Swedish Elections Shift to the Right


The Swedish election has shifted to the right thanks to the Refugee Crisis. The Social Democrats came in with the worst result in decades and the right-wing populists have risen to their best results since their inception. Although the Social Democrats escaped a complete disaster in the parliamentary elections, they have lost a lot to the right-wing populists. The party of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven appears to remain in place. Meanwhile, the currency still appears lower as we move forward in time.

Influence & Ranks


COMMENT: Marty; Did you know that your site is listed in the top 20 economic sites in the world? You are in the top 20 with Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, London FT, and even  Brookings Ben Bernanke’s Blog. The rest of the list includes the Economic Policy Institute, Economics & Statistics Administration, and The Berkeley Blog Business & Economics. You may be a lot more influential than you portray.

JS

REPLY: Perhaps. But keep in mind that your enemies always read you because they need to know what you are saying now to feed their hatred. Aside from that, every intelligence service reads our work. They understand there is a cycle to everything and ever since the London FT reported I warned Russia would collapse just before the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management collapse on Russian bonds, they all pay close attention.

New Study Islands are Growing not Sinking with Global Warming Conspiracy


This theory of Global Warming and the oceans will rise and places like New York City and Miami will sink beneath the waves is just so childish it is beyond contemplation that anyone coming up with such a theory would ever understand a complex system. They must have cut class during Physic probably because it was too far above their head. I have written before that the real experts on the oceans and how they function were at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University. It was in 1956 when they published A theory of ice ages by Maurice Ewing and William Donn, which these Global Conspiracy theorists obviously never read.  The stupid assumption that if the ice all melted the oceans would rise demonstrates they are incapable of understanding the planetary forces or are too corrupt to come up with a theory that is sufficient to convince weak-minded politicians.

These pretend scientists have been surprised by the recent findings, which show that some islands in the Pacific have actually grown by almost one-third in size over the past 60 years and have not sunk beneath the waves as predicted by the Global Warming conspiracy crowd. Indeed, the island chains to have increased in land mass such as Tuvalu and neighboring Kiribati. Both islands have attracted attention at last year’s Copenhagen climate summit. In this new study, researchers compared aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images of 27 islands taken since the 1950s. There were only four islands which had decreased in size despite the local sea level rises of almost five inches in that time. These were mostly uninhabited. On the contrary, 23 islands remained the same or grew in mass. There were seven islands in Tuvalu group which actually grew as much as 30%. Melting ice will never result in the water rising for they simply do not understand how ice ages are even created. You need the ice to melt to create the evaporation that then comes down as snow and builds the glaciers.

Society was reborn from the Dark Ages BECAUSE of climate. This was the Medieval Warming period. However, the cycle of climate change turned downward and by the end of the 17th century, the climate turned bitterly cold. These Global Warming conspiracy crowd or con artists, also fail to correlate (or deliberately ignore) the impact of volcanoes as the one during the 17th century that created one of the greatest Russian famines in its history between 1601–1603. The weather began to turn against society again going into the end of the 17th century. The years 1693 and 1694 resulted in a major famine in France. The harvest of 1693 had been more than mediocre. The winter of 1694 was very hard, followed by a spring without rain. As of June, grain reserves were exhausted in most French cities and the registers of that period record a death toll of up to 35%.

1709 Deep FreezeEurope was rapidly turning colder much faster than expected during the 17th century. That sharp decline was a real global cooling period for Europe that culminated in what became known as the Deep Freeze of 1709. In the first few months of 1709 remained in a deep freeze that again wiped out food supplies. People were ice-skating on the canals of Venice, which again was highly unusual to see such cold that far south on the water. People could cross the Baltic Sea on horseback because it was completely frozen! You could not ring a church bell because it would shatter it was that cold.

We need to pay attention and at least prepare. We are in climate change, but it is not going to get warmer. The extreme volatility will produce draoughts with hot summers and extremely cold winters.

 

Winter Arrived Snowing in Rome – Climatic Change events result Historically in an increase in Violence


COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong; It is snowing here in Rome already. This looks like a bitterly cold winter this year as you said.

Roberto

COMMENT #2: Marty; I live just down the street from your old place in Kensington. It is snowing already. I have never seen it turn so cold so fast.

Cheers from the new Winter Wonderland.

