Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted May 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Been following Martin since 2008 (Gold ride) – he is the only one who has been right AU and AG top 2011. ****Important question for Martin, please How can the fed raise rates with governments owing so much debt please ???? what are the consequences of debt restructured? 100 year treasury real estate Thanks you so much for sharing all your insights
JT
ANSWER: The Federal Reserve is independent. Despite all the nonsense that these pretend analysts attribute everything to the actions of the Fed, if they really knew their history, they would realize that the Fed has often been at war with the White House. You cannot be an objective analyst when you predetermine a conclusion based upon a theory you choose to believe. This is the sad state of analysis these days. People start with the conclusion and then cherry-pick the facts to support what they think should be the outcome. This is what has plagued gold analysis, but the very same process has doomed climate change analysis and the destruction of the world economy.
Unfortunately, when it comes to the Quantity Theory of Money, these analysts take the position of politicians and exonerate themselves of all responsibility for their reckless fiscal spending. They endlessly try to bribe the people to vote for them. I have stated many times, pre-1971, when it was illegal to borrow against an E-Bond, for example, the theory was printing money increased the supply and was inflationary. Thus, borrowing did not increase the money supply and was not inflationary. But when you can post T-Bills as collateral and trade the markets, that theory is no longer valid, so debt is now simply money that pays interest the way it began in 1861. We seem to always return to the starting place, like the game of Monopoly where you must pass Go every trip around the board.
Socialism is the worst form of government; just look at the Democrats. They do not know how to run for office without promising free something or other. It is never about the fate of the world, the nation, or our families. They are promoting war because they assume that the people will not change the government in the middle of a war. They have no problem watching our people die.
The Fed has ZERO control over fiscal spending. Nevertheless, the Fed has been itself brainwashed, and because everyone blames them for inflation, they will be compelled to raise rates or suffer the calls for their overthrow. The increased cost in the deficit will never be blamed on them — only the inflation rate. This is why the central banks have ZERO control over the economy anymore. Soon, people will wake up and realize that this statement is true. When they do, we will get a 1987-style panic.
Here is a chart of the dollar index. The dollar had already begun its decline when they stood up at the Plaza Accord, announcing they wanted the dollar down by 40%. As the dollar began to fall rapidly, other member nations complained. In February 1987, they gathered together to announce that the dollar had fallen too far and enough was enough. When the dollar continued lower, the then G7 lost all credibility, and the markets suddenly realized they were not in control.
This is what we will see once again. This type of inflation was caused by the COVID lockdowns. China may really have shut down Shanghai to push inflation even higher in the West, seeking regime change in Washington, hoping the inflation will lead to a political blood-bath for the Democrats to get the world back to some normalcy. When inflation is set in motion because of a shortage, like crop failures, raising interest rates will not suddenly make it rain.
The Fed will act out its role because it has no other choice. Its rate hike this week is only playing catch-up with the market. Rates are rising because they are supposed to reflect the inflation rates plus a profit. That’s without the Fed trying to manage the economy. Just look at the rates and ignore the pundits. You will see that the Fed is chasing the market, it is not driving the market. Hence, the Fed is being compelled to raise rates not by its own desire to prevent inflation, but to keep pace with the markets themselves.
The idiots will blame the Fed as inflation rises and blame them for not acting. There is no saving grace for the Fed. The system is collapsing and this is in fact what gives Klaus Schwab power, for they know in Europe that they can no longer borrow money to fund socialism. The answer is to default on all debt and to hide that, they need to make it sound like they are doing this for you — who they care so much about.
Hence, this default will be disguised as relieving you of all your debt when it is the governments who are defaulting, and unable to raise interest rates in Europe. This is also the backdrop to the Repo Crisis and why US banks withdrew from making markets because they did not want to take European debt as collateral, forcing the Federal Reserve to step in.
Pelosi’s delegation went to Ukraine and said the US does not want peace and it will not accept the status quo. They want total victory against Russia and they have UNCONSTITUTIONALLY declared war on Russia and they are pretending they can act unilaterally and as long as the Ukrainian people are on the ground and not American troops, then it is not formally a war that only the people can declare under the constitution. This is all a cover for the Great Default because Keynesian Economics has completely failed. The central banks CAN NOT stop this inflation nor do they control the fiscal spending. Governments are now spending whatever they want because they know the Great Default is coming. This is all part of the Great Reset pushed as the solution by the World Economic Forum.
