Category The ECM

Jan 9 2023

Stirring the Pot For War


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 9, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Many people have written in and asked why have I been unable to convince governments to avoid war. Quite frankly, they think they can win and more importantly, they need this because the entire socialistic system is collapsing. They rely on people buying their bonds year after year with no intention of paying anything back. This is just our time to collapse the same as communism collapsed in 1989 in China and Russia. We have run our course and the clock is running out of time. This is the 34th year since 1989. Socialism will collapse. It has no other choice here in 2023.

I have received videos from Ukrainian soldiers who are threatening to go after Zelensky. I was not given permission to post them so I do not want to get anyone in trouble. They are dying in far greater numbers than the rigged press is reporting and they are freezing.

Strategically, the US is attempting to create the Asian version of NATO aligning with Japan and the Philippines to rely on their soldiers to fight China. Meanwhile, in China, there is absolutely no question that they are preparing to take Taiwan and I believe this was accelerated by the Biden Administration (1) abandoning the one-China policy maintained since Nixon and allowing Pelosi to fly to Taiwan just ahead of the elections in China which was an absolute brain dead stunt. Consequently, China is gearing up for military action to take control of Taiwan because the Biden Administration has actually called their bluff. President Xi Jinping secured a historic third term last year and has made it clear he plans to retake Taiwan. Pay attention in May.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=quRNaKA8HZE%3Ffeature%3Doembed

Meanwhile, with respect to North Korea, we would have to take into account their 1.2 million-man Korean People’s Army, which is organized into nineteen corps-sized units, including nine infantry corps, four mechanized corps, one armored corps, one artillery corps, the Pyongyang Defense Command, Missile Guidance Bureau and Light Infantry Instruction Guidance Bureau. More than half of these forces, particularly the mechanized, armor, and artillery forces are located near the DMZ, making an early cross-border assault unattractive. Kim and Putin have come to an agreement and will support each other. On the 72-year anniversary of the Koren War when they prevailed against the United States, Kim condemned “aggression moves” by Washington and Seoul, vowing to take revenge at a time of rising tension on the Korean Peninsula. Here too, it appears that Kim is preparing for war against at least the South and possibly expanding into Japan – a hated enemy.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=8jt6sbfoT8s%3Ffeature%3Doembed

The Middle East is heating up with Iran preparing for war against Saudi Arabia. This has prompted even Israel and Saudi Arabia to consider a joint defense agreement. Meanwhile, Iran and Russia have come together to also form an alliance. We may also expect that Syria will join on the side of Russia in the Middle East.

Looking at Iran just from the 1979 confrontation taking American hostages, the turning points for the last three waves, which are always the most intense, lined up with the 2014 turn on the Global War Model. The next wave was November 3rd, 2022 and here we see widespread civil unrest. In fact, the United Nations called it a critical situation on November 22nd, 2022.

The world is dumbfounded as to why in the hell we have world leader cheering war on every continent. I put forth a solution, some did not like it, but there is no other way out of this other than Schwab’s “Great Reset” which is really all about defaulting on all the national debts, the end of socialism, and the push for a one world government to end democracy so government retains power. Under my solution, the government would relinquish power. They did not like that. Schwab’s way leaves it necessary to create World War III, reduce the population escapes the pension liabilities, and start over with a new Bretton Woods II.

In 2008, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown joined French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in calling for better regulation of global financial markets.

“We urgently need what you might call the ‘new Bretton Woods,’ so that we can restore confidence in the system while dealing with the areas that have been exposed in recent weeks.”

I posted this video 5 years ago. It has only gotten worse.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=ARBduyoXsP4%3Fstart%3D40%26feature%3Doembed
Dec 24 2022

Interview: Nightmare Fall of the United States


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Dec 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Watch the video above or click here to watch my most recent interview with Greg Hunter from USAWatchdog:

Nightmare Fall of the United States

Dec 23 2022

Why does Academia Always Resist Change?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Education Re-Posted Dec 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I find it interesting that the Roman coin the academics said was fake has now been shown that it had been in circulation. Is this what you talk about how academics are always trying to reject anything that upset their established view of science or history?

