Fearing a Complete Shutdown from Russia, Europe Scraps Plans to Cap Russian Gas Prices


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 | Sundance 

War is an outcome of ideology and economics, and the latter is perhaps the most powerful weapon.  As the harsh reality of Europe’s insufferable decades-long efforts to embrace the virtues of climate change begin to settle in, the reasonable adults in the conversation are able to see how their weakness is being exploited by their adversary.

On Sept 7, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen held a press conference in Brussels, announcing five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine.” {Go Deep}

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it very clear that any further efforts to weaken his economy, via western sanctions and interventionist efforts against his economy, would be met with retaliation in the form of cutting off all oil and gas supplies to Europe.  It appears the Europeans now understand the nature of their vulnerability.

(Via Reuters) – The EU has dropped plans to cap the price it pays for Russian gas.

Energy ministers from the bloc met Friday (September 9) in Brussels. They scrapped plans for the cap after the idea failed to win broad support.

Member states in central and eastern Europe who still get gas from Russia feared retaliation by Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin had said he would cut off supplies altogether if a cap was imposed.

However, ministers did agree to claw back revenues from some power producers and will use the money to curb consumer bills. European energy prices are typically set by gas plants. That leaves generators using nuclear, wind or coal raking in revenue, as their running costs haven’t risen as much or at all.

On Friday, some EU nations also argued in favor of a general cap on all gas imports. However, European energy commissioner Kadri Simson said any such move would be risky:

“The general price cap, including LNG imports, could present a security of supply challenge, because the LNG market is a global market. We are not among the three biggest LNG-importing regions or countries, and there is very strong competition in the LNG market and right now it is very important that we can replace the decreasing Russian volumes with alternative suppliers.”

The EU windfall plan will now be fleshed out in the coming days, with another meeting of energy ministers seen possible later in the month. (read more)

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen previously announced five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine. And now our work is paying off. At the start of the war, gas from Russian pipelines accounted for 40% of all imported gas. Today it has dropped to only 9% of our gas imports. These are tough times. But I am convinced that Europeans have the economic strength, the political will and the unity to maintain the upper hand,” she said.  The United States and Norway are the primary suppliers of gas to the EU to fill the void.

Commissar von der Leyden’s five initiatives included:

(1) Conservation of electricity through forced and mandated cuts in electricity use.  The amount of the cut has yet to be determined but reducing demand through forced curtailment of electricity use is the first approach.  [Insert California as an example here in the United States.]

(2) A cap on the profit generated by energy suppliers who use renewable energy like wind and solar.  The renewable industry has lower costs, yet they are profiting from the top line increase in delivered electricity.  The EU commissar is proposing to confiscate the profits of Green Energy suppliers, direct the funds to the member states and then use those funds to subsidize the energy costs of poorer EU citizens.

(3) A cap on the profits generated by traditional fossil fuel energy suppliers (oil, coal, nuclear, gas electricity generation), and the diversion of those profits following the same formula as above.

(4) Banking support and financial liquidity for smaller regional energy providers who are having short term financial issues as they must pay massive amounts of money for the raw material needed to generate electricity.  Essentially, the cost of coal, oil and LNG has skyrocketed, and there is a lag between the time they energy company must pay for the fuel source and the time the customer pays the electricity bill.   The inbound fuel costs (new) are so extreme the inbound payments for prior electricity (old) are not covering the cost of the new supplier purchase.

(5) A price cap on Russian natural gas.  To accompany the increased import of Norwegian and U.S. gas.  This sounds like a bizarro effort to manipulate the market which could backfire.  If Russian gas is cheaper than EU market gas, the smart energy providers will purchase the Russian gas.

Number five is now scrapped.

Not a single word about increasing the supply of any traditional energy resource.  These EU ideologues -bureaucrats within a system that is not representative of democracy- are so committed to the cult of climate change and renewable energy, they are willing to destroy the EU economy in order to lower demand to the level of their windmills and solar farms.  However, it looks like alternate, perhaps even sensible people within the EU, are starting to realize the ‘climate change’ ideologues are the real and present danger.

Deutsche Bank CEO Says a Recession is Inevitable


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany Re-Posted Sep 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Yet another head of the financial system is coming out and warning that a recession is inevitable. Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing echoed the words of BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey and blamed the coming recession on the war in Ukraine. “We will no longer be able to avert a recession in Germany. Yet we believe that our economy is resilient enough to cope well with this recession — provided the central banks act quickly and decisively now,” Sewing said.

Going a step further, Sewing blamed China along with Russia. “When it comes to dependencies, we also have to face the awkward question of how to deal with China. Its increasing isolation and growing tensions, especially between China and the United States, pose a considerable risk for Germany,” he warned. Around 12% of German imports and 8% of exports come and go from China. Sewing would like to see a declining dependency on China rather than strengthening their relationship.

