Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on September 13, 2022 | Sundance
We are in an abusive relationship with our own government. If you want a real-time example of how governmental bureaucracy fits into this statement, look no further than the footnote at the bottom of this article ¹cited from the BLS report today.
The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) has released the August inflation data today [DATA HERE] with a top line at 8.3 percent year over year. Unfortunately, things are unfolding exactly as we previously shared. [Modified Table 1 at left]
Despite the temporary drop in gasoline prices (-12%), the costs of food (+13.5%), electricity (+15.8%) and housing (+6.7%) are crushing U.S. consumers. The stock market is responding accordingly. We can only imagine the inflation data if the heavily weighted gasoline factor was not pushing overall toplines down. Estimation of inflation would be well over double digits.
Keep in mind, as you read this review the price of the current harvest (prior field costs) is only right now coming into the food supply chain.
Food inflation is running at its highest rate since 1979 (+11.4%) and it will go higher as the third wave in this sector hits.
To give you an example, margarine increased in price 7% in August alone, that’s an annualized rate of 94% [Table 2 details]. Flour is also on pace for another 22.8% increase right as the holiday baking season begins.
We cannot eat gold, silver or durable goods. Electricity, home heating (natural gas), food and housing costs are priorities right now. Main Street USA is being crushed by Joe Biden overall economic and energy policies. It’s bad now, and going to get worse – much worse, as the third wave of food inflation has only just begun.
¹Before sharing a MSM perspective I want to draw your attention to the BLS notation for 2023. This innocuous footnote tells us just how manipulative the governmental bureaucracies are:
In order to give the statistical appearance of things being better than they are, the BLS is going to reset their weighting for the CPI to only compare against 2021. This is being done with purpose to give the illusion next year that things are not as bad. 2021 was when Joe Biden’s inflation policies first surfaced. By comparing consumer prices to the timing when those prices first increased, the scale of future price increases will be statistically diminished. We are in an abusive relationship with our government.
(CNBC) – Inflation rose more than expected in August as rising shelter and food costs offset a drop in gas prices, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.
The consumer price index, which tracks a broad swath of goods and services, increased 0.1% for the month and 8.3% over the past year. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, CPI rose 0.6% from July and 6.3% from the same month in 2021.
Economists had been expecting headline inflation to fall 0.1% and core to increase 0.3%, according to Dow Jones estimates. The respective year-over-year forecasts were for 8% and 6% gains.
Energy prices fell 5% for the month, led by a 10.6% slide in the gasoline index. However, those declines were offset by increases elsewhere.
The food index increased 0.8% in August and shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, jumped 0.7% and are up 6.2% from a year ago. (read more)
For readers who do advanced preparation to offset prices. THINK BEEF right now, you will thank me four months from now. If you see a deal now, buy it and freeze it now. Anticipate retail ground beef costs be somewhere around $10 to $15/lb by spring to mid 2023 perhaps even higher. Also remember, processed foods will increase in price at twice the rate of the fresh food sector. Both fresh and processed food prices will rise, but the increased costs associated with the food processing will double the price.
QUESTION: I’m a subscriber and I read you every day. Your weekend article 9/10/22 that a gold standard will not work as gold fluctuates just as Fiat currencies do. Then what in your opinion is the proper currency model, or can we just simply keep printing dollars endlessly because for now, we’re the least dirty of all the dirty shirts? If you’ve done an article or book on this please guide me to it. Thanks and keep up the great work with such accurate insights.
CG
ANSWER: Don’t mix the problem of the quantity of money with what is actually money. They are two separate issues. The theory that inflation is tied to the quantity of money truly extends back to when metal was the money supply. The sudden discovery of America led to a huge wave of inflation in Europe. The FISCAL MISMANAGEMENT of Spain led to its total collapse. They were borrowing against the next shipload of gold coming in from the New World. They would not wait even to get it in, and they were so excited to spend it before it arrived.
Spain became the richest nation in Europe thanks to the wanderings of Columbus. Nonetheless, the amazing Decline and Fall of Spain is perhaps the greatest lesson if someone wishes to write “How NOT to Manage Government For Dummies.” The Spanish became both the richest nation and the greatest debtor, not that dissimilar from the United States, and succeeded in ending up as the poorest.