SC

ANSWER: Absolutely. It does not matter the field. It is always the same. The Book Historia Augusta they swore was a fake and attributed it even to a monk a few years before.  Then there was Homer. They declare that was all fiction until Schleman set sail and discovered Troy, Mycena, Thebes and all the cities they said were fiction. Why this is the standard I cannot explain. They rejected Keynes until the politicians turned to the idea. They reject the existence of a Business Cycle to this very day. You have to beat them over the head with something to prove your point.

Sponsianus was aA second usurper from the Danube region, which today they claim is Ukraine.  Sponsianus appears to have come to power briefly in Dacia defending the area from an invasion of Germanic tribes of the Alamanni in 244AD during the early reign of Philip I (244-249AD) based upon coin finds bearing the name Sponsianus who was otherwise unknown to history. Like Historia Augusta, the academics immediately called the coin a fake. Anything that seems to upset the academic narrative they immediately reject regardless of the field.

In 1713, two gold aurei bearing the name of Sponsianus were unearthed in Transylvania, Romania together with coins of Gordian III and Philip I known as the Arab. This was followed by the suggestion that Sponsianus was a usurper during the reign of Philip I after he murdered Gordian III. Instantly, most academics declared them as forgeries. Simply because they found no written record mentioning this usurper, they conclude the coin must be fake.

However, this was the precise period when the Goths began to invade. We know that the Carpi began to invade Dacia no later than 246AD and within one year they were joined by the Goths to invade Moesia, which included the find site which was in Transylvania, Romania. We know of one other usurper at this time in the same region Pacatian (248AD), but in the end, he was murdered by his own troops.  There was yet one other usurper – Silbannacus who is known only from a single coin that now resides in the British Museum. Silbannacus most likely led a very short-lived rebellion during this same period on the Rhine perhaps about the same time period as Pacatian in the Moesia (Romania).

Silbannacus appears to have defended the region against the Alamanni during the first half of 244 AD was coins declare a victory as well as a usurpation of power with the support of the Senate. It is possible that Sponsianus may have been Severus Hostilianus of the Byzantine sources which may have confused him with Hostiliaisn (251AD), the young son of Trajan Decius (249-251AD).

Consequently, Sponsianus may be the same person noted by his Zonaras who refers to Severos Stilianos. It may have been the usurpation of Marcus Silbannacus and his support by the Senate that forced Philip to make concessions to the Persians. No emperor Sponsianus is mentioned in the Historia Augusta.

What we do know is that Philip I had murdered Gordian III in his attempt to seize the throne. However, he was not equipped to manage the entire empire. As the invasions began from the Northern Germanic tribes, this is clearly why we see these usurpations, not from a quest to seize the throne as much as the political turmoil facing these invasions.

Trajan Decius (249-251AD) was hailed emperor by the troops on the Danube and and he marched against Philip I and defeated him and his son at Verona. However, Trajan Decius was then the first emperor to be killed in battle against the Goths. It was because of these invasions that Trajan Decius took this as the Christians refusing to honor the gods of Rome angered the gods and as such he ordered the first widespread persecution of the Christians in 250AD because of these invasions.

History of the Region

The Alamanni several Germanic tribes including the Ubii, the Sicambri, the Teneteri, the Usipetes, the Catti, and the Cherusces. They were the inhabitants of the upper and lower Rhine, and those beyond that great river, such as the Westphaliaus, the Hessians, and the Saxons, as far as the Elbe and the Weser. They did not imitate the Roman coinage but issued their own Celtic gold staters early on.

It was Drusus, during the time of Augustus (27BC-14AD) who constructed forts and established garrisons throughout this region, in order to hold the Germanic tribes in check; at the same time that he opened a road for his troops through the Hyrcanian forest. The victories of Drusus (brother of Tiberius (14-37AD) over the Alamanni were well known. However, those exploits were not followed by the expansion of the empire and the subjugation of the Germanic tribes of that region. Thus, that area was never reduced to the form of a province.

Following this period, the Alamanni inhabiting that part of Germany, which is situated between the Danube, and the Upper Rhine, were finally subdued at first by Caracalla (198-217AD), and later by Aurelian (270-275AD) Later on, the father of Constantine I the Great (307-337AD), Constantius Chlorus (393-305), while still a caesar under the Tetrarchy, overthrew them with a great slaughter. They continued, nevertheless, from time to time, to wage war against subsequent emperors, from Constantine the Great to Gratian (367-383AD). They were finally brought to subjection 496 AD when they met with a major defeat by the Franks under King Clodovicus.