PG

REPLY: It does not look good for weather again. Well, it was so hot during the summer creating a drought the Hunger Stones appeared, and now we have snow already. This is the same patterns historically that ended up resulting in the defeat of Napoleon. The crazy thing is this was easily predictable. I warned about the solar minimum back in 2015. This has been the fastest plunge into solar minimum that anyone has seen to date. Last year in 2017, there was extreme cold down all the way into Spain where food is grown for winter in Europe killing the crops.

The Atlantic current is slowing down dramatically. A team of scientists says it is the weakest in 1600 years. Naturally, they attribute it to humans who are driving their cars and heating their homes which is melting the ice in Greenland and that is fresh water which is lighter than seawater. They are predicting, of course, it could stop altogether in a few decades. The only problem is the classic one. They ignore cycles and assume whatever trend is in motion will stay in motion to the point it will stop completely. If that were the case, then we would probably go into a White Earth Effect and we should be all dead anyhow so perhaps the planet will heal itself when we are all gone. So they are predicting something that has no historical foundation since it has never happened before.

Here is a chart from an important study derived from the ice core samples in Greenland. A research team from Japan, France, Denmark, and the USA reconstructed the temperature history of the last 4,000 years in the center of Greenland with the help of ice cores and found that we are by no means creating any global warming that has never happened before in history. The basis of this chart was created from the air bubbles trapped in the ice. They were able to calculate the temperature at the snow surface by analyzing argon and nitrogen isotope ratios. This temperature has averaged -30.7 ° C over the past 4,000 years.

One thing to understand is that the peak in the Roman economy is regarded to have taken place with the Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius (161-180AD). We see a huge spike down in temperature which corresponds to the peak in the Roman Empire which Edward Gibbons drew the line for the beginning of the Decline & Fall. It is clear from contemporary sources that the climate in Europe was turning extremely cold. By 170AD, Marcus Aurelius was battling the Germanic attempts to invade the south most likely due to this climate change. He wrote his Mediataions that he desperately needed to keep his mind distracted from the bitter cold at night. He even sent his children home to Rome to live with their great-great-aunt Matidia because Marcus thought the evening air was far too cold for them. He even asked his friend for “some particularly eloquent reading matter, something of your own, or Cato, or Cicero, or Sallust or Gracchus—or some poet, for I need distraction, especially in this kind of way, by reading something that will uplift and diffuse my pressing anxieties.” id/ Ad Antoninum Imperator 4.1 (= Haines 1.300ff), qtd. and tr. Birley, Marcus Aurelius, 120.

We know that from about 160 to 290 there was a period of climate cooling which dramatically impacted the northwestern provinces of the Empire and most likely inspired the initial invasions of the Germanic tribes. There was clearly dramatic swings in the climate. We have an extreme cold reported by Marcus Aurelius and this is accompanied by a drought, which is also like the patterns we are witnessing today. We also know that the Roman Emperor Elagabalus (218-222AD) during the third century just 50 years later ordered that snow was to be brought down from the mountains via donkey trains and placed in the garden next to his villa to keep cool during the summer. We have this period of extreme cold and extreme heat.

We also know from contemporary accounts that the ancient Egyptians hung damp reeds over windows and placed water-filled pots in hallways. As the water evaporated, it would cool the air. They also figured out that channeling air through stones resulted in the stones absorbing the heat and the air was cooled. I felt this myself when I climbed into the Great Pyramid and made it to the King’s Chamber. I thought it was air-conditioned at first and then realized it was an ancient system that still worked.

Dendrochronology, the science of dating events, environmental change, and archaeological artifacts by using the characteristic patterns of annual growth rings in timber and tree trunks, indicates that there was a severe drought which began in 338AD and persisted until 377AD. This event contributed to the fall of Rome after the recovery of the period of Constantine I (309-337AD) who died in 337AD.

 

Pope Leo in 452AD meets Attila the Hun

It was this severe drought that forced the nomadic pastoral federation of Huns to seek pastures and began to invade Europe to the west and south. Their attacks north of the Black Sea drove the Goths to flee into the Roman Empire and ultimately to attack Rome itself. Increased climate variability from coincided with the decline of the Western Roman Empire and its ultimate collapse in 476AD. For the Eastern Roman Empir,e there is an evidence for a regional prolonged drought in modern central Turkey also began in during the 5th century.

