Monthly Archives: June 2019

Jun 22 2019

Climate Change & Solar Minimum


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Jun 19, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT:

Hello Martin,

You’ve covered the topic of increasing seismic activity and the correlation with climate change extensively in your daily blog.

Since the solar activity started to decline (cycle 24) around +/- 2014-2015, it seems that the rate of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are increasing worldwide.

Below I have added some links as reference to very recent (violent) volcanic explosions. I have also included a link to an overview of actual active volcanoes on earth. It is predicted that solar cycle 24 will end around 2021-2022 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24#/media/File:Solar_cycle_24_sunspot_number_progression_and_prediction.gif) meaning that seismic activity will increase.

I cannot make the claim that there is an increase in seismic activity but there seems to be something brewing beneath our feet. The amount of volcanic ashes which is being propelled into the atmosphere at this moment must have an adverse effect on the global temperatures, and if the correlation holds up this is just the beginning.

Best regards,

SG

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/italy.html

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/popocatepetl/news/81709/Popocatepetl-volcano-Mexico-strong-explosion-yesterday-morning-sends-ash-to-32000-ft-10-km-altitude.html

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/fileadmin/maps/active-volcano-map.jpg

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/agung/news/81518/Agung-volcano-Bali-Indonesia-strong-explosion-this-morning-ash-to-30000-ft.html

REPLY: It is truly amazing to me how unprofessional the research has been. I do not know. In hedge fund management I always had to watch what was taking place around the world, so there were constantly multiple relations going on that the research I did was always global. It seems to be just a routine check to correlate everything and see what pops up. The climate change is cyclical and earthquakes and volcanic activity rise during a solar minimum. I fail to grasp why, if you really want to do research, you have to dig up the evidence.

Leonardo da Vinci left behind drawings of human body parts. He was curious as to how the body functioned. It was said that Leonardo would often dissect unclaimed bodies, such as drunks and vagrants. Those bodies were more likely to be male. It was definitely harder to get female bodies to dissect. Nevertheless, Leonardo found one dead pregnant woman to dissect to try to understand how everything worked. That is how research is done. You have to check all possibilities if you want to call it research rather than propaganda. As with the arguments for human-induced climate change (as distinguished from pollution), we cannot simply make assumptions and then assume something that has risen five years in a row will do so forever. That type of forecast in financial markets would be laughed at by everyone. Still, this is how the dire forecasts are being made in climate change and it seems to be simply to get money and fame.

Jun 22 2019

Manipulating the World Economy


Armstrong Economics Blog/Products and Services

Re-Posted Jun 22, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

A lot of questions have been pouring in from how much to will there be a kindle version. I am not sure of the cost yet. That depends on the printer. It will be full color and extensively illustrated. It covers everything you wanted to know about what is going on with the central banks. There will be a documentary film next year on this subject matter.

The price will be for general circulation worldwide. As soon as it is available, we will let everyone know.

Jun 22 2019

Trump Clarifies Attack Not Appropriate Since No American Loss of Life


Armstrong Economics Blog/War

Re-Posted Jun 21, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

To the hatred of the neocons, including Bolton, Trump has explained that it was inappropriate to retaliate against Iran when 150 people would be killed for the downing of a drone. This not merely shows the nature of Trump, but clearly displays the efforts behind the curtain to get rid of him to wage another war.

Jun 22 2019

President Trump and First Lady Melania Host Congressional Picnic…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 21, 2019 by 

Earlier today President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump hosted the annual congressional picnic at the White House.

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Jun 22 2019

Magnanimous Panda Departs Pyongyang After “reinforcing the traditional friendship between China and North Korea”…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 21, 2019 by 

The money quote from Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping in the role of magnanimous panda as he departs Chairman Kim:

“This visit has achieved complete success in reinforcing the traditional friendship between China and North Korea”..

Kim remains hostage, and Xi highlights his captive capabilities in advance of the G20 ‘expanded’ meeting with President Trump in Osaka, Japan.  Magnanimous panda thinks he’s created leverage for hostage release negotiations with Trump in exchange for economic and trade concessions… except he hasn’t.

Beijing has fallen into a trap created by a combination of their cultural approach toward geopolitical confrontation and an echo-chamber that does not allow -or consider- warnings from dissenting voices.  In essence, it might sound goofy considering the magnitude of the issues at hand, but Beijing doesn’t know President Trump.

