Category Hyper Inflation

Jul 19 2022

Coming Soon: Climate Change v Animal Activists


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Jul 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Two groups that usually overlap are about to come into direct confrontation due to the net-zero carbon culture. Both climate and animal rights activists have been known to make their voices heard through protests that are not always peaceful. Farmers are being unfairly targeted by climate change activists for having cattle that produce emissions, and governments are ramping up legislation to limit farming.

Farmers in Norway have been protesting for months as the government plans to eliminate around 30% of agriculture to reduce carbon emissions. Now, Northern Ireland is considering eliminating over one million cattle and sheep to meet emission targets by 2050. The Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU) estimates that 500,000 cattle and 700,000 sheep will need to die. In a separate analysis, five million chickens will need to be slaughtered before 2035.

While animal activists to the extreme would like to end farming and create a meatless world, they are not going to be happy when they realize those piloting the climate change agenda plan to kill these animals rather than allowing them to live out their days on taxpayer-funded farms.

Activism aside, we are in the midst of a food crisis. Those in first-world nations have seen the cost of food rise drastically throughout the past year. Perhaps some of your groceries of choice are no longer available or are often out of stock. However, people are starving to death in less developed parts of the world at a rapid rate and there is not enough food or funding to save everyone. In fact, the World Bank estimated that world hunger reached a high in 2021 when 193 million became food insecure, a number that rose by 40 million from 2020. Our model indicates that this cycle will continue to grow.

In the meantime, those championing saving the world with various causes will come into direct confrontation with one another. The left will increasingly divide into left v Socialists and dampen plans for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Jul 19 2022

Russia to Cut off Germany from Gas Thanks to Zelensky


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jul 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It is very interesting how Volodymyr Zelensky is doing whatever he can, not merely to destroy all of Europe, but to push the world into World War III because of his and Ukraine’s inherent hatred of Russians. He has told Justin Trudeau that Ukrainians would never accept Canada’s decision to return a gas turbine intended for a Russian pipeline because it would encourage more sanctions violations. Meanwhile, Gazprom has come out and stated that it could no longer guarantee its “good functioning” pipeline to Germany due to crucial turbines that are being held up in Canada because of sanctions.

Gazprom has declared extraordinary circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to Germany, whereby the gas flow to Europe will stop flowing indefinitely. Reuters reported a letter dated July 14, 2022. Zelensky thinks cutting gas supplies to Germany will force NATO to invade Russia. Kyiv will be the first to go before Zelensky can make it to his private jet to run off to enjoy the hundreds of millions he is stashing offshore.

Perhaps Germany should now invade Ukraine. It seems to be the only way to save Europe.

Our computer has been targeting here late July and August and high volatility and August as a Panic Cycle in some markets. But just about everything is going nuts into 2023. A quarterly closing above $6.25 in natural gas, which it has NOT been able to achieve this far, will confirm this is going to get much worse. Therefore, a September closing ABOVE $6.25 will be a serious warning for 2023. We had a rare Double Directional Change this quarter, so it looks like we have the most brain-dead crop of world leaders ever in human history and Zelensky, who I warned was the man who would create World War III.

Even NYC lost over 5,000 small businesses thanks to COVID. There isn’t a single decision these people are capable of making. It has reached the point that people who I know personally, who would be qualified to lead, are simply not interested due to the WOKE culture. We are simply headed into a politically created nightmare.

We see sharply higher volatility in August and the SIGNIFICANT risk of war coming in the first quarter of 2023. This is NOT something that is my personal opinion. The only thing that can actually target periods well in advance is an unbiased computer. It was Socrates that targeted 2008 as a Panic Cycle published back in 1999, which can be verified on the Wayback Machine. That was not only the Great Crash that set in motion negative interest rates theories, but it was the historical high in the euro.

Jul 18 2022

Inflation – Real Estate – Chaos


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold RePosted Jul 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I thought you were just a Trumper warning what would happen if Biden won. I have come back to your site because I can see inflation approaching 10% as you said and the dollar is rising which made no sense as gold stalled. I think you also said that real estate will decline perhaps into 2023. Has there ever been such a wild combination of events?

Thanks

Pete

ANSWER: It gives me no pleasure to deliver such forecasts. They are NEVER my personal opinion. In all honesty, it truly takes a computer to sort out all the global trends. Personal opinions will not cut it when you enter a period that has not unfolded in a very long time.

