Civil Unrest in Spain for the 5th Night


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Feb 21, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Spain has imprisoned a rapper for insulting the government in his Tweets. Barcelona ​and many ​other Catalan cities, along with Madrid have been erupting in civil unrest as people protest to demand the freedom of rapper Pablo Hasel, who the government sentenced to prison for nine months because of his tweets which were insults against the Crown and the police. These protests, which began in Barcelona against the Mossos d’Esquadra, the Catalan police force, which in turn responded with smoke bombs. These protests are reflecting the frustration over the lockdowns which have erupted into riots, fires, and even looting.

The build-up of frustration has led to civil unrest erupting on just about any excuse. This is more than just a protest over the wrongful imprisonment of  Pablo Hasel. This is simply a reflection of the totalitarian state that governments are trying to impose using this virus as the justification to hide their real agenda – the Great Reset.

XRP & the Rise of Barter


Armstrong Economics Blog/Foreign Exchange Re-Posted Feb 19, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Martin,

I wonder if you can comment on the potential of the swift system being replaced by Ripple lab’s XRP as a bridging currency between currency pairs making use of their patented “On-Demand Liquidity” system. If this is the case then it would appear the USD is set to be replaced as the world reserve currency commodities being priced in local currency.

The IMF has stated they want to renegotiate the Bretton Woods agreement. Mark Carney the Governor of the Bank of England said at the 2019 Jackson hole meeting that the USD is too dominant and proposed it be replaced by a green cryptocurrency such as XRP.

The world economic Forum is touting Ripple lab’s platform as the future.

Without going full conspiracy theory in this. It would seem plausible that something like this is in the offing

The SEC lawsuit against Ripple seems a little sinister given that the DOJ  already found XRP to be a digital asset, not a security, and has the potential to push Ripple offshore to a more friendly jurisdiction. Which the globalists would love.

I’m rambling, I’m sorry, however, could you speak on the swift system and potential replacement and any other topic I’ve touched on if you have the time or inclination even to dismiss.

Thanks, Martin you were born to live through this moment.

Kind regards

TL

ANSWER: XRP is a digital asset built for payments. It is the native digital asset on the XRP Ledger—an open-source, permissionless, and decentralized blockchain technology that can settle transactions in 3-5 seconds. The reason these people are pushing this is not about the dollar, it is to end paper money and thereby they see this as the solution to 6 years of quantitative easing which failed to stimulate the economy because the velocity of money declined as people hoarded their cash instead of spending it. This would also terminate all cryptocurrency.

Either Mark Carney and the IMF are completely ignorant as to why the dollar is the reserve currency that nobody else can displace, or they are deliberately hiding the truth which is a major default on world sovereign debt. The dollar is the reserve currency for three primary reasons.

  1. The US dollar has no restrictions and anyone can issue debt in dollars without controls
  2. The US dollar has never been canceled
  3. The US economy is the largest in the world but with the core consumer market to which the world sells

Europe routinely cancels its currency which introduces risk which prevents it from being used internationally. While they have not canceled the €500 note, few people will accept them for fear of being canceled. Even India canceled its high-end notes which I have from the last time I went to India to meet with our institutional clients there. Only the dollar remains legal tender since 1861 and Trudeau had a law passed in Canada withdrawing the legal tender status of some notes by January 1sy, 2021, which now allows him to cancel all paper money at his pleasure. Canadian dollars now have a risk of cancellation as of January 1st, 2021.

Note that prior to World War I, most bonds issued by foreign countries using in another’s country currency involved the British pound which was the reserve currency prior to World War I. After that, it was the dollar that rose to the status of a reserve currency when Europe decided to blow each other up.

While Germany may be the biggest economy within Europe, the mercantile economic policy and high taxes in fear of hyperinflation since World War II has rendered the Germans near the bottom of the wealth list among the EU. The significance of this is very important. It means that Germany did not develop the same robust economy based upon consumer demand. They relied upon selling things to other countries which was why Kohl was pushing for a single currency to enable Germany to sell even more to the rest of Europe by reducing currency risk.

Pricing commodities in this XRP will by no means eliminate the dollar as the reserve currency. It would require the United States to terminate the dollar and accept XRP. Otherwise, all that will happen is introduce greater volatility forcing American companies into hedging FX risk between the dollar and XRP.