The primary reason for the Academic rejection of these coins stemmed from that reverse of the coin depicts an image borrowed from coins minted by C. Augurinus dating back to 187 BC. The inclusion of the Republican era reverse has led to suggest that Sponsianus was the leader of his senatorial resistance against Philip I. In opposition to this, some academics have suggested that it is unlikely that his senatorial recognition would have used along with a Republican reverse from the coins celebrating the family of the Minucii by C.Augurinus.

because there existed emperors appointed by the Senate of Pupienus (238AD) and Balbinus (238AD) Therefore, it has been argued that if Sponsianus was supported by the Senate he would have used a more current theme for his coinage. While the series is interesting, they certainly are not conclusive. It cannot be ruled out that Sponsianus perhaps claimed his right to the throne arguing he had descended from that ancient senatorial family. After all, Constantine the Great did that with Claudius II (268-270AD) in an attempt to so some legitimacy.

It is most likely that there were invasions in that area on the Danube frontier whereas he may have been held Emperor to defend the local region from the invaders. We have seen this before even for example Postumus (260-268AD) who claim the throne of the Gallic Empire to protect the people from invaders from the North. He issues coinage showing he was there to protect them from the barbarians which Rome could not. This region of the Danube was under attack at the time around 244 AD by the Alamanni the Germanic tribes. There have been additional ports of coins discovered in Romania that also date to this period of 244 AD suggesting that there was political instability and war in the region during that time.

Dec 21 2022

Political Contagion Does not Need Central Command


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Dec 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

When our model had forecast the fall of Communism in 1989, the general press was attributing it to modern communication since the Berlin Wall fell a few months later. I pointed out that the same time difference took place when in Rome they overthrew their king in 509BC and within a few months in Athens, they overthrew their tyrants and began Democracy. In my research, it was not that modern communication led to the me-too reaction that caused the fall of the Berlin Wall. The question is not how fast information travels, but how long it takes to filter through society to cause political change.

When we look back at the Communist Revolutions of 1848 a notable observation emerges. Here too Europe was engulfed as they occurred in dozens of the then-European states, countries, and empires without any kind of international coordination. It was the same sort of contagion that spread. Historians have pointed out that the gains were short-lived, and the repercussions of rising socialism indeed prevailed over the course of several decades.

In America, there was the Mexican-American War which erupted in 1846 and continued into 1848. The reason for the war was the Mexican refusal to accept Texas independence clashing with the desire of Texans for statehood that was feeding into the American desire for westward expansion. Thus, this became the first offensive war in the History of the United States.

Indeed, as Wave #915 began in 1848, while the Mexican-American War was subsiding, Europe erupted in a Communist Revolution that was spontaneous without a unified core directing it. However, the Communist Manifesto was written by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels in 1848 just before the Revolutions of 1848 engulfed Europe. It has been argued that even rumors of this work contributed to the uprising. The victorious counter-revolution brought court proceedings against Marx, but he was acquitted on February 9, 1849. Nevertheless, Marx was then banished from Germany (May 16, 1849). At first, Marx went to Paris, yet he was again banished after the demonstration of June 13, 1849. This time he fled to London, where he lived until his death. This is his entry to the British Museum Library in 1873.

While there were various debates over the causes of the 1848 Revolution, it was clearly a Revolution against Republicanism, that was precisely on schedule for our Revolutionary Cycle of 72 years from 1776, which was against Monarchy. 1848 was clearly against the corruption of Republicanism. In particular, the Revolutions of 1848 in France, the German states, the Austrian Empire, the Italian States, and Denmark were not coordinated and we find the same pattern in the fall of Communism in 1989.

Interestingly, there was no central coordination or cooperation for the 1848 Revolution. It also came on the long-term 172-year Revolutionary Cycle and at that time it impacted over 50 countries. Since the revolutions occurred in so many places and in so many countries, it was clearly just the time for revolution as we find ourselves ever since the 2020 election. The defeat of Trump, regardless of your opinion of Trump, sparked a great division in the country from which there will be no return.