I have told the story before that back in 1985 when we were going to open our first office in Europe, I went to lunch with one of the heads of a Swiss bank when I was there. I had a list of names we came up with like European Advisers or something like that because I knew there was a lot of anti-Americanism in Europe. He asked me to name one European analyst. I could not. I was embarrassed but he said there were none.

He then explained that everyone was using our firm on currency because “You do not give a shit if the dollar goes up or down.” He elaborated that in Europe if any analyst ever said their currency would decline it would have been seen as treason since the politicians had used currency to prove they did a good job rebuilding Europe after the war.

I learned many years ago, that the only way to operate was to call the shots as they unfold. My personal opinion means nothing. I cannot make a market rise when its trend is down. I am here to simply deliver what the computer projects. No matter how loud I could scream, it does not matter. What will be – will be.

Real Estate is undergoing three separate trends. First, there has been mass evacuation from cities and high-taxed states thanks also to draconian COVID laws. Secondly, we have the flight of capital to flee banks, etc which is part of just getting capital off the grid. Then thirdly, there has been a flight of international capital fleeing to the United States because of geopolitical instability in Europe.

The standard claim is that real estate will drop by 50% all because of interest rates pointing to some cities declining by 4% in June alone. This is merely confusing the people for they are looking at only the big cities that are already in decline for a separate reason from interest rates.

The claim that interest rate hikes imply that real estate will decline is very old school and once more it presumes everyone is buying on leverage. In 2021, cash sales represented 25% of existing home sales in the key markets that were a level unmatched since 2016. Nationally, buyers paid cash for almost 15% of the homes in 2021 in markets that were booming from migration from other states.

Florida, the Tampa market was even hotter. Single-family homes saw 45.5% more buyers paid cash than in 2020. The number of condo buyers paying cash went up 33.2%. While more people paid cash, the inventory dropped, with 29.2% fewer active listings of single-family homes in the 2021 third quarter than in 2020. Condo listings dropped even more, at 52.2% fewer available. Speaking to a local realtor, houses in excess of $1 million in the Tampa area were 95% cash deals.

This market has been LESS impacted by interest rate hikes than any previous booming market all because of the migration from interstate within the US and the flood of European buyers looking for assets outside of Europe as war keeps getting closer and closer. I have warned that real estate will decline in those states where people are fleeing. It has boomed in places they have been migrating to such as Texas and Florida. Obviously, you can no longer make a blanket forecast in real estate. Then there has been Blackrock which has bought over 20,000 homes in Florida in the lower-end of the market for cash.

I have warned many times that the standard nonsense that gold rises with inflation has been a sales pitch as trustworthy as a used car salesman. Gold rises during the collapse in the confidence of the government. Everyone will respond based on their own currency.  As the dollar rises, gold has declined in US$, but the pattern will be different for every other currency.

Jul 17 2022

Biden Visits Saudi Arabia, Returns with an Empty Tin Cup and Urgent Need for More Windmills


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 16, 2022 | Sundance

Joe Biden is heading back from an embarrassing trip to Saudi Arabia and the middle east.  Putting aside the fact that physically and mentally Biden looked weak, foolish, and generally incoherent, in an odd way he was appropriately representative of the current of U.S. influence on the global stage.

Before getting to detail, first it is important to emphasize a point that doesn’t get attention domestically.  Democrats are exceptionally weak on all aspects of foreign policy, specifically because their modern ideology is based on hypocrisy of a stunning magnitude.

Domestically, the U.S. media protect democrats by spinning everything into the best light possible.

However, on the world stage the non-western leaders like Putin, Xi and MbS use that hypocrisy like geopolitical ammunition.

Examples… Domestically the U.S. media do not bring up the Joe Biden Afghanistan mess, the rise -and current legitimacy- of the terrorist Taliban; or the brutal mess Barack and Hillary created in Libya; or the unauthorized intervention into Syria that created ISIS; or the complete fubar that was an illegitimate invasion of Iraq; or Hillary’s insufferable “reset” in Russia; or their inability to deal with China’s proxy province of North Korea, because they pretend it’s not; or the current circus célebrè in Ukraine.

Each region, and there are many more, a typical example of how modern democrats are fundamentally weak on foreign policy.  It is not just Joe Biden either; just about every leftist head of state within the alliance of “western democracies” are also pathetically impotent when it comes to influence on a global stage.

