Category End of Fossil Fuel

Apr 14 2023

Only 32% of Lenders Profited on Mortgages in 2022


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Apr 13, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The talking heads have been warning of a housing crash, but that is not what Socrates indicated. The 30-year fixed rate is around 6.89% at the time of this writing. Housing costs continue to rise, causing the costs of servicing mortgage debt to rise. Housing inventory is limited, and a recent report explains why we saw mass layoffs in the banking sector. The demand is still there and it is a sellers’ market. Cash is king when it comes to real estate for those who can afford it. Mortgage lenders are in trouble. In fact, only 32% of mortgage companies were profitable in 2022 compared to 98% in 2020.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) recently announced that independent mortgage banks and subsidiaries of chartered banks lost around $301 for every mortgage they financed in 2022. This marks a 113% decline from the prior year’s average and the first-time banks are seeing losses on mortgage products. This is not 2008 when banks handed out loans to anyone who asked.

“The rapid rise in mortgage rates over a relatively short period of time, combined with extremely low housing inventory and affordability challenges, meant that both purchase and refinance volume plummeted,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The stellar profits of the previous two years dissipated because of the confluence of declining volume, lower revenues, and higher costs per loan.” Production costs reached a high of $10,624 per loan last year. Productivity was 1.5 loans originations per production employee, down from 2.5 per employee the year prior, and an indicator of why we are seeing layoffs in the banking sector. No one is refinancing at these rates either and most chose a fixed rate, as we saw what happened in 2008 with adjustable costs.

First-time mortgages reached an all-time high of $323,780 last year, up from $298,324, the largest annual increase since the MBA began collecting data. The increased cost of loans increased the cost of serving mortgages. The MBA expects volume to decline further in 2023 before rallying in 2024 and 2025. The banking crisis may lead to banks and lenders selling off their mortgage debts once they cannot afford to service the debt. Again, the housing crisis today is not relative to the 2008 crash.

Apr 12 2023

When It Comes to Economics, Trust Your Instincts


Posted originally on the CTH on April 11, 2023 | Sundance 

A few days after the terror attack of 9-11-01, someone in media asked George W. Bush what Americans can do to help.  Dubya’s response drew instant criticism, because he asked people to go shopping… but in the big picture, President Bush knew what could happen if the economic freeze continued.

When it comes to politics and economic outlooks, trust your instincts.  The economics of the ‘thing’ is always the reason the ‘thing’ exists or does not exist.

When you are looking at economic news, always remind yourself… the people producing the news have a vested interest in maintaining a very specific outlook.  The motive behind what Dubya said in September of 2001, pertains every bit as much today.  Economic outcomes can topple entire governments.

Remember, this current ‘supply-side energy policy driven inflation‘, a purposeful effort to shrink the economy and yet tenuously maintain control, has never happened before.  The people behind the Build Back Better agenda are, in reality, experimenting with a theory. DATA…

(ISM) – The Institute for Supply Management’s PMI contracted for the fifth straight month in March registering 46.3, the lowest level since May 2020. Any reading below 50.0 indicates contraction.  The employment index declined by 2.2 percent to a level of 46.9.

Most of the impediments to manufacturing growth — such as shortages and lockdowns — have subsided, said Tim Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing survey committee, with the exception of pricing. ISM’s pricing index fell below 50 in March but at 49.2 remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.

“The beginning of the second half may not be the beginning of a recovery,” said Fiore. “Manufactures reduced headcounts because of uncertainty of demand and over-ordering has burned off. Demand isn’t coming back quickly enough to support current headcounts.”

All these trends were prevalent in March, he added, although the PMI has only lost 3 to 4 points since October 2022.

Back in December, ISM panelists anticipated an uptick in demand by the beginning of Q2. “We thought this recovery would be lumpy, but I think this indicates the recovery has been delayed,” Fiore said. “I think we are talking about expansion toward the end of Q3—it’s unlikely we’ll see a lot of activity in the summer.” (read more)

It’s not a recovery now, it will not be a recovery this year.