Just as in 1848 when it is impossible to attribute a single general reason or theory as to why so many countries erupted, other than the Revolutionary Cycle incorporates the simple basic desire for change. In the United States, there was the rise of the Nativism Movement against immigrants that erupted in gun battles on the streets of Philadelphia.

Clearly, what contributed to this was the Hard Times of the 1840s following the Sovereign Defaults of the States (not Federally) in the USA after the Panic of 1837. This was the period known as the Hard Times and the shortage of coinage led to a wealth of Hard Times Tokens often of a political nature. They were even striking tokens in Europe as well.

It certainly seems that the Sovereign Defaults that produced the Hard Times also sparked a religious upheaval as took place during the Roman Empire following the Great Monetary Collapse of 260-270AD. That is when they were blaming Christians for angering the gods leading to Christian Persecutions which reached a peak during the reign of Diocletian (284-305AD). Here, we see a similar movement against Slavery with a distinct religious undertone that the Hard Times was a punishment from God for the use of slaves in the South. Clearly, there was a similar religious upheaval in Europe without the slavery issue.

The 1848 Revolutions were throughout Europe. The “mood” seems to have led to the American Civil War as well. Some historians have argued that the Revolutions of 1848 were largely caused by two factors: economic crisis and political crisis. Others have argued that social and ideological crises cannot be discounted. In many of the affected countries, nationalism was another catalyst for the revolutions. What we see on a global correlated basis were similar events that seemed to be inspired on a collective basis.

Over in China, we have the Taiping Rebellion was a revolt against the Qing dynasty in China, fought with religious conviction over regional economic conditions, and lasted from 1850 to 1864. Even if we turn to Japan, the Dutch had a monopoly on trade dealing with Japan.  In 1844 the Dutch sent a diplomatic mission urging them to open the country, but the rulers refused this suggestion. The question of dealing with foreigners was a rising problem in Japan at the same time. They called the foreigner Gaijin meaning really a foreign devil some have tomes down to outsiders or foreigners. It was in 1854 that the United States Navy Commodore Matthew C. Perry’s expedition opened Japan to global commerce through the implied threat of force. The Boshin War, also known as the Japanese Revolution or Japanese Civil War, was a civil war in Japan fought from 1868 to 1869 between forces of the ruling Tokugawa shogunate and a group seeking to seize political power in the name of the emperor.

It is fascinating that we see similar periods of political unrest for different reasons on a global scale. Was there just something in the water that made everyone go to war? Who knows. But we seem to be coming into this similar type of global problems between 2023 and 2032.

Dec 21 2022

Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature Re-Posted Dec 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong


QUESTION: Marty, we had an earthquake here in Northern California today that seems to be following your forecast building into 2028. Can you update your earthquake chart?

Thank you

Jeff

ANSWER: Here is the update. Socrates has already pulled that data down. Yes, the trend appears to be building into a serious cluster for 2028 which may exceed that of 1954. This chart is recording ONLY those quakes that are 6.0 or higher. There are numerous quakes in the 4 to 5 range. It was the 1906 Earthquake that set in motion the Panic of 1907 since the insurance companies were in NYC and the claims were in California. It was JP Morgan who stepped up to save the banks in NY and that became the model for how the Federal Reserve was created with 13 branches to manage the regional capital flows that resulted in the financial crisis in the aftermath of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake which was a 7.7 on the Richter Scale.

This chart presents the total number of quakes regardless of the magnitude. Here we can see that 1992 was the year with the greatest number of quakes irrespective of magnitude. This is a different perspective entirely. The top chart is what I have called the cluster perspective where we only took into account 6.0 or higher. This illustrates that just like market activity, earthquakes build in intensity. They produce clusters of magnitude. The next serious period should still be 2028.

Dec 20 2022

Socrates v Me


Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates Re-Posted Dec 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I have been following Socrates for quite a while. It certainly seems to provide the long-term view quite reliably. You said it has taught you. So I take it that is why it is AI because you did not precisely code it to do these things?

WK

ANSWER: I created Socrates to monitor everything. As a hedge fund manager, I could see how everything was connected. Read Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs for 1931 and it accurately described how a panic unfolds is led by a liquidity crisis the same as when Russian bonds collapsed in 1998 creating the fall of Long Term Capital Management.