Hopefully, one day our approach to history will start a major exploration to understand history in a new way. What our computer has accomplished on correlating all of these trends is really unsurpassed. Looking at the global picture of climate and economic change provides a much greater precision in identifying some of the causal relationships underlying societal change that many did not quite understand. The issue of how climatic change cycles contribute to the disruptions affecting human societies and ultimately causing changes in the political system structures is something that has always attracted a great deal of attention in our research. What jumps out from the correlation is that climatic change events have resulted in an increase in violence over contested resources sparking great migrations and invasions

U.S-Canada Trade Talks Ongoing – Canada’s Dairy Tariffs and Demands for Exemptions on “Cultural Industries” Still at Issue….


In case anyone was wondering, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is in Europe talking trade with the European Union.  Within the delegation of trade negotiation, the EU trade agreement is designated to Ross, while USTR Lighthizer covers Canada and Mexico and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is holding point on China.  Secretary Ross is getting the royalty treatment in Greece today.

Meanwhile, Ambassador Robert Lighthizer is still engaged with Chrystia from Canada as negotiations continue to see if a U.S-Canada trade deal is possible.  He must have the patience of Job. The 52,000 lost Canadian jobs announced today has shifted the landscape a little.  Canada appears slightly more likely to back-away from prior demands to carve out the Canadian Dairy industry and continue the process of protectionist tariffs.

Ms. Freeland is heading back to Canada tonight, leaving her negotiation team in DC to continue working.  However, Canada still demands to exempt their “cultural industries”, telecommunications and media sectors, from any trade agreement. The issues for Canada to join the U.S-Mexico agreement are/were:

  • open their telecommunications and banking sector (eliminate non tariff barriers).
  • eliminate soft-wood (lumber) and aeronautics federal subsidies.
  • begin a process of lowering their assembly use of Chinese/Asian goods.
  • accept the rules of origin for North American manufacturing.
  • eliminate protectionist tariffs on dairy and farm products.
  • accept the U.S-Mexico terms for arbitration and dispute resolution.

The Telecommunications/media sector is non-negotiable according to Justin from Canada. There may be flexibility within banking (not much information).  The lumber and aeronautics subsidies could be dropped.  Rules of origin are non-negotiable for President Trump.  Protectionist tariffs on dairy and farm products are the current issue being discussed.  Dispute resolution is an outstanding issue.

CANADA / WASHINGTON — The vexing issue of securing more American access to Canadian dairy remained a major obstacle in NAFTA negotiations as Canada’s lead minister on the continental trade pact departed the U.S. capital Friday.

Larry Kudlow, the director of President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council, laid that out in the plainest terms possible during a televised interview Friday morning, hours before talks ended between Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland her U.S. counterpart, trade czar Robert Lighthizer.

Freeland had come to Washington this week in an attempt to break the impasse in the 13-month renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was started at Trump’s behest.

A senior government official, briefing reporters on background, said Freeland was departing Washington on Friday night, but would keep in touch with Lighthizer. Canadian and American negotiators would continue to meet, the official added. (more)

Chrystia Freeland remarks.

.

Robert Lighthizer won’t discuss anything with the media; however, Larry Kudlow discusses some of the issues:

NEC Chairman Larry Kudlow Discusses Stunning U.S. Economic Position….


Earlier today National Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow appeared on CNBC for an extensive interview about the current U.S. economy. Jobs growing; wages growing; economy growing; trade deals improving…. Lots of good MAGAnomic stuff:

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(Via CNBC) White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow is extremely optimistic about the U.S. economy.

“The economic boom continues,” he said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” Friday, citing the August jobs report and the month’s wage gain data. “It’s the big story of 2018. Jobs, growth, wages. It doesn’t get much better than that.”

The August jobs report came in above expectations Friday. The U.S. economy created 201,000 nonfarm payroll jobs for the month versus the 191,000 estimate from economists surveyed by Reuters. Average hourly earnings rose 2.9 percent for the month on an annualized basis, the highest since April 2009.

Kudlow also referenced other recent reports as evidence for the strong economy.

“Wages are rising very very well. This is great stuff. And it’s widespread,” he said. “ISM manufacturing BOOM! ISM services BOOM! There is no let up to this. Consumer spending, we’re probably emerging into a capital goods boom right now … This is the take-off.”

Last month, the government said GDP grew at a 4.2 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, the fastest pace in nearly four years.

Kudlow is director of the National Economic Council and is one of President Donald Trump’s top advisors.  (more)

Trump Threatens to Cancel NAFTA If Congress Interferes


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Do you agree with Trump that if he canceled NAFTA, the United States would be better off?