On a per unit basis, we have been in an economic contraction cycle since mid 2021.  However, because economic outcomes are measured in dollars, the shrinking unit output, and the fewer units being sold at wholesale and retail level, is being hidden.

Inflation has hidden serious drops in unit purchases…. and fewer unit purchases mean lowered production output…. and lowered production output means less production is needed.

(CNBC SURVEY) – Inflation, economic instability and a lack of savings have an increasing number of Americans feeling financially stressed. 

Some 70% of Americans admit to being stressed about their personal finances these days and a majority — 52% — of U.S. adults said their financial stress has increased since before the Covid-19 pandemic began in March 2020, according to a new CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey conducted in partnership with Momentive.

Anxious and uncertain about whether they can get a better handle on their money, some may be intimidated by the prospect of creating a budget or unsure of where to stash their cash to get the highest returns. Others may be wondering how to begin saving for retirement when they’ve gotten off to a late start. 

“People are worried that the money they’ve saved won’t last and are worried they’re going to have to lean more on their credit cards and other sources of debt just to get by,” said Bruce McClary, a senior vice president at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. (read more) 

If you want to know what’s going on in the larger U.S. economy, just look around you.

Don’t turn on the television and read the newspaper to see what is happening in the U.S. economy for your purchasing or life planning.  Just look around you.

Look at restaurants and bars.  Do you see continued high-volume business or not.

Look at the grocery stores. Do you see continued optimism, or not.

Look at the malls and shopping centers. Do you see foot traffic, or not.

Look at the real estate in your neighborhood – your local view.  Do you see prices going up or going down.

That’s the reality of the economy as it impacts you….. and critically, that’s the reality of the economy nationwide.

When it comes to data and economics, do not let the media created ‘illusion of the thing‘ cloud your ability to see the reality of the thing.

Trust your instincts.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=zy21Ti0PxUA%3Ffeature%3Doembed
Apr 6 2023

Tucker Carlson Outlines the Ramification of Trillions in U.S. Treasury Bonds No Longer Needed as Global Securities


Posted originally on the CTH on April 5, 2023 Sundance

For his opening monologue and first interview tonight, Fox News host Tucker Carlson outlined the ramification of non-western nations now trading in alternative currencies to the U.S. dollar.   {Direct Rumble Link Here]  As the dollar diminishes in value, and as an outcome of Biden using U.S. treasury bonds as part of the sanction regime against Russia, various non-western nations now perceive holding dollars as exposing themselves to risk.

Carlson is joined by Luke Gromen who accurately notes the dollar as a global trade currency may continue, but foreign nations holding U.S. treasury bonds as an asset will likely start contracting.  The result of U.S. treasury bonds returning after maturity with no repurchase, would be an inability of the U.S. to borrow against their sale. This could, perhaps likely will, severely diminish the amount of money the U.S. congress can spend.  WATCH:

None of this should come as a surprise to those who have paid attention. Factually, in March of last year, one month after the Russian sanctions were announced, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Deputy Managing Director said the sanctions against Russia are likely to undermine the US dollar’s global dominance as a trade currency.  Everyone could see this coming.

(Inside Paper) – March 2022 – […] “The dollar would remain the major global currency even in that landscape, but fragmentation at a smaller level is certainly quite possible,” Gopinath said in an interview with the Financial Times.  She went on to say that some countries have already begun to renegotiate the currency in which they are paid for trade.

According to Gopinath, the drastic restrictions imposed by Western countries in response to Russia’s military operation in Ukraine may result in the formation of small currency blocs based on trade between individual groups of countries.  Furthermore, the use of currencies other than the dollar or the euro in global trade would result in a further diversification of central banks’ reserve assets. (read more)

The efforts of NATO and the western alliance to crush the Russian currency have failed.  The Russian ruble currency has jumped back from the sanctions and is now even stronger than before the sanctions were put into place.