As we move head-first into 2032, we are looking at the total collapse of not just socialism because of the inability of European governments to continue to borrow as the Fed raises rates, and they cannot, but we are also staring into the eyes of the collapse of Republican forms of government on a global scale.
Trade tension between China and Australia has hit a new peak, with Australia now seeking to limit trade with China entirely. Former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said that India will replace China in trade. “For economic reasons, we’re gonna [sic] have to replace China in supply chains and frankly, there is no better substitute for China and so many of their supply chains than India, given India’s very sophisticated manufacturing base,” Abbott stated.
Abbott accused China of “weaponizing trade” and “bribing or bullying other countries around the region.” Australia is now aiming for a $100 billion bilateral trade deal with India. India and Australia entered a free trade agreement in April entitled the “Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement” (ECTA) after over a decade of negotiations. The deal will increase trade between the nations from $27.5 billion in 2021 to $45 billion over the next five years. The agreement also seeks to increase duty-free imports on Indian products and eliminate over 85% of tariffs on Australian goods to India.
China blocked Australian imports during COVID after politicians requested an independent review of the Wuhan virus leak. China later allowed Australian goods to enter the country but increased tariffs significantly. The two nations withdrew from major projects shortly after, such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
China recently shut down its largest port and has been contributing to the supply chain crisis. They have had notoriously difficult trade negotiations with most of their largest trading partners. Although the models indicate China will eventually become the financial capital of the world, the road there will be a long one.
Politicians are using Ukraine as a photo opportunity. Would the most powerful government officials risk traveling there if Kyiv was under constant attack? Would they publicly stroll the streets in Russia’s alleged top target? Third in line to lead the US, 82-year-old Nancy Pelosi, insisted on putting a wall and armed guards around the US capitol, stating she feared for her life. She had no problem flying to what has been described as an active warzone to take pictures with Zelensky and personally deliver him billions of dollars for a war the media states he is winning. What she actually did was commit the United States to a direct war with Russia and the goal is their destruction not to defend Ukraine. They outright said before the world, that there are no peace negotiations, this is a defacto Declaration of War.
Boris Johnson also did not pass on the photo opportunity. The prime minister of the UK openly walked around Kyiv with the Ukrainian leader. Zelensky made sure to wear his military gear for the photos, although Johnson was in a suit. There were no bulletproof vests, and they did not meet in a secret location. In fact, numerous leaders of NATO nations have visited Ukraine since the war began. The presidents of Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, and Estonia all traveled by train to visit the war-torn country. Many others have visited as well and sent top delegates amid an ongoing war.
Everyone clearly knows where Zelensky is located – including the Russians. There were countless reports of Russian special forces attempting to assassinate Zelensky in the “early hours” of the war. Sources claim that was propaganda. Zelensky never went into hiding. He posts videos from his office in Kyiv and has made his location known. Yet, he claims that he and his family will be assassinated by Putin soon. He has successfully secured the public’s opinion as they see him as a brave leader who is willing to risk his life for his country. If Putin wanted to assassinate Zelensky, he would have done so already. Putin does not want a war with NATO and is moving carefully. However, the West wants war and desperately needs war as stage TWO of the Great Reset for the days of Keynesian Economics are coming to an end. The West has been borrowing relentless since World War II with no intention of paying anything back. The ECB lowered interest rates to NEGATIVE in 2014, and now the entire European pension system is bankrupt. They need this war to blame the collapse of government on Putin as well.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 4, 2022 | Sundance
Perhaps in the grand scheme of all things facing us, this action by New Jersey may seem a little silly; however, it’s still nuts.
Comrades, starting today it is illegal in New Jersey to have plastic or paper bags in stores for shoppers. Additionally, restaurants, cafeterias and food trucks are forbidden to serve take-out food in Styrofoam-like products. Also, all retailers must stop selling polystyrene foam products like plates and cups. Drinking straws require a permit for restricted distribution as monitored by the Department of Health.
