Tag Archives: socialism

Oct 29 2018

Europe & Risk of Revolution


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest

Re-Posted Oct 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Thank you, Mr Armstrong, for your lifetime work. mindblowing as always.
I picture Europe now as Greece during the Roman Republic (before its conquest). isolated, corrupted to the core. And the US as the new Roman Republic. Will it become an empire after 2032?
Marius was the man of the people and in the end, he was defeated by Sylla (Senate if I m correct). But Marius’ idea was carried on by Cesar. Was he a socialist before the hour?
as a European, which side is the safest to pick when we will be dragged in the conflict???
thanks again!

best regards from France

ANSWER: Ironically, people may think history is just the past. The next time you watch Star Wars, look closer. It is about this very struggle of the people versus the Empire. Instead of swords, they fight with laser swords. If you look at the royal guard, they had cloaks and helmets much as the Romans were dressed. This is actually a saga that is repeated time and again throughout history. Pericles in Athens was charged and put on trial as they are trying to do with Trump. Today, we call it the Deep States. In Roman times, Caesar fought against the corrupt Senate who was the political party known as the Optimates.

You are correct, Marius lost. His coins refected the anti-establishment. You can see the female head of Italia, for which he was fighting. Caesar’s reputation has been distorted by the corrupt Optimates such as Cato and Cicero. Caesar was a man of the people, not a socialist, just an anti-establishment from the perspective of corruption. He too had to flee Rome under the dictatorship of Sulla who would have killed him much as Stalin killed anyone who might oppose him.

The aspect of Europe is the total failure to really integrate the 28 member states. It is effectively a dictatorship without accepting the responsibilities. The EU dictates what the budgets should be of each member under the pretense of maintaining the Euro. The USA does not have that structure. The Feds, nor the Federal Reserve, care about the budgets of each 50 state. This is what I mean that the failure to consolidate the debts from the outset has created a dictatorship. The good news is that the EU has no central power as of yet to militarily invade a member who refuses to comply. In the case of Europe, it is extremely vulnerable to a complete collapse because the member states still retained even their own central banks. The EU could call upon some states to provide it with troops to invade another. But that is tenuous at best as the lack of confidence in the central EU government is gradually collapsing.

Oct 29 2018

Hesse German Election – Merkel’s CDU Loses Significantly


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany

Re-Posted Oct 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

Both the SPD and the CDU have suffered serious major losses in the state elections in Hesse. The CDU and SPD have accepted the expected clear defeat where they lost some 10% of the votes compared to the last election and it is really all about the Refugee issue. The Greens have won sharply as many people also were afraid of the AfD. But they had to vote for someone and they turned to the Greens. The AfD, meanwhile, gained 12.6% of the votes in Hesse, which is a state that is home to six million people and the German capital of finance, Frankfurt am Main. The polls look to be as follows:

  • CDU: 27.8%  down from  38.3% (2013)
  • SPD: 19.9% down from 30.7% (2013)
  • Green: 19.8% up from 11.1% (2013)
  • AfD: 12.6% up from 4% (2013)
  • FDP: 7.6% up from 5.0% (2013)
  • Left Party: 6.6% up from  5.2% (2013)

This is confirming that the Trump Revolution is still in play. That does not mean others are supporting Trump. It simply means that whoever is in power is being thrown out of office. Unfortunately, the way German politics works, they can form a coalition to rule despite the fact that what they stand for are completely opposite positions. So a coalition of the black-green coalition and an alliance with the CDU is possible, but this would be extremely vulnerable and narrow. A CDU and Greens coalition would produce 56 seats out of 110. They really need a coalition of the Greens with both the CDU and SPD making it a black-green-red government with 63 seats out of 125.

