They said he wouldn’t pull out of the Paris Climate Treaty, he did.  They said he wouldn’t withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, he did.  They said he wouldn’t implement global Steel/Aluminum tariffs, he did.  They said he wouldn’t dare withdraw from the G7 agreement in Canada, he did.  They said he couldn’t get Canada to agree to a new NAFTA agreement, he did… the list is long.

One of the more consequential aspects to President Trump is he doesn’t bluff.  Regardless of the scale of the assertion, every adversary is WELL AWARE he will do what he threatens if the situation he confronts doesn’t change.  In this regard, no president, NO-ONE, has ever instilled such direct and focused fear once an adversarial issue, intentionally or unwittingly, falls into Trump’s sights.  They know he will do this:

The truth is, regardless of opposition or public opinion; regardless of how the media will attack the decision; President Trump will factually shut down the U.S-Mexico border if that becomes the remaining best option to deal with the crisis and protect U.S. interests.

Mexico knows this too.

The guy simply doesn’t bluff.

It’s the darnedest thing we’ve ever seen in modern politics…. seriously.

They said his economic plans wouldn’t deliver 3% GDP growth, they are.

They said he couldn’t pull-off a unity accord between North and South Korea, he did.

The list is long…

The Washington Times is reporting on a possible agreement between U.S. and Mexico officials to keep all Central American asylum seekers outside the U.S. during the process to evaluate their asylum claims.

The important backdrop here is the new Mexican President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), taking office on December 1st.  If the reporting is correct, there may be an agreement in the works between President Trump’s administration and AMLO’s team.

Reading between the lines, the mutually beneficial structure of such an agreement is likely based within prior economic (trade) discussions. [CTH sees Jared Kushner’s diplomatic fingerprints at work]  Friends with benefits….

(Via Washington Times) Immigrants seeking asylum in the United States by entering through Mexico could be required to wait south of the border while U.S. courts assess their cases, a member of the incoming Mexican government said in an interview published Saturday.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico’s president-elect, plans to implement a policy known as “Remain in Mexico” after taking office next month, his top domestic policy official told The Washington Post.

“For now, we have agreed to this policy of Remain in Mexico,” said Olga Sánchez Cordero, Mexico’s incoming interior minister, The Post reported.

Called a “short-term solution” by Ms. Sánchez Cordero, the pending policy change is expected to earn praise north of the border from President Trump, who has vowed to reform federal immigration policies said launching his 2016 campaign.  (read more)

In June 2018 President Trump instructed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to initiate a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods (Round #1).  After two months of China refusing to negotiate renewed trade deals in good faith President Trump instructed Lighthizer to increase the tariff rate to 25% in August (Round #2).  There is a third tranche of tariffs scheduled for January 1st, 2019.

With a full quarter of trade data to analyze the impacts, the results are now measurable.  A multinational group studying the outcome (full pdf below), identified that approximately 4.5% of the tariff is being carried by American consumers.  The overwhelming cost of the tariff is being paid (20.5% absorbed) by Chinese producers.

(Via Bloomberg) President Donald Trump is succeeding in making China pay most of the cost of his trade war.

That’s the conclusion of a new paper from EconPol Europe, a network of researchers in the European Union. U.S. companies and consumers will only pay 4.5 percent more after the nation imposed 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, and the other 20.5 percent toll will fall on Chinese producers, according to authors Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek and Gabriel Felbermayr.

[…] “Through its strategic choice of Chinese products, the U.S. government was not only able to minimize the negative effects on U.S. consumers and firms, but also to create substantial net welfare gains in the U.S.,” the researchers wrote.  (read more)

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/394040915/content?start_page=1&view_mode=&access_key=key-AOOuZ3kU2rBxkC7NRWaL

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In June and July last year it became obvious President Trump was going to initiate a full-frontal geopolitical confrontation with China based on their ambitions for economic conquest.  We labeled the confrontation: Eagle -vs- Red Dragon.

Specifically around: intellectual property theft; massive U.S. trade imbalances; imposed tariffs, and ridiculous non-tariff barriers put in place by China, we anticipated the conflict would eventually force Beijing to drop the Panda mask and expose their economic intentions.  Additionally there was clarity within President Trump’s approach for any observer who was willing to accept the history of Mr. Trump’s views on the larger issues. In short, POTUS Trump will not back down.

In March of 2018 U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer completed a section 301 review of China’s trade practices.  [SEE HERE] Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 authorizes the President to take all appropriate action, including retaliation, to obtain the removal of any act, policy, or practice of a foreign government that violates an international trade agreement or is unjustified, unreasonable, or discriminatory, and that burdens or restricts U.S. commerce.  However, as talks with China progressed, President Trump shelved the 301 action to see where negotiations would end-up.

Due to the severity of communist ideology, and the intransigence of China to make any modification to their global economic plans, Chairman Xi Jinping made the strategic decision to elevate the confrontation in full Red Dragon mode.  The May and June, 2018, negotiations between the U.S. and China provided no progress.  The 301 review of China was pulled back off the shelf in August 2018, and President Trump began executing his trade-war strategy.

When President Trump and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced tariffs on Steel and Aluminum, in combination with Round #1 tariffs on imported Chinese products, the Wall Street financial media went bananas with dire predictions of inflation.