The U.K’s Boris Johnson, Canada’s Justin Trudeau, New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern and France’s Emmanuel Macron are collectively as pathetic as Biden when it comes to leadership and influence.  Once they step out of their ‘liberal democracy‘ bubble, and head into a nation that doesn’t have state run media like CNN, MSNBC, The Washington Post, Politico and/or The New York Times, those leaders look like the pathetic fools they are.

Biden and the rest of the leftist heads of state decry “autocracy,” and wax philosophically about “western democratic values”, while standing atop two years of their authoritarian pandemic rules, regulations, mandates and unilateral fiats.   Consider their chase for their beloved climate change energy policy and contrast it against their political pearl-clutching over the energy inflation they created.

Is it any surprise that Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador want’s nothing to do with the other two knuckleheaded leaders of North America who are selling windmills while regulating traditional oil, coal and natural gas out of existence?  At a certain point, a good neighbor has to look at the duct-taped landscaping and say this is ridiculous.  I digress.

The point is that the so called “western values” are nothing more than high-minded think tank talking points.  Nowhere in actual policy do you find western values exhibited in real world action.   Biden wants to confront Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), or Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping over possible human rights abuses, while the same Joe Biden is locking up his political opposition under the justification of an insurrection?  Wait, what?

Yeah, so we started a civil war in Libya and thousands of people are dying in the aftermath. So what?   Biden is here to talk about the Khashoggi splinter your eye, not the Abu Ghraib plank in his.  And, oh yeah, don’t you dare talk about Biden shutting down pipelines and his beloved Green New Deal, just give the U.S. more oil damn you, or something.

I remember well in 2016 when the U.S. media were saying Hillary Clinton was going to mop the floor with Donald Trump at a foreign policy debate.  All Trump had to do was point out the stupid Clinton state dept hypocrisies and it looked like he just threw a bucket of water on the wicked witch.  Hillary melted, and it was hilarious.

Fast forward four years later and another foreign policy matchup was scheduled between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.  Do you remember what happened?  If not, it wouldn’t be surprising, because THEY CANCELLED THE DEBATE.  Why? …

…. Because Trump the peacemaker had just introduced the Abraham Accords.  There was actual peace finally in the Middle east. The U.S. embassy in Israel was built in Jerusalem, without violence.  The U.S. under Trump had a peaceful relationship and mutual understanding with North Korea and Kim Jong Un.  North and South Korea were talking about reunification.  ISIS was destroyed; there was no longer any issue with Syria, and Turkish PM Erdogan was both accountable and on a leash.  There was no conflict with Russia; no expansion of NATO and every NATO country finally paying for their own defense.  Yeah, go figure, THEY CANCELLED THE DEBATE.

Donald Trump had the upper hand in all of his foreign policy engagements, because Trump foreign policy was not inherently based on hypocrisy.

Joe Biden, not so much…

From MbS as interpreted: “We agree on many things, but we differ on a few others. Every country has its own culture and circumstances. I respect yours, you respect mine. Do not impose your culture on us. Do not impose your beliefs on us.” … “We agree we need to do more for climate change, but you guys are doing it wrong by favoring certain energy sources over others. The world needs energy security. We need all energy sources including oil & gas. We are doing our part on both fronts: climate change & energy security.” … “The stage of a country’s economic & social development must be considered in climate change negotiations.” … “We are increasing our production capacity to 13 million barrels per day (from 12 mb/d), but that is it. We cannot do more.”  The message here is: You guys do your part and invest more if you want to avoid energy crises, recessions, and unemployment. Do NOT blame us!

(Via Wall Street Journal) – After his meeting with the crown prince, Mr. Biden said he felt confident that Saudi officials are supportive of increasing oil supply in the coming weeks. But Saudi officials tempered expectations, reiterating that the kingdom would do what is needed to balance the market if there is a shortage of supply.

Any action, Saudi officials said, would need to be coordinated with the rest of OPEC+, a coalition that includes the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a separate group of crude producers led by Russia. OPEC+’s current production agreement is expiring at the end of August, setting up some crucial decisions about output for the Saudis and Russians in the next month.

[…]  Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said after the summit that there had been no discussion of military or technical cooperation with Israel.