One of the reasons for the miscalculation is likely due to Beijing weighing their analysis and strategy based on typical Western reporting similar to THIS ARTICLE in the New York Times.

NYT […] Before Mr. Xi landed in Pyongyang on Thursday, American officials said they expected him to try to secure Mr. Kim’s promise to take steps on nuclear weapons that might appeal to Mr. Trump, in hopes of gaining leverage for China in the trade dispute.

Mr. Xi signaled as much in a televised session with Mr. Kim on his first afternoon in Pyongyang, when he emphasized the need for the North and the United States to revive talks that broke down in Vietnam in February, when Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump last met.

“The international community hopes that North Korea and the United States can talk and for the talks to get results,” Mr. Xi said, sitting across a table from Mr. Kim. (read more)

That Western outlook is what has led to the miscalculation by Chairman Xi.

It would appear that former ‘special envoy’ and Chinese negotiator, Vice-Premier Liu He, did have a solid understanding of President Trump.  However, after working closely with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Beijing summarily rejected the deal and removed the status of Liu He as a direct representative voice of Chairman Xi.

With that, everything collapsed. Hence, the current status.

The ongoing miscalculation is really quite simple.  Thinking that he can leverage the stability of the DPRK (his proxy province) in a trade discussion with President Trump, Chairman Xi has positioned himself as the arbiter of a denuclearized North Korea.  However, in doing so Xi has taken public ownership of any future DPRK hostilities.

China has always held control over North Korea as a hedge against Western interests; however, Beijing has always strategically denied their influence.  This dynamic is the center of the issue. This is what President Trump needed to change.

From the perspective of President Trump engaging with Chairman Xi, the removal of the curtain hiding the control is just as valuable as removal of the control itself.

A withdrawal by China (hostage released), or the public appearance of the control by China (captive admission) serves the same purpose.  The DPRK cannot mount hostile action.  Chairman Xi now owns the problem of any North Korean hostilities.

That connection was all President Trump needed strategically in order to confront China and remove the worry of hostile actions coordinated by Beijing through Chairman Kim.

Chairman Xi walks into the G20 to negotiate with President Trump, but selling influence over the DPRK to gain a better trade outcome no longer has value.

SCMP – […] In a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un before returning to Beijing, Xi also said China was determined to support the country’s new “strategic path”, Chinese state-run newspaper People’s Dailyreported.

“This visit … has achieved complete success in reinforcing the traditional friendship between China and North Korea,” Xi was quoted as saying.

“It has laid down the direction of future development of China-North Korean relations in the new era, and also shown to the outside world the firm determination of China and North Korea in achieving a political resolution to the Korean peninsula problem and delivering long-lasting peace in the region.”

North Korea’s state media quoted Kim as emphasising Beijing’s rock solid relationship with Pyongyang. According to Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Kim told Xi that his visit was “decisive” in showing the unchanging friendship between the two countries to the world. (read more)

With the DPRK retaliatory threat removed; and with Chairman Xi now owning any hostile action from inside North Korea; President Trump can now take more aggressive action toward China on global trade and economic influence.

The magnanimous panda has walked into a geopolitical trap.  President Trump now controls the bamboo forest….

BenTallmadge@BenKTallmadge

U.S. Commerce Department bars China supercomputer firms and a government-owned institute from buying American parts and components without govt approval – Reuters

⁦@TheLastRefuge2⁩ @Avery1776 ⁦@MischaEDM⁩ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-commerce-china/u-s-bars-china-supercomputer-firms-institute-from-buying-american-parts-idUSKCN1TM212 …

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Twitter Ads info and privacy

U.S. bars China supercomputer firms, institute from buying American…

The U.S. Commerce Department said on Friday it was adding several Chinese companies and a government-owned institute involved in supercomputing with military applications to its national security…

reuters.com

Jun 22 2019

Jim Jordan Discusses Embarrassing Spectacle of Hope Hicks Testimony…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 21, 2019 by 

Jim Jordan appears on Fox News to explain how House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler is attempting to weave a tenuous impeachment plan through the politicization of ongoing congressional hearings.  The latest evidence is within in the testimony of former White House Communications Director Hope Hicks. [Full pdf below]

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The transcript of Hope Hicks testimony is below:

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Jun 22 2019

President Trump Cancels Disproportionate Counter-Attack on Iran…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 21, 2019 by 

Lots of differing opinion on the decision by POTUS to cancel a retaliatory strike against Iran.  Some praise and some criticize.   Here’s President Trump’s reason for cancelling the strike against Iran:

As it relates to the Trump doctrine, CTH would note any current ally of the U.S; and/or any entity engaged with significant economic interests attached to the U.S; including any EU entity who might have previously been skirting the sanctions against Iran (think Turkey); would now be very cautious about appearing on President Trump and Secretary Mnuchin’s proverbial radar.