For years, all we ever heard was if they price oil in Euro that will kill the dollar. These people just totally fail to grasp the complexity behind what even makes a currency. Then we have heard how the dollar will crumble to ash because of debt. Yet total sovereign world debt is nearing $200 trillion and the USA is just under 15% of that. These people have no idea of what they are talking about. Other nations are in far worse shape not because of Debt to GDP, but because they lack the underlying consumer-based economy. This is WHY China is diligently following the US model and not that of Germany.  They have turned inward and are moving to generate the world’s largest consumer-based economy which is WHY they will surpass the United States which is being taken over by the same European Marxist agenda which has relegated Europe to the third world status. The Top 10 economies in the world only include three EU countries in nominal terms:

1. United States
2. China
3. Japan
4. Germany
5. India
6. United Kingdom
7. France
8. Italy
9. Brazil
10. Canada

If we measure these economies accounting for purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates, which relate the exchange rate between currencies to consumer price levels, the picture changes. China is the world’s largest economy since 2017 in PPP terms according to estimates by the World Bank which uses international dollars to make better comparisons among countries. This introduces FX risk. Therefore, in PPP terms, the U.S. is second with about a 15.8% share of world GDP. The European Union was in third place, contributing $19.9 trillion, or 15.3%, of world GDP.

Therefore, the push behind XRP requires 5G communication speed to be able to instantly clear transactions. Without that, you cannot replace paper currency. Consequently, the only way to move to electronic money in order to eliminate non-taxable hidden cash and the underground economy is to move toward the digital world. In the United States, in 2020, it is estimated that the underground economy is about 11 or 12% of U.S. GDP, or roughly $2.5 trillion total. Politicians look at that and see dollar sign visions in their heads.

Politicians blame their fiscal mismanagement and their political failures NEVER on themselves, but always on we the Great Unwashed who are never trustworthy. Even an IRS, SEC, CFTC, or any agent who audits the private sector begins with the assumption everyone is a criminal. They have to find something or else they did not do their job.

As a result, politicians are obsessed with eliminating paper money to end the hoarding of cash and the underground economy. You hire the teenage girl next door to babysit and then pay her cash. OMG, the government laments, where is our taxes? Or you found a $1 bill in the sparkling lot. They can’t sleep at night worrying about how much they are losing in tax revenue.

Hence, XRP is primarily for that purpose. To eliminate the underground economy. This has been going on for thousands of years. Here is an ancient Roman prostitute token. Roman Empire Tiberius (14-27AD) declared that you could not pay a prostitute with a coin that bore the image of the emperor. So they trade coined these tokens. You would buy the token from a money changer and use that to pay the prostitute. She, in turn, would take them back to the money changer and he would swap them out for money.

No matter how politicians try to eliminate the underground economy, all they will do is give rise to the reestablishment of barter. In prison, cigarettes were money. Then packs of mackerel. Who knows what will emerge? USB sticks?

Canada 2021 Report Now Available in the Store


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada Re-Posted Feb 18, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The 2021 Canadian Report is now available. We have gone into the clever change in the law that Trudeau pulled off to allow him to cancel the currency at his discretion as of January 1, 2021. He did withdraw the legal tender status of various notes that are still out there. You can take them to the bank and deposit them in your account, but stripping them of legal tender status means nobody else is now required to honor that currency.

We have covered the political chaos, the debt, the separatist movements, energy, the agricultural crisis, the share market, the Canadian dollar, and gold in terms of Canadian dollars rather than in US dollars with arrays and reversals.

The Strange Events of Chance Behind Economic Revolutions


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Feb 17, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

This is an engraving with a modern watercolor of machines making cotton thread by performing mechanical versions of carding drawing and roving in a mill in Lancashire England about 1835. What the Great Reset is all about is trying to ACCELERATE this Fourth Industrial Revolution by regulation to save the planet, as they see it. They actually are using the lockdowns to destroy employment and industries that they see as unfit which is why you hear Boris Johnson saying he will provide free education to retain people for a new type of job – John Kerry telling coal miners to learn how to work in a factory to make solar panels. They look down upon the people as just economic slaves. If you do not enjoy what you do, you will never do a good job. They simply do not understand human nature.