What is very clear is that the rising discontent with the entire refugee crisis may yet bring Merkel down and the entire EU, if they do not wake up and admit a serious mistake, has been made

Oct 28 2018

Central American Migrant Caravan Declines Mexican Offer to Apply for Asylum …


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 27, 2018 by

The Central American migration force is gaining additional followers as they continue their march toward the southern U.S. border. In an effort to stop a political and diplomatic crisis between the U.S. and Mexico, outgoing Mexican President Pena Nieto offered assistance and asylum for the migrants to remain in Mexico. The growing swarm declined the offer… the looming crisis grows.  [PBS Video Report Here]

ARRIAGA, Mexico (AP) — Several thousand Central American migrants turned down a Mexican offer of benefits if they applied for refugee status and stayed in the country’s two southernmost states, vowing to set out before dawn Saturday to continue their long trek toward the U.S. border.

Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto announced what he called the “You are at home” plan, offering shelter, medical attention, schooling and jobs to Central Americans in Chiapas and Oaxaca states if they applied, calling it a first step toward permanent refugee status. Authorities said more than 1,700 had already applied for refugee status.

But after one of the caravan’s longest days of walking and hanging from passing trucks, the bulk of the migrants were boisterous Friday evening in their refusal to accept anything less than safe passage to the U.S. border.

“Thank you!” they yelled as they voted to reject the offer in a show of hands in the town of Arriaga. They then added: “No, we’re heading north!”

Sitting at the edge of the edge of the town square, 58-year-old Oscar Sosa of San Pedro Sula, Honduras concurred.

“Our goal is not to remain in Mexico,” Sosa said. “Our goal is to make it to the (U.S). We want passage, that’s all.” (read more)

Meanwhile The Daily Mail is reporting information from a former MS13 gang member that supports the position of President Trump:

(Via Daily Mail) […]  An 18-year-old who claims to be a former member of the feared Latin mafia MS-13 has backed President Trump’s controversial claim that the migrant caravan contains gangsters and criminals.

Trump has faced a barrage of criticism for insisting that the brutal Central American street gang’s operatives are embedded in the sprawling human convoy.

However the 18-year-old, an orphan who says he was lured into the gang at 16, told DailyMail.com he knows of at least ten of his former MS-13 cohorts who are hiding out in the mass of disheveled migrants marching north through Mexico.

‘I don’t agree with anything Donald Trump stands for but on this occasion the President is right,’ he warned. ‘People who deny there are criminals in the caravan are being naive. MS-13 are everywhere – they contaminate everything.’  (read more)

Oct 28 2018

PM Benjamin Netanyahu Sends Message of Support to Pittsburgh…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 27, 2018 by

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sends a message of support to the people of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

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Oct 28 2018

Update: Pittsburgh Synagogue Shooting – Number of Casualties – Suspect Identified – Update: 11 People Killed, 6 Injured…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 27, 2018 by

UPDATE: 4:00pm EST Police/FBI/DOJ Briefing:  •9:54am initial call to 911; •officers dispatched 9:55am; •11 fatalities (no children); •six injuries including 4 police; •suspect used rifle and 3 handguns; •suspect Robert Bowers, no prior police contact; •suspect acted alone; •motive appears hate-crime, antisemitism.

A suspect named Robert Bowers (48) opened fire in a synagogue in the Squirrel Hill neighborhood of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, today killing an unknown number of people. Bowers opened fire at the Tree of Life Congregation Synagogue shortly before 10am.

According to an assembly of media reports, the shooter killed at least three people on the main floor of the building then went downstairs, where the congregation was gathering in the basement, and opened fire killing at least four people there.

At some point he exchanged fire with SWAT teams and injured four police officers. After being injured himself in the crossfire, Bowers surrendered to police. He is now in custody. Among the six people injured were four police officers and two congregants who are clinging to life in the hospital.

The shooter’s motive appears to be pure evil. Hatred, antisemitism, bigotry and hatred toward Jews. A man with the same name posted on the social media site Gab an hour before the shooting that he was enraged by the influx of Jewish migrants to the US and that he was ‘going in’.