Neither China nor Russia are to blame for Germany’s situation. Russia was simply a diversion to draw attention away from the collapse of the European economy. Negative interest rates beginning in 2014 wiped out pension funds and proved that the central bank was not thinking long-term. COVID restrictions killed the supply chain, and Germany’s insistance in backing Ukraine eliminated what could have been a lucrative pipeline. Had the pipeline gone through, Europe would not have an energy crisis! Ever since COVID, we have witnessed a rising trend of civil unrest. Politicians have been working hard to create war with Russia deliberately, all cloaked in their real objective of controlling the planet.

When the energy crisis is unavoidable for the average person and the standard of living declines, the politicians will point to Russia and China. The decline began long before Russia lined the border of Ukraine, and China is demonized for simply existing. They would never blame their fiscal mismanagement or detrimental policies for the undoable damage they have created. If Germany falls, all of Europe will follow.

Arizona Governor Candidate Kari Lake Responds to a Question About Being Donald Trump’s Running Mate


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 8, 2022 

Following an Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry 2022 Gubernatorial Candidate Forum, where GOP candidate Kari Lake and Democrat Marxist Katie Hobbs, answered Arizonans’ questions, only one candidate was willing to talk to the media after the event and take direct questions.

MAGA Republican Kari Lake is strong, formidable and skilled in her approach toward the media.  Lake’s use of the atomic sledgehammer of truth is almost unparalleled.  In this brief soundbite she is questioned about becoming President Donald Trump’s 2024 running mate.  Here is how she responded. WATCH:

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The video of the full candidate forum is below.

Ukrainian Parliament Lines Pockets with Western Aid


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Sep 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The pro-war People’s Deputies of Ukraine Party are using Western funding to line their pockets. It has been reported that the average paycheck went from 28,800 to 49,600 hryvnia, and taxpayers in other countries will pay for their raises.

This news came out shortly after CBS attempted to release a documentary that claimed weapon shipments from the US were frequently missing. CBS was forced to redact parts of the documentary, “Arming Ukraine,” after Ukraine’s government threatened them. The first report stated that 70% of the weapon purchases had gone missing, while another piece said only 30% of aid had arrived. “Since that time, Ohman says delivery has improved,” CBS backtracked. “We are updating our documentary to reflect this new information and air at a later date.”

“The weapons are stolen, the humanitarian aid is stolen, and we have no idea where the billions sent to this country have gone,” an anonymous veteran originally told reporters. He went on to claim that soldiers are receiving less pay while those at the top are lining their pockets. Zelensky continually claims that his country needs endless funds for the endless war. Where is this money going? Since WE are paying for the war, we deserve to know the truth.

Liz Truss Becomes PM – Dark Day for Britain


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN Re-Posted Sep 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Liz Truss has been made Prime Minister of Britain. This was expected, but also the darkest day possible for Britain. Previously, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace had backed Liz Truss’ view that Russian forces must be pushed out of “the whole of Ukraine” – and suggested this should include Crimea. Even the Guardian at the time had accused Liz Truss’ position was “recklessly inflaming Ukraine’s war to serve her own ambition.” Meanwhile, in Russia, this was playing out on TV endorsing World War III.

Everything that can possibly point to war is unfolding before our eyes. There are no peacemakers left in the world. Every leader appears to be pushing for war because the monetary system is cracking. Those who think that Russia starting its own gold market will eliminate the manipulations in London do not understand what is taking place. This is the dividing of the world economy that simply follows removing Russia from SWIFT and joining with China to make CIPS the leading global platform for international commerce. This is not about gold prices in Russia v London. This is about the end of GLOBALIZATION and the world economy so carefully constructed post-WWII.

The leaders in the West have been borrowing year after year with no intention of ever paying anything back The lowering of rates to negative in Europe in 2014 undermined the pension funds in Europe as they are effectively insolvent in most cases if they stuck to Euro debt. The Scandinavian funds are outside the Euro and while some struggled to pretend to be “green” they did their best to limit those losses.

When we look at British Politics, it appears that there will be a big shift in 2025. Look off to 2031. That is where the computer is picking up a Panic Cycle, which is corresponding to 2032. As I have warned, the risk of international war appears to be unfolding post-2024. And as far as that inflation goes, it looks like all the sanctions on Russia have backfired. Yet no Western politician will dare tell the truth. And they are now going after farmers? We are staring at serious civil unrest rising globally next year for these brain-dead WOKE politicians who are destroying our way of life.

British News Broadcaster ITV Creates Gameshow for Desperate Viewers to Win Chance to Have Energy Bills Paid


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 5, 2022 

Yes, it’s like something out of a dystopian ‘hunger games’ movie, except it is unfortunately real life.  ITV News in Great Britain is running a wheel-of-fortune type marketing campaign where desperate viewers can call in for an opportunity to spin the wheel and win having their energy bills paid.