With China and India supporting ongoing trade with Russia, and with Saudi Arabia responding coldly to the U.S. working on a deal with Iran for nuclear weapons, the geopolitical strategy of NATO, G7 and the proverbial western alliance increasingly looks like it will backfire.

Yellow Team -vs- Gray Team: Remember, China just brokered a deal to lessen hostilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The fulcrum of that agreement was economics.

Meanwhile in North America, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador has said he was not willing to join the energy suicide pact pushed by Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau…. A policy break in the trilateral relationship which suddenly, and not coincidentally, aligns with the timing to make Mexico a pariah to the U.S. vis-a-vis a renewed media push on the drug cartel narrative.

BIG PICTURE NOT BEING DISCUSSED – The western politicians followed the climate change instructions of the WEF multinational corporations and banks (Build Back Better) and post-pandemic immediately started reducing energy development. The central bankers then began raising interest rates to shrink the economies of the same western nations to the scale of the now diminished energy production.

The raising of interest rates is now hitting the national and multinational banks impacted by government policy that was following WEF orders. Now the western politicians are stepping in with the government controlled central banks to backstop the national banks and multinationals. Can you see the dynamic?

Team yellow is suffering the consequences of their own ideological policy as enacted. Team grey is not going to help team yellow get out of a crisis team yellow created, which was intended to hurt team grey.

…. And we continue watching.

Apr 4 2023

The End of the Petrodollar?


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Apr 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Another oil deal has been initiated without the use of the dollar. The India Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) announced that their latest trade deal with Malaysia would be settled in Indian rupees. “This initiative by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is aimed at facilitating the growth of global trade and to support the interests of the global trading community in Indian Rupees (INR),” the formal statement noted.

Indian has benefitted from the West’s distraction from the Ukraine war. The RBI is allowing 18 counties to open Vostro accounts and has been attracting new deals in trade and manufacturing. New Delhi and Moscow have strengthened their relationship as India is not imposing sanctions.  The Indian Commerce Ministry said its five-year plan is to “encourage” the use of the rupee on an international scale, while also planning to expand exports $2 trillion by 2030. Trading in rupees will also allow India to save on conversion spreads and limit the country’s dependence on the volatile dollar.

The BRICs treaty (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) remains strong and oil giants Saudi Arabia and Iran would like to join the partnership. The Saudis stated at the beginning of the year that they were open to settling trade in currencies other than the USD. “There are no issues with discussing how we settle our trade arrangements, whether it is in the US dollar, whether it is the euro, whether it is the Saudi riyal,” Al-Jadaan said during Davos. As we have seen in recent months, Saudi Arabia is aligning itself with China over the US.

The Vietnam war and other government missteps made it impossible for the US to maintain the fixed price of gold established under Bretton Woods. The USD relative to gold fell as the supply of dollars grew, pushing Nixon to abandon the Bretton Woods system entirely. US government debt was rapidly rising as confidence in the dollar plummeted. America needed an enticing way to sell its debt, and that was when Nixon convinced Saudi Arabia, the largest crude exporter, to purchase Treasurys in dollars in exchange for military aid. Hence the “petrodollar” was born. The creation of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) only further enhanced the dollar’s dominance in energy purchases.

Here we are yet again amid another war and a high budget deficit. The Saudis no longer need protection from America, and siding with Western interests would be a deterrent to its international deals with countries in the BRICs alliance and some in the OPEC+. Despite the green agenda, the world cannot operate without oil. The major oil exporters are now aligning and cutting out the US as their middleman.

Apr 4 2023

Masks Now Embedded in Japanese Culture


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Apr 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Comment: You know, mask wearing in japan was officially ended 5 weeks ago. And there has been no change of practice whatsoever. Mask wearing continues at close to 100pct.

Especially among young people mask wearing seems to be here to stay, possibly forever. Somewhere a psychologist will write a book about this phenomenon. Never in my life could I have imagine that the great nation of japan would adopt this practice like people wearing shoes. People driving in their cars on their own are wearing masks for god Sake. Mask wearing is now the primary method of signaling that the wearer is careful, thoughtful and considerate of others.

