Monthly Archives: January 2020
MAGAnomics – Commerce Dept: December Retail Sales Jumped +5.8% vs Last Year…
January 16, 2020
Excellent sales report from the Dept. of Commerce reflects a 5.8 percent increase year-over year for December 2019. U.S. consumer sales drive two-thirds of GDP; the December result is another indicator the GDP growth in the fourth quarter will likely be much higher than expected.
(Via CNBC) […] The Commerce Department said on Thursday retail sales increased 0.3% last month. Data for November was revised up to show retail sales gaining 0.3% instead of rising 0.2% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would gain 0.3% in December. Compared to December last year, retail sales accelerated 5.8%.
It is weird to see how CNBC takes the good news, cites the factual impact of retail sales on GDP, and then proclaims the economy is likely faltering. What the heck?
[…] Though a report last week showed a slowdown in job growth in December and the increase in the annual wage gain retreating to below 3.0%, consumers will continue to shoulder the longest economic expansion on record, now in its 11th year, thanks to higher savings, rising house prices and a bullish stock market.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at a 3.2% annualized rate in the third quarter.
Growth in consumer spending is expected to have slowed to around or below a 2.5% rate in the fourth quarter. The economy expanded at a 2.1% pace in the July-September period.
Growth estimates for the fourth quarter are as high as a 2.5% rate, in part because of a drop in imports, which compressed the trade deficit. (link)
Retail sales account for more than two-thirds of GDP. So, November sales were revised up; December sales were exceptionally strong with +5.8% year-over-year… and yet “consumer spending is expected to have slowed below 2.5% in the fourth quarter”?
Oh well, I guess the growing wealth of the U.S. middle class means we have to “shoulder the burden” of an astoundingly good U.S. economy…. or something. Go figure.
Apparently CNBC views the American economy as too much winning….
Senate Ratifies USMCA Trade Agreement with 89-10 Vote…
January 16, 2020
In advance of the Senate beginning the impeachment trial of President Trump, the upper chamber ratified the USMCA trade agreement with an 89-10 vote. The agreement now moves to the White House where President Trump will sign it.
The final ratification is the result of two-years worth of renegotiated trade reform, and the outcome gained bipartisan support in both the House and Senate. The only republican senator who voted against the deal was Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania who is concerned the USMCA will weaken the position of Wall Street multinationals.
Nine democrat senators did not support the agreement because there wasn’t enough verbiage to support their climate change priorities, and the USMCA does not align with the Paris Climate Accord. [Vote Tally Here]
USMCA gives American producers better access to Canadian dairy markets, and creates a cornerstone for a revitalized U.S. manufacturing base. The deal has much more strict rules of origination for the auto-sector with 75% of parts and materials must be made in north America. Combined with the requirement that 40% of those industrial parts must come from plants where workers make a minimum of $16/hr, the U.S. auto-industry will gain significant benefits.
USMCA closes the loophole where imported manufactured goods were delivered into Mexico and Canada, assembled, and then shipped into the U.S. market. The agreement requires the creation of the goods in North America in order to avoid tariffs.
Other major changes include modernized rules for digital trade and enhanced copyright protections for intellectual property. The economic gains from the agreement will be felt over many years as manufacturers now have a concrete way to estimate the total cost of production in North America as compared to Asia. The initial estimates highlight GDP gains around .35% with an additional 176,000 jobs for American manufacturing workers.
Mexico has already ratified the agreement and with U.S. ratification the deal is now only waiting on ratification within Canada before it goes into full effect.
Impeachment Trial – Chief Justice John Roberts Swears-in Senate – 2:00pm Livestream…
January 16, 2020
Today begins the official Senate trial of President Donald John Trump. Chief Justice John Roberts will be swearing-in all senators to begin the impeachment trial at 2:00pm ET.
First there will be a call of the roll to ensure all senators present; then the arrival of Chief Justice Roberts; then the oath of duty administered by Senator Grassley to the ¹Chief Justice of the United States, John Roberts; then Justice Roberts will swear-in all standing Senators to their oath of duty for trial.
Following the affirmation of oath, all senators will affix their signature or mark to the Senate “oath book” documenting their declaration and affirmation. Video Added:
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¹NOTE: Chief Justice John Roberts is not the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court; in his official duties he is the Chief Justice of the United States of America.
Livestream Link – Alternate Livestream Link
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Dangerous Communists Loud-Mouths!

The Democrat Party is A Clear and Present Danger to our Nation
I watched the latest Democratic debate with a bit of weariness. I knew what they were going to say in advance and they all said it. Each of them suffered from Trump Derangement Syndrome—even Amy Klobuchar, who is due back at the Senate for the impeachment trial—and her mind is already made up. They all think the president is a danger to the country.
Democrat’s Always Project- James Carville appeared on MSNBC’s Hardball and stated:
If you replace Trumpism with the Democrat party, Carville gets it right.
