US Manufacturing Contracts for Sixth Consecutive Month


Posted originally on Sep 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

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America cannot find its footing in manufacturing. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7 in August 2025, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction. Although the figure has improved from July’s reading of 48, there is ongoing confirmation that capital is bleeding out of US manufacturing.

New orders did rise to 51.4, a stark uptick from July’s reading of 47.1, but production fell to 47.8 in August from 51.4 in July. “In August, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly slower rate, with new orders growth the biggest factor in the 0.7-percentage point gain of the Manufacturing PMI,” said Susan Spence, chair of the ISM’s survey committee. “However, since production contracted at a rate nearly equal to the expansion in new orders, the Manufacturing PMI increase was nominal.”

The issue is far deeper than a capital fleeing uncertainty from tariffs, as this issue has been ongoing. In fact, one of Trump’s motives for implementing tariffs was to boost domestic manufacturing. Trump openly stated that he wanted companies to move manufacturing to the US to avoid tariffs. This was intended to promote domestic trade as companies will seek to avoid levies. We did see a temporary uptick in manufacturing demand when these tariffs were announced but it was not enough to sustain the sector. Although companies began to invest in the US, overall trade remained volatile. There were supply chain issues by May, and come September, the US is still at a standstill regarding tariffs. Nations have even halted postal shipments to the US entirely as they cannot process the ongoing tariff changes.

Again, US manufacturing was in a dire situation before Trump entered the office. The Inflation Reduction Act promised to fund the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which was intended to expand American manufacturing, but regulation and an emphasis on clean energy initiatives drove business away. The Biden Administration had promised to add 1 million manufacturing jobs to the US but failed miserably.

This has nothing to do with America being uncompetitive. The American worker is among the most productive in the world. But if you add 30–40% in taxes and compliance costs on top of wages, while competitors in Asia operate under far leaner systems, capital naturally migrates to where it will be treated best.

Manufacturing in the United States has been in decline for decades due to systemic policy failures. The politicians will blame China and tariffs for the downturn. The contraction we see today is merely the continuation of a decades-long trend set in motion by shortsighted policies.

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro and Federal Officials Announce Massive Bust of Precursor Chemicals Bound for Mexico


Posted originally on CTH on September 3, 2025 | Sundance

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro joined multiple members of local, state and federal law enforcement agencies to announce what they’re calling “the largest law enforcement bust of precursor chemicals bound for a foreign terrorist organization.”

The press conference is below, and this is the underpinning of the IEEPA. WATCH:

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Mr. President, Tear Down These Walls


**BUMPED** How is it that an insignificant corner of the internet could predict the removal of the U.S. National Security Advisor, specifically as the first administration official to be removed, more than two months before Donald Trump was sworn in as President on January 20, 2025?

To understand the complexity of the intelligence information flow, consider:

The silo system is made up, in part, of: The National Security Council (10+ desks, 15 staff/analysts per), the National Security Advisor to the Office of the President, the Dept of Justice National Security Division [DOJ-NSD (foreign review section, counterintelligence export control section, cyber section, counterterrorism section)], Central Intelligence Agency [(CIA), National Intelligence Council, Directorate of Analysis], Federal Bureau of Investigation [FBI (Counterintelligence, Counterterrorism, WMD Directorate, Directorate of Intelligence, Cyber)], the Office of the Director of National Intelligence [ODNI (Requirements, Analysis, Collection, National Counterterrorism Center, Mission Managers)], the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI), the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI), the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the Dept of Defense [DoD, (Nuclear, Chemical, Biological, Industrial, International)], the National Security Agency [NSA (Operations, Technology, Cyber], and many more.

Each agency/office a silo, with distinct sub-silos, each with equity stakes in the information they gather, review and analyze; ultimately attributing classification level and intersecting analysis with each other agency as mission aligned.

Sound ridiculous?  It probably is, yet we’ve merely scratched the surface of the networks and information flows that swirl around the Office of the President.

How does President Trump frame his world view?  Who organizes the information that is prioritized to reach his desk?

