Published on Feb 27, 2019
From the attached report on climate change for January 2019 we have the two charts showing how much has the global temperature actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere? To show this graphically Chart 8 was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up about 30.0% from 1958 to October of 2018. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree. Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) are almost un-measurable. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 40 % on the left and 4% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .30%; while CO2 has increased by 30.0% which is 100 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem? The numbers tell us no there isn’t.
The next chart is Chart 8a which is the same as Chart 8 except for the scales which are the same for both CO2 and Temperature. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for the previous chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2. Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or twenty years.
Click on the link below for the full report that you can download.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics
Re-Posted Feb 28, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
While historically there have been three major events that altered political history, everyone on the left are cheering Cohen for what they hope will be the fourth. The first was the Supreme Court decision in the “Dred Scott v. Sandford ” case which led to the founding of the Republican Party and ultimately to the American Civil War holding that blacks were effectively property. Then there were the “Army McCarthy Hearings,” which contributed to the downfall of Communist-hunter Joe McCarthy showing he just made up stuff. Then the final event was the Watergate hearing before the US Senate – the beginning of the end of the Nixon era.
Cohen testified that he had been in the room when Donald Trump telephoned during the election campaign Roger Stone who then told Trump that Julian Assange of Wikileaks had told him that he would soon publish emails that would harm Hillary Clinton. Cohen stated that Trump’s reaction was: “Would not that be great.” But the allegations that these were obtained came after that fact and was asserted by Democrats who merely said that it appeared to be Russians who hacked the emails. That is really nothing explosive.
The next bombshell was when Cohen testified that on behalf of Donald Trump, he had paid hush money to porn actress Stormy Daniels and a Playboy model so that the American public would not learn about the affairs that Trump had entertained with these two women. Under US law, such payments are considered illegal campaign contributions which is really a stretch and appears to be manufactured by prosecutors for political purposes. Cohen stated that Trump paid back the hush money in installments when he was president – not before so that cannot be construed as a campaign contribution after the fact.
Nevertheless, to pay a bribe to someone to keep quiet that comes from their personal account and not campaign funds raised from the public hardly seems to be a crime. This is a completely new theory of law and if I were Trump I would file for a Declaratory Judgment. Merely that Cohen pleads guilty to this theory and personal tax evasion does not make it a crime. Since Cohen has pleaded guilty and is sentenced to 3 years in prison, he should not be walking around free. Anyone else would have been taken into custody at sentencing. Clearly, there is a backdoor deal going on here in New York.
The final political statement was Michael Cohen lied to Congress that Donald Trump had business with Russia. In fact, Trump, while conducting his election campaign was busy executing a lucrative real estate deal in Moscow. Nonetheless, that deal turned out to be nothing. Cohen then claimed that Trump knew he was lying to Congress, by concedes he did not order him to lie.
Michael Cohen calls President Trump a racist, con man, and cheat during his opening statement before the House Oversight Committee. Throwing in the term “racist” is clearly a word selected for political purposes. Cohen says Trump overstates his worth for loans and understands it for taxes. There is not a single public company that I know of who does not practice those allegations. Even HR Block promises to make sure you pay the least tax. That is the role of an accountant. This too seems crafted to create headlines for 2020.
Therefore, nothing that Cohen actually testified to is a crime and it is more designed to try to ensure Trump does not win in 2020. Cohen should be in jail right now. He is walking around like a dog on a leash for prosecutors trying to take down a seating president.
The time line is seriously flawed. For Stone to even say that Wikileaks is about to publish emails on Hillary is not a crime and there are many people who knew what was coming. That does not link Trump to Putin or shows that Trump directed Putin to get Hillary’s emails.
This appears to be more of the Deep State hard at work but in the process, they are undermining the entire confidence in government. The mere statement that Trump is a racist who thinks blacks are stupid is clearly made for political reaction to harm Trump in 2020. This man was his attorney and his testimony demonstrates that the oath of lawyers and the Attorney client-privilege has been seriously broken. Anyone would never hire him in such a role. He just committed career-suicide.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest
Re-Posted Feb 28, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I am in the fashion industry and it becomes painfully obvious that there are cycles in fashion. You have mentioned before the economic correlations of the rise and fall of women’s skirts and how men’s ties widen and then narrow. What do you make of this year’s fashions that seem to be very political and disturbing?