When the First Industrial Revolution closed down many of the small craft shops, lace-makers, for example, emigrated to the North of France. When they did, they took their English little bulldogs with them. The popularity of these little dogs spread from Normandy to Paris and soon the English lace-makers/breeders had a lively trade, exporting small bulldogs throughout France where they began to be called Bouledogues Français. They were favorites of ordinary Parisians such as butchers, cafe owners, and dealers in the rag trade. They became notorious as the favorites of the Parisian streetwalkers, les belles de nuit. The famous artist Toulouse Lautrec depicted in several works Bouboule, a Frenchie owned by Madame Palmyre, the proprietress of a favorite restaurant “La Souris.”

By 1896, the French Bulldogs made it back to England and they became the instant most popular breed by 1896 and they made the cover of the 1897 Westminster Kennel Club. By 1908, this photo of Anna Maria Sacher (1859-1930) who was the Austrian hotel heir, prominently displaying her two French bulldogs shows they were the darlings of high society.

The former English lace-makers who were put out of a job by the First Industrial Revolution stumbled upon an entirely new field of employment. That was not something that government could regulate or dream of no less decree. You cannot direct how the Fourth Industrial Revolution will unfold. It is completely absurd of Klaus Schwab to think he can accelerate it and direct it in such a manner to immediately destroy jobs with no idea how to provide new employment. Not everyone can make solar panels and wind turbines.

How I ended up as an adviser was all by chance. My father wanted me to go to law school, by I did not want to be a lawyer. He pushed me into computers which I did to please him. When I returned to trading, which I did love, because I turned down shipping off to Greenland, Guam, or Vietnam at RCA,  I then realized I could write a program to assist me back in the 70s before there was even the first IBM XT. I was a market-maker in precious metals and then was going to retire after 1980 when the government wanted to declare me a bank because gold was still money under the Constitution. I had provided the advice to dealers provided they gave me the business.

When I was going to retire, that’s when my clients offered to pay for the advice. So I gave it a shot and the next thing you know, I became the highest-paid adviser in the world at $2,000 an hour they set the fee – not me. The journalist Joseph Perkins, called me back to say after talking to my clients around the world, he said that they commented that if I charged $10,000 they would pay it. Because I was involved in foreign exchange and there were few people around back then, I became international because of the FX markets. The Wall Street Journal wrote about it back in 1983 but focused only on what I made rather than what I did.

Consequently, there is no possible way the government can direct the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Klaus Schwab just fails to understand that things develop without some grand master plan. He talks about AI but does not have the slightest idea of real AI or how it even functions.

Amsterdam Has Retaken Financial Capital of Europe? Was this Cyclically on Time?


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN Re-Posted Feb 17, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

EURONEXT has now beaten out London retaking back the financial capital insofar as stock trading is concerned thanks to Boris Johnson and of course BREXIT. The numbers are in and Amsterdam surpassed London with an average of €9.2bn shares a day traded on Euronext in January 2021, which was been a 400% increase over December compared to London trading which dropped to €8.6bn retaking its historic position that existed before the Dutch lost it to London.

In 1689, the English Parliament declared that James II had abdicated by deserting his kingdom which was to exclude him and his Stuart heirs because they were all Roman Catholics. Parliament declared that “it hath been found by experience that it is inconsistent with the safety and welfare of this protestant kingdom to be governed by a papist prince”. Thereafter, the Sovereign was required in their coronation oath to swear to maintain the Protestant religion. Parliament in turn offered the throne to William (reigned 1689-1702) and Mary (reigned 1689-94) as joint monarchs.

They had to accept a Bill of Rights drawn up by a Convention of Parliament thereby restricting the Sovereign’s power and reaffirmed Parliament’s claim to control taxation and legislation. Hence, therefore, this Bill ensured Parliament could function free from royal interference forbidding all future sovereigns from suspending or dispensing with laws passed by Parliament in addition to maintaining a standing army in time of peace without Parliament’s consent. Moreover, the sovereign was also forbidden to impose taxes without Parliamentary consent. It was the lack of representation in Parliament by the American colonies which gave rise to the no taxation without representation slogan of the American Revolution.