Aside from the U.S. saying the Saudis would work to settle the war in Yemen, which it was already doing, the White House didn’t detail any specific human rights-related concessions that the kingdom agreed to during the meeting.

To the Saudis, the benefit of the visit was more immediately evident. From the moment Mr. Biden arrived at the gilded royal palace in this seaside city, Saudi officials enthusiastically held up the meeting as evidence of the crown prince’s renewed influence. State media promoted photos and videos of the two leaders together. Saudi newspapers later showcased images of the duo bumping fists and sitting together at a conference table. “All Weather Friends,” read one local headline.

“The fact that they’ve come and met means we can resolve these matters quicker and faster, because there’s a personal relationship, and the kingdom has historically had a personal relationship with the president of the United States,” said Princess Reema bint Bandar, the Saudi ambassador to Washington. “So, this isn’t a matter of turning the page. This is a matter of strengthening the relationship.”

Mr. Biden is the latest world leader to make the trip to see the 36-year-old crown prince after years of keeping him at arm’s length over the killing of Mr. Khashoggi. French President Emmanuel Macron traveled to Saudi Arabia in December, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made the trip in March. (read more)

Jul 16 2022

WWIII is not Worth Supporting Ukraine in a Land Grab


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jul 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The West is determined to invade Russia and they believe that they can destroy it despite the fact that they are no longer a communist nation or a threat. That does not seem to matter for they want war because Russia and China will not surrender their sovereignty to the United Nations under this Great Reset all for Climate Change & the WEF.

Indeed, many practical Western military strategists are starting to agree that Henry Kissinger’s advice must be taken and that peace negotiations should begin – NOW. There is a growing number of military strategists that realize that Russia and Belarus along with China and North Korea will all join to defeat the West and NATO which they see as the greatest threat now to humanity.

The West needs war because it can no longer maintain this Marxist socialism system borrowing endlessly with no intention to repay anything  back. This is coming to an end. Our computer has warned 40 years ago that the target for the collapse of socialism was due in 2023. Communism fell in 1989 and now it is our turn in 2023. Marx’s theories will be remembered throughout history. I find it interesting that it is forbidden even in the Ten Commandments warning that this idea of rob from one class to hand to another has never worked. We must now pay the price for this theory. When it was first imposed, over 200 million people died resisting communism in Russia and China. It is ironic that now we are the Marxism trying to impose our will upon Russia and China. What goes around, comes around.

Russia has been unable to use its air power because NATO is providing Ukraine with all the tactical information needed so they only need to turn on their radar minutes before launching and as such Russia cannot destroy those systems which have been supplanted by NATO. Either Russia takes out the AWACs providing that information which then is an act against NATO. The West thinks it is very clever in this arrangement but they really have entered the war and it is just a matter of time that this escalates out of control.

The danger here is that the West is pushing Russia into a very dangerous position. Russia can terminate the entire supply of arms to Ukraine by destroying dams that also form key bridges over the Dnepr. However, they can score a complete defeat of Ukraine by launching several dozen tactical nuclear weapons. What will NATO do then? These clever tactics of NATO being in the war but pretending they are not is a very risky game.

It is not likely that the West will ever take the advice of Kissinger and apply pressure to Kyiv to come to the table and face this unpleasant reality that they must relinquish their claim to territory occupied by Russians who they absolutely hate.

Jul 16 2022

THE COLLAPSE IS HERE & THE FARMERS ARE FIGHTING BACK


The Dive With Jackson Hinkle  Published originally on Rumble on July 15, 2022

Jul 16 2022

Pete Buttigieg Admits High Gas Prices are Intentionally Part of the Biden Strategy to Push People to Electric Vehicles


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 15, 2022 | Sundance 

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a cabinet ideologue with zero experience in business or transportation, appears in the news admitted the high price of gasoline is part of the Biden energy agenda to push people into purchasing electric vehicles.  You’ll have a higher car payment, but you won’t pay for gasoline.  WATCH:

Jul 14 2022

Texas Utility Officials Taking Additional Emergency Measures to Avoid Blackouts, Texas Windmills Not Providing Enough Energy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 13, 2022 | Sundance

Officials in the state of Texas are worried the emergency measures taken Wednesday to avoid blackouts may not be enough.  The utility operators urgently need the wind to start operating the windmills or things might get worse.  Reuters News has more:

(Reuters) – Texas’s power grid operator on Wednesday took emergency measures to avoid rolling blackouts as soaring electricity demand threatened to outpace available supplies amid a stifling heatwave.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the grid that serves more than 26 million customers, initiated a rarely used emergency program that is triggered when supplies fall below a critical safety margin.

