Posted originally on Oct 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The US government shut down once again as our public servants refused to work in a partisan fashion. Over 2.1 million civilian federal employees will be affected, with 750,000 furloughed without pay. Naturally, Congress will still receive a paycheck and their lobbying checks. The duration of the shutdown is unknown, but estimates state the bickering could cost the US economy up to $2 billion per week.
Non-essential offices, websites, and services are unavailable. National parks and museums are closed to visitors. Passport processing will be delayed. The daily cost of compensating the furloughed workers is $400 million. Military members may face delayed pay, while contractors face layoffs.
Most concerning is the data blackout—the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be unable to release its September non-farm payroll report slated for October 4. Data regarding the consumer price index and producer price index will be delayed. Retail sales, housing starts, every piece of data compiled by the federal government will be delayed and amplify uncertainty. The key information the Federal Reserve and investors rely on will be unavailable, and if the shutdown carries on for more than two weeks, there will be a massive spike in volatility and a potential delay in rate cuts. The Fed will be forced to rely on private estimates like the ADP jobs report that are less reliable.
The Democrats insist on expanding COVID-era funding for Obamacare, and insist the GOP reverse the decision to cut the Medicaid budget. Neither side is willing to compromise. Leaders are begging Congress to simply stay in Washington until a decision is reached.
“There isn’t any substantive reason why there ought to be a government shutdown. This is something that has been done routinely, as I said, 13 different times when the Democrats had the majority. But we are not going to be held hostage for over $1 trillion in new spending on a continuing resolution,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said ahead of the vote.
The Medicaid cuts alone are expected to save the government $840 billion over the next decade. Cutting the premium tax credit extension could save $350 billion over the same period, and work and eligibility restrictions could save another $344 billion. Additional recessions and funding cuts to government agencies are expected to save up to $9 billion in 2025 alone.
Non-citizens without access to other coverage DO benefit from these extensions. US taxpayers have spent billions on providing health coverage to migrants. Those earning between 100% to 400% of the federal poverty level will also benefit, as will anyone earning 400% above the threshold if their premiums exceed 8.5%.
“It is unclear how long Democrats will maintain their untenable posture, making the duration of the shutdown difficult to predict,” Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought penned in a memo. “Regardless, employees should report to work for their next regularly scheduled tour of duty to undertake orderly shutdown activities.”
“We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible, that are bad for them and irreversible by them, like cutting vast numbers of people out, cutting things that they like, cutting programs that they like,” President Trump warned.
Trump could possibly lay off more federal employees in non-essential roles, and a hiring freeze is already in place. The president has the authority to cut funding to programs favored by the Democrats such as social services and environmental programs. Sanctuary cities or jurisdictions could see funding withheld. The federal government will not spend on non-essentials during this shutdown, but that will only anger Democrats who refuse to budge.
Congress serves no purpose. They represent private lobbying interest groups and serve the invisible hand rather than the people of the United States. A private company would never shutter its office over a fiscal budget disagreement. Our public servants must reach a resolution immediately, and I see no reason why they deserve pay during a deadlock. These individuals are on taxpayer-funded vacation for the majority of the year and refuse to perform the minimal work they are expected to do. It seems they are unfit for the job. Fire everyone and start fresh.
Posted originally on CTH on October 1, 2025 | Sundance
Information from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services as they conducted an operation from September 19th through September 28th in Minneapolis, St Paul. Stunning immigration fraud.
MINNEAPOLIS – U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, in coordination with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, conducted Operation Twin Shield, the first of its kind targeted surge of fraud detection and deterrence activities across Minneapolis-St. Paul and surrounding areas Sept. 19 to 28 —immigration officers discovered suspected fraud in 275 cases in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area.
The effort focused on site visits and targeted verifications for applicants and petitioners with pending immigration benefits who matched specified risk criteria. The operation aligns with Executive Order 14161, Protecting the United States from Foreign Terrorists and Other National Security and Public Safety Threat. The types of applications for immigration benefits investigated included marriage and family-based petitions, employment authorizations, and certain parole-related requests.
Operation Twin Shield was a resounding success: USCIS officers focused on more than 1,000 cases that had fraud or ineligibility indicators, conducted over 900 site visits and in-person interviews, and found evidence of fraud, non-compliance, or public safety or national security concerns in 275 cases—44 percent of cases interviewed. USCIS coordinated with our ICE and FBI partners, who provided valuable assistance during the operation. As of today, USCIS issued Notices to Appear (NTAs) or referred aliens to ICE in 42 cases, and 4 aliens were apprehended. USCIS expects data on NTAs, referrals to ICE, and adverse adjudicative actions to increase as more administrative investigations are completed.