To ensure legal compliance within the Garden State, officials in New Jersey have established a snitch hotline for citizens to call the Dept of Environmental Police (DEP) and report dissident violators, while the state ministry of citizen compliance have created a “WARN DEP” app to facilitate easier snitching on your neighbors if you spot them using contraband containers.
“The ban will go into effect [May 4th] nearly 18 months after the law was signed by Gov. Phil Murphy.” ARTICLE
We cannot get to environmental justice without citizen participation, comrades.
Report this rule breaker, there’s an app for that!
Posted originally on the conservative house on May 4, 2022 | Sundance
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul questioned DHS Secretary Mayorkas about what constitutes disinformation and what will the DHS Disinformation Bureau do about it? {Direct Rumble Link}
After multiple back and forth dodges by the DHS Secretary, at 06:40 Mayorkas slips a little and gives an example using the COVID vaccination program. After giving the example of a hypothetical claim of the vaccine containing fentanyl, Mayorkas asks “should I sit back and accept that,” meaning do nothing about it.
Right there Mayorkas gives away the intent and purpose of the Ministry of Truth. Identify disinformation, then communicate with the networked partnership of social media companies, and then target whoever made the claim. The government then controls the speech. The government then becomes the arbiter of what is true and/or false. The problem as Rand Paul is drilling down, is that ultimately government will approve speech. WATCH:
There is no such thing as “disinformation.” There is information the government approves of, and information that is averse to the interest of government. That’s the bottom line and the end of this regulatory slippery slope discussion.
Example: Ask the DHS Disinformation Governance Board if a fetus is a baby human?
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 4, 2022
The democrat narrative for 2022 is from the exact same playbook used against the Tea Party in 2011/2012. Weaponizing the J6 committee to frame the construct this year, democrats are back to the playbook of calling their opposition “extremists.”
After resounding MAGA candidates won all the contested primary elections yesterday, Joe Biden takes to the microphones today and says:
…”this MAGA crowd is really the most extreme political organization that’s existed in American history.”
Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” talks about Tucker Carlson responding to yet another baseless hit piece from the New York Times and proves what really motivates their baseless attacks on him.
When Roe v Wade was decided, it was highly questionable both on a constitutional level as well as on a moral basis. The basic religious objection stems from the Ten Commandments – Thou Shalt Not Kill. You had a lot of people arguing that a child is not a child until it is born and thus abortion is not a crime of murder. The reasoning was akin to the distinction of killing people on a wholesale basis which is deranged murder as distinguished by being a soldier who is ordered to kill by your head of state which makes it patriotic. Then you have people carving out exceptions to kill people calling it a Holy War somehow sanctioned by God or the execution of a prisoner sentenced to death. Then there is the argument of self-defense and a police officer who shoots to kill because he thought the guy was reaching for a gun instead of his wallet. There has always been a gray area when it comes to killing someone else.
I have to look at this question from a rule of law perspective and not one of personal preference or based upon a religious belief or lack thereof. Appellant Jane Roe, a pregnant mother who wished to obtain an abortion, sued on behalf of all women similarly situated in an effort to prevent the enforcement of Texas statutes criminalizing all abortions except those performed to save the life of the mother. The other case being overruled is PlannedParenthoodv. Casey, which altered the standard for analyzing restrictions on the right of abortion, crafting the undue burden standard for abortion.
What NEEDS to be stated is that the promoter of abortion was none other than Bill Gates’ father who was the head of Planned Parenthood which promoted abortions. Aside from the scandal about Planned Parenthood selling body parts from abortions, it has long been pointed out that 86% of Planned Parenthood abortion operations have been in minority areas. This has always led to the question was this really about Eugenics.
To sell the idea of abortions like the insurance industry that could not sell Death Insurance so they called it Life Insurance, abortion was marketed as a woman’s right issue avoiding any discussion of the life of the unborn. It was often alleged that this was Eugentics to reduce the black population. So while Whoopi Goldberg is screaming it’s her body and sees everything else as racist, has she actually taken the blue pill when it comes to abortion that was intended to racially impose Eugenics?