ANSWER: It certainly appears to be in line with our cycle of civil unrest. I must admit, the black face one is one thing, but the hoodie with the hangman’s noose is hard to explain as just coincidence. The designer for Burberry claimed to be following a “nautical” theme. I can only take a guess at this one and assume it reflects the polarization within society. There are clearly cycles in fashion. There were cycles in fashion among women that are clearly identifiable even on the coinage.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate
Re-Posted Feb 28, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: I confess. I use to be a Democrat. I can no longer accept this insanity. This new green deal is just stupid. I like how you are unbiased. That is so rare these days. You should turn this into a TV network to compete against FOX and CNN just taking the middle ground.
REPLY: This New Green Deal is just beyond all belief. It has to be raised by someone like AOC because anyone with any intelligence would see it for what it is — complete insanity. If the Democrats are really going to let her dominate the party, then they are courting their own destruction. Eliminating all air travel will result in massive starvation. If there is a plague that begins in Africa, doctors cannot fly there to help. It is not even practical enough to warrant a debate.
You are not the first to suggest creating a middle of the road REAL news station. We would need some real money-backers for that.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient Economies
Re-Posted Feb 28, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hi Marty,
Wanted to ask you if you are noticing the same thing as me regarding the ‘quality’ of goods and services these days and if this is history repeating itself again, such as the fall of the Roman empire?
To explain, I am noticing that the quality of the goods and services I buy whether durables or consumables is terrible and only getting worse. Nothing is built to last (such as tools, electronics, even vehicles), and the quality of consumables such as food and services is b-grade at best and it is hard to find alternatives.
I live in Australia and just about everything is made overseas, such as China. I bought a simple axe from a hardware store and it lasted 3 weeks. Had it replaced and it lasted 3 more weeks. Went back to see if I could find one made in Australia and could not find any.
Rents are expensive but landlords treat you like your scum, not to mention insurance companies.
Car registration is expensive and yet the quality of our roads is terrible.
Economists often say competition is good but they don’t seem to recognize how the quality of our produced goods and services is suffering a result.
I delivered some building materials to a client one day and he proceeded to tell me how he had a fancy door made and shipped from China for less than $1700, but that to have the same door made locally, he was quoted $6400. I proceeded to then tell him, that is ok for you as you have saved money, but are you aware that every time we buy stuff from China, China’s mountain of Australian dollars gets bigger and bigger, and the only place they can spend those Australian dollars is back here in Australia, and so is it any wonder that Chinese investors are buying up our real estate? The mans’ face went WHITE!!!
Are you noticing the same thing and are you able to draw a parallel between now and other historical times?
ANSWER: Both the quality of goods and services declined during the 2nd century (post-180 AD), and society began to decline overall even morally. An interesting view is that of an outsider looking in. The author of this interesting quote is the famous 10th-century Arab geographer and historian Abu al-Hasan al-Mas’udi (c. 896–956AD) of Baghdad. He reflected upon what unfolded in Europe, expressing the grim reality in the early Middle Ages through a foreigner’s eyes. In outlining the peoples of the world for his contemporaries, an Arab geographer of the day described Europeans as having “large bodies, gross natures, harsh manners, and dull intellects . . . those who live farthest north are particularly stupid, gross and brutish.” He described the fall of Rome, and in describing western civilization, he effectively used similar concepts that the classical historians like Herodotus and Tacitus had once used to describe the barbarian world outside of European civilization.
The sequence of events leading up to such drastic changes begins with high taxes and hunting the rich as we are witnessing today. Maximinus I declared all private wealth belonged to the States which was just one more step to the left from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and AOC. Once you do that, the result is the hoarding of wealth and that ends up contracting investment creating an economic death spiral. Education declines and regulation rises as the government seeks more power. The overall trend creates a precipitous drop in quality of life, and all the very reasons for the rise of civilization are then reversed and the trend moves from concentration to separation. This is the overall general scheme as to the reasons why Rome fell.