Reply: The pandemic will go down as the greatest mass social experiment in history. Face masks have become an everyday essential item for most Japanese. Implementing the face mask mandate was seamless in Japan as masks for allergies and disease were already commonplace. Mask sales rose during flu outbreaks years before COVID, especially in high-density cities. Some people wore masks as a fashion accessory or to limit approachability in social interactions. A 2011 poll from News Post Seven found that 30% of those who wore masks did not cite health concerns.

It took three years, but the Japanese government no longer mandates masks. Yet, it has become embedded in the culture. The Japanese culture values respecting one’s community. The government has never admitted that masks did not prevent the spread of COVID in a meaningful way. Instead, politicians continue to wear masks at public appearances, and the prime minister is encouraging people to continue wearing masks around vulnerable individuals. “We are not forcing anyone to wear it or take it off,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters after the mandate ended. “I think there will be more occasions when I will take my mask off.” It is now seen as a respectful gesture for one’s neighbor.

Research institute Laibo conducted a study in February to determine why people are choosing to stay masked. Only 5.5% of 561 respondents said they would not wear a mask. Over half (50.2%) said that wearing a mask simply became a habit, while most (53.4%) said they are still afraid of catching the coronavirus. About 27.8% of respondents said they will wear their masks “unconditionally.”

Masks may have become a cultural norm in Japan. Everyone should have the ability to act on their own free will, but I suspect many feel the need to conform. The studies citing the ineffectiveness of mask usage have been swept under the rug. As the original commenter stated, masks now signal that the wearer is considerate of others. If only the government would come out and let the people know it is safe for both them and their neighbors to breathe in the air.

Apr 3 2023

Here Comes Pain – OPEC+ Makes Surprise Oil Production Cut Announcement, The Global Cleaving Continues


Posted originally on the CTH on April 2, 2023 | Sundance 

Despite the fact the Western Alliance have created the policy that will deliver pain to their citizens, not a single government leader will look at this move as a bad thing.

The pain will not be felt by the elites, it will only hit the citizenry.  Lowered oil production outputs that drive up gasoline prices and fuel inflationary drivers, expedite the Build Back Better narrative and objective.

However, that said, in context to this announcement, a pain that will hit the Western economies of the alliance represented in yellow, the last 18 months of moves by Mexico makes President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador look remarkably prescient.  The new strategic relationships and trade partnerships between China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, India and beyond, take on an added geopolitical dimension.

DUBAI, April 2 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers on Sunday announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day, in a surprise move that analysts said would cause an immediate rise in prices and the United States called inadvisable.

The pledges bring the total volume of cuts by OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other allies, to 3.66 million bpd according to Reuters calculations, equal to 3.7% of global demand.

Sunday’s development comes a day before a virtual meeting of an OPEC+ ministerial panel, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, and which had been expected to stick to 2 million bpd of cuts already in place until the end of 2023.

The latest reductions could lift oil prices by $10 per barrel, the head of investment firm Pickering Energy Partners said on Sunday, while oil broker PVM said it expected an immediate jump once trading starts after the weekend.

“I expect the market to open several dollars higher … possibly as much as $3,” said PVM’s Tamas Varga. “The step is unreservedly bullish.” (read more)

We have been closely monitoring the signs of a global cleaving around the energy sector taking place. Essentially, western governments following the “Build Back Better” climate change agenda stop using coal, oil and gas to power their economic engine, while the rest of the growing economic world continues using the more efficient and traditional forms of energy to power their economies.

Within the BBB western group (identified on map in yellow), the logical consequences are increased living costs for those who live in the BBB zone, and increased prices for goods manufactured in the BBB zone.  In the zone where traditional low-cost energy resources continue to be developed (grey on map), we would expect to see a lower cost of living and lower costs to create goods.   Two divergent economic zones based on two different energy systems.