Operation Twin Shield uncovered many lies. For example, one alien admitted to fabricating a death certificate from Kenya for $100 to falsely claim the termination of a marriage—the spouse in question is alive, residing in Minneapolis, and is the mother of five of his children. In another case, an alien is the son of a known or suspected terrorist, he also overstayed his visa, and was previously found to have engaged in marriage fraud that resulted in the denial of several immigration benefit requests. In another case, a petitioner admitted to officers with Operation Twin Shield that she commited marriage fraud; this was only a few hours after swearing that her marriage was bona fide during an interview at our Minneapolis office. In another case, an alien engaged in marriage fraud by taking advantage of an elderly U.S. citizen spouse, including subjecting the spouse to elder abuse and exploitation. This is a small sample of the immigration fraud USCIS officers across the nation combat every single day.
“USCIS is declaring an all-out war on immigration fraud. We will relentlessly pursue everyone involved in undermining the integrity of our immigration system and laws. With help from ICE and the FBI, USCIS’ Operation Twin Shield was a tremendous success—hundreds of bad actors will be held accountable,” said USCIS Director Joseph B. Edlow. “Immigration fraud undermines the integrity of our lawful immigration system, harms those who follow the law, and poses risks to national security and public safety. Under President Trump, we will leave no stone unturned.”
Operation Twin Shield is the first time USCIS dedicated resources on this scale in a single geographical area. Unlike during the Biden administration, USCIS immigration officers are now empowered to thoroughly vet aliens as required by law, and to pursue immigration fraud wherever it’s encountered. (SOURCE)
Posted originally on Sep 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Seasonal retail hiring may plummet to the lowest level since 2009. Job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas expects retailers to add under 500,000 temporary positions in the final three months of the year, an 8% annual decline, and the smallest gain in 16 years. Retail depends on holiday Q4 sales for a bulk of annual revenue and the hiring trend is a glaring sign of a declining economy.
Certain retailers, like Target, stated that they plan to offer overtime hours to existing employees. Yet another sign of the times as people are eager for additional income and companies are not keen to take on additional employees.
A PwC survey from September 2025 indicates that the average person plans to spend 5% less this holiday season, down from $1,638 in 2024 to $1,552 per person. The survey has not indicated a drop in holiday sales since 2020. PwC’s figure translates to ~$413B–$460B total if scaled to ~266M adult consumers. Gen Z notably plans to spend 23% less this year as the cost of living has caused most young adults to live paycheck to paycheck, whereas boomers with sufficient savings plan to spend 5% more.
The National Retail Federation (NRF), however, predicts US retail sales will rise between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024, reaching between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion for the year. As for holiday spending, the NRF predicts a rise between 2.5% and 3.5% reaching a total between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.
Hiring trends in retail indicate that companies are less than optimistic about overall foot traffic this holiday season. Americans are spending more on less. Discretionary spending has been on the decline as inflation never meaningly waned.
Posted originally on Sep 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
A new report by Eurostat has found that Croatians feel safer than people in any other European Union nation, with only 1.4% of the population reporting anti-social activity. Lithuania and Poland ranked close behind Croatia. In contrast, Greeks feared the most for their safety with over 20% of citizens reporting crime. What is the common denominator?
Citizens in EU nations with stricter immigration policies feel safer than those with open borders or whose nations are situated as a landing point. Croatia cracked down on immigration policies this year, leading to a 70% decline in work permit approvals. Yet, that is not the population in question. Over 26,000 migrants passed through Croatia in 2024, but most continued on to other EU nations. The border with Bosnia is monitored with drones and an active police force. “Only 3.6% of the people who declared their intention to apply for international protection in the Republic of Croatia actually make a formal application,” the Interior Ministry in Zagreb told DW. “We have no information about the countries to which these people went.”
Then you have Greece, unfortunately, a landing spot for migrants arriving by boat. The EU Pact was intended to provide safeguards to migrants to streamline the process. Brussels provided Greece with over 5 billion euros in funding over the past decade to manage migration, but the off is no longer worth the risk. Greece finally took a hardline on migration in 2025 and began implementing harsh penalties including imprisonment and ankle tag monitoring for those awaiting deportation. The EU has accused Greece of violating international law by returning migrants to Turkish waters and operating detention centers. Yet, due to the extreme nature of open border policies, these measures were crucial to regain control over the nation.
