your new benefit amount sooner, you can securely obtain your Social Security COLA notice online using the Message Center in your personal my Social Security account. You can access this information in early December, prior to receiving the mailed notice. Benefit amounts will not be available before December. Since you will receive the COLA notice online or in the mail, you don’t need to contact us to get your new benefit amount.

If you prefer to access your COLA notice online and not receive the mailed notice, you can log in to your personal my Social Security account to opt out by changing your Preferences in the Message Center. You can update your preferences to opt out of the mailed COLA notice, and any other notices that are available online. Did you know you can receive a text or email alert when there is a new message waiting for you? That way, you always know when we have something important for you – like your COLA notice. If you don’t have an account yet, you must create one by November 15, 2022 to receive the 2023 COLA notice online. (more)

A 25% increase in the rate for those who qualify for federal food stamp assistance….

An 8.7% increase in the rate for those who qualify for Social Security benefits….

Meanwhile real wages decreased 3.8% in September and the borders are wide open for cheap labor to pour in.

Leading Edge of Field to Fork Inflation Starts to Arrive in September Producer Price Index


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 12, 2022 | Sundance 

The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released September price data [Available Here] showing another 8.5% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  However, that’s not the bad news in this data.

While the overall September PPI was higher than expected at 0.4%, the Final Demand Producer Price for food products in September was a whopping 1.2% (14.4% annualized).

The BLS notes the driver by saying, “a major factor in the September increase in prices for final demand goods was a 15.7-percent advance in the index for fresh and dry vegetables. Prices for diesel fuel, residential natural gas, chicken eggs, home heating oil, and pork also moved higher.”

That’s a 15.7% increase in price, in one month, for fresh and dry vegetables.  Annualized that’s a rate of price increase of 188.4% for vegetables.   Remember the warning about farm costs (energy, fertilizer, fuel) driving field to fork inflation at harvest?  This is the leading edge of that third wave of food price increases.

I have modified BLS Table-2 to focus specifically on food costs.  The data is on left.

You will note that ‘row crops’ are the big drivers along with grain and seed products.  This is exactly as we predicted it would be because those specific farming costs are the ones with greatest increase from energy, fuel, fertilizer, weed and insect control, and diesel costs.

All of those higher costs have been growing in the fields and will now surface at harvest.   The higher farm costs transfer from the field to the fork via the food supply chain.  This is only the leading edge of the price increase.

In October 2021 we first warned of the food price increases coming in distinct waves.  The first was Jan, Feb and March 2022.   The second wave was May through July 2022.  This third wave will be bigger than the first two and starts arriving this month, October 2022.

People laughed at me when I said in late 2022 eggs were going to reach .50¢ EACH ($6/doz).

Well, in September the price of fresh eggs jumped 16.7% in a single month.  That’s an annualized rate of price increase for eggs over 200%.

With hindsight you can clearly see the three waves of food price increases (BLS Table A):

Get ready and shop smart.

The October, November and December price increases in the grocery store are going to make the prior fresh food increases look small, as the full increased costs of farming operations starts to arrive at the supermarket.   Unfortunately, this will coincide with a wave of gasoline price increases, and the prices of natural gas are already skyrocketing.

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Poland Goes Nuclear as NATO Breaks Past Promises


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Oct 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The war in Ukraine escalated as a direct result of NATO’s interference. Russia felt backed into a corner, on the defensive, and felt it had no choice but to invade Ukraine in response to heightened tensions with NATO. Even the pope came out and said that NATO was antagonizing Russia by “barking at the Gates of Russia.”

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) originally wanted Russia to join after the Soviet Union was dissolved. Although Russia did not join, relations with NATO were strong. In 1997, NATO reported that they planned to build “lasting and inclusive peace in the Euro-Atlantic area on the principles of democracy and cooperative security” with Russia. NATO also claimed that it would not deploy nuclear measures against Russia.