SN

ANSWER: Ironically – YES from a jobs perspective, not the consumer. What you have to understand is that these trade deals are all nonsense. They are NOT Free Trade in the least. They are compromises so politicians can pretend they have accomplished something.

Take the deal with Europe. France’s position was that nothing can be called “Champagne” unless it comes from that region in France. Every trade negotiation is a compromise that maintains protectionism. In that regard, if Trump actually canceled NAFTA, his boast that the US would be better off is meant that all products would then be subjected to tariffs and all of the American industry would be protected.

Now, that said, this view is that of the worker – not the consumer. All of these trade negotiations are one-sided. They are always focused only on jobs and not producing the best price for the consumer which in turn raises our standard of living. I have never encountered even one politician who has EVER defended the consumer in trade deals. This violates the principle of Comparative Advantage put forth by David Ricardo. It’s true that Saudi Arabia could grow lettuce but the cost of irrigation in the desert would make the cost 10 times more than simply buying it from Europe or North America. It would cost the consumer far more to simply grow that product in the desert than importing so it is best to buy it elsewhere and focus on your productive capacity in which you have some comparative advantage over others.

Canadian Economy Loses 51,600 Jobs in August – Biggest Drop in Decade…


The U.S. economy added 201,000 jobs in August. The U.S. unemployment rate is 3.9%.  And year-over-year U.S. wage growth jumped to 2.9%. [Bureau of Labor and Statistics Link]

Meanwhile, the Canadian economy dropped 51,600 jobs in August.  The unemployment rate increased to 6%. And year-over-year wage growth dropped to 2.6%.

CANADA – The net loss in August — which was the second largest monthly decline since the last recession — drove the unemployment rate to 6 per cent, from 5.8 per cent a month earlier, while wage gains decelerated to their slowest this year.

Economists had expected a gain of 5,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.9 per cent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.  So far in 2018, the Canadian economy has shed 14,600 jobs. (read more)

In the media analysis Bloomberg talks down the strength of the U.S. economy, and tries to dismiss the scale of the economic growth in America.  Simultaneously, the same Bloomberg media outlet calls the Canadian results “whacky” and “unexpected” and makes excuses for the miserable economic results.  Huh, imagine that.

Pro-growth; pro-business; small government; lower regulation; pro-economic expansion; -vs- Big government; anti-business; choking regulations; and low economic expansion.

Any questions?

Jumpin’ Ju-Ju Bones: Massive Collapse in Brand Image for Nike Following New Colin Kaepernick Branding Campaign…


Never before in the history of corporate branding decisions has a multi-billion dollar company had such a massive and swift drop of brand image as Nike.  The results from Morning Consult Intelligence, a firm that specializes in monitoring and measuring the brand image and reputation for thousands of major companies, reflects a massive drop in brand image across every single demographic.

We suspected there would be a diminishment of brand image, but nothing like the scale discovered within the polled data:

The report features over 8,000 interviews conducted among American adults, including 1,694 interviews pre-campaign launch (8/26/18 – 9/3/18) and 5,481 interviews post-campaign launch (9/4/18 – 9/5/18). Additionally, Morning Consult conducted a study among 1,168 adults in the U.S. about Nike’s ad and the decision to choose Kaepernick as the face of the campaign.

  • Nike’s Favorability Drops by Double Digits: Before the announcement, Nike had a net +69 favorable impression among consumers, it has now declined 34 points to +35 favorable.

  • No Boost Among Key Demos: Among younger generations, Nike users, African Americans, and other key demographics, Nike’s favorability declined rather than improved.
  • Purchasing Consideration Also Down: Before the announcement, 49 percent of Americans said they were absolutely certain or very likely to buy Nike products. That figure is down to 39 percent now.

FULL Polling Data Available Here

From a pure economic/financial perspective this Nike  branding campaign doesn’t make sense.  On its face, it just seems absurd. Why would any major corporation intentionally stake out a branding position that is adverse to their financial interests?

The most likely answer is HERE

President Trump MAGA Rally Billings, Montana – 9:00pm EST Livestream


Today President Trump travels to Billings, Montana to host a MAGA campaign rally for the 2018 Mid-Terms. The rally is scheduled for 7:00pm Mountain time, 9:00 pm Eastern. With all of the recent headline news this is sure to be a dynamic rally.

UPDATE: Video Added

RSBN Livestream LinkFox News Livestream LinkFox10 Livestream Link