The 2020 Democrats all agree on the climate change narrative. Even the so-called ‘moderate,’ Joe Biden, favors the Green New Deal. Shutting down the fossil fuel industries would cost hundreds of thousands of blue collar jobs. The same blue collar workers that Joe claims love and support him. A total restructuring of the nation’s economy doesn’t sound moderate to me, but apparently the left is the new moderate in the Democrat Party.
On the far left we have the shrill Elizabeth Warren (aka Pocahontas) who wants free health care and higher wages for all, free college, free day care and prescription medicines and oh—she wants to lower our national debt while doing it.
The crazy commie admired the old Soviet Union, Castro, and supported the Sandinistas in Nicaragua. Some of his staffers even think gulags and reeducation camps will be good for Trump supporters. A failed carpenter in his younger days, Bernie worked hard only at running his mouth. Now he leads the field going into the Iowa caucuses early next month. The lure of free stuff remains strong among the ignorant. Someone needs to remind them that nothing is free and freedom must be fought for.
I will fight against Bernie with cartoons. He is a true danger to the country.
—Ben Garrison
Capital Flows & the Next ECM
Armstrong Economics Blog/Capital Flow
Re-Posted Jan 16, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Sir,
You have advised us to avoid sovereign debt after the ECM date. I imagine that the crisis will affect nations unequally. It seems obvious that money would leave bonds in the more challenged, negative rate countries (EU and Japan). Might these flows come into US Treasuries, thereby stabilizing US rates, at least short-term? Could this be a trading opportunity (long) in our Treasuries? Thank you.
PK
ANSWER: So far, it appears that the capital flows will continue pointing to the USA going into 2022. Thereafter, we should expect a change in that trend in the same position of the ECM, which created the 1987 Crash also due to a capital flight from the dollar
Tax Proposals Rising in California Again
Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes
Re-Posted Jan 16, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
Back in 2008, a California Socialist activist was gathering signatures in an attempt to impose a state wealth tax on the ballot that would have imposed a new 35% income surtax on top of the Federal income tax. He realized that people would flee the state, so the solution was to impose an exit tax, seizing 55% of assets exceeding $20 million that anyone possessed seeking to leave the state. On top of all of that, the proposed money raised would then buy controlling shares in large corporations operating in the state.
California is going broke and raising the income tax may present a problem. First, they are seeking to overrule Proposition 13 from 1978 which prohibited raising property tax rates. They are cleverly looking to overrule it by claiming that they should be allowed to raise taxes on business properties. That will open the door to raise property taxes on any property owned by a trust or any corporate structure. But the real concern is if the people vote for that on the 2020 ballot, the wording can be vague enough to allow property taxes to rise in economic difficulties.
Secondly, there is a proposal to introduce a wealth tax, which would circumvent the entire Proposition 13. This is just being talked about behind the curtain and would not be on the ballot in 2020. It is a proposed workaround because they cannot possibly reform and cut their own pensions
The Climate Change of the 1840s
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Jan 16, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: OK, you have shown articles from the 1930s and 1970s where they talked about climate change. So are you saying that people have always been talking about climate change for decades? This is not something new I presume.
SK
ANSWER: The climate has always changed. Even during the 1840s when there was a major Sovereign Debt Crisis in the USA, there was also the issue of climate change. Here is an article from Australia back in 1846 speaking about climate change.
Here we have Climate Change being discussed in the United States also in 1846. The comment was that they saw all four seasons in a single day.
There is nothing new. You can search the newspapers and find periods during which climate change was being discussed. Here during 1846, this is when the earth was still coming out of the Little Ice Age. There too they were talking about climate change.
Climate has ALWAYS changed. I do not see how we can suddenly pretend it has never changed and since it is, OMG, we must have caused it
Is Climate Change Dispute the Same As the Fall of Rome?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Jan 15, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
Climate Change has become a fanatical religion because there is no proof and it rests entirely on belief. This is taking on the traits of the religious dispute which marked the fall of Rome – Pagans v Christianity. Like the Pagans, they immediately attack anyone who dares to disagree with them and they will not tolerate even a discussion. That was very much the same tactics employed by the Pagans.
What is clear is that the volcanic activity is increasing thanks to Solar Minimum. We now have another eruption going on in Mexico the residents call “El Popo.” This is the most active volcano in Mexico. It is not expected to be extremely dangerous. The real issue is the threat of a VEI 6-7 which could seriously alter the climate for a year or two resulting in a Volcanic Winter.
The other risk is 5 to 6 small eruptions under VEI 6 but are VEI3 or greater. The accumulative impact could be similar insofar it causes crop failures and thus a significant impact on agricultural prices. This is also concerning given the rise in earthquake activity in the Caribbean.
Recently, the Viking Rök stone, which is an ancient five-ton granite slab erected in southern Sweden sometime during the 9th century AD, has recently been translated after stumping scientists for more than 100 years. It turns out that it is referring to climate change when crops failed during the 6th century AD. We know that during the 6th century, there was a major climate catastrophic event which resulted in 50% of the population of Scandinavia starved to death. This event during the 6th century was a major volcanic event that devastated the human population globally.