This potential outcome just seemed to track with the logical conclusion.  The yellow zone also represented by the World Economic Forum, and the gray zone also represented by an expanding BRICS alliance.  Against this predictable backdrop, we have been watching various events unfold – some obvious and some less so.

FLASHBACK to July 2022:

[…] “China’s invitation to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to join the ‘BRICS’ confirms that the Kingdom has a major role in building the new world and became an important and essential player in global trade and economics,” Mohammed al-Hamed, president of the Saudi Elite group in Riyadh, told Newsweek. “Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is moving forward at a confident and global pace in all fields and sectors.”

[…] “This accession, if Saudi joins it, will balance the world economic system, especially since the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the largest exporter of oil in the world, and it’s in the G20,” Hamed said. “If it happens, this will support any economic movement and development in the world trade and economy, and record remarkable progress in social and economic aspects as Saudi Arabia should have partnerships with every country in the world.” (read more)

That would essentially be the end of the petrodollar, and – in even more consequential terms – the end of the United States ability to use the weight of the international trade currency to manipulate foreign government.  The global economic system would have an alternative.  The fracturing of the world, created as an outcome of energy development, would be guaranteed.

Keep in mind, in early June 2022, Federal reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated, “Rapid changes are taking place in the global monetary system that may affect the international role of the dollar.”  {LINK}

The Western Alliance (yellow) would be chasing climate change energy policy to power their economies.  The rest of the world (grey), including Mexico, would be using traditional and more efficient energy development.  The global cleaving around energy use would be complete.

This is not some grand conspiracy, ‘out there‘ deep geopolitical possibility, or foreboding likelihood as an outcome of short-sighted western emotion.  No, this is just a predictable outcome from western created events that pushed specific countries to a natural conclusion based on their best interests.

You can debate the motives of the western leaders who structured the sanctions against Russia, and whether they knew the outcome would happen as a consequence of their effort, but the outcome was never really in doubt.  Personally, I believe this outcome is what the west intended. The people inside the World Economic Forum are not stupid – ideological, yes, but not stupid. They knew this global cleaving would happen.

For a deep dive on BRICS, as predicted by CTH, {SEE HERE}.  The bottom line is – the 2022 punitive economic and financial sanctions by the western nations’ alliance against Russia was exactly the reason why BRICS assembled in the first place.

Multinational corporations in control of government are what the BRICS assembly foresaw when they first assembled during the Obama administration.  When multinational corporations run the policy of western government, there is going to be a problem.

In the bigger picture, the BRICS+ assembly are essentially leaders who do not want corporations and multinational banks running their government. BRICS leaders want their government running their government; and yes, that means whatever form of government that exists in their nation, even if it is communist.

BRICS leaders are aligned as anti-corporatist.  That doesn’t necessarily make those government leaders better stewards, it simply means they want to make the decisions, and they do not want corporations to become more powerful than they are.  As a result, if you really boil it down to the common denominator, what you find is the BRICS+ group are the opposing element to the World Economic Forum assembly.

The BRICS team intend to create an alternative option for all the other nations. An alternative to the current western trade and financial platforms operated on the use of the dollar as a currency.  Perhaps many nations will use both financial mechanisms depending on their need.  This is how they replace the U.S. as the global superpower.

The objective of the BRICS group is simply to present an alternative trade mechanism that permits them to conduct business regardless of the opinion of the multinational corporations in the ‘Western Alliance.’

The BRICS team, especially if Saudi Arabia, Iran and Argentina are added creating BRICS+, would indeed be a counterbalance to the control of western trade and finance.  This global cleaving is moving from a possibility to a likelihood.  If Saudi Arabia joins BRICS, the fracture becomes almost certain.

March 29, 2023, CHINESE national oil company CNOOC and France’s TotalEnergies have completed China’s first yuan-settled liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade through the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange, the exchange said on Tuesday (Mar 28).