One of the Dutch William’s main reasons for accepting the English throne was to reinforce the struggle against Louis XIV of France. William’s foreign policy was dominated by the priority to contain French expansionism. England and the Dutch joined the coalition against France during the Nine Years’ War, 1689-1697. Eventually, France was compelled to recognize William as King of England under the Treaty of Ryswick (1697),

The Bank of England was established in 1694 as the expertise from Amsterdam was imported to London. The Bank of England was used at first to raise money for the war by borrowing. It did not circumvent the King’s financial reliance on Parliament, as the national debt depended on parliamentary guarantees. Yet, William’s Dutch advisers were resented in London. In fact, in 1699 his Dutch Blue Guards were forced to leave the country.

The Royal Exchange had been founded by English financier Thomas Gresham and Sir Richard Clough on the model of the Antwerp Bourse. Gresham represented the English crown in Antwerp. Gresham convinced the Crown to open the Royal Exchange in London in 1565 using the Antwerp model. However, it was first known as “the Bourse” until Queen Elizabeth I, after a visit on January 23, 1570, changed its name to the Royal Exchange. It was opened by Elizabeth I of England in 1571. Gresham saw the need for a central place where foreign exchange dealers could meet and conduct business. He recognized the deplorable state of the money supply and that this now made foreign exchange dealers a necessity for trade. He constructed the London Exchange between 1566-1568. It finally received royal recognition and thus it became known as the Royal Exchange in 1571. Unfortunately, it was completely destroyed in the Great London Fire of 1666.

Actually, during the 17th century, stockbrokers were not allowed in the Royal Exchange because they were regarded as rude huxters. Stockbrokers were seen as a lower class compared to foreign exchange and debt. They were confined to off-exchange establishments such as Jonathan’s Coffee-House. Where Llyod’s Coffee House emerged as the place for insurance eventually becoming Lloyd’s of London, the stockbroker began in a coffee house administered by John Castaing who first began listing the prices of a few commodities, such as salt, coal, and paper in 1698. This eventually moved to Garraway’s Coffee House where public auctions began to emerge. They would last based on the length of a tallow candle that could burn. They became known as “by inch of candle” auctions. As the activity grew, the trade began to attract more companies forming which became an IPO market to raise capital.  These are the earliest evidence of organized trading in marketable securities in London which was the resurrection of stock trading from Ancient Rome.

The Royal Exchange established by Thomas Gresham was destroyed in the Great Fire of London which was a major event that swept through the central parts of London from Sunday, September 2nd to Thursday, September 6th, 1666. The fire actually destroyed the medieval City of London which was inside the old Roman city walls. Eventually, the Royal Exchange was rebuilt and re-established in 1669. It was at this time that the stockbrokers joined the Royal Exchange bringing an end to the coffee house period. However, the second Royal Exchange also burned down, on January 10th, 1838. It had been used by Lloyd’s insurance market, which was forced to move temporarily to South Sea House following the 1838 fire.

The current Royal Exchange building was constructed in 1840 and stands opposite the Bank of England. Gresham’s Royal Exchange surpassed Antwerp first because of the fire in 1583 which destroyed the Bourse. Yet it was immediately rebuilt to the same plan. Then came the Siege of Antwerp (1584-1585) and the surrender to the Spanish Army which killed the Dutch trade. Antwerp was simply unable to compete with Amsterdam and London.

What is most curious is that 2021 is precisely 314 years from the birth of Great Britain. The events from the year 1707 created on May 1st the Treaty of Union and its ratification by the 1707 Acts of Union. The fact that Amsterdam has retaken the lead in stock markets seems to be right on schedule.

Boris Johnson has destroyed the British economy and produced just about a 10% decline in GDP for 2020 – the worse collapse in 300 years! So here we have Amsterdam overtaking London in 2021 which is 314 years from the birth of Great Britain. It is amazing how rapidly Boris Johnson has wiped out the British economy.

Putin’s Warnings at the World Economic Forum


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Feb 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Putin’s speech at the World Economic Forum was quite insightful. He said that we “are seeing a crisis of the previous models and instruments of economic development. Social stratification is growing stronger both globally and in individual countries. We have spoken about this before as well. But this, in turn, is causing today a sharp polarisation of public views, provoking the growth of populism, right- and left-wing radicalism and other extremes, and the exacerbation of domestic political processes including in the leading countries.”

While referred to the crisis as being similar economically to the Great Depression, he pointed out that it is “inevitably affecting the nature of international relations and is not making them more stable or predictable. International institutions are becoming weaker, regional conflicts are emerging one after another, and the system of global security is deteriorating.” Indeed, the Hillary allegations that turned the 2016 election into a joke where she manufactured evidence to claim she lost because of Putin, has done far more damage as resurrected the cold war. Putin warned that “the situation could take an unexpected and uncontrollable turn – unless we do something to prevent this.” Biden has immediate sent troops to Syria and ordered the building of a new base there.