Spain became a serial defaulter beginning in 1557, followed by 1570, 1575, 1596, 1607, and 1647 ending in a 3rd world status without hyperinflation. Their economic model was one of conquest and plunder rather than developing domestic industry and a viable economy. The lesson to be learned from Spain is precisely what Adam Smith wrote in his 1776, “Wealth of Nations.”
The first such default that is definitively recorded took place at least in the 4th century BC when ten out of thirteen Greek municipalities in the Attic Maritime Association defaulted on loans from the Delos Temple of Apollo.
The endless increase in the supply of dollars is not the problem. That is like blaming the gun for killing someone rather than the person with the gun. The issue has ALWAYS been the fiscal mismanagement of those in power.
This is an entirely SEPARATE QUESTION from what is money!
Our problem is NOT that money is paper. The problem is those in charge of the government. In China, cowrie shells were once money. In Rome, the earliest form of money was cattle. When bronze began to replace cattle, you see this Roman Aes Signatum with the image of a cow that was the symbol of money. The Egyptians had paper money, but they were receipts for grain storage which would change hands. There was no fiscal mismanagement.
To trade with the outside world, the Egyptians did not have their own coinage. They produced silver imitations of the Athenian Owl — Tetradrachms.
There have been many two-tier monetary systems throughout history. Even South Africa had the Financial Rand for international use and the Rand, which was restricted to domestic. Russia, after 1991, had some shares that traded as ADRs on foreign markets, which were 10 to 20x that of the shares traded on the Russian exchange, which were restricted to Russian investment. That is what the foreigners were abusing setting up shop in Moscow and then buying local shared and lobbying companies like Gazprom to adopt Western accounting standards to make a 30-fold profit while claiming they were some white knight concerned about corruption — all total propaganda.
Even going back further to the Minoans who created the Bronze Age, the ingots used in trade were made in the form of sheepskin, which had been money in the ancient Greek world.
Gold was reserved for the pharaohs, so naturally, others wanted it. The Bible refers to the weighing of the silver in Genesis 23:16: “Abraham listened to Ephron; and Abraham weighed out for Ephron the silver which he had named in the hearing of the sons of Heth, four hundred shekels of silver, commercial standard.” Even a “Deutsche Mark” referred to a “mark of silver,” which was a weight. The same in Britain. The British “Pound” was one pound of silver .925.
Our entire weight system remains that which was established in ancient Rome, with an ounce being 28.34 grams and a troy ounce being 31.0 grams. The Romans started with even a coin that was called the “uncia” during the Republic period.
Therefore, the problem with a “gold standard” is the goldbugs keep suggesting that gold would be “fixed” in value. They will only blow up in everyone’s face. There have been many crises.
Riots against bankers have been very common, especially when international lending has led to economic chaos. When Edward II (1307-1327) of England was captured, riots broke out in London. The mobs attacked the Italian bankers who had extracted huge interest payments from England. The famous Italian bankers at the time were the Bardi family. The English mob attacked their London office in 1326, illustrating the age of nationalism and protectionism that was festering during the 14th century. As much as things appear to change, they remain very much the same at the root core
Those who think the gold standard brings stability must also believe in the Tooth Fairy. There was a huge CONTAGION that became widespread because of debasements during the 14th century. The silver to gold ratio was disrupted everywhere in Europe thanks to French debasements. The ratio stood at 13.1 in Florence compared to 12:1 in France during 1316 and was trying, like the Silver Democrats of the 19th US Century, to overvalue the price of silver. By driving the price of silver even higher relative to gold, they forced the ratio in France down to 5:1 in 1343, setting off riots in Florence. Silver was being drained from the local economy flowing to France, where it was over-valued, and this created a sharp recession in Florence with the shortage of money (silver) for domestic use.
Why? For you see, wages and local commerce were conducted in silver. Gold was used only for international trade. Driving the price of silver higher raised the cost of production, which simultaneously reduced the value of trade and even outstanding loans made to individuals and sovereigns alike. This caused a drop in production and rising unemployment. Hence, the first riot came in 1343, whereby the French debasement had contributed to the impatience of the population. Switzerland did the same thing pegging the franc to the euro because the franc was rising, and manufacturers threatened to leave. Hence, Switzerland has imported massive inflation, raising the cost of living and doing business there to TWICE that of the United States.