Comrades, it is not a spoof, this actually took place today and it looks like it will continue due to popular demand.  UK citizens are facing astronomical increases in energy bills as a result of the EU green climate change agenda in combination with Russia halting the export of natural gas.  The price of natural gas increased 30% today alone as Russia cuts off supplies completely.  Europe is on the brink of the worst economic recession in history.

ITV steps in with a promotional effort that shows just how bizarre this Build Back Better future has become.  Perhaps next week viewers might be able to call in for a chance at winning extra food rations, chocolates or even gasoline.  Here’s a video to show what is happening.  WATCH:

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Good luck comrade citizens, you too could be a winner on the wheel of survival.  It’s all in good fun comrade. Smiles everyone, smiles.

UNREST BEGINS – Massive EU Protests Spiral Out Of Ukraine Crisis


The Dive With Jackson Hinkle Published originally on Rumple on September 4, 2022 

It begins first in the EU then America and then the world beware of the next three years

New Interview: 2023 Will Be A Year Of Chaos and Big Challenges for the US


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Sep 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Watch the latest interview above or click here.

I Am a MAGA Republican, and Donald Trump is My Weapon


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 5, 2022 | sundance

At a national level there is a unique policy priority that almost every politician, on both sides, will avoid discussing.  At a national level a single policy priority determines all other national policy issues.  That policy is the national economic policy.

The national economic policy of a presidential candidate determines all other national policies that flow from the presidential candidate.  The national economic policy impacts the obvious policies like energy and trade, and also determines the lesser obvious policies like regulation and even foreign policy.

It is specifically because a candidate’s national economic outlook impacts all other issues, that most national politicians never talk about it.

It would be impossible to support Main Street USA, a popular talking point, and still support the Paris climate treaty, the transpacific trade partnership (TPP) or the transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP).

To avoid the contradictions most democrat and republican politicians avoid discussing their national economic policy; it is an unspoken rule within the billionaire club and donor game; an economic code of omerta amid most political candidates.

President Trump broke the rule, and even went so far as to campaign on an America-First economic policy agenda.  That core outlook forms the Make America Great Again foundation.  MAGA is based on a national economic policy outlook that determines every other national policy as carried by President Trump.

While most Americans may not be able to articulate how the national economic policy impacts them, almost every American feels the consequences through gasoline prices, energy prices, employment, wage rates and the expenses within their everyday lives.  To try and hide this reality, often media and economic analysts will say the U.S. President has no control over gasoline prices; however, this is unequivocally false.

Yes, it is true that oil prices are determined by the global market for the product, the supply and the demand.  However, the energy policy of the president determines the domestic investment in natural resource development and extraction by oil companies.  The regulatory policy determines the expansion, or lack therein, of oil and gasoline refinery capacity.  So yes, it is ultimately the U.S President who determines gasoline prices indirectly through energy and regulatory policy.

If this were not the case, then gasoline would cost nearly the same in almost every nation. It doesn’t.  Right now, gasoline in Mexico is almost $1 less than gasoline in the United States, specifically because Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador is not trying to reduce oil resource investment, development and/or gasoline refinery capacity.

President Trump was the first presidential candidate who campaigned on a domestic national economic policy.  He even went one step further and stated the T-word, tariffs.  Yes, the commerce department holds tools to support a national economic policy.  This tool is another aspect to national economics that most politicians avoid discussing because the toolbox is counter to the interests of Wall Street, multinational corporations and hedge fund managers.

For a reference point you might remember the apoplectic fits from financial and economic punditry to President Trump’s 2017 and 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs.

Economic security is determined by national economic policy.  National security is also an outcome of national economic policy.  Again, President Trump was also the first modern president to put that outlook to work when he said, “economic security is national security,” and then began constructing foreign policy agenda using the cornerstone of national economic policy.  The result was quite remarkable and led to what eventually became the Trump Doctrine.

It was inherently the US national economic policy that underpinned President Trump challenging NATO to meet their financial obligations.  It was national economic policy that drove trade policy and created the north American USMCA trade agreement.  It was national economic policy that led to countervailing duties on Chinese and European imports.  Which had the remarkable effect of actually lowering prices inside the United States.

We began importing deflation through lower priced goods as the value of the dollar increased and China/EU central banks devalued their currency to avoid the impact of tariffs.  Asia and the EU also subsidized their export manufacturing with incentives in order to lower costs as an offset to the tariffs, while simultaneously Asian and Eurpoean companies began investing in production facilities inside the U.S. as a long-term approach to keeping access to the U.S. market. To put it succinctly, this was MAGAnomics at work.