Indeed, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsbergbluntly told the truth, when she was for equal rights for women. “Frankly, I had thought that at the time Roe was decided, there was concern about population growth and particularly growth in populations that we don’t want to have too many of.” Ginsberg spoke bluntly in an interview published in the New York Times Magazine which was an article on women in the court. So it was not simply a woman’s rights agenda. That was the cover story to hide the real agenda which has always existed – eugenics and to reduce the population of the minorities. Consequently, there are what girls on our staff call Feminine Nazis for they just have taken the blue pill. Others will lash out at me and say this is a man taking a man’s view or that based on religion. They close their minds to the truth for they do not want to admit that they have been manipulated in their thinking.
SORRY! It’s time to take the Red Pill. Today, they are still very much more concerned about population growth but Bill Gates has carried on his father’s concerns about the population growth of the wrong kind of people. Bill Gates has experimented with implanting chips to turn off and on a woman’s ability to even have children. He devotes his money to carry out his father’s alleged prejudice.
People like Whoopi have taken the blue pill and spit out the very argument that Gates has pushed to reduce the population using women’s rights. Gates is tormented at night worrying about all the black babies being born in Africa where he claims the population will double by 2050. Gates has moved to provide free condoms in Africa. Gates was offering rewards for those to create a condom that men would use. Gates selected 11 contenders. In the USA, this effort to depopulate the world has been the marketing of abortion as a woman’s right because it’s her body. Can you also throw your baby out the window because it cries using the same theory it’s your baby? Hence, the debate conjures up religion and those in support of abortion seem to argue there is no God so just F–K off!
The question of abortion from ancient times varied. Under the Persian Empire, it was a criminal act. The Hippocratic Oath from Greece varied somewhat according to the particular translation. Nevertheless, it was unanimously clear:
“I will give no deadly medicine to anyone if asked, nor suggest any such counsel; and in like manner I will not give to a woman a pessary to produce abortion,” or “I will neither give a deadly drug to anybody if asked for it, nor will I make a suggestion to this effect. Similarly, I will not give to a woman an abortive remedy.”
Abortion was practiced predominantly among the poor and slave class in Roman times. Abortion was considered amoral lacking any law forbidding it. Tertullian, the early Christian apologist, described how doctors of the time performed abortions using instruments that would effectively chop up a child in the womb dissecting it. A woman could be prosecuted for having an abortion if she failed to tell the father since the right of an heir was critical in property inheritance.
When Roe v Wade was announced, there was deep concern over the logic of the decision. It was based on an earlier decision Griswald v Connecticut which established the Right to Privacy. That was a law that married people would not use birth control. How do you enforce such a law? Does a police officer have to inspect you before having sex? It was held that such a law could not be enforced and there was the right to privacy. Therefore, Roe v Wade has rooted in that principle aside from if you agree or disagree with the subject of abortion. It is indeed inconsistent as a matter of law that you can mandate vaccines but uphold Roe v Wade and the Right to Privacy. It is entirely two different things to carry out an abortion by a doctor on the theory that the woman has a Right to Privacy.
Clearly, in this era of mandatory vaccines, you are fired if you refuse and cannot travel without one which is in direct opposition to Roe v Wade. The two are completely inconsistent. Honestly, this is becoming so messed up that it is hard to keep track of all the twists and turns. Logic has completely vanished today. I would argue if the court approves the vaccine mandate to protect society then there can be no Right to Privacy concerning your body. I previously argued that in light of Roe v Wade, then vaccine mandates would be also unconstitutional. The court appears to overrule this decision yet leave the Griswold Right to Privacy intact.
This leaked decision was clearly by someone trying to create a controversy to force the Supreme Court to uphold Roe v Wade. Ironically, it will now force the Supreme Court to maintain that position. The draft reads:
Constitution makes no reference to abortion, and no such right is implicitly protected by any constitutional provision, including the one on which the defenders of Roe and Casey now chiefly rely—the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. That provision has been held to guarantee some rights that are not mentioned in the Constitution, but any such right must be “deeply rooted in this Nation’s his- tory and tradition” and “implicit in the concept of ordered liberty.” Washington v. Glucksberg, 521 U. S. 702, 721 (1997) (internal quotation marks omitted)
Roe v Wade being overturned would simply remove the Constitutional Right to kill your unborn child. This will not prohibit abortions, but it will send it to the states allowing them to pass their own legislation. Some states have adopted legislation to govern the “right to die” which is the idea that a person has the right to end their life or be voluntarily euthanized. Eight states have enacted that legislation.