Jun 22 2019

National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd Discusses ICE Immigration Enforcement…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 21, 2019 by 

President Trump announced on Twitter last week about an enhanced immigration enforcement action to remove illegal aliens.  National Border Patrol Council president Brandon Judd appears on Fox Business to discuss the upcoming program.

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Interestingly, no-one has wondered why there would be such advanced and public notification of the upcoming enhanced enforcement. Curiouser and curiouser…

Jun 21 2019

Iran on Schedule for the War Cycle


Armstrong Economics Blog/War

Re-Posted Jun 21, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I am a Muslim and I have just read you War Cycle report from 2015where you provide your forecast for this crisis we are cascading into. You historical analysis is fair and honest. Most people have no idea of the history of the region no less the divisions in Islam. Your forecast is coming into play. It looks like a countdown for the next year.

I wanted to take the time to express my respect for your world view and how you remain the voice of reason.

ABS

REPLY: I have been a student of history my whole life. But memorizing battles and dates and handing out titles like “The Great” (Magnus) for winning a war to me is the noise. The key to history is understand the patterns and once you see the patterns, it no longer justifies one position against another. I have come to understand Thrasymachus who observed that it did not matter what form of government we lived under, JUSTICE is always defined as the self-interest of government. Once I looked at his observation, it became crystal clear that it also did not apply to merely government, but all aspects of any group that seized power under a variety of labels including religion.

The English Civil War was also supposed to be about religion – Puritans v Catholics. Oliver Cromwell overthrew King Charles I and even beheaded him. He then issued coins calling himself the Lord Protector, but they carried his portrait with an olive wreath as if he too were then king. The Puritans outlawed all sports because that led to cursing, plays for they were lies, Christmas for you should be praying not celebrating, and it became a felony subject to death for kissing you wife in public. Indeed, Thrasymachus hit the nail on the head about 2,000 year before Cromwell – justice is simply the self-interest of those in power.

History repeats BECAUSE the patterns repeat and they are patterns of human reactions. I tried to do a good job in that report on the Middle East. The target date is rapidly approaching. Indeed, we have nearly a year to understand what is taking place.

Make no mistake about it. The majority of the youth in Iran do NOT support the current government in Iran. This also raises the stakes for the current religious regime in Ira will gradually lose power as attitudes change among the younger generations. To this inevitability, Iran becomes a greater risk for starting a war of they face the loss of power and a potential internal revolution. There was the 1979 revolution in Iran which put in place the religious government. The previous revolution took place between 1905 to 1911. It is unlikely that the religious government in Iran will be as strong after 2021 and the country is likely to end up with a completely non-religious government by 2051.

Jun 21 2019

Gold & War


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold

Re-Posted Jun 21, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; you are the only person who forecasts gold without bias. How will gold respond to the war rattling with Iran?

PD

ANSWER: They will always paint gold as the a never ending bull market in the face of war. Perhaps us old-time traders learned the hard way – buy the rumor but sell the news. If we look at gold’s performance during the first Gulf War in 1990, it rallied upon the Iraq invasion on August 2nd, pulled back on the 3rd testing $377, and then rallied peaking on a closing basis on August 24th, but it hit $420 in just 7 trading days. When it appeared that the West would invade, gold declined and eventually it made its 19-year low in 1999.

It does not yet appear that we are looking at World War III. However, that may change by 2020/2021. We have to see how this interacts with our numbers. We must always approach this from a plain black and white perspective. Trump does not want to send in troops. The problem has been that the Democrats in bashing Trump have used Russia to the point that 70% of Democrats believe Russia is our moral enemy. They have demonized Russia so from a strategic perspective, Russia must back Iran. There will be no choice. Continued confrontation with China risks restoring the Russia-China bond that Richard Nixon broke.