The Associated Press

 

Donald J. Trump

The White House

Oct 28 2018

Can Merkel Survive the Hesse Election?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized

Re-Posted Oct 28, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Merkel remains the face of Europe outside of the continent and the risk of Merkel losing the Chancellorship will be a serious crack in the confidence of the Euro. The Hesse election is now taking place and what is at risk here is Chancellor Angela Merkel and her grand coalition. The voters will decide Sunday whether Merkel’s supporters will survive politically. What is at stake is the future of the CDU itself and possibly also her SPD colleague. With the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the socialistic ideas of the SPD, the SPD is coming to the conclusion that they see no future in maintaining the coalition with Merkel’s CDU. Following the Bavarian election two weeks ago, the rise of the AfD has placed Markel at risk. The Bavarian election turned out to be truly a referendum on the CSU’s anti-Merkel position in Germany. Under pressure from the nativist AfD, the CSU chose to imitate the far-right party’s anti-immigrant and anti-European rhetoric to win with whatever lies it would take. The coalition is breaking apart and a loss in Hesse may see political change in Germany before the end of November.

There is a rising view that Merkel has to go because of her immigrate/refugee policy that has undermined not just Germany, but the entire EU as a whole. A loss for the CDU in Hesse will most likely put pressure on Merkel to step down. In the CDU talk is that the Secretary-General Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has the best chances for succession. Ironically, Kramp-Karrenbauer does not want to be endorsed by Merkel as the talk behind the curtain goes. The fear is that Merkel has perhaps less the 20% support among Germans in general and that can be toxic for anyone she would endorse as her heir. Some are claiming that Merkel can still prevail. Other say she would have to be dragged out by her hair before she would relinquish he political position. Meanwhile, the Euro hangs in the balance

Oct 27 2018

Suspect Cesar Altieri Sayoc Jr. Arrested in Bizarre Mailed IED Plot…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 26, 2018 by

A suspect has been arrested for mailing of 13 suspicious packages containing IED-type devices to prominent political opponents to President Trump.  The suspect is 56-year-old Cesar Altieri Savoc Jr of Aventura, Florida.

According to a joint FBI and DOJ press conference earlier today a fingerprint and traces of DNA led the FBI to Cesar Altieri Sayoc Jr.  The suspect is now charged with with five federal crimes, including mailing an incendiary device and threatening a former president. [Full Indictment Here] He faces up to 48 years in prison according to the DOJ.

According to FBI Director Christopher Wray, Mr. Sayoc left a fingerprint on one of the devices sent to U.S. Representative Maxine Waters, and DNA from two other devices links him to the attacks.

Director Wray outlined during his remarks that the devices consisted of PVC pipe, clocks, batteries, wiring and “energetic material that can become combustible when subjected to heat or friction”. The FBI director went out of his way to state: “these were not hoax devices.”

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Cesar Altieri Sayoc Jr, 56, has a long criminal record including being arrested at least 10 times according to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement.  One arrest in 2002 was for making a bomb threat to Florida Power and Light (FPL).  His most recent encounter with law enforcement was for a 2015 probation violation.

Sun Sentinel News reported that Mr Sayoc was taken into custody Friday morning at an AutoZone auto parts store in Plantation, Florida. FBI agents and other law enforcement officers in the parking lot of the AutoZone then examined Mr. Sayoc’s white van which was covered with pro-Trump and pro-Republican stickers. The officials covered the van with a blue tarp, loaded it onto a truck and drove it away.

Several pictures of the van appear on social media from people in/around the area who took pictures due to the unique nature of it:

Unlike most FBI investigations of recent reference, this time there was apparently no effort to scrub the social media history of Mr. Cesar Altieri Sayoc Jr. from the internet; and multiple accounts liked to the suspect were quickly identified by media and independent research.