In Texas, once a heartbeat is detected, abortions would be illegal. In Florida, Governor DeSantis’ law, restricts abortion after 15 weeks – when babies are scientifically proven to be able to smile, yawn, feel pain and respond to their mother’s voice.
One email that came in asked:
“if this is about states’ rights then it seems that this upends voting or gay marriage or everything built on the 14th amendment. Is this what splits hastens the fall of the US and perhaps causes it to split as most of the country appears to want to overturn women’s right to their own body and not consequence to the sperm source or circumstances.
Rape is again legal it seems in this instance”
Legally, gay rights and the rape of a woman or an abortion to save the life of a woman are not impacted by overruling Roe v Wade. From a legal perspective, Roe v Wade is bad law. It is inconsistent and in fact when you have mandatory vaccines and mandatory masks and quarantines, then clearly there is no such thing as a Right of Privacy. So for this reason as a matter of law, Roe v Wade should be overruled.
That does NOT mean that all abortions would be outlawed. Let the states legislate the question as they do for just about everything else. While the United States may be one country overall, the cultural differences between California and the Midwest and South are completely different. If someone wants to die because of a disease, they can go to Oregon. If someone wants to have a totally unrestricted abortion, go to California. It is time that there should be fewer mandates from Washington and more states’ rights. We also have the right to live in a culture that meets our personal beliefs. What if those in Washington suddenly approved ancient law and stoned to death those who committed adultery? Would it be even moral to force the entire country to comply with that law even if it offends your personal religion?
What will break up the country is the attempt by either side to impose their view as mandatory upon the whole nation. There are cultural differences throughout the United States. Even people have sent in emails saying that vaccines and who you voted for are just two common issues that arise today in dating. This is reflecting the deep divide and if we DO NOT respect these differences, then the only resolution will be civil war. The very term, “United States”, is not a justification to impose one political belief upon the whole. This is what is wrong with socialism under the Biden Administration punishing some for the benefit of others.
Slavery was an issue that one human being cannot own another. There are those who equate abortion to that same logic – a mother has no right to terminate a child’s life for convenience. Hence Pro-Life argues it is the same principle to be against abortion as it is to be against slavery. These are philosophical questions that are also rooted in culture just as the Persians regarded it to be a crime if a woman had an abortion and the Romans were indifferent.
This is why States’ Rights are critical and federalism must be curtailed to save the United States. You can get grits in the south just as you can get Boston Cream Pie or clam chowder in Boston. There are cultural differences and we better respect that or there is no reason to be part of a UNION. If California allows wholesale abortions and Texas does not, then both must respect the culture of the other and let God sort things out.
Personally, my first son died shortly after birth. To this day, I will never forget that. So while personally, I would never agree to an abortion, my opinion is not sufficient grounds to force others to comply with my beliefs. This is a State’s Right Issue and it is time we begin to respect the fact that there was never to be a dictatorship of the majority over the minority creating an eternal battle to force the opposition to live by their rules. That is the recipe for the decline and fall of every empire, nation, or city-state.
Every facet of life has become more expensive. Regardless of your net worth, chances are you are feeling the effects of inflation. According to a new ABC News poll, 94% of Americans stated they are “concerned” or “upset” about inflation. They likely would have chose other descriptors if available. Around half said they were “concerned but not upset,” as if this was not an entirely preventable situation.
They then went on to ask respondents about their views on Biden, and 52% said they disapproved. Only 21% “strongly approve” of Biden’s work – why?
Well, 51% who approved support the endless COVID restrictions. This is the group that voted for Biden out of their hatred for Trump and will likely vote again out of fear. Regardless of party affiliation, most Americans disagreed with Biden on absolutely every other issue. Around 57% see that his administration is hurting the US economy, and 68% now understand that Biden has not done enough to control inflation. As much as they would like the term “Putin’s price hike” to stick, most of us know the truth.
Half of Americans stated they trust the Republicans to tackle key issues, compared to 36% who still trust the Democrats. Only 31% believe the Democrats can handle inflation, while 50% have hope in the Republicans. Americans seem to favor the Republicans on every issue, such as inflation, immigration, crime, and the war in Ukraine. There are many indicators for what to expect during the 2022 US midterm elections.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America