Monthly Archives: August 2019

Aug 28 2019

Emerson National Poll: ‘Sleepy, Crazy, Spank-Me and How’ Maintain Top Spots…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 27, 2019 by 

The outline of primary support at the end of August is traditionally how the voting ends up during the first primaries the following year.  Biden, Sanders, Warren and Harris look to be the only viable candidates. The challenge now becomes keeping the existing support.

(Via Emerson) […] Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, points out that “Mayor Pete Buttigieg has seen his poll numbers drop all summer and is now at 3%, behind Andrew Yang who is at 4%. Mayor Pete has raised enough money to stay in the race for now but will need a strong debate performance to remain relevant.”

There continues to be a large age divide in the democratic primary with Sanders receiving 36% support of those under the age of 50 compared to 11% support among those 50 and over. Biden, on the other hand, has the support of 21% of those under 50 and 44% of those 50 and over. Warren’s support is more consistent as she is at 14% with voters under 50 and 17% with voters 50 and over. And Harris is at 8% among under 50 year olds and 12% among those 50 and up. (read more)

Aug 28 2019

The Leverage of Dependency – Chinese Manufacturers Admit Without U.S. Market They Collapse…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 27, 2019 by 

An interesting article in the South China Morning Post outlines how Chinese companies producing everything from canned mandarin oranges, to mid and high-tier furniture, cannot sustain a business model without access to the U.S. market.

Their problem?…

In essence, when they established their decades-old business model the overwhelming majority of their manufacturing was/is contingent on U.S. buyers.

Right now those Chinese companies are praying the CCP central government keeps devaluing their currency, because U.S. purchasers, including wholesalers and intermediaries, have told those manufacturers they will not pay the import duties.

Apparently, U.S. corporate buyers are leveraging the pressure applied by President Trump – a remarkable dynamic.

(SCMP) […] “The US client called us last weekend and asked us to pay the additional tariff of 5 per cent. We could not refuse since it was our idea to bid to supply the canned fruit for the supermarkets,” she said. “We have no way to deal with it now. We only hope that the yuan will depreciate in the coming weeks and offset the new tariff. Otherwise, we will lose a lot [of money] on this order.”

If the yuan does not further depreciate by more than 5 per cent, she added, the company will have no choice but to cease exports to the US after October 1.

Exporters have been left blindsided after the US said on Friday that it would raise the tariff rate on US$250 billion of Chinese imports from 25 per cent to 30 per cent from October 1, and raise the planned new tariff rate on US$300 billion of goods from 10 per cent to 15 per cent in two tranches on September 1 and December 15.

This was in response to China’s move earlier on Friday to impose retaliatory tariffs of between 5 and 10 per cent on US$75 billion worth of American products, including soybeans, pork, and, for the first time, crude oil. China also reinstated the 25 per cent penalty duty on imports of US-made cars and car parts, bringing the total tariff on the sector to 40 per cent.

[…] “In the case of medium-and high-end furniture, even with the addition of tariffs, it is still impossible to find substitute markets for our products,” said Xie Jun, a furniture exporter in Haining, a city in Zhejiang province where hundreds of furniture factories make goods for export to the US.

[…] “For Chinese exporters, it is useless to be afraid because there is nowhere to hide. We can only rely on the wisdom and countermeasures of the central government,” he said, adding that as long as Beijing can maintain employment levels and prevent the housing market from collapsing, “we are not afraid”. (read more)

The Eagle and the Arrow – An Aesop’s Fable

An Eagle was soaring through the air. Suddenly it heard the whizz of an Arrow, and felt the dart pierce its breast. Slowly it fluttered down to earth. Its lifeblood pouring out. Looking at the Arrow with which it had been shot, the Eagle realized that the deadly shaft had been feathered with one of its own plumes.

Moral: We often give our enemies the means for our own destruction.

Aug 28 2019

Keep Eye on Dorian – Tropical Storm Advisory With Uncertain Forecast…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree house on August 27, 2019 by 

It’s that time of year when it is prudent to re-check your Hurricane plans and emergency supply kits.  Tropical Storm Dorian is approaching the western Caribbean heading toward Puerto Rico.  While the long-term forecast is unpredictable, it is worth taking this opportunity to re-evaluate your supplies, update if needed, and watch the forecast.