Any mistakes are mine personally in the interpretation. That is what I mean by it has taught me a lot over the years. A lot of clients just rely on Socrates – not me personally. The arrays are probably one of the important aspects. Once again, it has nothing to do with my opinion. So many clients get familiar with it and apply their own interpretations.

Here is the array we published in July and we were touting the August/September period all year. We can see the violent thrust up and then down – the typical panic but over two months. It depends on the week it generally hits. It called for a Directional Change in October followed by another in November and then December made a new high and then retreated.

Socrates has done a good job. Once again, it is not me personally making these forecasts. As a human, we are all subject to error. Socrates is not perfect. The Global Market Watch is an ongoing project and I am stunned at how many different patterns it is coming up with. This demonstrates that complexity is an understatement. Below are the Global Market Watch reports for the 1932 low on a weekly and monthly level which was the week of July 4th, 1932.  We can see that it is not perfect. When it is saying a “New Pattern Forming” it means this is a new pattern not yet in the database. The number of patterns is approaching 100,000. Nevertheless, it did pick the 1932 low correctly. Not every day into that low. Thus, it is not a trading tool, but something to just alert you to pay attention. Nothing is ever INFALLIBLE.

Dec 19 2022

Panic Cycle & the Deep State


Armstrong Economics Blog/Press Re-Posted Dec 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Once more I am asking:
In practical terms, when a Panic Cycle appears, which are the factors that will help us to determine if the movement will be up or down please?
Thank you for answering.
SM

QUESTION #2: Your Panic Cycle is remarkable and your forecast on Ukraine before 2014 warrants putting you on the front page of every newspaper. Do you think the fact that ________ goes out of its way to find people who will say what your model has and never refer to you as being part of the whole disinformation game? I tend to trust them less and less for never crediting your computer even once as part of the whole cancel culture. What is your view on this silence?

ANSWER: A Panic Cycle, more often than not, can be an outside reversal meaning it can penetrate the previous low, turn around, and penetrate the previous high. It can also be a huge move in one direction. They tend to be events that are a surprise typically engulfed in some news. It is hard to come up with the fundamentals well in advance. But the computer was picking up the 2008 crash as far back as 1999. I took this array from our old site off of the Wayback machine.

We published the computer forecast in 2013 that had pinpointed Ukraine as the place where World War III would begin. That was one year before the 2014 revolution. The ONLY people to call for an interview on that forecast was RT from Russia. That says a lot. No one social media site nor even one mainstream news outlet ever bothered to can to ask how could this computer do that.

It should be obvious as we move into a Panic Cycle. If a market is rising, be on guard and turn to the Weekly and Monthly levels to see if there will be a big crash or an abrupt breakout. Trying to explain that 2007-2009 would be a major crash was rather simple as you got closer.  The very day of the high in the ECM was the precise day of the high in the Shiller Real Estate Index.  The Panic Cycle Target of 2010.29 was the precise day that Greece applied for emergency loans from the IMF. It should have been obvious going into that from 2002 that it would have been a crash.

Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle can be an OUTSIDE REVERSAL meaning it can make a new low and high during the same timing interval. Here is Weekly gold. There the Panic Cycle for the week of 04/18/22 was a high as well as a big move in one direction. Note that the top Composite or aggregate was a turning point. This helped to define that it would be a high since the market was rallying into it. Take note that the Directional Change target for the Week of 05/16 produced the low also because it coincided with the target for a turning point on the top line. Note that the next Directional Change was 06/06/22 and that was the highest closing with the next week being an outside reversal to the downside.

Insofar as to why other sites refuse to report the success of Socrates or the mainstream press, a lot of people write in asking if the same site ignores our forecasts and will go out of their way to tout someone else are really part of the undercover proxy war of the government against the free press. I cannot confirm or deny that view, but indeed a lot of people write in question if they are the same thing that is now being exposed with the corruption at Twitter and the government-controlled Wikipedia. Some emails have pointed out that they jump on claiming this breakthrough in cold fusion, but refuse to report on how our computer has projected so many things years ahead of time and could save the world if you got rid of the corrupt politicians and deep state.