It is very easy to say, “President Trump has to know about (fill_in_blank),” without contemplating the process by which President Trump would know about (fill_in_blank).  The recent remarks by President Trump, surrounding COVID-19 vaccine efficacy, should put a spotlight on this consequential dynamic.

♦ PIAB – We were all very pleased to see President Trump announce the newly formed President’s Intelligence Advisory Board (PIAB), because for more than a decade we have watched how intelligence products were manipulated, shaped and constructed to create the illusion of something that was entirely false.

However, we should note the same process of selecting the PIAB membership led to the previous issue of selecting former Congressman Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor.  In that example, CTH predicted what would happen several months before it actually happened.

There are issues of great DC interest that overlay all names and positions within the Trump administration.  The subsequent behavior of NSA appointee Mike Waltz was a great reminder that sometimes those interests or judgements are not in alignment with the common MAGA priority.

Big international policy issues, like support for Israel, Ukraine support, NATO support and opinions on the threat Russia or China represents, are all part of the prism through which White House personnel references are traditionally made.

When intended policy runs counter to personal ideology, conflicts arise.

The policies of Wall St -vs- Main St, banking regulations, reciprocal tariffs, trade fairness, cryptocurrency and foundational economic nationalism can be challenging to align with the perspectives of the professional political class, in DC.

The aspect of there being “trillions at stake” applies here, and being an outsider in DC generally comes down to financial interests and financial relationships.  Then you run into the issues of the surveillance state, FISA (702) support, data collection and artificial intelligence.

In short, the interests of maintaining the status quo inside Washington DC, which may be interests carried by those in the orbit of President Trump, can stop information from reaching President Trump.

♦ Gordian Knot – As a consequence, cutting through the enmeshed interests with obvious, albeit painful truth, means delivering critical information in such a manner that, well, it cannot be refuted.

We hope this is also the goal of those who have recently been outlining the background of Russiagate. However, given a history of inaction, and the stakes at hand, nothing should be taken for granted.

What’s needed is a full spectrum outing of everything that took place throughout the targeting of President Trump.

Perhaps a lengthy press conference directly in Washington DC, where the adversarial media are confronted with overwhelming evidence of the activity around the targeting (2012-2024), in such a manner that their predictable defensive questioning can be knocked down with specific citation.

A soup-to-nuts threshing of the previous activity – a must watch TV and viral moment- cutting through the entangled issues and breaking them down to their simple core.  However, that approach first starts with the ability of a person to outline the issues with exceptional citation.

The citations, what people call the “receipts”, are key. Because the citations underpin the activity, and the citations are vast, spread throughout the entire silo system and in large measure intentionally disconnected.

The story of the Trump targeting and surveillance effort is abundantly clear when the citations are gathered in timeline sequence and order.  However, those citations must be woven into the story of how the targeting of Trump took place. It takes telling the story, the remarkably truthful story, for the impact to structurally change perception.

♦ OPTIMISM – We are aware that people in/around term-2 govt have come around to understand the scope of our research on these issues.  The 2024 Mike Waltz prediction served a serendipitous purpose; also, you guys know our rehashes are not hymnals to the CTH choir.  We are narrowing focus.

Visible confirmation comes in the appearance of change.  Specific offices have structurally changed the way they engage with the Intelligence Community.  Even while the operatives buried deep in the system are still trying to create false outcomes, the Nat Sec Advisor, CIA Director and ODNI are working with greater synergy.

Literally hundreds of embeds -across multiple silos- have been removed from the aggregate apparatus.  The National Security Council has been taken apart, staff removed, desks shuttered.  The National Intelligence Council was removed from the CIA with personnel fired.  The Directorate of Analysis is now openly confronted.  The ICIG is once again a watchdog. This creates optimism that substantive change is possible. [It’s also long overdue] However, much more work lies ahead.

As we began this outline, we shared a small sample of the myriads of silos to emphasize how each agency may not even realize the value within the information they hold.  Each extracted puzzle piece fills in a clearer picture.