Approximately 65,000 tonnes of LNG imported from the UAE changed hands in the trade, it said in a statement. TotalEnergies confirmed to Reuters that the transaction involved LNG imported from the UAE but did not comment further. (read more)

This exchange between the UAE and France is taking place without dollars. If the process continues, the dollar weakens.  In the geopolitical world of currency valuations and trade, this might be considered the Archduke Ferdinand moment for the end of the petrodollar.  The question will become, can they grow this process with OPEC+ support and begin eventually trading oil in yuan?

MEXICO – Three new oil refineries together with new railroads and highways are under construction right now as the government continues positioning itself for energy independence. [Video Here]

The energy plan, which runs counter to the expressed demands of Canada and the United States, includes two regional ‘green’ refineries that will have the ability of turning used cooking oil into fuel.  However, the plan also includes new oil refinery capacity that will permit cheap gasoline independent of the need for Mexican oil to be refined in Texas and returned.

All of the refinery projects are on schedule to be completed by the end of this year and into 2024.  In essence, Mexico will have very cheap gasoline and diesel fuel in the near future.  This was previously outlined as a goal by AMLO in July 2022, and is against the interests of the Biden administration.  Now, those plans are becoming a reality.  Mexico is not joining the North American (Western Alliance) suicide mission of windmills, solar panels and reliance on unstable green energy.

Ever since the July 2022 Oval Office press conference at the White House, CTH has been saying to keep an eye on Mexico, because these energy plans align more with the BRICS nation agenda than the goals and objectives of the World Economic Forum (western nations).

It is not accidental the U.S. government, including our intelligence agencies and DHS, has been seeding a negative overall impression of Mexico ever since.  However, you can see how prescient Mexico has been when contrast against current geopolitical events.

Apr 2 2023

FIAT – What is it Really!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Foreign Exchange Re-Posted Apr 2, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Governments create their own sovereign fiat currency, to facilitate trade, among other reasons. So counterfeit is punishable, in some countries, by death, & at minimum, incarceration. Currency is supposed to be sacrosanct, created under the most exacting conditions. So what to do when your own gov’t engages in what is essentially officially endorsed counterfeit? I mean, the “money” has become almost meaningless, unless you’re on the receiving end. For non-insiders like me…buy PM.

HS

ANSWER: I have trouble with this misinformation always about the only money is gold and paper dollars are worthless fiats, which have rebuilt the world many times over since 1861 and the introduction of the paper dollar.

The propaganda of the goldbugs which has led so many to lose so much has been this nonsense that gold is the hedge against inflation. When the gold coin was money during the 19th century, it rose and fell in purchasing power no different than any paper currency. These people sell fiction like a used car salesman just to sell their product.  It honestly does not matter what money is. It always is just a derivative of barter. I give you this for that. You will accept paper money because you know that others will accept it from you. A woman tried to spend a $20 gold coin at Walmart and they refused to accept it because they did not know what it was. She then took them to the back and exchanged them for $20 bills.

Try going to Starbucks and spending a $20 gold coin and asking for change. Unless the salesperson knows what it is, they will refuse.MONEY has always been nothing more than a belief system. That’s all!

FIAT simply means by arbitrary decree. Just because a currency is gold or even silver, does NOT make its value intrinsic. Governments have debased their coinage and reduced the weight declaring its value shall be whatever they say. I have written about how Japan did that and eventually, the people refused to accept Japanese coins and they stopped minting them for 600 years.

The Romans reduced the weight of their silver coinage from 6.5 grams to 4 grams and only because they defeated the Greeks, the Roman monetary system became standard.

During the American Revolution, people accepted the Continental Currency. Money has always simply been predicated upon what people will accept.

Gold has no value whatsoever unless the other person also believes it has value. Gold or silver has no value intrinsically any more than a paper dollar or a bag of rice unless there is an unspoken agreement among people that it is a valuable medium of exchange.

This is the truth. All else is propaganda. Money has been many things throughout thousands of years from seashells to cattle and even slave girls.