(National Hurricane Center) […] Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night.

On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas. (link)

Aug 28 2019

Lawfare Expects McCabe Arrest – That Explains Why CNN Hired Him….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree house on August 27, 2019 by 

The Lawfare group are the external influence agents for corrupt politically motivated lawyers working in government.  The group fingerprints show up everywhere including among “beach friends” and legal schemes hatched from the premise of their assembly.  Lawfare = use the law as a tool in warfare.  [Adult Alinsky disciples.]

The Lawfare group is headed by Comey’s friend Benjamin Wittes; and the group give resistance advice to ideologues inside government as well as outside organizations who are resisting (suing) the Trump administration.

So when Benjamin Wittes announces to his ideological resistance followers:

…”You should thus expect charges against McCabe to be forthcoming any day. And if such charges don’t happen, that doesn’t mean they weren’t planned but, rather, that some extrinsic event has intervened”… (link)

…readers can assume Lawfare leadership has known about McCabe’s risk position for quite some time. Remember, former FBI chief legal counsel James Baker also works for Lawfare.

It is almost guaranteed Andrew McCabe and his lawyer Michael Bromwich are in daily conversations with their network of friends inside Lawfare.  This same ideological network has vast affiliates throughout media. The pending indictment of Andrew McCabe would explain why CNN hired him.

Knowing the DOJ was likely to indict McCabe, CNN could help frame a narrative that serves both their interests.  That narrative was already in the New York Times article describing the potential for the indictment.

When McCabe is charged the media narrative will be it’s because he took the job with CNN… Trump/Barr weaponizing the DOJ and trying to kill free speech etc.  CNN doesn’t have to defend their action in hiring a known liar, they’ll instead frame McCabe as a victim, a fellow traveler to the larger cause of justice – whose indictment is evidence of how far Trump and Barr will go to destroy their enemies etc.

Hey, at least now we know Andrew McCabe is about to be indicted.

Additionally, Wittes goes on to say that something else must be behind the conduct of McCabe if the DOJ is actually going to indict him:

[…] But criminal charges? At least based on what’s in the inspector general’s report, this is very far from a criminal case. Criminal dispositions on false statements matters in internal investigations are exceptionally rare. Absent some gross aggravating factor, I struggle to think of any other examples. Workplace false statements are normally handled through internal disciplinary means, not criminal charges. (link)

Essentially, the Lawfare position is that McCabe was authorized to leak to the media; ergo, the investigation of McCabe leaking to the media was a non-criminal investigation…. ergo, according to Lawfare logic, McCabe lying about non-criminal conduct to the FBI INSD (internal investigators) is not itself criminal.  To wit Andrew McCabe is only lying as a common workplace type of lying, not illegal lying in a criminal investigation.

So Wittes says there must be more to the story…

Which then expands the Lawfare mindset to believe the decision to indict must be related to something discovered within the criminal investigation of events in/around the FISA application (intentionally and materially false presentations to the court), etc.

Perhaps….  I guess we’ll soon find out.

However, it is worth remembering how this entire internecine mess was started.

Andrew McCabe lied to INSD about leaking to the media when the INSD was investigating leaks to the media.  McCabe’s statements contradicted the statements of his assigned DOJ lawer, Lisa Page; who said McCabe instructed and coordinated the leaks to journalist Devlin Barrett of the Wall Street Journal.

When confronted with two sets of competing stories, Lisa Page -vs- Andrew McCabe, it appears the IG-INSD asked Page if she could prove her side of the story.  The need to prove her version of events appears to be the impetus for Page revealing her text messaging.  Page’s texts proved her story, and proved McCabe was lying.

However, from that text messaging review (June/July 2017), in addition to texts between Page and McCabe, the investigation turned-up discussions between Lisa Page and Peter Strzok.

And that’s how that whole thing got started…

Aug 28 2019

Mexican Military Police Battle Illegal African Migrants Attempting to Reach U.S….


Re-Posted from The Conservative tree house on August 27, 2019 by 

HatTip DaveNyiii – Shocking video has surfaced (via Voice of America) of Mexican military police battling today with swarms of African migrants outside an immigration detention center in Tapachula, Mexico.  WATCH:

.

How do African nationals get to Mexico?