The Political-Economic Revolt of 1343 in Florence may have had its roots in a corrupt government, as we are also seeing in Europe and Ukraine, but it was set in motion by the economic events driven by over-valuing silver. There was an uprising of workers that erupted on September 24, 1343. The people stormed the palaces of the rich merchant-banking families located in the Oltrarno quarter of the city that was on the left bank of the Arno River. This was where the palaces of the Bardi, Frescobaldi, Rossie, Nerli, Mannelli, and many others were located. The rioters barricaded the bridges, and on the 25, they captured the palaces of the Rossi and Frescobaldi. They also stormed the Bardi palace forcing the members of that family to abandon their fortress and flee for their lives. The mob then sacked the Bardi Palace and set it on fire. Contemporary accounts tell us that the Bardi lost that day 60,000 florins in the destruction that took place in Florence – truly a vast amount of money that would be in the tens of millions of dollars today.
The Florence monetary system was a two-tier system whereby gold was used ONLY for settling international trade, and silver was used for domestic commerce. Those who simply think because coins were precious metals and thus were not “fiat,” yielding some land of Utopia where the value of money was constant while assets rose and fell, cannot grasp the simple concept that assets rise and fall ONLY in terms of purchasing power of the currency. This is true regardless of what you use for the money, be it gold or St Patrick’s discovery of slave girls that were the unit of account for money in Ireland.
No matter what is money, it CAN NOT be fixed in value. It must be allowed to float, for there are always trends that shift back and forth. Therefore, the relentless creation of money is not because they are paper dollars. As I said, you are blaming the gun rather than the shooter. This is fiscal mismanagement created by Marxism, where the politicians no longer know how to run for office without bribing the people for their votes. This is the system that is completely doomed, the very same as communism fell. It’s just our turn.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 12, 2022 | Sundance
Mid-August CTH noted, “amid all of the headline warnings about inflation and prices of essential products, CTH notes that if we are to continue waiting about six months, we would see a massive backlog of unsold goods and as a consequence the prices of non-essential durable goods would begin a rapid decline. That exact scenario is about to unfold.” {link}
Today the world’s second largest appliance manufacturer, Electrolux, announced a collapse of corporate earnings -the result of the western alliance economic contraction- leading to major cost cutting and future incentive programs. [Announcement Link, emphasis mine]
(Electrolux) – […] Market demand for core appliances in Europe and the US so far in the third quarter is estimated to have decreased at a significantly accelerated pace compared with the second quarter, driven by the impact of high inflation on consumer durables purchases and low consumer confidence. High retailer inventory levels have amplified the impact of the slowdown in consumer demand.
In combination with supply chain imbalances resulting in significant production inefficiencies and increased costs, the third quarter earnings for the Group are expected to decline significantly compared to the second quarter 2022 also excluding the one-time cost to exit the Russia market. This has been driven mainly by Europe and North America. Business Area North America is expected to report an operating loss in the third quarter exceeding the loss in the second quarter.
Since market demand for 2023 is expected to continue to be weak in both regions, the Board has today decided to initiate a Group-wide cost reduction program addressing both variable and structural costs. The program, which starts immediately, will focus on reducing variable costs, with special attention to eliminating cost inefficiencies in our supply chain and production. The structural cost reductions will primarily take place in Europe and North America. (more)
Keep in mind, this is not necessarily a collapse of total global economic activity; what we are seeing is a collapse of western nation economic activity that is impacting the rest of the world. A great economic fracturing is taking place as the western nations intentionally shrink their economy. The supplier nations are feeling the consequences.
Keep in mind, South Korean factory output is now negative (electronics etc). European factory output is now negative (industrial equipment). Japanese factory output has dropped dramatically, and U.S. factory output has stalled. All of these issues overlay the statements by Maersk that shipping is not needed.
The western economies are contracting in response to the collective energy policies of the Build Back Better climate change agenda, and the high cost of energy that comes from stopping energy production.
Energy production in western nations has been slowed or stopped (Build Back Better). Western nation inflation is being driven by higher energy costs as a result of less energy products being produced, oil, coal, gas. Western banking groups have raised interest rates to slow down the economic engines to meet the drop in energy production.
All of this is being done with intent, purpose and control. This is a managed decline.