Putin elaborated: “There is a chance that we will face a formidable break-down in global development, which will be fraught with a war of all against all and attempts to deal with contradictions through the appointment of internal and external enemies and the destruction of not only traditional values such as the family, which we hold dear in Russia, but fundamental freedoms such as the right of choice and privacy.”

o Our Readers in China – Happy New Year


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Feb 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Ox is the second of all zodiac animals. According to one myth, the Jade Emperor said the order would be decided by the order in which they arrived to his party. The Ox was about to be the first to arrive, but Rat tricked Ox into giving him a ride. Then, just as they arrived, Rat jumped down and landed ahead of Ox. Thus, Ox became the second animal.

From a cyclical perspective, these are years that do correspond to important shifts in trends. The year 1913 was the year of the Ox when both the income tax and the Federal Reserve were created. (125 was the year the bull market really began to take off and real estate was the first to peak 2 years later. Of court 1949 was the first currency devaluation under Bretton Woods. Even 1961 was Kennedy election, 1973 OPEC, 1985 peak in dollar birth of G5, 1997 Asia Currency Crisis, 2009 bottom in the 2007 Financial Crisis, and now 2021 looks to be shaping up as a disaster and Biden takes control. The next will be 2033 one year after our model peaks in 2032.

British Economy Declines Worse in 300 years – Thanks to Boris & his Buddy Bill


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN Re-Posted Feb 12, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The official numbers are in. The British economy shrank 9.9% in 2020 thanks to the deliberate actions of Boris Johnson who should be dragged out of office, tarred, feathered, and stripped of all benefits. He is an absolute traitor to the British people and has sold out Britain to Klaus Schwab and Bill Gates following his father’s anti-population theories. If he and his father are so concerned about population growth, then they should set the example and jump from the clock in Big Ben. This is the greatest economic disaster to hit Britain in 300 years!

EU Refused Transparency Audit of Corruption


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union Re-Posted Feb 12, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The European Parliament refused to cooperate with an EU institutional-wide study on integrity and ethics by Transparency International, one of the world’s most prestigious anti-corruption NGOs. The EU has surrendered to Schwab’s World Economic Forum and it has been Schwab who has hand-picked many people within the EU. He hand-picked the heads of the IMF and the ECB as well as the head of the EU itself. All are, or have, been board members of his World Economic Forum.

“The European Parliament, despite its publicly-stated support for greater transparency was, in fact, the only institution that refused to cooperate,” said Michiel van Hulten, who heads Transparency International’s EU office in Brussels. The EU is suddenly refusing any investigation of corruption because never before have they been so directed by an external force — The Great Reset — intent upon destroying all industries and jobs they deem not to be “green” adopting Schwab’s Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Germany Training Dogs to Sniff out People with COVID


Armstrong Economics Blog/Regulation Re-Posted Feb 11, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Germany is training dogs to sniff out people who have COVID. It seems that Merkel keeps dreaming up more means to restrict the citizens by using the Stasi tactics of East Germany where she grew up. A friend grew up behind the wall. When it fell, his father obtained the Stasi file on him, just as the BigTech and governments now build files on everyone. In that file, his father read that all his friends were reporting him to the Stasi. He no longer retains any friends, for his trust in humanity was destroyed. When his father returned home, he began punching holes in the walls. My friend thought his father was nuts. But then he was pulling out microphones where the government was always listening to whatever he said, even at home.

smelling-jars

Ministry for State Security (Stasi) smelling jars _ From the Vault

Let’s get honest here. The only other intelligence agency to collect evidence on everyone was the notorious Stasi of East Germany. When the wall came down, the extent of the secret police operations targeted against their own people was mind-blowing. What surfaced was their“smelling jars” collection. Yes, the Stasi used odor recognition to keep tabs on anyone they suspected. The Stasi often collected the samples covertly by breaking into homes to stealing a suspects’ used underwear. They then kept them in jars in case they turned up missing to hunt them down.

I find this very disturbing when COVID has a kill ratio of only 0.028% and governments are using this to wipe out all freedom and human rights which include the freedom of speech.