Tag Archives: Trade Wars

Nov 21 2018

Italy v EU – November 21, 2018


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Re-Posted Nov 21, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The event today may be the fact that the EU has now stated it will bring sanctions against Italy for refusing to comply with its demands. So here we have the Pi Target and to the day Brussels has officially rejected Italy’s spending budget on Wednesday, November 21st which opens the door to sanctions. With hindsight, we will perhaps look at this day as the start of a further deterioration of the European Union that has converted a trade union into a centralized dictatorship applying a central theme of austerity to everyone regardless of their economic conditions.

 

Nov 20 2018

Rising 3rd Party Trend


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Nov 20, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Although the recounts have been going on, the Republicans still seem to be winning both governorships and the Senate. The Blue Wave fizzled out and their victory in the House still produced fewer seats than they held before.

That FOX poll that reported 46% of Republicans identified with Trump rather than the GOP clearly shows that our computer has been correct in not merely forecasting a Trump victory in 2016 and no Blue Wave here in 2018 that would take the Senate and House, but that Trump really is an outsider and interestingly enough is the closest thing there is to a 3rd Party candidate,

The Democratic victory in the House at least placate them from the violence they have been threatening if they lost. But that decorum will not last long. They will turn up the violence into 2020 and as out computer is showing, we may see a significant rise into 2023/4 with more and more people becoming independent. In the end, the question becomes: Is there a Third Party Solution

Nov 19 2018

November 21st, 2018 Pi Target


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Posted Nov 19, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

There are so many things happening in the political world it is next to impossible to figure out what is going to be the focal point for the Pi target since perhaps it could be a combination. The lastest hat being thrown into the ring is the European Commission is planning to enter their sanctions against Italy. As it stands currently, they have proposed disciplining Italy under EU fiscal rules on November 21st, 2018, unless the country’s government agrees to change its draft budget plan according to EU dictates. This could set in motion a drop in Italian debt which may force the ECB to buy more Italian debt or stand back and watch rates go crazy. This may also be the starting point of sending Italy into an exit position from the EU. In the weeks and months from now, we will be able to see that this was the turning point if this takes place.

Nov 18 2018

BREXIT v EU


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Nov 18, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Dominic Raab, who was the negotiator in BEXIT told the chief whip straight after cabinet yesterday that he would quit. He said the prime minister could still change course and should be ready to walk away with no deal. Naturally, Prime Minister May defends the deal and this is indicative of someone who never supported BREXIT, to begin with.

Meanwhile, Chancellor Merkel said talks to amend the draft agreement were unlikely as a deal was “on the table” and Britain should just walk away and let Europe see the stupidity of their actions. Britain is the biggest market for German cars in Europe. A no deal will devastate the German economy at a critical time when it needs that trade the most.

Nov 17 2018

Cryptography


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency

Re-Posted Nov 17, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have to say that Bitcoin has crashed again because the IMF says each country should create its own cryptocurrency. That would kill all the cryptocurrencies and you were right again. Governments will never surrender their power to Bitcoin.

Thank you for your realistic perspective

DT

REPLY: I really do not get these people. They are dreamers. Of course, governments will not surrender. Their own pensions are at stake. The majority of transactions are already electronic. You just take a picture of your check and deposit it electronically without having to go to the bank. Separate the technology from power

Nov 16 2018

Turkey looking to Cut Taxes to Fight Inflation?


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted Nov 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Since the beginning of the year, the Turkish currency has lost more than a third of its value against the dollar. As the currency declines, imports rise in cost since they are denominated in foreign currency.  This adds to the inflation problem domestically. Among other things, the sharp criticism of Erdoğan in the markets has cast doubt on the independence of the central bank. In September, it raised its key interest rate from 17.75 to 24 percent in the fight against inflation without success. This too adds to inflation.

There are people starting to look at tax cuts in selected areas to compensate for the crisis in hyperinflation. It is an interesting proposal but Erdoğan is worried about a real coup this time.

Nov 16 2018

Real Estate – Taxes – Currency


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate

Re-Posted Nov 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Dear Martin,

I bought ‘The World Real Estate Report’ at the end of 2016. It stated that Australian real estate was going to fall after the first quarter (March) in 2016. The property prices in Melbourne (where I live) continued to rise in April 2016 so I sent an email to Socrates Support asking them when real estate should peak. I received the reply below, which stated that the peak was either in for global real estate or the latest by the end of the first quarter 2017.

Anyway, since I owned a tiny house in Melbourne, I was facing a difficult decision if I should sell or not since it would be impossible to buy back in if the prices continued to go up.

I have been reading your blog daily since 2012, and I have read all of your forecasts being correct (eg. the Dow continuing to go up, US Index going up, Brexit, Trump winning). I also bought your Gold report in 2014 and watched gold bottom (Dec 2015) correctly for the date and price on the first benchmark, truly an unbelievable forecast.

Based on your track record I decided to sell my property at the end of the first quarter (March 2017), for which I received a fantastic price.

I’m happy to inform you that prices have been falling since the 3rd quarter of 2017.

I just wanted to congratulate you on another correct forecast.

REPLY: We all need a place to live. Governments are attacking real estate thinking it is too high and they need to make it more affordable for others to buy. They fail to understand that when they do that, the wipe out the savings dor retirement for others. Raising taxes to support government pensions is morally wrong and economically a disaster. There really should be some qualification to be a politician who them plays with people’s lives

Nov 15 2018

Raab Resigns from BREXIT negotiations – May is tottering on Losing the PM Post


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Nov 15, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The British pound has dropped 1% today and is trading in the mid 127 level. The rumor running around the City (the financial sector in London) is that Prime Minister May has called an emergency press conference and she will resign handing power to Michael Grove. However, it may be more likely that  Grove has been offered the job of Brexit secretary in the wake of Dominic Raab’s resignation. Theresa May clearly does not know how to negotiate. Perhaps she should ask Donald Trump to represent Britain in BREXIT negotiations. Thacertainlyin would liven things up and it certainly would end up with a much better deal for Britain.

The pro-BREXIT supporters are demanding a shift in the government’s negotiating strategy first.

Nov 15 2018

BREXIT Nothing Like What the People Voted For


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized

Re-Posted Nov 15, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

The draft deal of Prime Minister May smells really bad. It is clear that politicians are clueless about trade and the U.K. remaining within the (EU) customs union forever is really going to economically tie Britain to the EU without a right to even vote. What they do not get is that trade in the EU is not negotiated with a single government. Every member gets to veto a trade deal which prevents the entire 28 member states from acting in their own self-interest. So Britain cannot cut a trade deal with the USA or China without EU approval. Then the speculation goes that they will have to pay dues with no vote.

If Britain does approve the deal precisely on November 21st, 2018, then out long-term projections for the British pound are most likely going to be right on point. So let’s just hold our breath. Why should this not be absolutely just crazy? That is what we elect politicians with no experience in trading or economics to make major decisions in areas they are unfamiliar with

Nov 14 2018

Want to MAGA? Best to Be a Stan Lee


Published on Nov 14, 2018

Marvel Comic legend Stan Lee died at 95 this week. Bill Whittle Now draws lessons from the super powers of this failed novelist who shaped the culture in life, and will continue to make America better for decades to come. Bill Whittle Now brings you sharp insight on the news of the day, five times each week thanks to the members at http://BillWhittle.com