"The member States of NATO reiterate that they have no intention, no plan and no reason to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of new members, nor any need to change any aspect of NATO's nuclear posture or nuclear policy - and do not foresee any future need to do so. This subsumes the fact that NATO has decided that it has no intention, no plan, and no reason to establish nuclear weapon storage sites on the territory of those members, whether through the construction of new nuclear storage facilities or the adaptation of old nuclear storage facilities. Nuclear storage sites are understood to be facilities specifically designed for the stationing of nuclear weapons, and include all types of hardened above or below ground facilities (storage bunkers or vaults) designed for storing nuclear weapons."

If peace in the euro area was of top importance, this situation would have de-escalated back in February. Now, bordering countries are increasing their nuclear capabilities. Poland has announced that they are willing to host nuclear weapons provided by the US. The head of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, Jarosław Kaczyński, “fully supports” the proposition. However, Poland is freeing itself of any responsibility. Duda said that the weapons of mass destruction “would not be a nuclear weapon under the control of Poland. Participation in nuclear sharing does not imply having your own nuclear weapon.”

France, the United Kingdom, and America are the only three NATO members with their own nuclear weapons. Yet, they store nuclear weapons in strategic places such as Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, and Belgium. These countries will be able to strengthen their national security while alleviating the full burden of being in control of nuclear weapons.

The Advisory Committee on Racial Equity


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Oct 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

ALL AMERICANS ARE HURTING FINANCIALLY. But the Treasury Department plans to prioritize people based on the color of their skin. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen announced the first “Treasury Advisory Committee on Racial Equity.”

From the Treasury’s website:

“[T]he Committee will identify, monitor, and review aspects of the domestic economy that have directly and indirectly resulted in unfavorable conditions for communities of color. The Committee plans to address topics including but not limited to: financial inclusion, access to capital, housing stability, federal supplier diversity, and economic development.”

The 25 inaugural members are completely unqualified as many have no experience in finance. Former mayor of Philadelphia Michael Nutter will act as chairman. He was unable to manage his home city, let alone work for the Treasury. Vice chair Felicia Wong said they will make “racial equity central to the Treasury Department’s mission.” Wong has strong ties to George Soros.

Wong is part of the liberal megadonor foundation, Democracy Alliance. Wong argues that every policy has “racialized effects” and believes capitalism strengthens the patriarchy and white supremacy. Wong, the CEO of the Roosevelt Institute, penned many articles noting her radicalized view of the world with no basis in economics or logic.

“True equity means equity of outcome, and not accepting the promise of ‘opportunity’ within a system that continues to systematically exclude,” Wong wrote. “It demands redistribution of resources—especially when wealth for some has been extracted from many—and a redistribution of decision-making power.”

This is an absolute disaster as we are putting socialists in charge of a department of our Treasury. The Roosevelt Institute wants to “reimagine” capitalism and views everything as a form of racial inequality. Naturally, the Democrats are appointing this useless agency as a desperate attempt for votes. Discrimination is now legal against the majority.

Nunes: Hard left groups working with Biden DOJ to suppress conservatives online


Devin Nunes Published originally on Rumble on October 4, 2022 

Truth Social CEO Devin Nunes discusses top medical groups’ efforts to censor their political opponents on social media and more on ‘Rob Schmitt Tonight,’ October 4, 2022.

The Dark Side of Ukraine


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Oct 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: You said Bucha was not a massacre by Russians but staged by the neo-Nazis. What proof do you have?

DF

ANSWER: I am glad you believe the one-sided propaganda. I know Ukraine well and its culture. I have reliable sources there. I do not reveal them for I must respect their protection. There is substantial evidence that this is typical Ukrainian propaganda. Even the US Pentagon refused to attribute this to Russia and I know NATO has videos proving this was staged. Even the Mayor posted a video on Telegram on March 31st announcing that the Russians left Bucha. He was joyful that his town had been liberated. He does not mention any corpses on the roads and terrible destruction. It was two days later when photos and videos of people lying along the road appeared and claims of hundreds of dead Ukrainians. The Neo-Nazis have been staging war crimes from the start.

