Category Economic Collapse

Dec 14 2022

The Central Bank Dilemma


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Dec 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrongpread the love

The Central Bank Dilemma has become a major crisis in and of itself. I have been warning these past years that the ONLY tool a central bank has is manipulating the interest rates. Quantitative Easing was primarily to influence long-term rates indirectly since the Fed can only set short-term rates. During the past nine months, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has raised interest rates at the fastest pace of any Federal Reserve chair since the 1980s. While some complain that this has triggered a stock market rout, and caused the housing market to come to a standstill, others argue that he has increased the fears of an imminent recession.

That was the domestic part. The Fed’s raising of interest rates has impacted the emerging markets including contributing to the chaos in the financial markets in China since many banks and provinces borrowed in dollars to save interest rates – or so they thought. It has forced the European Central Bank to raise interest rates and the net result was to unleash a crisis in long-term debt where life companies and pension funds cannot continue to buy the long-term with rates rising and bonds declining the day after you just bought a traunch.

Janet Yellen, who wants to hunt down everyone who sold a used bike on eBay for $600, understands the crisis we have erupting in debt because of rising interest rates and investors are afraid of the long end. Her proposal to buy in the long-term and swap it for the short-term recognizes the fact that we have a major debt crisis unfolding and she has come up with another scheme to keep kicking the can down the road.

Consequently, with inflation hitting 40-year highs, the warning signs are there that the central banks cannot do anything to address the economic crisis. Hence, initially, Fed officials were unanimous that rates needed to rise aggressively. Now, however, there are cracks in that view. These cracks will become fissures over how this type of inflation is NOT speculative but shortages set in motion by COVID and then accelerated by this drive for war with Russia and the insane sanctions they imposed on even private citizens.

While some expect inflation to cool steadily next year and want to stop raising rates soon, the problem is that inflation driven by shortages will not subside with a reduction in demand. Even real estate replacement costs have risen despite the fact that the market has started to pause. The cost to build a home in many areas is already higher than existing homes, which tends to create a floor before prices. Others worry inflation won’t ease enough next year in the face of a war that is escalating, and they defer to the old standard of raising interest rates to temper inflation.

That leaves Chairman Powell struggling in the eternal seas of politics lost in the middle as the arguments get louder on both sides. Powell will be challenged trying to chart a course through war, stagflations, and complete fiscal mismanagement by our politicians. The next stage of interest-rate policy presents very difficult questions concerning how high to raise rates from here, and how long to hold them at that level in this Pyhric War against Inflation.

Dec 12 2022

FBI Reveals Seth Rich Computer Showed He May Have been The DNC Leaker


Armstrong Economics Blog/Conspiracy Re-Posted Dec 12, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The entire story about the murder of Seth Rich, the DNC staffer who the “conspiracy theories” claimed that he was the one leaking DNC documents to Wikileaks. The mainstream media called that a conspiracy theory for the actual source was the hacking by the Russians. He was just gunned down and the police instead claimed he had been the victim of an attempted robbery that just went wrong. His parents were out to sue anyone who dared to claim their son was the leader of those documents. Of course, the passing of time always brings out the truth. The entire investigation into RussiaGate has shown that it was created by Hillary and promoted as the real story, which we now know was all fiction and in itself its own conspiracy theory that the mainstream press preferred to spread. Of course, if the mainstream press spread the story, then conspiracy theory is magically transformed into fact.

Seth Rich’s computer, in the possession of the FBI, showed the DNC staffer had relayed DNC documents to WikiLeaks. There never was any Russian interference by hacking the DNC computers for the 2016 election. Of course, that leak, Hillary maintained, cost her the election. Here we have the never-ending conspiracy theories of all the people who crossed Hillary were somehow dead. Seth Rich would neatly fit into that list. I for one as a parent, would not slander my son’s name, but perhaps look deeper and if he was the leaker, then the motive to have him killed would not be a fake robbery.

Vincent Walker Foster Jr. (1945–1993) was an American attorney who served as the Deputy White House Counsel and was under subpoena to testify. The popular fake story was that he was depressed and went to a park to commit suicide. I was told by sources in Congress that he was not killed in the park for (1) there was a piece of his head that was missing, and (2) they brought his car over 30 minutes later when they realized his car was back at the White House.

Instead of Seth’s parents trying to prevent anyone from suggesting their son was the leaker, perhaps they should consider that he was perhaps a patriot and try to expose what made him do that on behalf of his country. Wikipedia is a propaganda machine for the government. Even in college, Wikipedia is not a valid source for reference. The government directs what it is to say on anything that impacts their political agendas.

