Tag Archives: Communism

Sep 19 2025

Coffee Prices on the Rise


Posted originally on Sep 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Coffee

Coffee prices are the latest grocery item troubling American consumers. The United States is the world’s largest importer of coffee, but produces less than 0.1% of all coffee for domestic consumption, importing over $8.2 billion (1.6 metric tons) of coffee last year alone. The average retail price of coffee spiked 21% in the past year, marking the sharpest rise since the late 1990s.

Tariffs are certainly part of the problem. Brazil produces around 37% of the world’s coffee, but now faces a 50% tariff on coffee beans. The average price of Brazilian coffee now sits around $6 per pound. Brazil also experienced a depleted harvest in 2024-25 due to drought and unfavorable weather conditions. The harvest was 9% beneath traditional levels. Global production rose by 4.3 million bags, but was offset by lower stocks, and prices remained high. The US spent $1.41 billion last year on Brazilian coffee alone, and a 50% tariff in addition to increased prices is causing grocers and retailers to raise prices.

Brazil and Colombia primarily focus on Arabica beans, with Colombia being America’s second-highest importer. In far contrast to Brazil, Colombia’s tariff sits at 10%. Still, the US purchased $1.4 billion in coffee beans from Colombia last year and any levy will be felt by consumers. Colombia’s 2024-25 coffee harvest was extremely robust at 13.2 million bags, a 23% increase from the previous year. Farmers believe production will fall by 5.3% in the coming harvest due to weakening La Nina conditions and heavy rain.

Vietnam supplies 17% of the world’s coffee, but the US mainly relies on South America for imports. Vietnam’s tariff sits at 20% and many roasters have complained that this is affecting their bottom line. Same with Indonesia, which has a 19-32% levy.

Brazilian coffee exports to the US have fallen by nearly 46% since tariffs were imposed. While the US consumed 15% of Brazilian coffee exports, Germany was close behind at 14% and has surpassed the US to become the top buyer. It is undeniable that tariffs on Brazil have caused a spike in US coffee prices, which has been exacerbated by a weak harvest.

Sep 18 2025

French Pensioners Earn More than Working Adults


Posted originally on Sep 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Pension Crisis

The average French pensioner receives a larger payout than working-aged adults. France has one of the highest replacement rate packages of any OECD nation at around 74% of average earnings. The French government spends an astounding 14% of GDP on the unsustainable pension system.

The average pension in France is around €1,626 gross per month, and pensioners earn around 2% more than the working adults propping up those pensions. The average American pensioner earns about a sixth less than working adults, UK retirees earn about a fifth less, while Australians earn around a third less than their working counterparts, according to Fortune. The amount demanded by retirees has increased proportionally over recent years, as have taxes on the working public, who now pay 8.55% of their income into the pension system.

Widespread pension reform protests took place in 2023 when we saw protesters attempt to burn down the BlackRock office in Paris after the retirement age was raised from 62 to 64. “The meaning of this action is quite simple. We went to the headquarters of BlackRock to tell them: the money of workers, for our pensions, they are taking it,” a protestor told a CNN affiliate. The protest was organized and the message was clear. The Parisians are not allowing government mismanagement to change their retirement plans. They have been promised an easy retirement and paid into the system. The government has been unable to fulfill its promises and the people perceive any reforms as an unfair betrayal.

The deficit for pensions is estimated to grow to €15 billion by 2035 and then to around €30 billion a couple of years later. The European Union requires member states to maintain a budget deficit below 3% but only 17 of the 27 members have met that target. French Economy Minister Eric Lombard is eager to lower the public deficit, aiming for 5.4% of GDP in 2025, followed by 3% in 2029.

France is facing a fiscal crisis of its own making. The government has consistently failed to address the core structural issues, instead relying on higher taxes and superficial spending cuts, which only serve to undermine economic growth. The public deficit, now surpassing 5.6% of GDP, is spiraling out of control, and the government’s projections to bring it under the EU’s arbitrary 3% threshold by 2029 are nothing more than wishful thinking. History has shown that governments never truly cut spending—they merely shift the burden through taxation, stifling private sector expansion.

Cover Pension Crisis

This is why politicians want war with Russia as a diversion. They desperately need an excuse in the face of a crumbling monetary system. No one is buying government debt. The solution is to rob the pension funds to eliminate the need to issue bonds to cover expenses. That move will only undermine confidence in the EU and result in further civil unrest. Negative interest rates have robbed savers of income since 2014, but the world refuses to move away from Keynesian economics.

France and the rest of the Western world have a growing aging population paired with a massive decline in birth rates. These nations attempted to open borders to compensate for the lack of workers, but instead, the public became saddled with more debt as they were forced to pay for the newcomers.

Nothing is more inflationary than war, and Macron is eager to send off French troops to Ukraine as he closely aligns with Brussels to spur on the next major war. Confidence will decline, capital will flee, and interest expenditures will continue to rise. France risks a debt crisis that will only accelerate the collapse of the EU’s financial system. As I’ve warned before, the trend is clear: governments refuse to reform until they are left with no choice. The question is not if, but when, France will face the reckoning of its fiscal mismanagement.

Sep 18 2025

Bolsonaro Fined for Insulting a Hairstyle


Posted originally on Sep 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Bolsonaro Brazil

Jair Bolsonaro will spend the rest of his life in a Brazilian prison for inciting a coup that never happened. Bolsonaro’s public humiliation ritual is far from over as the establishment is using him as an example for anyone who dares to voice a dissenting opinion. The latest ruling determined that the former president must pay R$1m ($188,435.55 USD) for insulting a hairstyle, which the courts deemed racist.

