The Winter that Will Not End is impacting even northern Italy. In Tuscany, winemakers have lit hundreds of torches to keep their grapes warm during this cold period in order to save their crops. The temperatures have been cold and the crops have been subjected to frost at night that would otherwise ensure their demise. The farms have indeed sought to create global warming at a time when the politicians in Europe all agree that short-term flights by air should end to prevent global warming. The last cold spell like this with temperatures dropping below 1 degree celsius took place during May 1987. Temperatures below 0 celsius can wipe out the entire crop for the year

COMMENT: Good day from Chatham, Ontario Canada (50 miles east of Detroit 42.4048° N, 82.1910° W);
Interesting your models are warning of the next year’s results in climate change.

Our location is always the first to plant in Canada as it is the same latitude as northern California.
A few climate tidbits;

– As of today, May 18th, 2019, no farmers (zero) have started planting.
– In 3 years the percentage of April planting starts has decreased to 0% from 70% just 4 years ago. Typically planting was completed by mid to end of May.
– Flooding this year from Ottawa to Detroit along with cooler temperatures can wreak havoc on winter wheat crops which are planted in the fall and has germinated. But if the heat doesn’t come to dry up the land then the wheat crop is susceptible to rot.
– soil temperatures are below the 25-year average by 23 degrees.
– more rain means less sunshine.
– Songbirds in our area are unusual for May. Makes for a very noisy morning coffee.

Bird watchers reporting many species have not finished their normal migration north. Somehow they have stalled in lower latitudes knowing the northern food sources are not ready.
The birds singing is nice, but I would like to eat.
Best to you;

RH

REPLY: Others are reporting the same general trends. Some people write in and try to disagree with the forecasts. What they fail to understand is this is BY NO MEANS my “opinion” or what “I think” for I do not see myself as qualified on such a personal level to forecast such events since I am not a farmer and have never been. My grandfather had maybe an acre where he grew grapes, fruit trees, and some other things like tomatoes. He was not a professional farmer.

All I can do is report what the computer is projecting and I believe it does a far better job than human forecasting simply because it just goes by the data and extracts the patterns upon cycles. I take no pleasure in warning that we could be headed into a very rough patch for food production into 2024/2025 if we see a colder and longer winter again next year.

Al Gore in 2009 forecast that there would be no more ice by 2013. The BBC reported those crazy forecasts back in 2007. I have explained many times that the forecasting methods uses is to assume whatever trend is in motion will remain in motion forever. In other words, is the Dow Jones were to rally by 25% in one year, then they would predict that same percentage movement will continue forever. The methodology is completely void of any cyclical understanding how everything functions according to a cycle in the universe.