As I have explained, the Constitution is a NEGATIVE restraint upon exclusive government. This is how the government has been using social media and mainstream media to cancel people, and ignore others, doing what would be unconstitutional if the Deep State did it directly. So you may be right. If they go out of their way to find someone else, perhaps they too are getting their orders from Washington DC. Guess we need Musk to buy them out too.

The computer had targeted 2014 for the start of the war. This is me outlining that 3 years in advance at the 2011 World Economic Conference. Some people judge various sites and newspapers that constantly ignore reporting on any of these forecasts as really just part of the Deep State no matter what they pretend to be. After what Musk has exposed, you have to question any of them these days.

Dec 7 2022

Futility of Price Controls


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Dec 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT FROM HUNGARY: Dear Marty,
You were correct again. Price controls do not work in the long run. The Hungarian government introduced a price cap on gasoline and diesel a few months ago, but a few hours ago this evening they had to let it go(they “tried everything in their power to help but the damn bureaucrats in Brussels who voted for the sanctions”.etc etc.).

The holiday season, panic buying, no gas another nail into the trust in our government’s coffin.
Marty these people really have no clue what the hell they’re doing. We have several food products that also have price controls: Wheat, sugar, eggs, etc. And interestingly supermarkets simply stop selling them or they sell brown sugar (no price control) instead of white sugar (price controlled, the maximum amount you can purchase in one go is 3kg i believe). When will they learn (not admit) or at least stop blaming others for their own brain-dead decisions?

I honestly hope that whatever the hell comes after 2032 will be better than this nonsense.
Thanks for all you do Marty. Keep up the fight, and get some well-needed rest during the holidays. I reckon you’re getting more phone calls than usual…
All the best,
RH

ANSWER: You know the most astonishing fact is that this was not even my personal opinion. All one need do is consult history. NEVER has any attempt to freeze prices to prevent inflation EVER worked even once.

The Roman emperor Diocletian (284-305AD) tried to impose wage and price controls in an effort to prevent inflation that was soaring because of a collapse in confidence in the Roman government. The Edit on Maximum Prices was imposed during 201AD. It was an utter failure.

Even if we go back to the 4th century B.C., the Roman government bought corn (grain) and, in times of shortage, it re-sold it at a low fixed price to try to prevent inflation from shortages – as we have today. In 58BC, the Roman Senate went even further and granted every citizen free wheat. The politicians were trying to bribe the people as they are doing once again today. What happened was that the farmers began moving back to the city of Rome because they could live and eat without working – it was free. By the time Julius Caesar (100-44BC) crossed the Rubicon, one in three Romans was receiving government wheat. He was forced to create a census and found there were more people claiming welfare than there were possible people.

Those in government ALWAYS assume that since they possess a pen, they can write whatever law they desire and they will comply or be thrown in prison until they die. I was named FOREX Person of the Year in 2015 because we forecast the Euro/Swiss peg would break. I even met with the Swiss Central Bank and warned that the peg would break. I was told they would be able to hold it. I replied I think the odds are on my side since NOBODY in history has ever been able to do this. There was the British pound peh into the ERM the broking making Soros all his money. In 1997, there was the Asian Currency Crisis where all the pegs broke. then there was even Bretton Woods which was a fixed exchange rate that broke in 1971 and in 1973 I was called in for the first bank failure due to foreign exchange.

I have done my best trying to warn governments that they CANNOT fix currencies and even when they were forming the G5 with the Plaza Accord in 1985, I was called in and warned that lowering the dollar by 40% would lead to a major currency crisis and a crash by 1987. Never have they ever listened.

Perhaps, the ONLY time anyone in Europe or the United States than anyone in government ever listen was perhaps in 1997. They were starting the jawboning of the Yen for trade purposes once again. I wrote to Robert Rubin and he has Timothy Geithner respond who later became the Secretary of the Treasury. China has listened, but other than in 1997, I cannot say any central bank or government has EVER heeded my warnings that history is on my side – pegs NEVER work.

Dec 5 2022

Trading v Forecasts


Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecast Arrays Re-Posted Dec 5, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty; you should not be so hard on yourself. Nobody has tried harder than you to alter the outcome. Socrates is just unbeatable. I shared your hope that gold would have just cracked $1000 and that would have been a sling-sot up. But it stopped at $1045 and the reversals were elected and that was the end of that. As a long-term trader, I understood what you meant. I remember 1985 when gold just broke $300 and the leading gold analyst ___________ threw in the towel. You called that low and that’s when I started following your work. You weren’t just an analyst, you were a trader.

