The Rental Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted May 11, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

I reported how BlackRock is now the largest landlord in the US. Institutions have purchased hundreds of billions in real estate across the nation and have no plans to sell because rentals are a lucrative venture. Inventory is at a historic low and people simply cannot find a place to live if they need to relocate. Rental price gouging has reached astronomical levels and demand far outweighs supply.

There are eight prospective renters for each available apartment in the US, and the average occupancy rate is 94.2%. Of those occupied leases, 60.7% chose to renew. New housing grew by a measly 0.43% as building costs have increased substantially. The high-density state of New Jersey has become the most competitive real estate market in the US. This is particularly true for the northern part of the state, which is no surprise as the average cost for rent in NYC is $5,186 monthly. That price tag makes places like Los Angeles look cheap, with an average rental price of $2,600. Miami, the new Wall Street of the south, has become the second most competitive market in the US. Apartments in Miami-Dade County last an average of 33 days on the market if a unit even becomes available.

Housing is completely unaffordable and people with good-paying jobs are struggling to find a place to live if they do not already own. Purchasing property was once the smart financial choice, but that is out of reach for the average person. In fact, over three million Americans earning over $150,000 annually still choose to rent as there is simply no alternative at this time.

Rentals across America are almost at total capacity. The typical person locks in a 12-month lease, but the landlord (in most states) can raise the price at the end of that term and there are little protections for residents. In fairness to the landlords, their costs have increased substantially as well in terms of taxes, insurance, and maintenance. The price of a renewal increase is typically lower than what it would cost to relocate, aiding in the decision for the majority to renew their leases.

Where I live, we also face seasonal rental price gauging. Off-season one-bedrooms in the Tampa Bay area are over $2,000 monthly and rising. But once the “snow birds” return during the winter months, prices increase substantially. There is a 13% tax here on short-term rentals as well, but finding a full 12-month lease is increasingly difficult.

Adding to this crisis is the mass influx of migrants as cities across the nation develop ways to house tens of thousands of people at the expense of taxpaying citizens. Landlords typically require renters to earn 3X the monthly rental price as well, forcing many to leave the cities and more desirable areas even if they earn a good living.

Shelter costs are unsustainably high for both buyers and renters. People cannot find a place to live. Those who rent often become stuck in a cycle of renting perpetually, unable to save as all their income goes toward shelter.

The Largest Landlord in the US


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted May 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Anyone familiar with the housing market conditions post-pandemic knows that cash buyers and institutions consistently outbid the average buyer. I know a realtor who has spoken primarily to consultants working on behalf of companies, and they’re willing to purchase properties over-market on a consistent basis. They know they can buy these properties and rent them out for a fraction of what they paid because they have the liquidity to do so. Currently, BlackRock is the largest landlord in America, with over $120 billion in residential real estate.

BlackRock has invested significantly in mortgage securities since the pandemic. The company insists that they are not purchasing single-family homes, meaning they’re not flipping homes to resell. “Our focus is on building single-family rental housing that can be managed and operated similar to multifamily properties with dedicated property management, leasing and amenities,” the company’s website states. “Additionally, BlackRock invests in multifamily properties, apartment complexes, and other residential real estate.”

The goal is to own as much land as possible so that the people can become perpetual renters. BlackRock also is part of the World Economic Forum and promises “sustainability” and “ESG integration,” and is a member of GRESB (formerly the Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark). GRESB is the global standard for providing and acquiring real estate and infrastructure in a sustainable way.

BlackRock noted that “displacement” from the pandemic and other economic downturns will provide a great investment opportunity. “In the near-term, we expect dislocation and opportunity, yet there is greater dispersion between markets and sectors with logistics of storage, high-quality residential, and data centers having emerged as clear winners, while hotel, retail, and student housing will likely face a longer road to recovery.” They’ve been on top of the downturn in real estate since the beginning. This is not limited to the US as they have investments and branches worldwide.

BlackRock is one of many institutions purchasing land and real estate at a rapid pace. Invitation Homes, a BlackRock investor, owns over 80,000 single-family rentals in the US alone. Again, the goal is to profit off of rental income. This is another reason inventory is at a historic low and will remain tight since most institutions do not plan to sell the real estate they have acquired.

Only 32% of Lenders Profited on Mortgages in 2022


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Apr 13, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The talking heads have been warning of a housing crash, but that is not what Socrates indicated. The 30-year fixed rate is around 6.89% at the time of this writing. Housing costs continue to rise, causing the costs of servicing mortgage debt to rise. Housing inventory is limited, and a recent report explains why we saw mass layoffs in the banking sector. The demand is still there and it is a sellers’ market. Cash is king when it comes to real estate for those who can afford it. Mortgage lenders are in trouble. In fact, only 32% of mortgage companies were profitable in 2022 compared to 98% in 2020.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) recently announced that independent mortgage banks and subsidiaries of chartered banks lost around $301 for every mortgage they financed in 2022. This marks a 113% decline from the prior year’s average and the first-time banks are seeing losses on mortgage products. This is not 2008 when banks handed out loans to anyone who asked.

“The rapid rise in mortgage rates over a relatively short period of time, combined with extremely low housing inventory and affordability challenges, meant that both purchase and refinance volume plummeted,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The stellar profits of the previous two years dissipated because of the confluence of declining volume, lower revenues, and higher costs per loan.” Production costs reached a high of $10,624 per loan last year. Productivity was 1.5 loans originations per production employee, down from 2.5 per employee the year prior, and an indicator of why we are seeing layoffs in the banking sector. No one is refinancing at these rates either and most chose a fixed rate, as we saw what happened in 2008 with adjustable costs.

First-time mortgages reached an all-time high of $323,780 last year, up from $298,324, the largest annual increase since the MBA began collecting data. The increased cost of loans increased the cost of serving mortgages. The MBA expects volume to decline further in 2023 before rallying in 2024 and 2025. The banking crisis may lead to banks and lenders selling off their mortgage debts once they cannot afford to service the debt. Again, the housing crisis today is not relative to the 2008 crash.

Soros, Blackrock, and Bud Light (Ep. 1987) – 04/10/2023


The Dan Bongino Show Posted originally on Rumble on: Apr 10, 11:00 am EDT