[…]  J. Antonio Fernandez, president and CEO of Catholic Charities of San Antonio. These new arrivals hail from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola—two countries with no strong historic ties to the United States. (link)

It’s the business end of illegal immigration.  Previous background here.

TheLastRefuge@TheLastRefuge2
 · 

Wow. Mexican Police clashing with African Migrants attempting to cross border….

🤔How did they get from Africa to Mexico? https://twitter.com/DaveNYviii/status/1166450627888734208 …

TrumpSoldier@DaveNYviii

8/27/19 Mexican Police Clash With Migrants From Africa and Haiti Outside Immigration Center after migrants demand passage through Mexico to the United States. #MexicoIsTheWall

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Francois Aube@Francois_Aube

Did I sleep through geography 101?

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Aug 28 2019

A Nose for Trading


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Re-Posted Aug 28, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I realize my opinion is of little consequence; but I find something interesting and needed to share. After doing a lot of backtesting using many criteria over many stocks my unqualified opinion is that no fixed criteria can be used analyze stock charts over time and many stocks.

I worked with a well respected radiologist in digital imaging. In the early days of digital imaging he perform studies on what resolution and how much time was required to accurately diagnosis a digital image. He told me it came down to a very experienced person would look at an image and get an “impression” of it and not so much looking for #1, #2… etc.

From 20 years of looking at many thousands of stock charts I understand this. As a human I will never be able to write a program that will capture all the nuances my mind will in an instant look at an image. I assume Socrates writes its’ own using an immense amount of data that continually changes. Maybe Socrates can write a program to diagnosis medical images – correct a lot of mistakes.

Bruce

ANSWER: You are absolutely correct. We call it having a “nose” for trading. There is no single algorithm that you can devise or cycle that will predict every turn in a market. The reason for this is because such analysis is attempting to be employed in total isolation. Everything is connected. The Economic Confidence Model has called every turning point in the global economy, right down to the economic decline currently into January 2020.

What you must understand is that this is a global business cycle and you must view it in that fashion. For each wave, the focus shifts. One wave will be a commodity is the hot investment. The next might be real estate, This may be followed by stocks or bonds. Then the focus will shift also around the globe so the “hot” market becomes Japan, then Southeast Asia, then Europe, then America.

Then there is the major trend insofar as the sentiment. We have all witnessed bullish news unfolds yet the market responds in a bearish mode. This is because there is also an oscillating trend to how we interpret events. Just recently, the Fed lowered rate at the top of the stock market in July 2019. The market crashed instead of rallying with lower rates. The interpretation suddenly shifted and people saw it as anticipation of an economic crisis to come.

Nevertheless, the world economy turns with the cycle; some are making highs while others are makings lows. At the same time, we have the rise and fall of nations economically. This is why I say it cannot be forecast by looking at the trend of a single market in motion. While you can do technical analysis on any market, you should never lose track of the entire process. It is the global trend that will swamp a local market and a financial contagion will impact everything during a liquidity crisis. That is what happened in 1998 with the Long-Term Capital Management crisis. The problem was a loss in Russian bonds which could not be liquidated. To cover the losses, they began selling everything else to raise money. Even the Japanese yen rallied with the dollar falling from 147 to 103 in just weeks.

Global Market Watch: DJIND-D

Socrates is monitoring everything so it looks for things differently than a human analyst. Here is the Global Market Watch on the Dow Jones Industrials. It is entirely pattern-recognition. This is a different method of analysis altogether, demonstrating that a computer can have a “nose” for changes by studying the patterns in far more detail than a human. This allows Socrates to look just at the patterns and get that sixth-sense.

Aug 28 2019

DOJ Stall Succeeds – Comey Memo/Archey Declaration Update – Expect Nothing Until After October 11th…


Re-Posted from The Conservative tree house on August 27, 2019 by 

Federal Judge James Boasberg has ruled the U.S. Dept of Justice has until October 11th, 2019, to produce the DOJ FOIA documents subject his August 12th court order; or file an appeal by that same deadline.  Hat Tip Techno-Fog:

~ FULL BACKSTORY HERE ~

The court has ordered the US DOJ “need not release the subject material until it makes a determination on appeal.”  Meaning the DOJ has until 10/11/19 (60 days from 8/12 order) to: A) Produce the documents; or B) Appeal his earlier ruling.