Dec 8 2022

Yellen Direct IRS to Audit Everyone for $600 Transactions Anyway


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Dec 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I really do have to wonder if my dog is smarter than most Americans who seem to have just lost their minds. My dog makes connections, anticipates what I will do, and studies my habits to predict and respond. I never knew a dog was really smart. She has learned numerous words and I have had to even spell certain words for she will respond if she hears the word. Dogs are indeed far more intelligent than I ever expected. Various studies show a dog is typically as intelligent as a two-year-old human. I can point in the sky at an airplane and she looks up. Not even a chimpanzee does that, or apparently most Americans. If you point to evidence they will not look.

The majority of Americans just listen to the propaganda, never questions anything, and assume the government is always telling them the truth because they care. Janet Yellen tried to get Congress to pass a formal act that banks and everyone had to report on Americans for every $600 transaction. Congress refused and her story was they were after the evil super-rich. The problem, the rich really are not selling stuff on eBay, using cash apps for side deals. That is the realm of the young and lower income.

So after the Biden Administration lost that battle, they simply told the IRS to do it on their own. Any transaction online over $600 is not subject to audit and you will find out the real reason they hired 87,000 armed IRS agents. You certainly do not need 87,000 IRS Agents to hunt down the 735 billionaires in the United States. They outright lie to your face, and many cheer.

People will NEVER wake up it seems. I have known politicians who actually believe that EVERYTHING belongs to the state, they decide on how much you are allowed to keep. They must have sipped history class for virtually EVERY Revolution in history was inspired by taxes. Even the famous line from Shakespeare “the first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers” actually refers to the king’s prosecutors for private people had not right to a lawyer. It was all about a revolution and the “lawyers” were confiscating people’s houses for their inability to pay taxes.

The American Revolution was also sparked by taxation. Remember the French Revolution and the slogan they attributed to the King’s wife – let them eat cake was also all about taxes and oppression

Dec 6 2022

$80 Trillion Derivatives Market


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Dec 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has warned in its latest quarterly report that there is $80 trillion dollar in off-balance sheet dollar debt in the form of FX swaps. This has involved pension funds and other ‘non-bank’ financial firms.

What they do not explain is that each “debt” has a counterparty that has an “asset” and in theory, that works out to net zero. But there is counter-party risk that is not discussed. This doesn’t address the liquidity issue either. Still, it is not entirely a black hole as they seem to lead some to proclaim. What is also left unexplained or addressed is the question of if they are netting across all transactions. Many of the players in this market have offsetting positions. It is one thing to scream OMG the size of the stock market is too big, and another to yell fire in a crowded theater.

This $80 trill is effectively the derivatives market. It is what it is. Marking everything to market all the time isn’t a great answer either for there can be imbalances for a day or two in the middle of chaos. What is clear is that the BIS is raising concerns, in which it also said this year’s market upheaval took place without any major issues.

On the other hand, the BIS has been pushing central banks to raise rates to fight inflation which will only accelerate the crisis since it is shortage based. This is no different from the ’70s when there was an external price shock from OPEC,. Raising interest rates did nothing to prevent inflation, instead, it resulted in a strong dollar, the collapse of the pound to $1.03 in 1985, and the US national debt more than doubled on interest expenditures.

Nonetheless, the BIS has been quieter on the inflation front this time around. Just maybe, they are starting to realize that the old theories no longer work. The September UK government bond market turmoil was created by raising interest rates and the losses on holding long-term debt in the face of rising interest rates have been just the tip of the iceberg.

The FX swap markets have become huge. Our clients are well into the trillions these days whereas twenty years ago we had less than 5 clients at the $1 trillion threshold.

Nonetheless, the complexity of the cross-positions is the real risk. One side can blow out because of the chaos these braindead politicians are creating with this war against Russia.

Dec 5 2022

Banks


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Dec 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Thank you for all you do. Your input has guided me well.
I suspect my Bank is in deep trouble. _____ bank in ____ CA.
They specialize in small business. First red flag was freezing my account for no reason. I then bounced a check because my account was frozen. They could not give me a reason for freezing my account. Then they offered me, according to them, a great investment deal, that was the second red flag. Then I was contacted by a relationship manger. This was the third red flag.

Will be closing all my accounts with ______ next week.

MC

REPLY: There are clearly problems emerging since interest rates have risen and  many banks were not in a position to take the losses on long-term investments.

Always keep some cash. A word to the wise should be sufficient