Spygate targeting, which evolved into Russiagate targeting, which evolved into Mueller targeting, which evolved into Jack Smith targeting, is one continuum purposefully scattered into separate isolation silos to hide the core issue, the U.S. government was/is using NSA captured electronic metadata to conduct domestic political spy operations.

September 5, 2025 | Sundance

Secretary Rubio: “We are now going to wage combat” Against Venezuelan Drug Cartels


Posted originally on CTH on September 3, 2025 | Sundance

Speaking to reporters in Miami, Secretary of State Marco Rubio affirmed the shift in drug enforcement that will now use the full weight of the United States military to “wage combat” level measures against Venezuelan drug networks.  WATCH:

Moments before the presser, the Pentagon had released video of a speedboat carrying drugs that was engaged and destroyed by the U.S military.  11 persons on the boat were killed and the cargo destroyed.  [Video Below]

President Trump has unleased the power of the U.S. military against criminal drug cartels and narcotrafficking gangs.  The current focus is in/around the waterways surrounding Venezuela, but the threat is now massive throughout the region.

PRESIDENT TRUMP –  “Earlier this morning, on my Orders, U.S. Military Forces conducted a kinetic strike against positively identified Tren de Aragua Narcoterrorists in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility. TDA is a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, operating under the control of Nicolas Maduro, responsible for mass murder, drug trafficking, sex trafficking, and acts of violence and terror across the United States and Western Hemisphere.

The strike occurred while the terrorists were at sea in International waters transporting illegal narcotics, heading to the United States. The strike resulted in 11 terrorists killed in action. No U.S. Forces were harmed in this strike. Please let this serve as notice to anybody even thinking about bringing drugs into the United States of America. BEWARE! Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!!!!!!!!!”  [Truth Social Link]

Secretary Marco Rubio Holds Press Conference in Mexico City


Posted originally on CTH on September 4, 2025 | Sundance 

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed the media in Mexico City amidst his tour of Latin America, underscoring U.S. efforts to confront drug cartels, curb migration, and boost regional security cooperation.  Mexico is being squeezed economically with increased internal pressure by cartels about sovereignty, Mexico seeks balanced collaboration. WATCH:

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House Speaker Mike Johnson and Chairman James Comer Hold a Press Availability After Meeting With Epstein Victims


Posted originally on CTH on September 3, 2025 | Sundance

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Rep. James Comer (R-KY) spoke to reporters and took questions after a House Oversight Committee meeting with victims of Jeffrey Epstein. Additionally, the House Oversight Committee released 34,000 documents connected to Jeffrey Epstein.  WATCH:

WASHINGTON—Today, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform released 33,295 pages of Epstein-related records that were provided by the U.S. Department of Justice. On August 5, Chairman Comer issued a subpoena for records related to Mr. Jeffrey Epstein, and the Department of Justice has indicated it will continue producing those records while ensuring the redaction of victim identities and any child sexual abuse material.

Epstein-related documents can be found here.

Backup access can be found here.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen Blames Russia for EU Immigration Crisis


Posted originally on CTH on August 29, 2025 | Sundance

During a meeting in Latvia to organize EU defenses, European Commision President Ursula von der Leyen outlines how Russian President Vladimir Putin is to blame for the EU importing millions of Mideast and African immigrants.

It’s not the fault of the European nations their states are riddled with criminal conduct at the hands of migrants. No, it is Vladimir Putin who is to blame.  This is the mindset of the European leadership.  WATCH:

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Deep State in US and EU Gnash Teeth and Criticize Trump Administration for Not Attacking Russia


Posted originally on CTH on August 29, 2025 | Sundance

Like pathetic children who demand that Daddy Trump step into the chaos and punch Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin in the face, the EU leaders admit to media they coordinated and collaborated on using social media to decry the latest missile attacks from Russia.

According to their staff, who reported to Politico, the intent of the EU social media firestorm was to influence President Donald Trump.  Think about how pathetic that is in substance.