Keep in mind that the Dark Ages were about 600 years. So we need not worry about this complete collapse in our lifetime. Nevertheless, we are experiencing the early stages of the decline and fall of Western Civilization. The government pensions will create the same trend of fragmentation and turning government employees against the people. We will see the split of the European Union and the same in Canada as well as Australia. The United States will also split as some regions will reject the socialist regions and their attempts to subjugate their beliefs to their own.
If Rome’s sheer size made it difficult to govern because centralized government always fails. This contributed to the ineffective and inconsistent leadership which only served to magnify the problem as we are witnessing today as politics also has become highly polarized. Being the Roman emperor became a highly risky position during the 2nd and 3rd centuries. Civil war became commonplace as people made attempts to take power or to separate. This would thrust the empire into chaos, which we will begin to experience after 2020. The Praetorian Guard—the emperor’s personal bodyguards—assassinated and installed new sovereigns at will, and once even auctioned the spot off to the highest bidder who was Didius Julianus (193AD). There were two rival bidders but Julianus won paying 25,000 sestertii per man, which was the high bid and he was duly declared Emperor. However, the Praetorians were not loyal to him and he was beheaded on June 2nd after a reign of only 66 days.
The Praetorian Guard became the same as we have today with the Deep State, illustrated in the FBI, CIA, and NSA all conspiring to overthrow Trump. This political chaos also extended to the Roman Senate as it has currently in modern times. The Senate became a cesspool of corruption that failed to temper the excesses of the emperors due to its own widespread corruption and incompetence (i.e. gridlock). As the situation worsened, civic pride waned and many Roman citizens lost trust in their leadership. Trajan Decius (249-251AD) was the first Roman Emperor to be killed in battle with the Barbarians. That had a great impact on the confidence of the people in government. They suddenly saw themselves as vulnerable. Then, in 260 AD, the Roman Emperor Valerian I (253-260AD) was captured and kept as a slave to the Persian king. That was the final straw, and we see the collapse of the Roman Monetary System within 8.6 years.
The Barbarian attacks on Rome partially stemmed from a mass migration caused by the Huns’ invasion of Europe in the late fourth century. As the Huns moved West, the barbarians were compelled to invade. Once they saw that Rome was vulnerable following the capture of Valerian, the invasions began in mass. This led to the Roman Empire dividing into three regions. Postumus (260-268 AD) led the rebellion creating the Gaulic Empire (Britain-France-Spain) and in the East Zenobia carved out her Empire based in Syria.
We are simply following the very same pattern in the same order. History repeats simply because human nature never changes. We would always like to think we are smarter and different. That has never proven to be anything more than a preferred delusion.
Despite several positive and remarkable comments from Kim Jong-un, President Donald Trump and the North Korean Chairman could not come to a substantive agreement after two days of negotiations on the process to denuclearize the Korean peninsula.
During a press conference prior to departing Hanoi, Vietnam, President Trump cited two issues: (1) A North Korean demand for the immediate removal of all multinational economic sanctions; and (2) The unwillingness of North Korea to be fulsome about their missile and nuclear locations. WATCH:
In the backdrop of the Hanoi summit, and as U.S-China trade negotiations continue, the Trump administration suspended the implementation of the March 1st tariff increase on Chinese goods. Unfortunately, attaining this goal may have empowered a cunning Chairman Xi Jinping to influence the demands of DPRK Chairman Kim.
A covert influence connection will become clear if President Trump now takes an even more firm trade and tariff position toward China. We’ll keep watching closely.
Chairman Xi may have won this round, but we can expect an angered and strategic President Trump to hit back twice as hard.
In this dance with the dragon President Trump cannot simply reverse the tariff suspension, that approach would be too obvious. Instead my suggestion would be to look for signs of the U.S. reviewing Chinese violations of the North Korea sanctions.
A key indicator will be if over the next several weeks, we see the U.S. Treasury and/or Commerce Department beginning to point out those who are violating the sanctions against North Korea.
It’s an open secret that China is the largest violator; but President Trump has been giving everyone a pass due to progress on both the China trade and DPRK nuclear talks.
With a set-back in the overall process, and with China playing games, we might just see a renewed focus on U.S. sanction enforcement, specifically targeting China.
What we will not see is President Trump acquiescing to China on trade and economics simply to get Kim Jong-un away from Beijing’s clutches. That massive ransom payment falls too heavily, and too exclusively, on the United States – while regional allies gain the benefits of peace on the back of a lessened U.S. economy.