Frustrating.

There is a possibility the content of the Comey Memos and/or Archey Declarations may be part of the upcoming IG report on James Comey, and/or the documents may be part of the pending IG report on DOJ/FBI FISA abuse.  Key words: “may be“.

If you subscribe to the optimistic perspective the DOJ delay could be related to an intention to release the documents with the IG report(s).  However, if you are more cynical, then the DOJ and FBI could be attempting to hide the institutional corruption visible inside the documents.  Two possibilities.

On May 23rd, 2019, President Donald Trump gave U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr full authority to review and release all of the classified material hidden by the DOJ, FBI, State Department, CIA, FISA Court, and aggregate intelligence apparatus.

This Friday, August 30th, will mark 100 days since President Trump granted Bill Barr with the authority to declassify these documents.  Nothing has been declassified by the Department of Justice.

Unrelated to any known ongoing investigation, President Trump empowered AG Bill Barr to release the original authorizing scope of the Mueller investigation which began on May 17, 2017.  A Mueller investigation that concluded five months ago, and yet we are not allowed to know what the authorizing scope was?…. Nor the 2nd DOJ scope memo of August 2nd, 2017?… Nor the 3rd DOJ scope memo of October 20th, 2017?….  This specific non production is very annoying as it does not relate to any current investigation.

Here’s the original material requested by Congress and approved by President Trump:

  • All versions of the Carter Page FISA applications (DOJ) (FBI) (ODNI).
  • All of the Bruce Ohr 302’s filled out by the FBI. (FBI) (ODNI)
  • All of Bruce Ohr’s emails (FBI) (DOJ) (CIA) (ODNI). All supportive documents and material provided by Bruce Ohr to the FBI. (FBI)
  • All relevant documents pertaining to the supportive material within the FISA application. (FBI) (DOJ-NSD ) (DoS) (CIA) (DNI) (NSA) (ODNI);
  • All intelligence documents that were presented to the Gang of Eight in 2016 that pertain to the FISA application used against U.S. person Carter Page; including all intelligence documents that may not have been presented to the FISA Court. (CIA) (FBI) (DOJ) (ODNI) (DoS) (NSA)  Presumably this would include the recently revealed State Dept Kavalac email; and the FBI transcripts from wiretaps of George Papadopoulos (also listed in Carter Page FISA). [AKA ‘Bucket Five’]
  • All unredacted text messages and email content between Lisa Page and Peter Strzok on all devices. (FBI) (DOJ) (DOJ-NSD) (ODNI)
  • The originating CIA “EC” or two-page electronic communication from former CIA Director John Brennan to FBI Director James Comey that started Operation Crossfire Hurricane in July 2016. (CIA) (FBI) (ODNI)

Additionally, since the 2018 list was developed, more information has surfaced about underlying material.  This added to the possibility of documents for declassification:

♦ Release the August 2nd, 2017, two-page scope memo provided by DAG Rod Rosenstein to special counsel Robert Mueller to expand the fraudulent Trump investigation, and initiate the more purposeful obstruction of justice investigation. Also Release the October 20th, 2017, third scope memo that expanded the investigation again, and targeted additional people including Michael Flynn’s family. The Scope Memos are keys to unlocking the underlying spy/surveillance cover-up. [SEE HERE and SEE HERE]

♦ President Trump can prove the July 31st, 2016, Crossfire Hurricane counterintelligence operation originated from a scheme within the intelligence apparatus by exposing the preceding CIA operation that created the originating “Electronic Communication” memo. Declassify that two-page “EC” document that Brennan gave to Comey.  [The trail is found within the Weissmann report and the use of Alexander Downer – SEE HERE]

♦ Release and declassify all of the Comey memos that document the investigative steps taken by the FBI as an outcome of the operation coordinated by CIA Director John Brennan in early 2016.  [The trail was memorialized by James Comey – SEE HERE]  Release and declassify the declarations of FBI Agent David Archey that describe the purpose of the Comey memos:

♦ Reveal the November 2015 through April 2016 FISA-702 search query abuse by declassifying the April 2017 court opinion written by FISC Presiding Judge Rosemary Collyer. Show the FBI contractors behind the 85% fraudulent search queries. [Crowdstrike? Fusion-GPS? Nellie Ohr? Daniel Richman?]  This was a weaponized surveillance and domestic political spying operation. [The trail was laid down in specific detail by Judge Collyer – SEE HERE]

♦ Subpoena former DOJ-NSD (National Security Division) head John Carlin, or haul him in front of a grand jury, and get his testimony about why he hid the abuse from the FISA court in October 2016; why the DOJ-NSD rushed the Carter Page application to beat NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers to the FISA court; and why Carlin quit immediately thereafter.