The Presidents, Prime Ministers and Commissars of the EU collective couldn’t pick up the phone to call President Trump and discuss their position.  No, instead their best approach, as organized by the group, was to take to social media and protest.

These are not serious people.

A second European official confirmed that the morning messages were an effort to influence Trump’s thinking, although the person was not optimistic that the attacks would lead Trump to ratchet up the economic pressure on Putin.”  {link} The discussion of conflict that began as ‘World War Reddit’, has now devolved even further and becomes a messaging war on teh Twitter.  Yeah, these are not serious people.

I am reminded of how the White House initially responded to the beginning of the conflict in February 2022:

I said at the time, “Singh’s remarks outlining the view of the ‘West’ toward defeating Russia are eloquent yet batshit crazy in their ideological context. Daleep Singh sounds like the senior head of a Google Human Resources operation telling the department heads how they need to convey their feelings in order to hire the talent for continued growth in the industry.”

Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh boils down geopolitical power to a cultural issue of social likeability. Pro Tip: Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t care if EU leaders like him.

The leadership of the Western NATO alliance and the European Union are reduced to shouting on Twitter, ‘Help us Trump, help us’.  Meanwhile, these same leaders wonder why Vladimir Putin doesn’t take them seriously. You just cannot make this stuff up.

Germany can mechanize their military and start rolling tanks to the front lines of Ukraine tonight.  France can muster 100,000 troops and enter the battlefield by morning.  The U.K. can put their fighter jets on the runways in Ukraine by nightfall, and the EU can force the collective nations to send troops into the meatgrinder by the end of the weekend.

Will they?  Of course not.   Not without President Trump and the full weight of the U.S. military as the skirt they can hide behind.  The ‘coalition of the willing’ has limits, and apparently those limits end with strongly clutched Twitter messages.

Meanwhile, back in the USA, the professional administrative state is hitting out at President Trump’s Envoy Steve Witkoff for failing to end the conflict or seemingly permit the U.S. Senate to take control of the nuclear weapons.

Again, Politico: […] “The thing is, Witkoff isn’t consistently engaged. He will pop in for a visit to Vladimir Putin, say a bunch of stuff, not tell anyone what really happened and then just fuck off to his life again. Meanwhile, the Russians are talking to you about how ‘Witkoff says…’ and you don’t know whether they’re right or not, but you can’t get a readout from the Russians,” the U.S. official said.” {SOURCE}

Thankfully, Vice President J.D. Vance and the entire Trump administration hit back:

This story from Politico is journalistic malpractice. But it’s more than that: it’s a foreign influence operation meant to hurt the administration and one of our most effective members.

Notice how all of the people attacking Steve are on background? That means it’s two or three deep staters who are angry that Witkoff has succeeded where they’ve failed.

You know what this “reporter” left out to make room for anonymous quotes?

The full quote from the sitting vice president, on the record.

A quote from the secretary of the state, on the record.

A quote from Jared Kushner, on the record.

The full quote from the UK’s Jonathan Powell, one of the most respected national security people in the Western World, who defended Steve vigorously from these malicious smears.

The person who wrote this garbage is [@felschwartz]. Aside from the failure to include on the record information directly contradicting her reporting, I wonder if she ever asked herself why these anonymous sources came to her at this moment with this particular story. They have an agenda to blow up the president’s efforts to make peace, and they saw her as a useful vessel to launder garbage into the conversation, truth be damned.

There are two possible explanations: Felicia is just not very smart and allowed herself to be used by deep state con men. Or she’s in on it and used her position to willingly participate in a literal foreign influence operation. Either way, it’s disgraceful.

To set the record straight: Steve Witkoff is an invaluable member of our team. He did not mislead anyone on what the Russians told him and what the Russians conceded. (Trust me, I’ve seen the intel.) The fruits of his negotiations are that we have narrowed the list of open issues in the Russia-Ukraine war to a set of clearly defined issues–specifically, security guarantees and territorial concessions.

Maybe we make peace, and maybe we don’t. If we do, it will be because Steve Witkoff and the President of the United States worked their tails off, in the face of outright lies from the mainstream press. {SOURCE}

You know what is driving the Administrative State and the EU collective bananas?