U.S. wages increased, U.S. job growth increased, U.S. energy prices dropped with increased energy development and a massive cut in regulations, and that in turn lowered the cost of domestic goods.  Suddenly we were importing goods at lower prices and generating goods internally at lower prices.  More MAGAnomic outcomes, which, not coincidentally, was the exact opposite of all Wall Street claims and predictions.

Making America Great Again, was an outcome of national economic policy.  At its core, MAGA is a national economic dynamic within a political movement that is represented by President Donald J Trump.

It is critical to understand, the MAGA economic policy is essentially a national policy completely, and uniquely, under the control of the office of the President.  The impact to the lives of Americans is a direct outcome from national economic policy.  If a president wants and independently wealthy country, he/she applies a very specific outlook to all other policy areas including energy, regulation and foreign policy.

It is also true that opposition to President Donald Trump is uniquely connected to the America-First economic agenda.  Multimillion-dollar lobbyist firms like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable, along with dozens of economically established SuperPAC’s funded by Wall Street and multinational corporations, are vehemently opposed to the America-First economic agenda.

All of the national politicians and political candidates taking money from these aforementioned groups necessarily bind themselves to a position that stands against the America-First economic agenda.  In essence, take money from the multinationals and you cannot deliver on MAGA economic issues around banking, trade, finance etc.  And that’s exactly where we run into the problem.

Because MAGA national economic priorities conflict with the multinational corporations, hedge funds and Wall Street donor class, all of the politicians who accept the influence checks from these self-interested groups cannot run on, or deliver on, a MAGA national economic agenda.

At a local, county and state level you have direct impact on the political policy agenda in your community.  Who you elect to the city council. school board, state house and senate as well as governor’s office has an impact on those local and state priorities.  However, national economic policy, national energy and trade policy and national foreign policy are not under your control.

As a result, the same skillset, or policy outlook, that makes a governor a successful state politician doesn’t carry into a federal office, [see the example of Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker].  Yes, there are some executive and administration skills that carry over; however, on the bigger issue of steering the national policy agenda, almost every candidate for office comes with the baggage of having accepted donor contributions from a class of people who are paying for economic policy influence.

MAGA cannot be purchased.  It is a political outlook that seeks only to enhance the best interests of the American people, regardless of consequence for the multinationals or foreign beneficiaries of globalist U.S. economic policy.  Unfortunately, as a result, all of the beneficiaries are aligned to make sure the MAGA economic policy outlook is extinguished.  There are literally trillions at stake.  This reality underpins the opposition to Donald Trump.

When you understand why the national economic outlook of the President is so important, you can also understand why every political candidate is told not to discuss it by the handlers and campaign managers who are essentially selling their candidate to a millionaire and billionaire donor class who do not want an America-First economic policy agenda.

There is no easy solution for this problem, and ironically this core economic issue is where you find supporters of both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump in alignment.

Where the Sanders and Trump camps split is on the solution.  Team Sanders wants the government to play the role of economic referee (regulation), while Team Trump wants the government to change the rules of the economic game (tariffs etc).

Before Donald Trump entered politics there was no home for people voting on the issue of a national economic agenda. Both Democrat and Republican candidates had essentially the same worldview on national economic policy because they are all getting money from the same multinational corporate trough.  However, President Trump changed that dynamic by presenting an alternative national economic policy called America-First.

MAGAnomics is the core of the great MAGA republican coalition, a working-class coalition that cuts through all other distinctions and divisions. This reality creates a problem for the DC professional political class and the corporate media.

Because MAGAnomics is the fundamentally binding principle there is no way to fracture the Trump supporter coalition.

I am a “MAGA republican” by default of my wanting a national economic agenda that looks out for the economic interests of American’s first.

Donald Trump is the irreplaceable Great MAGA King because Donald Trump is the only one who holds that same outlook.

President Trump Thanks the Patriotic MAGA Republicans of Pennsylvania, Incredible Images and Videos


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 4, 2022 | sundance

Writing a brief set of posts on Truth Social, President Donald Trump thanks the people of Pennsylvania who united last evening, boldly and proudly to share the spirit of what Makes America Great.

“It’s impossible to explain how great the people last night were in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. The level of love they have for our Country is both unbelievable and highly impressive—it is more than anyone would ever know. If the Radical Left Lunatics that work so hard to destroy our Country could just get a little bit of the love, energy, enthusiasm, spirit, and patriotism that we witnessed last night, our Country would go to the top of every list like a rocket ship.”

“Thank you to everyone who attended the Rally last night. It was a two-hour speech, and the only disappointment was that they were screaming, “Please, please, go longer.” They love our Country, and I love them!”  ~ Donald J Trump

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Never has one person withstood more attacks, more political slings and arrows, on behalf of the American people.  No republican politician in our lifetime has assembled such a diverse coalition of middle-America while maintaining such determination to deliver for them.  This is MAGA, and Donald John Trump is the leader.

Steadfast.

More below

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