There are numerous foreign soldiers who volunteered for Ukraine and then have returned shocked at the extent of the war crimes carried out by Ukrainians. You have no idea of the seething hatred of all Russian-speaking people in the Donbas or in Russia. A significant number of Ukrainians have no problem killing and torturing Russians. If you did your research, the extent of the cruelty of the Ukrainian Nazis even shocked the German Nazis. They would cut out a baby of a pregnant woman and so in a live cat. They killed countless people from Poland and the Russians as well as Jews.

They do not teach what the Ukrainian Nazis did in Ukraine because it was too horrible. One report stated:

“Some Ukrainian educators believe the Holocaust is not an appropriate topic for
teaching because in a Holocaust course a professor would need to let Ukrainian
students know that some Jews were betrayed to the Nazis by Ukrainian neighbors. In
addition, the OUN and UPA took part in the annihilation of Jews in western Ukraine,
and this knowledge can shock young Ukrainians. ” id/pg 205

At Babi Yar, during the Ukrainian Holocaust of WWII, the Ukrainian Nazis murdered 33,000 Jews in the ravine over just two days. July 11th is the day of remembrance where the Ukrainian Nazis slaughtered 100,000 Polish and to this day, Ukraine has refused to issue a formal apology. The documentation is extensive. The sheer hatred of Ukrainian Neo-Nazis is unprecedented in history. They make the German Nazis look like boy scouts.

The Polish Association of Memory of Victims of Crimes of Ukrainian Nationalists documented 135 methods of torture and murder practiced by Ukrainian Nazis. Poland officially called the Ukrainian actions genocide. The Ukrainians have been protected by the CIA for decades ONLY because they hated Russians. They continue to protect the Ukrainian Nazis only because they are waging war against Russia.

The Ukrainians were unprecedented in their war crimes during WWII and the sheer outright cruelty one would expect only exists in some B-Rated horror movies. This included:

  • Running children through with stakes
  • Cutting a person’s throat and pulling their tongue out through the hole
  • Sawing a person’s torso in half with a carpenter’s saw
  • Cutting open the belly of a woman in an advanced stage of pregnancy, removing the fetus, and replacing it with a live cat, before sewing up her abdomen.
  • Cutting open a pregnant women’s abdomen and pouring in broken glass
  • Nailing a small child to a door.

I have videos that are too horrible to show of Ukrainians torturing Russian soldiers today, nailing them to a cross, and then setting them on fire. There are numerous foreign soldiers returning who are totally disgusted by what they have witnessed in Ukraine. One reported that they simply shot all the Russian soldiers they captured. Nobody will tell the truth because as long as they hate Russia, then Russia’s enemy is the West’s friend. The Ukrainian Neo-Nazis have been the most ruthless people I have ever encountered in history. Add to that, Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe even declared by the IMF. In fact, they may be the most corrupt in the world.

Trump Sues CNN


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Oct 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Former President Trump has filed a defamation lawsuit against CNN. It is of no surprise that the network repeatedly bashed the president before, during, and after his presidency. Trump’s attorney claims the network “has sought to use its massive influence — purportedly as a ‘trusted’ news source — to defame the Plaintiff in the minds of its viewers and readers for the purpose of defeating him politically, culminating in CNN claiming credit for ‘[getting] Trump out’ in the 2020 presidential election.” Trump is seeking $475 million in damages.

Some believe this may be a publicity stunt as defamation suits are notoriously difficult to win. However, we cannot deny that CNN was running a smear campaign against Donald Trump. They reported on the Steele Dossier, Russian collusion, and other completely fake stories as if they were factual. It seemed as if CNN was running a 24/7 channel designed for the purpose of bashing Trump.

Trump’s lawyer also claimed that CNN told their viewers he was a cult leader, associating his likelihood with that of Adolf Hitler. Under this umbrella, the current White House and every other media outlet should be punished for defamation. Joe Biden himself declared MAGA Republicans the biggest threat to democracy, and violence against conservatives has ensued. Let us also not forget how CNN treated Trump during his debates.

This would be a huge step in the right direction for journalism at large if CNN lost. It is unlikely that CNN will completely lose, but they are in the wrong. Journalism has become nothing more than a tool of propaganda that cannot be trusted.