Nothing Can be Reduced to a Single Cause & Effect be it Markets or Nature


QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,

Thanks for the Socrates forecast.

Just a question. What will possibly happen to existing Tropic Belt countries like my region South East Asia when the world is turning into global cooling? Any forecast?

Regards,

SS

ANSWER: I am awaiting their data to run it through and see what comes out. This is what I mean about opinion. How can anyone forecast something without the data? What we do know is also that the Jet Stream moves up and down, so it would make sense that the Tropic Belt would also do the same. The Jet Stream has been dipping as well and creating a very diverse curve pattern. So this produced the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record last year. This is also why you have people who want to claim it is irrelevant if people die of cold in Wales. They argue that since it is warm where they are in Canada, it must prove that Global Warming is real. They are not the brightest bulb in the box.

Then we have the Pacific Jet Stream. These people who always try to reduce any effect to a single cause should be barred from any research EVER!!! If you want to understand how interconnected our planet is then you also need to look at and study El Niño. The interconnectivity is similar to all the world financial markets, which create a level of complexity beyond most human’s ability to rationalize. Both the weather system and the financial system function on an extremely high level of complexity. The patterns and events in one place can affect life on the other side of the planet in both systems.

Hence, one person will argue it is Global Warming because they happen to be in a hot spot and others are dying in blizzard conditions. I moved to the Tampa area where hopefully the Jet Stream does not bring ice on my windshield. Nevertheless, it has been unseasonably cold here as well and it has even dipped into the 30s at night as far south as Miami.

Then we have the real simple minded people who actually believe we would drown if all the ice melted in the Arctic. They have completely forgotten about EVAPORATION. If the ice melted, that water would mix with the Atlantic and Pacific, causing them to become colder. But then the Arctic would be able to evaporate. This is how Ice Ages take place for a very long time because the water returns as snow and that is how the glaciers build.

There have been at least five major ice ages in the Earth’s history (the Huronian, Cryogenian, Andean-Saharan, Karoo Ice Age, and the current Quaternary Ice Age). Aside from these ages, the Earth seems to have been ice-free even in high latitudes. This is a historical fact that the Global Warming people ignore. Based upon the data we have gathered, there appears to be a cycle of 430 million years. This agrees with the 8.6-year frequency. The last Ice Age was the Quaternary glaciation, which was actually a series of glacial events separated by interglacial events. This began 2.58 million years ago, so at least according to our models, we have plenty of spare time left in this cycle. However, the ice caps today that the Global Warming people are screaming about are the remnants of that period. There is a bottom to the Arctic ice cap. The Antarctic ice sheet actually began to form earlier (about 34 million years ago) in the mid-Cenozoic to late Cenozoic Ice Age period. That means there have been periods that existed without ANY ice caps. We cannot blame even Egyptians for climate change since civilization did not exist back in those days.

This is my problem with the whole Global Warming nonsense being attributed to humans. I would agree if they could show me evidence that such a condition NEVER existed previously before the Industrial Revolution. To me, this is just a cycle and we should respect that the planet if a far more complex system than these idiots put out. NOTHING can ever be reduced to a single cause and effect.

 

Climate Change & Commodities


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I love the fact that you look at everything from a pure cyclical perspective. Al Gore who started this whole mess was not a climatologist. He was a politician. You are 100% correct that people will believe what they want to believe. There is no talking to one of this idiots. When there is a food shortage, they will be the first to advocate taking food from those who did prepare. Did wheat rise in value during the Dust Bowl because of the decline in supply? They don’t have wheat charts that go back that far on ____ system.

WP

ANSWER: You cannot forecast the future of anything in isolation. I only look at the cycles. The computer correlates absolutely everything including the weather. The correlation models show that we are heading into a colder period. This is when crops fail and the ground freezes as far down as two feet, which makes winter crops impossible. We are also heading into a solar minimum and that is when there are far more volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. All I can say is that it appears that when the ECM turns, the next wave will be back to an inflationary run and we should also see a rise in commodity prices. We have two major trends behind that: 1) weather, and 2) fiscal mismanagement resulting in currency value changes.