That sh!t deal wouldn’t pass the MAGAnomic ‘America First’ test; not even close.
That exact conversation is what President Trump likely will be explaining to South Korean President Moon Jae-in (the Asian Obama), and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on the flight home. THAT EXACT CONVERSATION!
Statement from the Press Secretary Regarding the Hanoi Summit:
“President Donald J. Trump of the United States and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea had very good and constructive meetings in Hanoi, Vietnam, on February 27-28, 2019. The two leaders discussed various ways to advance denuclearization and economic driven concepts. No agreement was reached at this time, but their respective teams look forward to meeting in the future.”
As the Summit concludes with no agreement, President Trump will be holding a press conference shortly.
President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un held extended one-on-one and small group meetings on day two of their Hanoi summit. The schedule below may no longer be accurate (but the sequence should be roughly correct, maybe).
Vietnam is 12 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern Time. Most of the substantive public activities, including a
joint signing ceremony and POTUS Trump press conference, will take place early Thursday morning U.S. time. Again, due to extended substantive Trump-Kim discussions, the schedule is now fluid… adjust expectations accordingly.
*Tentative* Schedule and Livestream(s) Below:
Sarah Sanders informs media the negotiations are ongoing but will wrap up at Metropole in next 30 to 45 minutes and Potus will return to Marriott. Press conference moved up from 4 p.m. to start at 2 p.m. She declined to say whether there would still be a joint signing ceremony but appears unlikely.
2:40am EST / 2:40pm (local)– President Trump departs Sofitel Legend Metropole Hanoi en route to the JW Marriott Hotel Hanoi. Hanoi, Vietnam 3:00am EST / 3:00pm (local)– President Trump arrives at the JW Marriott Hotel Hanoi. Hanoi, Vietnam 3:50am EST / 3:50 pm (local)– President Trump participates in a press conference. Hanoi, Vietnam
- 5:15am EST / 5:15 pm (local) – President Trump departs JW Marriott Hotel Hanoi en route to Noi Bai International Airport. Hanoi, Vietnam
- 5:55am EST / 5:55pm (local) – President Trump arrives at Noi Bai International Airport Hanoi, Vietnam
- 6:05am EST / 6:05pm (local) – President Trump departs Hanoi, Vietnam, en route to Joint Base Andrews, Noi Bai International Airport
- 1:10am EST Friday Morning – President Donald Trump arrives at Joint Base Andrews
- 1:20am EST Friday Morning – President Donald Trump departs Joint Base Andrews en route to The White House, Joint Base Andrews
- 1:30am EST Friday Morning – President Trump arrives at The White House
We can somewhat throw out the schedule; President Trump and Chairman Kim held a much longer one-on-one, and informal small group discussion….. Culminating in this historic moment with the media present and the formal bilat about to begin.
First, watch Chairman Kim Jong-un take questions from U.S. media. That’s historic. Second, and more importantly, listen carefully to the answers: MUST WATCH
U.S. Journalist: “Chairman Kim are you willing to denuclearize?”
Chairman Kim Jong-un: “If I’m not willing to do that, I won’t be here right now.”
POTUS Trump injected: “That might be the best answer you’ve ever heard.”
Rough translations of exchanges:
Another U.S. reporter asked if Chairman Kim was willing to take concrete steps to denuclearize? Chairman Kim replied: “That’s what we are discussing right now.”
President Trump was asked if there would be a political statement to end the war?
Trump response: “No matter what happens we’ll ultimately have a deal that’s really good for Chairman Kim and his country. That’s where it’s all leading. It doesn’t mean we’re doing it in one day, in one meeting. I really believe with this great leadership North Korea, I really believe it’s going to be very successful.”
Chairman Kim was asked if he was ready for the US to have a liaison office in Pyongyang. A north Korean aide appeared to attempt to cut off questions but POTUS Trump interjected: “that’s actually an interesting question. I would like to actually like to hear that answer. “
Chairman Kim replied: “That is something that is welcomeable.”
President Trump said the idea was a “great thing.”
Chairman Kim then seemed to be done with questions: “If you’ll kindly give us more time, one minute.”