The nations who openly welcomed migrants are facing the highest rates of migrant-related crime. Migrants tend to be lone males who do not integrate well into European society. Take Germany, for example, the hub for migrants thanks to Angela Merkel’s policies some ten years ago. Violent crime peaked to a 15-year high in 2023, and migrants were responsible for 40% of all violent crimes. Nationalist sentiments are growing throughout Europe because the people are experiencing the repercussions of open borders.
Posted originally on Sep 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The entire English Legal System has abandoned everything that once made Britain the beacon of human rights and liberty in the world. There is absolutely nothing left for Britain even to hold its head upright. This man, pretending to be a judge, ASSUMES what he said is racist, without acknowledging that the immigrants are NOT all of a particular race. Then he PRESUMES that those words instigated someone else to violence with ZERO evidence of that being the case at all. This is NOT the rule of law, and when that crumbles, the ONLY solution becomes revolution and violence, for there is no court of law that can ensure that society remains civilized.
Perhaps this “judge” who is obviously violating the English Bill of Rights should turn to Confusus. His legal doctrines are far better than this nonsense. Even Jesus Christ addressed a gathering of Jews and told them: “And you shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free.” Not in Britain. The truth will get you tax-free living in prison for 7 years.
The most famous trial where a jury stood up refusing to find the defendant guilty in the face of a corrupt government was that of William Penn (1644-1718), the founder of Pennsylvania. Penn was the leader of the Quakers in London, and you can see why people fled to America. The sect was not recognized by the government and was forbidden to meet in any building for the purpose of worship. In 1670, William Penn held a worship service on a quiet street, which a peaceful group of fellow Quakers attended. Penn and another Quaker, William Mead, were arrested for disturbing the king’s peace and summoned to stand trial.
As the two men entered the courtroom, a bailiff ordered them to put their hats, which they had removed, back on their heads. When they complied, they were called forward and held in contempt of court for being in the courtroom with their hats on. Penn discovered that contempt of court is a personal prerogative of the judge and an infliction of punishment by a judge who becomes the legislator, jury, and sentencing judge.
Penn demanded to know what crime he was being charged with preaching – the cornerstone of Due Process. The judge refused to supply any information as to his crime and instead referred vaguely to common law. When Penn protested that he was entitled to a specific indictment (NOTICE), he was removed from the presence of the judge and jury and confined in an enclosed corner of the room known as the bale dock.
Penn could neither confront the witnesses who accused him of preaching to the Quakers nor ask them questions about their charges against him. Several witnesses testified that Penn had preached to a gathering, which included Mead, but one showed some hesitancy as to whether Mead had been present. The judge turned to Mead and questioned him directly. In effect, the judge became the prosecutor, as he asked Mead if he was guilty. Mead invoked the common-law privilege against self-incrimination, which provoked hostile comments from the judge. The court then sent Mead to join Penn in the bale dock out of the sight of the jury and witnesses.
Finally, after the testimony, the court concluded that the judge had instructed the jury to find the defendants guilty as charged, dictating what verdict he had expected. Penn tried to protest but was silenced and again sent out of the courtroom. The jury, for its part, proved sympathetic to the two defendants and refused the judge’s command to find the defendants guilty.
At this point, the judge became so enraged, as I would expect from Judge Juan Merchan, and sent the jury back to reconsider their verdict. When they returned with the same verdict, the court criticized the jury’s leader, Bushnell, and demanded “a verdict that the court will accept, and you shall be locked up without meat, drink, fire, and tobacco…We will have a verdict by the help of God or you will starve for it.”
After that, the jury was sent back three more times but returned with the same verdict. Finally, the jury refused to reconsider. The judge then fined each jury member forty marks and ordered them imprisoned until the fine was paid. Penn and Mead went to prison anyway, held in contempt for obeying the bailiff’s order that they put on their hats.
Later, the jury members won a writ of habeas corpus and were released from prison. Penn and Mead left England after their release from prison, having a taste of English justice, and sailed to America. (Earl Warren, “A Republic, If You Can Keep It”, p. 113-115). Thus, Pennsylvania was founded. This was the Bushel’s Case(1670) 124 E.R. 1006, a famous English decision on the role of juries and that they possessed the independence to decide the validity of the law being prosecuted.
Where is the Magna Carta Right to a Trial by Jury of Your Peers?
This guy is forced to plead guilty to a non-crime because if he dares go to trial and the Judge refuses to allow the jury to nullify this insane Starmmer law, then he will be given the maximum time of 7 years+ for demanding a fair trial.
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