StPatrick-tokens

Saint Patrick in the 5th Century AD upon his arrival in Ireland, found that MONEY was expressed in human slave girls. He wrote in his Confession, “I think that I have given away to them no less than the price of fifteen humans.” This passage shows something very important. First, MONEY is not defined as the Medium of Exchange exclusively. It also serves the purpose of a Unit of Account. This becomes the true function of MONEY even more so than what it is. MONEY is a language of value.

FIAT is when the government dictates what something is and that will be Digital Central Bank Currency. But if everyone accepts it, then it becomes the medium of exchange.

Mar 31 2023

Why America Will Lose this War As every one Since WWII


Armstrong Economics Blog/Neocons Re-Posted Mar 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

A number of people have asked why does Socrates say that the United States will lose this war. One states: “The standalone American firepower without UK/ France, etc, itself is tremendous. How does Socrates say that America will lose the war? It may lose financially. The Chinese have the worst track record in any war.” Perhaps I should just say, cyclically – it’s just TIME.

The Neocons are in charge of this war. They are trying conventionally for their constant goal of REGIME CHANGE. They are doing what Khrushchev had threatened Communism would win and we will bury you. This is their mantra and they think forcing a Republican form of government upon the rest of the world will bring peace. Those were the dreams of Hitler and Napoleon as well. Communism collapsed because it is simply unsustainable. Nevertheless, the Neocons have never backed down. They objected to Reagan even meeting with Gorbehev saying you can never trust Russians.

The Neocons have pushed endless wars for their hatred. They have NEVER won a single war. The US has lost EVERY war post WWII. Korea was a standoff, and Vietnam, along with Afghanistan were all losses and for what? They remove Saddam Husein and unleashed ISIS where Saddam kept the religious fanatics in check. Their theory was to remove all dictators in the Middle East and that would bring peace to Israel. They supplied arms and that led to the overthrow of Quadaffi in Libya and they were trying the same in Syria.

Now Nukes are no longer a deterrent when you are playing with nuclear powers. They have used Ukraine as cannon fodder to weaken Russia and they hope they can then invade under any excuse and conquer Russia, which has been their end goal for decades. They bank on that they can defeat Russia and it will never go nuclear. I am flabbergasted by some of these Neocons and their sheet hatred of the Russian people like Adam Kinzinger who proclaims we can defeat Russia in 3 days. I suppose we could then turn and defeat China perhaps in 5 days. These people play with the lives of innocent civilians and send other people’s sons and daughters to war to be sacrificed for their personal hatred. The claim Putin is evil but never look in the mirror to see the hatred in their own eyes.

Robert McNamara (1916 – 2009) was a leading Neocon that pushed the country into the Vietnam war.  He was famous for saying: “I learned early on never answer the question that is asked of you. Answer the question that you wish had been asked of you. And quite frankly, I follow that rule. It’s a very good rule.”

https://youtube.com/watch?v=0enCCGBW3xc%3Ffeature%3Doembed

Before he died, he finally admitted that they were wrong particularly in their assessment of Russia as a threat. The perception that Russia is a threat is still dominating the agenda today. The propaganda that Putin is a KGB guy who wants to re-establish the Soviet Empire is absurd. In the 22 years that he has been in power, he has neither tried to re-establish communism nor has he sought to retake the old Soviet states like Poland, the Czech Republic, or even Ukraine. The same claims today about Russia are the very same ones that justified Vietnam.

Apparently, McNamara died with the guilt of sacrificing 58,000 Americans on the Neocon altar of war for at the end of his life, he admitted they were wrong. They are NOT Americans. They DO NOT serve American interests. They only serve their own International interests and are dragging countries into endless wars and carnage.

While these neocons only focus on war, they are destroying the United States economy. They are pouring money into this undeclared war on Russia when in fact the Constitution states that ONLY Congress can declare war – not the President. The United States will lose the war, and we are losing our title of Financial Capital of the World. Just as WWI & WWII took that title away from Britain, WWII will take it from the United States and hand it squarely into the arms of China.

Than the warmongering Neocons for destroying your future all because of their personal hatred.