California sent out an emergency public notification to warn residents that the power grid was under a strain. Since people are likely unwilling to turn off their power during the summer heat, California is concocting “de-energization” plans. Simply put, California plans to temporarily turn off the power grid in the name of public safety.
This is the same state that plans to eliminate gas-powered cars yet does not have the capability to maintain the current electrical grid. Companies are already creating advice for residents to “get ready for a PSPS” (Public Safety Power Shutoff). PG&E warned that some residents may be without power for “several days.” Their advice seems quite dystopian. Those who will DIE without power due to medical conditions may receive an exemption to power their medical devices.
Several days without electricity will cripple small businesses, and large businesses will also suffer. Those who may need but do not qualify for an exemption could die. They are recommending that people use camping stoves and outdoor charcoal grills to cook, but that is not an option for many. The elderly are especially vulnerable without power. Those without power banks will be unable to charge their phones and will be isolated from the world. Kids will be unable to attend school. They are asking people to power their EVs, but you can only go so far on one charge. It will come as no surprise if they shut off electricity for the poorest areas first.
Perhaps we could have funded this project instead of sending over $120 billion to Ukraine. California is still pushing to end the use of fossil fuels but look at the situation they are in currently.
Well, the Goldbugs are out in force claiming that Putin is creating a Moscow World Standard for gold. These people will never learn that their dream of some fixed gold standard has always collapsed throughout history. They have never played in the big leagues and consequently, they do not even understand the rules of the game. It’s like standing on the street corner and seeing a guy drive by in a black limo and lament life is not fair for they should be like him without ever knowing what he is really all about.
Yes, gold coins existed since the 8th century BC. However, it was NEVER a gold standard for if that was even attempted, it would have collapsed as did Bretton Woods, the 19997 Asian Currency Crisis, the Swiss-Euro Peg, or the collapse of the British pound in the ERM Crisis that made Soros a fortune. NEVER throughout all the recorded financial history of the world was there EVER a “gold standard” as they keep telling people. Gold floating up and down with the economy the same as the dollar does today – it was always a floating exchange rate monetary system.
There were periods when the gold coinage of Byzantium was debased especially during the Great Monetary Crisis of 1092. The coins that were once gold, we debased to the point they became silver.
Even the ratio of silver to gold was never constant. There were times when new discoveries of silver poured from the mines leading to the decline in purchasing power of the silver. Likewise, there were times when gold became more common than silver. Even during the California Gold Rush of 1849, the purchasing power of gold declined sharply because there was too much of it coming around.
So why do their relentless theories of a return to a gold standard fail and only end up with people losing their shirts, pants, their home, and sometimes their wives? The answer is SIMPLE, yet they cannot escape their own beliefs that have turned gold into a religion. There can NEVER be any FIX EXCHANGE RATE regardless of whether it is gold, silver, bronze, paper dollars, or sea shells – yes they too were money along with cattle and slave girls.
For you see, there is such a thing as a BUSINESS CYCLE. They simply refuse to understand the basic monetary theory or the history of money, which had been many things for over 6,000 years. It does not matter what the money might be at any point in time, it will decline in value as assets rise which we call inflation, and as people need cash and assets decline, we call that a recession. That has ALWAYS taken place regardless of the century, what was money at the time, or the culture. This is WHY there can NEVER be a “gold standard” that will ever survive for that is COMMUNISM where you prevent a recession by eliminating freedom. For you see, Marx tried to stop this business cycle so he confiscated all private assets and even that failed to prevent the business cycle from winning.
Even Fed Chairman during the collapse of Bretton Woods explained its epitaph. The business cycle ALWAYS wins! That simply means gold will rise and fall in value BECAUSE of the business cycle. It is not some scheme to manipulate it. That is part of the natural cycle.
Gold has been around for a long time. In Egypt, they had the first paper money. There were warehouse receipts for the grain you would deposit. Gold was seen as the tears of the god Ra, the sun god. The only person who was worthy to touch it was the Pharaoh. The Celts used gold in ring form, not coins. But throughout the entire history of gold, it rose and fell and had no such FIXED value.
So, as the goldbugs are pushing the latest that Russia is now establishing a gold standard, they do not understand what is really going on. Russia has been turning from Europe and America toward Asia expanding its markets and its economic power even to include India and Iran. Putin has persuaded Middle Eastern oil and gas producers to turn to Asia. Some have accused me of advising Putin in his latest speech everything he said and what he is doing is coming from our models. I do not advise Putin personally. Of course, we have many readers in Russia as well. I was even called by RT about how our model predicted Ukraine would be the hot spot one year in advance.