The Dust Bowl Rally in wheat was about 245% advance 420 to 1452. What also came into play, interestingly enough, was the devaluation of the dollar in 1934 from $20.67 for one ounce of gold to $35. That was effectively a near 70% devaluation of the dollar. We are approaching our Monetary Crisis Cycle, which will again mark the decline in purchasing power of world currencies. Just maybe we will see a very similar convergence of trends that took place during the Dust Bowl era.

Victor Davis Hanson Discusses Pelosi Cancelling the State of the Union


Published on Jan 24, 2019

SUBSCRIBE 58K
Victor Davis Hanson on The Laura Ingraham Podcast (1/24/2019) 📲 Sponsor me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ConservativeC…

Top Military Diplomat from Venezuela Breaks With Maduro and Supports Guaido…


Venezuela dictator Nicolas Maduro has broken-off diplomatic relations with the U.S. and demanded all attache’s to return home.  However the top Venezuela military attache within the U.S. has now backed President Juan Guaido as the legitimate president and will remain in the U.S.

(Via Miami Herald) The military attaché at the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington, Col. José Luis Silva, broke with the Nicolás Maduro regime Saturday and urged other armed forces members to recognize Juan Guaidó as the legitimate interim president of the South American nation.

“As the Venezuelan defense attaché in the United States, I do not recognize Mr. Nicolás Maduro as president of Venezuela,” Silva told el Nuevo Herald in a telephone interview from Washington, D.C.

“My message to all armed forces members, to everyone who carries a gun, is to please let’s not attack the people. We are also part of the people, and we’ve had enough of supporting a government that has betrayed the most basic principles and sold itself to other countries,” he added.

Silva, like all other Venezuelan diplomatic mission staffers in the United States, was ordered to return home after Maduro announced he was breaking diplomatic relations with Washington because it had recognized Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela.  (read more)

The British Press


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion

Merkel & Macron Signing Treaty to Create a European Army


Merkel and Macron, two politicians who cannot muster even a majority of their people for support, signed a Franco-German friendship treaty which has allowed them to boast that this is the first step to creating a European Army. There is a mad rush behind the curtain to create a European Army, not to protect Europe from Putin, but to protect the government in Brussels from the people they rule. They are very much aware that the best way to secure power is to have a foreign army.

Nike-Riot

In Constantinople during the Byzantine Empire, Emperor Justinian faced the same issue as Macron — a rising discontent. The local lack of support from both the police and military of the Emperor embolden the people to rise up. They went as far as to declare a new emperor, Hypatius. Justinian was about to flee the city for his life when his wife stopped him. She pointed to an army outside the city which was not made up of local Greeks. He ordered the army to enter the city to protect him. They slaughtered what we would call today the Yellow Vests, killing some 30,000 protesters.

This lesson of the Nika Revolt (January 13, 532 AD) is perhaps not openly discussed in public circles, but it is WELL KNOWN behind the curtain. This is why they need a European Army for Greeks would have no problem killing Germans when ordered and Germans would have not problem killing Italians when ordered. The key to maintaining order is always to use police/troops that are NEVER local.

Hopefully, that political ploy will fail before it can really come into play

When will Niagara Falls Completely Freeze?


It has been a bitterly cold season. Niagara Falls became a winter wonderland as frigid temperatures cause the falls to turn to ice. This is not so rare as people claim. In this 1911 photo of the Great Freeze, you can still see water flowing, but minimal and nowhere near the normal volume flow (hundreds of thousands of gallons per second) that we see in summer. Niagara Falls was a famous tourist spot. I remember as a child my parents traveling there to see the splendor. It use to be a big honeymooners’ destination before air travel. Historically, Niagara Falls does “freeze” but it is extremely rare to “completely” freeze.