However, in September and October the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the August and Sept measures of inflation in consumer goods.  Despite the doom-and-gloom predictions from the self-interested multinationals, the inflation rate is still below 0.2% the same result as July ’18.  Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food components, is hovering between 0.1% and 0.2% overall.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 250,000 in October, following an average monthly gain of 211,000 over the prior 12 months. In October, job growth occurred in health care, in manufacturing, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)

Low inflation; expanding employment opportunity; low unemployment; and rising wages.

These measures all have a cumulative impact on paycheck-to-paycheck Americans.  Prices for durable goods are stable and wage growth is exceeding inflation.  That means more disposable income in the middle-class…. which, when combined with the increased pay from lower middle-class tax rates, is exactly the intended outcome of MAGAnomics.

This creates a situation where the U.S. consumer can fuel the the U.S. economy while President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and Ambassador Robert Lighthizer utilize the leverage within tariffs, to negotiate better America-First trade deals.

President Trump’s economic policy cabinet is the most effective group of individuals every assembled in modern U.S. history; arguably in all of U.S. history.   The economic policy plans are working exactly as projected; and, in combination with the domestic economic strength, this empowers President Trump’s international engagements with a stunning amount of influence and leverage.

Economic Security is National Security.  We are seeing this multidimensional truth being carried out for the first time in our lifetimes, thanks to a blue-collar billionaire.

The most consequential long-term challenge being confronted by President Trump surrounds the influence of communist China, and their state-controlled economic conquest strategy.

To quantify the scale of the issues, in 2017 President Trump commissioned a Section 301 review by the United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.  In March 2018, Lighthizer delivered his report.  That initial report became the baseline for the tariffs levied against Beijing.  Yesterday, Lighthizer released an update of that ongoing review.  The report is below:

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/393902698/content?start_page=1&view_mode=&access_key=key-kjNtouzB6djFEcPBapQB

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Remember, the Chinese red dragon has a tendency to say one necessary thing publicly, while manipulating another necessary thing privately. Cunning is part of ‘The Art of War’.

President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask.

It is specifically because he understands the Panda is a mask that President Trump messages warmth toward the Chinese people, and pours vociferous praise upon Xi Jinping, while simultaneously confronting the geopolitical doctrine of the Xi regime.

In essence Trump is mirroring the behavior of China while confronting their economic duplicity.

Peace or war. Win or lose. Yin and Yang. Culturally there is no middle position in dealings with China; they are not constitutionally capable of understanding or valuing the western philosophy of mutual benefit where concession of terms gains a larger outcome. If it does not benefit China, it is not done. The outlook is simply, a polarity of peace or war. In politics or economics the same perspective is true. It is a zero-sum outlook.

If it does not benefit China, it is not done !

Therefore the economic battle must be carefully waged to deliver a series of alternative thoughts in the mind of Beijing – where they view specific action as their best interest.  Any reversal in the current standard of benefit is viewed as a loss; the Chinese will not cede to any losses.  To challenge those who hold this zero-sum position, you must first change the current standard.

This means China must lose first before the negotiations can begin.  The baseline within the negotiation must be reset.  Once the baseline position is reset, then, and only then, can forward negotiation be viewed by the Chinese as a gain.  This is the only way to get the Chinese to agree to any terms.

If the baseline losses to China are not currently firmed/cemented, such that Beijing and Xi Jinping see their current position as the standard, then President Trump and Bob Lighthizer need to wait longer before engaging.

Big Panda must see their diminished bamboo forest as the natural, current, and diminishing forecast status.  Only then will Panda engage in negotiations.  China must be in a seemingly perpetual stasis of losing before they will contemplate their need to achieve gains.

This is an economic and geopolitical battle that requires nerves of steel and an incredible amount of cunning and strategy.  As President Trump resets the baseline, China will make multiple simultaneous moves to counter any potential losses.

President Trump, Secretary Ross and U.S.T.R. Lighthizer must think well ahead of China (they have); and make moves early in the conflict (they have); long before China realizes they are being confronted (they did).   {Go Deep} As we saw with the DPRK showdown Trump was several moves ahead of Xi, and blocked the counter-offense position of the Red Dragon before it was deployed.

President Trump will not back down from his position; the U.S. holds all of the leverage and the issue must be addressed. President Trump has waited three decades for this moment. This President and his team are entirely prepared for this.

We are finally confronting the geopolitical Red Dragon, China!

The Olive branch and arrows denote the power of peace and war. The symbol in any figure’s right hand has more significance than one in its left hand. Also important is the direction faced by the symbols central figure. The emphasis on the eagles stare signifies the preferred disposition. An eagle holding an arrow also symbolizes the war for freedom, and its use is commonly referred to the liberation fight of righteous people from abusive influence. The eagle on the original seal created for the Office of the President showed the gaze upon the arrows.

The Eagle and the Arrow – An Aesop’s Fable

An Eagle was soaring through the air. Suddenly it heard the whizz of an Arrow, and felt the dart pierce its breast. Slowly it fluttered down to earth. Its lifeblood pouring out. Looking at the Arrow with which it had been shot, the Eagle realized that the deadly shaft had been feathered with one of its own plumes.

Moral: We often give our enemies the means for our own destruction.