♦ Prove the Carter Page FISA application (October 2016) was fraudulent and based on deceptions to the FISA Court. Declassify the entire document, and release the transcripts of those who signed the application(s); and/or depose those who have not yet testified. The creation of the Steele Dossier was the cover-up operation. [SEE HERE]

♦ Release all of the Lisa Page and Peter Strzok text messages without redactions. Let sunlight pour in on the actual conversation(s) that were taking place when Crossfire Hurricane (July ’16) and the FISA Application (Oct ’16) were taking place.  The current redactions were made by the people who weaponized the intelligence system for political surveillance and spy operation.  This is why Page and Strzok texts are redacted!

√♦ Release all of Bruce Ohr 302’s, FBI notes from interviews and debriefing sessions, and other relevant documents associated with the interviews of Bruce Ohr and his internal communications. Including exculpatory evidence that Bruce Ohr may have shared with FBI Agent Joseph Pientka. [And get a deposition from this Pientka fella] Bruce Ohr is the courier, carrying information from those outside to those on the inside.

UPDATE August 9th:  Never-mind the Bruce Ohr 302’s, Judicial Watch sued to clear the chamber of this request….  Thanks.

 

Aug 28 2019

MAGAnomics – Consumer Confidence Index Beats Expectations – Assessment Index Highest in 19 Years…


Re-Posted from the Conservative tree house on August 27, 2019 by 

The efforts of the Wall Street pundits and financial class to talk the American consumer into creating a recession is failing. The Consumer Confidence Index remains at historic highs as U.S. workers/consumers are confident in their economic position. Yes, Main Street USA is optimistic about current and future expectations.

The Consumer Assessment Index, a measure of the percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are “good”, increased from 39.9 percent to 42.0; and the Present Situation Index is now at its highest level in nearly 19 years (Nov. 2000, 179.7).

These are all key indicators because the U.S. consumer is the engine of our economy.  The U.S. consumer generates over two-thirds of our GDP activity through purchases.  One of the strengths of the U.S. economy is our internal self-sufficiency; approximately 80 percent of all consumer goods created in the U.S. are purchased in the U.S. by U.S. consumers [we are not reliant on exports to sustain growth].

A strong jobs market means higher wages and benefits; those higher wages lead to more purchasing…. the purchasing demand leads to more manufacturing, competition and innovative product creation… which leads to more job openings, which creates upward pressure on wages.

The U.S. economic growth is a strongly self-sustaining process so long as the consumer is optimistic about the future.

This dynamic is exactly why corporate media pundits, pushing the preferred message of Wall Street, are attempting to convince the U.S. consumer that a recession is coming.

Those who oppose a strong Main Street are attempting to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

Bloomberg Economics

✔@economics

U.S. consumer confidence is at its highest level in 19 years https://bloom.bg/2zoRkvh 

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Aug 27 2019

A Technical Study in the Relationships of Solar Flux, Water, Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperatures, July 2019 Data


From the attached report on climate change for July 2019 Data we have the two charts showing how much the global temperature has actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere? To show this graphically Chart 8 was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up a bit over 30.0% from 1958 to July of 2019. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree.  Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) are almost un-measurable. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 40 % on the left and 4% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .30%; while CO2 has increased by 30.0% which is 100 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem? The numbers tell us no there isn’t.

The next chart is Chart 8a which is the same as Chart 8 except for the scales which are the same for both CO2 and Temperature. As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for the previous chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2. Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius. This is what the data shows no matter what the reasons are, so I have no idea how the IPCC gets to predict that the world will end in ten or even twenty years.

The full 39 page report explains how these charts were developed and why using NASA and NOAA data that are used without change to prove that The New Green Deal is not required and any attempt to complete that plan will be a worldwide disaster.

Click on the link below for the full report that you can download.

BLACKBODY TEMPERATURE 2019-07