The Falls have a lot of ice on them today during this bitterly cold winter. But they have not reach the historic cold period at the beginning of the 20th century. Still, cyclically speaking, it is right on time. The cold we have witnessed so far is ideally going to peak probably around 2023. Perhaps at that point in time we will see the falls also almost freeze completely. The only recorded incident of the Niagara Falls completely freezing so NO WATER flowed appeared to be 1848. That was the only documented incident on record when Niagara Falls was frozen completely during March of 1848. It was the Buffalo Express Newspaper that reported the shocking complete freeze was caused by ice damming at the mouth of Lake Erie. Our model indicates that if we see colder temperature BEYOND2023, then cyclically the peak will unfold in 2037.

 

The Clash Between Normal People & The Global Warming Crowd – Green Extremist Overlords


There is an undertone lurking behind the rise of Donald Trump in the US, the Brexiteers in the UK, Marine Le Pen in France, political re-alignments in Denmark, and the election of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. Additionally, there is the change in governments in Mexico, Malaysia, and the civil unrest in Romania. They are all joined by the sudden rise of the “Yellow Vests” in Paris, who are spreading internationally. The combination of these events show that an increasing number of people are fed up with who many call the “Green Overlords.” They have been out to reduce population and the living standard of the average person. There is a general rise in civil unrest, which is driven by decades of raising taxes on the tax payers and destroying the retirement of people who worked their entire lives. The middle class has been battered by the Green movements who are sheltered, enjoying the air conditioned and heated offices of the UN and Greenpeace.

These Green elites have become known as the “Green Overlords” and have been supported by people like Al Gore, the Clintons, Obamas, corporate media pretending to be the free press, and of course Hollywood. In Europe, they have imposed taxes per head on cows and a 2020 deadline to move to electric cars. Their European champions have been Merkel in Germany; Prince Charles, former PM David Cameron, the BBC in Britain, and Macron in France. In Canada, Trudeau imposed a $1,000 global warming tax per home/apartment. Many have seen being Green as a justification for more tax revenue.

This group of Green Overlords has created a powerful global network to wage an endless war on the on the combustion engine as well as coal and nuclear power. They are reversing the basic, cheap, reliable electricity that the entire world has relied upon. They have attacked farmers and fishermen in a real effort to reduce the food supply in hopes of reducing population growth. They take their theory from mice who are known to have fewer offspring when the food supply declines. They have waged a war to tax the diesel vehicles. All of this has reduced jobs, and then politicians believe that allowing the importation of “refugees” will increase the tax rolls. They have waged a war and conquered schools and universities to instill their propaganda in the minds of the younger generation. They even created environmental degrees for jobs that do not exist. Their global warming dogma has taken over the government, the media, and education to push their agenda. The rise of the Yellow Vests is clearly a direct confrontation against this Green agenda.

Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi to Run for EU Seat


Silvio Berlusconi announced his candidacy for European elections in May due to a “sense of responsibility.” Indeed, this may be the best thing that ever happened. The EU pulled off a coup secretly behind the scenes to drive him from office because he wanted to take Italy out of the euro to save his country. Our deep sources all confirmed the EU intervened in the Italian elections to remove Berlusconi, which was effectively a coup back in 2013.

Southern Europe has been seriously disrupted from joining the euro. They were forced to convert their past debts to euros and then the euro doubled in value, causing their real world national debts to double in terms of international value. Is it any wonder their economies have been in a death spiral? Unemployment among the youth has reached 60% in some regions, and they are now known as “The Lost Generation.”

The May elections for the EU are looking like a lot more anti-EU and people will be taking up seats in Brussels.

May Survives No-Confidence Vote but has until Monday 21st to present New Proposal


The British pound moved higher following the British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government narrowly surviving a no confidence vote brought by the opposition over the handling of BREXIT. The vote was narrow with May winning by just 19 votes. Our sources were correct that she would survive. However, while the 21st seems to be a target date of our models, the prime minister  has just three days to propose an alternative deal – that is January 21st. I find it curious how the computer picks weeks in advance of political events the targets for market movements that are driven by politics. There is clearly something beyond the headlines that the computer picks up.