Biden has destroyed the world economy. I believe that even Bill Browder may be just a front for the CIA pushing this agenda that is actually undermining the West – not Russia. The world economy has been divided in two and it will NEVER return to normal. Putin is very smart. Probably far smarter than any other world leader at this time. Both Russia and China see the world in cycles. In Europe and America, we see the world as linear and that is our downfall.
Lady Margaret Thacher spoke at our World Economic Conference in 1996. She understood about cycles. As she told me that Tony Blair would win well before there were any polls, she said it was “just time.” The downfall of the West is that we do not see the world in cycles. It is Just Time, for the rein of the United States to come to an end.
Even Bill Clinton told Yeltsin after meeting Putin, “He’s a very smart man.” Putin sees the rising power of Asia in what is their Industrial Revolution. Biden’s insane sanctions against Russia have strengthened the bond with China, opposite of what Nixon did. Thanks to Biden’s sanctions, Russia is forging an alternative world order to that of the World Economic Form and its directive to Western leaders. Putin’s move to create a Moscow gold exchange is simply because he cannot sell gold anymore in the West. Putin, hopefully, will not be that stupid and try to fix a value of gold that would only ensure the collapse of Asia and Russia. Gold must be free to rise and fall as it has done for thousands of years.
Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 | Sundance
This is good to see and a little funny at the same time. Since 2015 CTH has been outlining how the MAGA working-class movement is in direct alignment with the values and priorities of Latinos and Hispanics.
More Latinos support President Trump than supported any republican modern in history. In the bigger picture, Latino voters support President Trump for the same reasons the Amish voters support President Trump, the absence of political correctness. WATCH:
Yet another head of the financial system is coming out and warning that a recession is inevitable. Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing echoed the words of BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey and blamed the coming recession on the war in Ukraine. “We will no longer be able to avert a recession in Germany. Yet we believe that our economy is resilient enough to cope well with this recession — provided the central banks act quickly and decisively now,” Sewing said.
Going a step further, Sewing blamed China along with Russia. “When it comes to dependencies, we also have to face the awkward question of how to deal with China. Its increasing isolation and growing tensions, especially between China and the United States, pose a considerable risk for Germany,” he warned. Around 12% of German imports and 8% of exports come and go from China. Sewing would like to see a declining dependency on China rather than strengthening their relationship.
Neither China nor Russia are to blame for Germany’s situation. Russia was simply a diversion to draw attention away from the collapse of the European economy. Negative interest rates beginning in 2014 wiped out pension funds and proved that the central bank was not thinking long-term. COVID restrictions killed the supply chain, and Germany’s insistance in backing Ukraine eliminated what could have been a lucrative pipeline. Had the pipeline gone through, Europe would not have an energy crisis! Ever since COVID, we have witnessed a rising trend of civil unrest. Politicians have been working hard to create war with Russia deliberately, all cloaked in their real objective of controlling the planet.
When the energy crisis is unavoidable for the average person and the standard of living declines, the politicians will point to Russia and China. The decline began long before Russia lined the border of Ukraine, and China is demonized for simply existing. They would never blame their fiscal mismanagement or detrimental policies for the undoable damage they have created. If Germany falls, all of Europe will follow.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 9, 2022 | Sundance
Every institution of the JoeBama administration is filled with climate change ideologues. Never is that more abundantly clear than a U.S. Treasury Secretary who celebrates the future of the U.S. economy becoming “dependent on the wind and the Sun“. {Direct Rumble Link}
[Transcript] – “Our plan – powered by the Inflation Reduction Act – represents the largest investment in fighting climate change in our country’s history. It will put us well on our way toward a future where we depend on the wind, sun, and other clean sources for our energy. We will rid ourselves from our current dependence on fossil fuels.” (link)
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To understand the scale of the ideological effort, review this earlier statement in her prepared remarks, “In markets where we could not help lower prices by expanding supply, we have aimed to mitigate the pain directly, through cost relief.” The admission here is that ideologically the Biden administration cannot expand energy supplies to lower energy prices without compromising their climate change mission.
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