[SOURCE]

Misleading Q2 US GDP Figure


Posted originally on Aug 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

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The U.S. economy did post a headline-grabbing 3.3% gain in Q2, but that figure is misleading. It’s driven largely by the collapse in imports—not by true domestic growth. Remember the GDP formula: GDP = C + I + G + (X – M). A sharp drop in imports boosts that (X – M) term artificially, making GDP look better even while the underlying fundamentals stagnate.

Consumer spending rose only modestly at 1.6% and private domestic final sales rose 1.9%. They relay a lower estimate and then state the true figure, acting as if the figure should be celebrated. Meanwhile, business spending remained weak.

We’ve also noted that household debt surged by $185 billion in Q2, with rising mortgage, credit-card, auto-loan, and student-loan balances. Delinquency rates are up, and real incomes are under pressure. Consumers are treading in deep waters.

Imports tanked by 29.8% after nations began to panic buy last quarter ahead of tariffs. Exports declined 1.3%. The import volatility has inflated figures and does not mark sustainable economic growth. Investment into the US has also improved as capital has nowhere else to go, but again, the expansion is not enough for the long-term.

The economy contracted 0.5% in Q1, and the Commerce Department is reporting that the economy rose 3.3% in Q2, with growth averaging 2.1% or a bit above 1% per quarter. Stagflation is not simply high inflation with low growth. It is the direct result of government mismanagement. When politicians and central banks try to manipulate the economy, they destroy confidence. That is the fuel behind stagflation.

Security Guarantees for Ukraine – EU Prepares to Enter War


Posted originally on Aug 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Zelensky with EU leaders

Peace talks are a moot point between Russia and Ukraine. Security guarantees for Ukraine have been at the forefront of Ukraine’s discussions but they are actually a premise to determine how other nations will officially enter the war. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni proposed an ambitious security guarantee that would require allies to decide within 24 hours whether to deploy troops to Ukraine if Russia attacks.

“Allies” could use any excuse to send their men and women to the battlefield under this premise. Zelensky has been urging for Article 5 protection—an attack on one is an attack on all—despite Ukraine not being a member of NATO. Entering the conflict under Article 5 is voluntary, but the situation can only remain voluntary for so long when other members become further embedded in the conflict. Ten European nations have already offered to send troops to Ukraine. Zelensky insists that long-term restrictions on its military should be eliminated.

Ukraine would ideally like to join NATO, but NATO has never been willing to accept Ukraine as a member of its alliance. Instead, paying NATO members will offer Ukraine the very same protections they enjoy as the globalist powers abandon domestic sovereignty for a needless war. Europe knows it is crumbling under its own foot due the surmounting sovereign debt crisis, and rather than accept fault, the plan is to conquer Russia to bypass defaults. The computer indicates that this plan will fail.

I am preparing a report on the sovereign debt crisis for the 2025 World Economic Conference that will discuss this plan in further depth.

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The European Union cannot admit its socialist experiment has failed, so it needs a distraction. Historically, when governments are bankrupt, they turn to war, and this is not a new strategy but human nature coming into play. The neocons in Washington are eager to play along and drag the US into Europe’s proxy war. The cost of living is skyrocketing among all developed nations, and rather than acknowledging failed policies or changing course, the West has decided to create a common enemy–Russia. Russia is the reason that the people are voting against their failed policies, according to the West and mainstream media. Russia is the reason that energy prices are rising, as they certainly cannot blame climate policies that have murdered the energy sector. Taxes are rising because of Russia. The forces that be would like the people to redirect their anger to the common enemy rather than revolting as they see the rising civil unrest and growing private debt burden.

Meloni said “there are clearly no easy solutions when it comes to stopping a war and building peace,” but she now realizes that peace is not an option. She showed potential at the beginning of her term, but has fallen under the thumb of Brussels. All of Europe, aside from Hungary’s Orban, has bowed to Brussels. The war will not be enough for the continent to hold on to its decaying union.