Category Economic Subjects

Nov 5 2019

Norway – the Confusion in Trend


Armstrong Economics Blog/Scandinavia

Re-Posted Nov 5, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong.
Does Socrates have an explanation of what is happening to the Norwegian Kroner? All the financial newspapers and banks here in Norway are scratching their heads and don’t have an explanation of why it’s devaluating against the Euro and Dollar. The central bank of Norway has an interest rate of 1.50%, while Euro has an interest rate of -0.5%.
BT

ANSWER: Norway’s currency has been declining recently over concerns with regard to the US-China trade dispute given the fact that it is highly exposed to the US-China trade situation. Additionally, the sharp decline in crude oil prices has also impacted the currency given the oil and gas industry accounts for more than 1/20th of Norway’s gross domestic product and about 2/3rds of its exports. Therefore, Norway’s economy has been highly correlated with oil prices.

Nevertheless, in Korona, the price of oil is rising given the decline in the currency (click on the image). The analysis never looks at everything from an international perspective. Your currency is retesting the 2000 high in the dollar.

Categories: Scandinavi
Nov 4 2019

Misrepresenting Our Forecast for the Start of Big Bang 2015.75


Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecasts

Re-Posted Nov 3, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I find it really shocking how people are slandering you claiming you forecast that 2015.75 would be the collapse of everything instead of the peak in governments and the beginning of the decline and fall. You have made that very clear that this was the turning point to begin the change. It was the precise day Russia sent troops into Syria. It was the start of the massive migration of refugees to Europe. It was the start of the shift in politics that led to Trump’s victory the following year. It seems that there are people desperate to try to prevent others from listing to you. I think they are conspiring against the people.

HS

REPLY: I know. It is an outright misrepresentation of our forecasts and it is deliberate. Our post back in 2014 laid it out clearly:

“As we approach the start of BIG BANG (2015.75), which is 26 years from the first crack in Marxism 1989 first observed in China followed by the fall of the Berlin Wall within months, ever since the world has been drastically altered economically. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was part of this process. That was not a CIA plot, but the unraveling of the Marxist Era. We should witness dramatic political and economic changes going into 2020.05. The bottom of the ECM 2020.05 will also be 31.4 years from the start of the fall of Communism that should culminate in the final stages of the collapse of Socialism. This is part of the cause of BIG BANG that will become focused most intensely between 2015.75 and 2020.05.”

December 28, 2014

I think the collapse in the confidence of governments has been indeed the pronounced characteristic of this 4.3 year part of the wave. The European and Japanese Bond markets have been destroyed. Both governments are on life support. I think we have some very serious sovereign debt problems and we are looking at that on the state and municipal levels. Why would someone claim we have been wrong and misrepresent that there is no sovereign debt crisis? It certainly seems that they are spreading propaganda to help keep the banks and governments in play.

Socialism is making a major play to win the 2020 elections here in the States. We have an obvious coup unfolding against Trump carried out by the CIA, FBI, and NSA. This target is 31.4 years from the START of the fall of Communism. It is the START of this trend in Western Society NOT THE END!!!!!!!The 2020 election in the USA will be the most contentious since the 1960s and we should expect a rise in civil unrest. It will turn into a major political battle at the peak of the next wave – 2024.

They simply try to assume this is my personal opinion and they are incapable of looking at the global economy and how it is all connected. Focusing on a single component blinds them from seeing the whole.

I fully appreciate we can bring legal action against them and have sent that question to our lawyers.

Oct 31 2019

BREXIT The Collapse of Democracy


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Oct 31, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; You are more connected to BREXIT than any of these analysts. What is your view of this mess?

PH, London

 

ANSWER: What we are witnessing is the collapse of Democracy. The people voted for BREXIT and the losers do whatever they can to remain. Unfortunately, many of those in Parliament are in the REMAIN camp and have absolutely no rational evidence whatsoever why Britain is better in the EU than out. It is just political propaganda that remaining in the EU is somehow better than leaving. The Euro is a sinking ship and the REMAIN camp is honestly too stupid to even understand or objective enough to look at the trend.

Welcome to BREXIT, where the REMAIN camp has worked very hard to paralyze Westminster to crush the democratic process. Boris Johnson calls this the “zombie” parliament for it has accomplished nothing in three and a half years. Theresa May was in favor of the REMAIN Camp and this is what you get as a result.

The Britons will go on December 12th to a general election that will be dominated by the BREXIT issue and whether the country will go ahead and join the world economy of the sinking Eurozone. Less than 50% of Britain’s trade is with the Eurozone. Britain CANNOT cut a trade deal outside the EU because any of the members can veto any deal. Europe is pretending to be one nation, but it is a complete joke. Can you imagine if the president in the USA had to get the approval of all 50 states before he signed any trade deal? Nothing would ever get done. That is the structure of Europe.

The BREXIT Party of Nigel Farage is hoping to secure its first MPs in this December election. However, there is a split emerging between those who want to run in all 650 seats and others who would prefer to focus on a smaller, targeted list. The concern is that the BREXIT party could in some places hand a victory to a REMAIN candidate by splitting the vote. This is the concern about running in some areas. The fascinating aspect is that the computer pinpointed the week of December 9th as a Panic Cycle before the election was even announced. The question I have is the subtle movements of the markets apparently were indicating that there would be an election and they even targeted the week. This is just why Socrates is so much better than personal opinions that always begin with “I think” in some version or another. There is just so much more to how markets move than most people would ever imagine.