Earlier, ERCOT had urged residents to cut power use during the hottest hours of the day and warned of a risk for rolling blackouts. Residents were asked to turn up thermostats, defer the use of high-power appliances and turn off swimming pool pumps.

The emergency notice came after ERCOT began paying suppliers an average of $5,000 per magawatt hour to keep generators running. That price is the highest the grid operator pays.  “They were pulling a lot of levers to avoid going into emergency operations and rolling blackouts,” said Doug Lewin, president of consultants Stoic Energy LLC. (read more)

Call me Captain Obvious, but in addition to the population migration, it looks like Texas imported California’s energy policies.  The sustainable energy isn’t sustainable.  However, on a positive note, their state ESG score is improving.

Jul 14 2022

The Pretending Continues, Furrowed Brow Edition


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 13, 2022 | Sundance

The professionally furrowed brows are forced to admit high prices remain problematic for the proles while retaining the sympathetic pretense.  WATCH:

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Comrade rebels, when things get spicy, I’ve got dibbs on his swimming pool.

Jul 14 2022

Bank of Canada Raises Interest Rates 1 Percent Claiming Excess Demand in Economy is Driving Inflation


Posted originally on the Conservative tree House on July 13, 2022 | Sundance

Folks, the Build Back Better western alliance are fully vested in the pretending game.  It is just one big insufferable game of pretending, and the citizens of the western government powers, You and Me, are the victims.

Seriously, it’s stunning, yet oddly not surprising, that the same multinational forces who created the global inflation crisis as a result of following the World Economic Forum spending agenda, are now claiming the global economy is simply too hot, too successful, there is just too much demand, and that justifies their raising of interest rates:

OTTAWA, July 13 (Reuters)– The Bank of Canada surprised on Wednesday with a full-percentage-point increase to its policy rate, a super-sized hike last seen in 1998, citing “higher and more persistent” inflation and the increased risk of those price gains becoming entrenched.

The central bank, in a regular rate decision, raised its policy rate to 2.5% from 1.5%, and said more hikes would be needed. The move was more forceful than the 75-basis point increase economists and money markets had forecast.

….”With the economy clearly in excess demand, inflation high and broadening, and more businesses and consumers expecting high inflation to persist for longer, the Governing Council decided to front-load the path to higher interest rates,” the bank said. [LINK]

This is the actual justification from the Bank of Canada.

Read it carefully: “With the economy clearly in excess demand.”

Yes folks, I have always said that in order to retain their ideological positions, the leftists in control of policy have to pretend not to know things.  That right there is the Bank of Canada pretending not to know the Canadian economy is contracting.  Exactly the same as Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chairman Powell pretending not to know the U.S. economy is contracting.

Do you see what happened, and what they are doing?

The Build Back Better energy policy of the collective western governments’ is driving supply side inflation.  It’s the new climate change energy policy, all being implemented by the same institutional elements, that is creating the massive increases in overall prices.

It’s the energy policy driving inflation, NOT consumer DEMAND.

The western multinationals, government and multinational/central banks, all carry the same ideological mindset.  All of them are collectively supporting the Build Back Better agenda from execution of infrastructure shifts to their direct control over ESG investment in only “sustainable energy” projects.

The fascist assembly of western government and western banks working together to create this great international game of pretending. All of it so they do not have to admit their ideological climate agenda is destroying economies.   Thus, to keep up the pretense, they raise interest rates into a contracting economy.  This is why I keep saying the pretense is what’s going to end up starving people, creating desperation and ultimately killing people.

Energy demand is no different today than it was pre-pandemic 2018 and 2019.  It’s the energy supply, and all of the downstream industrial energy processes that are being blocked, that has created the supply-side issue.

The post-pandemic Build Back Better agenda has shifted the entire energy sector and created all of these inflationary outcomes.

The World Economic Forum, the Bank of Canada, central banks in Europe and Secretary Janet Yellen and Chairman Jerome Powell are all pretending not to know these issues are outcomes of energy policy.  The collective western nations all took the same path.  All of the outcomes are identical, and now all of their denials and pretenses are being maintained in a collective justification filled with bullshit.