We have further documentation of a major volcanic event also recorded during the reign of the Byzantine Emperor Justinian. There was a truly tumultuous period where the climate turned violent with a volcanic winter, which enabled his many conquests as less organized societies were unable to cope with the effects. There was a mysterious fog that plunged over Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia casting them into darkness. This catastrophic event lasted for 18 months. The Byzantine historian Procopius wrote: “For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during the whole year.” Temperatures in the summer plummeted creating the coldest decade in the past 2300 years. Snow fell as far east as China during the summer causing starvation as crops failed. The Irish chronicles recorded that “a failure of bread from the years 536–539” took place.
The mysterious clouds which engulfed the world contributed to the era being called the Dark Ages in Western Europe. From a Swiss glacier, ice core samples were obtained at the Climate Change Institute of The University of Maine. They determined that a cataclysmic volcanic eruption in Iceland spewed ash across the Northern Hemisphere during early in 536AD. Two other massive eruptions followed in subsequent years during 540AD and again during 547AD. What appears to have been three successive major volcanic eruptions, the Dark Ages entered a volcanic winter which plunged Europe into famine which lasted for nearly 100 years into 640AD. This was also a solar minimumwhich seems to correlate to an increase in volcanic activity.
With famine comes lower nutrition leaving the people more suspectable to disease. It appears that following the 546AD eruption, we then see the Justinian Plague (541-542AD) which was bubonic plague, involving Yersinia pestis, which struck the Roman port of Pelusium, in Egypt. This plague spread rapidly throughout the Empire wiping out one-third to one-half of the entire population of the Eastern Roman Empire.
My concern is we are headed into a Solar Minimum which may be the steepest since the Little Ice Age of 200 years or more. The climate change fanatics have risen their claims to the level of a virtual religious belief. Even the Royal Family of British has split with Harry and his wife claiming they are “progressive” and have also bought into the whole human-caused climate change.
These climate activists will not listen to reason. They immediately seek to attack and demonize anyone who dares to oppose them. They have weaseled into governments and DAVOS using a 16-year-old girl they dare to present as a climate authority.
The extreme antics of the Climate Activists seem to be adopting the hostile role of the Pagans during the fall of the Roman Empire. They too were claiming that society was doomed because the Christians would not worship their gods and the gods were angry. The climate was turning colder which was indeed resulting in mass migrations south as the Romans called them the barbarians.
We seem to be experiencing the same sort of division with intense hatred being hurled at anyone who seeks to argue against the Climate Activists. Religion is declining and progressivism (Marxism) is rising and the core of the Climate Activists is to destroy modern society blaming the Industrial Revolution for the entire warming period post-1850 which was the normal cyclical rise from the Little Ice Age.

This is a very similar clash that divided the Roman Empire and set its final decline in motion. Here we are once again headed into Solar Minimum with the risk of cold weather resulting in serious mass starvation.
The Maya originally also declined into the 6th century AD, and then as the climate began to improve after the Volcanic Winter of the 6th century, this is when the Maya constructed Chichen Itza which was a major ceremonial focal point in the Northern Maya Lowlands from the Late Classic (c. 600–900AD). This became the only place where human sacrifices seemed to have taken place and they were most likely to appease the gods after the devastation of the 6th century AD. One life was offered to save thousands.
It Begins – Senate Leader Mitch McConnell Receives Articles of Impeachment and Structures Schedule…
January 15, 2020
Sickening. Earlier today Speaker Nancy Pelosi held a media event signing ceremonycomplete with commemorative pens for dozens of her Democrat colleagues, and initiated the parade ceremony for the march across the Capitol with the articles. Upon arrival at the upper chamber of congress, Senate Leader Mitch McConnell accepted delivery and began the process of organizing the procedure through a series of rules by unanimous consent.
[McConnell] “A few minutes ago, the Senate was notified the House of Representatives is finally ready to proceed with their articles of impeachment. So, by unanimous consent, we’ve just laid some of the groundwork that will structure the next several days.”
- We have officially invited the House managers to come to the Senate tomorrow at noon to exhibit their articles of impeachment.
- Then, later tomorrow afternoon at 2:00pm, the Chief Justice of the United States will arrive here in the Senate. He will be sworn in by the President Pro Tem, Senator Grassley.
- Then the Chief Justice will swear in all of us senators. We will pledge to rise above petty factionalism and do justice for our institutions, for our states, and for the nation.
- And then we will formally notify the White House of our pending trial and summon the President to answer the articles and send his counsel.
‘So the trial will commence in earnest on Tuesday.
‘But first, Mr. President, some important good news for the country: ‘We anticipate the Senate will finish the USMCA tomorrow and send this landmark trade deal to President Trump for his signature. A major victory for this administration, but more importantly, for American families.
‘Let me close with this. This is a difficult time for our country. But this is precisely the kind of time for which the framers created the Senate. I am confident this body can rise above short-termism and factional fever and serve the long-term best interests of our nation.
‘We can do this. And we must.’
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