So ease up. You have done your best. As you said at the WEC, nobody has tried to defeat your own model as much as you, but you have always lost.

I for one hope you do Dubai in the Spring. It would be nice to see everyone in person again.

PD

REPLY: Oh, yes. I remember that trade. It takes a trader to understand why I said if gold could crack $1,000, it would then be propelled straight up into a slingshot. Perhaps one of the most important trading tools is that the market is like a pendulum. The further it swings in one direction, the fast it will be propelled in the opposite. That is why when bubble markets peak, the vast majority of the decline takes place in two to three  key time units thereafter. The failure of gold to have cracked that $1,000 psychological level is also when it has languished thereafter.

Here is the Array from October 1984. It called all the moves correctly and the major low was February with the Panic Cycle the very next month. The next temp high was on the next Directional Change in August 1985.

I have to admit, probably the one forecast of Socrates that really impressed me personally was the Array we published in 1999, which you can find on the Wayback Machine. It had targeted a Panic Cycle in 2008 – 10 years in ADVANCE! It was projecting the collapse globally of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis. Obviously, my personal comments are not forecasts. I cannot beat Socrates and nobody else can possibly beat it.

Trading observations are not forecasts. Even look at BitCoin Monthly. You see the standard 2-month decline, temp low, then the pendulum moves back in the opposite direction, but the power is diminished. The power is too strong on the decline side. These are just observations from being a trader. They are NOT the computer. So, yes, my comments are not forecasts but observations. The computer does the forecasting not me. Not even I can defeat Socrates.

Dec 2 2022

Secrets of the Universe


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Dec 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Martin –
Thank you for your efforts to write your discoveries down into publications so that they will be available for the benefit of civilization after you have passed on. I am very much looking forward the “The Geometry of Time”. Like many groundbreaking thinkers of the past, you may end up being someone who suffered resistance and exploitation during your lifetime for your ideas, but who was respected for their contribution long after. And if you are given an ear by governments when this debt crisis blossoms and their backs are finally against the wall, it wont hurt to have polished manuscripts of all your work, backed up by all the the historical evidence of its validity, to pass-out to them. In fact, that may be the point where you can, late in life, make you biggest lasting contribution. If governments, central banks, and economists would give real consideration to how historically accurate your analysis of cycles has been and to your solution to the debt crisis, and if there is by-then a large number of your publications of your legacy-knowledge in circulation, your work may finally grow from ‘cultish’ adoption to more widespread adoption.

That, IMHO, would be a good thing for everyone (and for their children to-come).

SC

REPLY: Thank you. I have learned over the years that I cannot change things. When I was called in back in 1985 and they were creating the G5 (now G20), at first I thought – Wow! I made it! Then you realize that after everyone testifies, they stand up and announce their predetermined conclusion. So I wrote to Reagan because the conclusions were nothing that anyone testified about. I was told that I went out of committee and I would never be called again. I replied, good! Who needs this!

Anyone who claims they advise the CIA or whatever, they do not listen. I have been called only because I wrote to Reagan and told them to screw off. The people they pay are just pawns. Every bill they pass needs some study and they tell you what the conclusion is today. They said back in 1985 if I was a “good boy” I could earn $5 million a year. I said no thanks.

Because I wrote to Reagan back in 1985, when the 1987 Crash took place they were forced to call me since our model forecasted that even right to the day – which was the ECM target.

Ever since we get called when they want the TRUTH rather than someone who will say whatever they need to keep the fees flowing.

Like Keynes, before the Great Depression, they considered his ideas as absurd. When it all comes crashing down, then, and only then, will they consider adopting the ECM and living with the cycle instead of fighting it. The Secret of the Universe is that absolutely EVERYTHING is cyclical.

I have three more books to finish. The Geometry of time, The ECM Book, and In the Blink of an Eye. Dealing with so many governments around the world over the past 40 years has indeed given me both a front-row seat and a unique perspective. All I can do is hope to pass this along for what comes after 2032 when we get to hit the Cntrl-Alt-Delete button on governmental structures and redesign this mess from scratch once again.