His twitter account was “@hardrock2016” [now suspended] and showed him attending at least one Trump rally, as well as the inauguration in DC.  There are also older pictures from when he lived in New York, NY:

Initially Attorney General Jeff Sessions stated Mr. Sayoc could face up to 58-years in prison under the indictment.  However, that statement was later corrected by DOJ spox to be a maximum of 48-years was possible from the current charges.

This is particularly curious given the very carefully worded statement from FBI Director Christopher Wray about the nature of the device(s): “energetic material that can become combustible when subjected to heat or friction.”  While Director Wray went to great lengths to state the devices were “not a hoax“, if the device was an actual explosive device the charges for each of the incidents would equal a life-term.

The terminology: “energetic material that can become combustible when subjected to heat or friction“, could literally mean just about anything from CoffeeMate powered coffee creamer, to any other powered combustible.

As former federal proseuctor Andrew McCarthy noted, if the mailed IED devices were “functionally explosive” they would fall under the category “weapons of mass destruction” [defined here by U.S. code] and the indictment would include 18 US Code 2332a [SEE HERE]  The absence of this charge infers the devices were not functionally explosive.

The pattern within the indictment in combination with the comments from the DOJ and FBI seems odd; and, in my humble opinion, rather political in nature from the perspective of FBI Director Christopher Wray (whom I think is extremely sketchy).

Here’s the indictment (Also in pdf form here):

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/391699154/content?start_page=1&view_mode=&access_key=key-jKHgN2vTTgjVHqWy4l5D

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Oct 27 2018

DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen Discusses Anticipated Border Invasion Response…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 26, 2018 by

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen discusses the supplemental U.S. military troops being added to DHS border personnel ahead of the expected Central American border invasion force.

Additionally Secretary Nielsen discusses the recent wave of politically motivated Acme fake pipe-bombs.

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Part II Below:

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Tal Kopan

Trump administration considers travel ban-like order for Mexican border

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration is considering an executive action that could use travel ban-like authority to block certain asylum seekers at the Mexican border, sources familiar with the…

sfchronicle.com

Oct 27 2018

Does Society Turn More Violent During its End Times?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient History

Re-Posted Oct 27, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Is MMA the new Roman Colosseum? I’m a layman in history but didn’t blood sports rise in popularity during Rome’s decline? Now everyone and their mother is talking about MMA, and random celebrities e.g. Logan Paul or now Trump Jr. are jumping in the octagon or being challenged.

JR
ANSWER: Yes. For some reason, society begins to turn more violent toward its end times. Mixed martial arts is a full-contact combat sport that allows striking and grappling, both standing and on the ground, using techniques from other combat sports and martial arts. It is an interesting pattern. The Christian Persecutions really came into full swing only as the Empire was collapsing during the 3rd century.

Oct 27 2018

Is it the Elections or Interest Rates?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates

Re-Posted Oct 27, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Marty,
Thanks for the continuous enlightening blogs about increasing interest rates and its effects on EM’s and others.
Today on Bloomberg , they were discussing that the earlier 60:40 Equity bond correlation is breaking down and now it’s 100:0 i.e. both go up and down together.
If I understand your view correctly , the increasing interest rates is a death knell for the Bond trade/Sovereign Debt but totally opposite for the Equity mkt which might surge as capital flees to Private assets i.e Equity.
Would you care to comment please ?
Thanks again for all that you do and the fresh perspective you provide.
Best Regards,
US
ANSWER: They are misreading the impact of interest rates. It is really a political impact at this time and as we head into the week of 11/05, there is a rising concern because the Gallup Poll shows that the Democrats may take back the House and them everyone assumed they will do everything in their power to overturn everything Trump has done. So international capital is deeply concerned about the Democrats right now.

We are still in this consolidation transition period. Capital is trying to figure out the future and it is very confusing. This analysis you refer to is myopic at best. They ignore worldwide concerns and focus only on domestic issues. Interest rates have been rising since the 4th quarter of 2015. The decline has NOTHING to do with interest rates. They just have to blame something.