The federal court of the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul examined a statement Bolsonaro made in 2021 when he insulted a black man by calling his afro a “breeding ground for cockroaches.” Insulting? Certainly. Racist? It seems to be a far stretch. The man with the afro told the courts that he did not believe it was a racist remark, and in fact, he had voted for Bolsonaro. He believed that it was a joke. I recall hearing similar sentiments about white men with long hair back in the day. People have been insulting long, “dirty” hairstyles on men for ages.

“Racial offence disguised as jocular remarks or mere jokes, linking Black power hair to insects associated with disgust and dirt, harms the honour and dignity of Black people and reinforces the stigma of inferiority of this population,” said Judge Roger Raupp Rios. The man he allegedly insulted did not feel offended. The establishment wants the people to view the remark as an insult to an entire race of people to further political division and to stifle free speech.

Again, the man did not file charges against Bolsonaro for the poorly worded joke. Public prosecutors and the public defender’s office took it upon themselves to persecute Bolsonaro for that statement and two separate remarks made during a 2021 live stream with supporters in front of the presidential palace. Prosecutors were initially seeking a R$10m fine for perceived “recreational racism.”

The Brazilian government was also ordered by the court to pay R$1m since Bolsonaro was in office at the time. The attack on free speech is global. The establishment is warning the public that they may not speak freely without severe punishment. Something said years ago could be used against you in courts today. Bolsonaro is a 70-year-old man and will likely die in prison for a crime he did not commit. The establishment behind big government is stronger than most could imagine.

Sep 18 2025

Fed Cuts 25BPS


Posted originally on Sep 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Federal Reserve Bank

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points, setting the new target range at 4 percent to 4.25 percent. The Fed statement was clear, with one dissenter, Stephen Miran, who recently joined.

“Recent indicators suggest that the growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated,” the FOMC said in a statement.

The market was widely expecting a 25 basis point cut in rates, as our computer has been forecasting for months that any cut would be in September, not before. However, there were the typical groups of questionable analysts touting that a 50 basis point cut could lead to a more significant market rally.

With the prospect of war on the horizon and a sovereign debt crisis brewing in the EU, there are realistic expectations for a continued decline. The risk is that Trump will interfere in the Fed, leading to a loss of confidence worldwide, which would result in unrealistic interest policy into early 2026. There remains the risk of another cut during the next quarter.

Fed Discoint CBDR Q 9 17 25
Sep 17 2025

Thailand Thinking About Taxing Gold?


Posted originally on Sep 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Thai_Baht M Tech 9 16 25

QUESTION: Marty, here in Thailand, aside from freezing 3 million people’s accounts and bending to the OECD to hunt taxes for the Europeans, now we have the central bank is talking about imposing a tax on trading gold because of the right in the baht. Is Thailand committing economic suicide?

FJ

Thailand Central Bank

ANSWER: It appears that the Baht will peak against the dollar, perhaps here in September. Arguing to tax gold because of the rise in the currency is on par with the markets. We still show a Panic Cycle in 2026 for Thailand. The combination of these decisions and the tensions with Cambodia does not project peace and harmony for Thailand into 2026.

Sep 16 2025

Quarterly vs Semi-Annual Earnings Reports


Posted originally on Sep 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Balance Sheet

President Donald Trump believes that companies should cease reporting on a quarterly basis and switch to semiannual reports instead. Trump said that the concept is “subject to SEC approval” and would “save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies.”

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett also once voiced support for semiannual reporting. “In our experience, quarterly earnings guidance often leads to an unhealthy focus on short-term profits at the expense of long-term strategy, growth and sustainability,” the pair wrote in an op-ed piece for the Wall Street Journal in 2018.

The SEC currently has a 3-1 Republican voting majority, but why does this seem to be a bipartisan issue? The issue is global, in fact, as Norway’s sovereign wealth fund recently proposed switching to semiannual reporting, and the UK and Europe do not currently require quarterly reports. Providing the consumer and investor with less, infrequent information alludes to bad news. Companies would willingly share praise of quarterly earnings with the public if they were bullish on their future, but in the current stagflationary trend, companies are cautious. Those at the top are losing confidence in their company’s ability to meet or exceed expectations.

Dimon and Buffett argued that the public’s attention should be on the long-term results. That aligns with Buffett’s buy and hold strategy but does not work for most portfolios that require investment strategy changes based on incoming data. In Trump’s personal predicament, the price adjustments due to tariffs are a reason to halt quarterly reporting.

Still, lowering transparency raises market risk, and the markets do not respond well to volatility. Columbia Law School published an article that looked at the 2017 regulatory adjustment on the Tel-Aviv Exchange (TASE) when small-cap firms switched from mandatory quarterly reports to semi-annual updates. “The  stocks of firms that chose that option dropped an average of 2 percent in price in a window of (-5,+5) days,” the analysis found. “Conversely, the stock of firms that chose to continue quarterly reporting rose an average of 2.5 percent over an immediate window of (-5,+5) days.”

The study also noted that while compliance costs dropped by 19.8% by eliminating two annual reports, the firms that chose to maintain four annual reports did not see a significant change in audit fees. There was a clear trade-off between cost reduction and maintaining investor confidence, the study noted.

The US markets cannot be compared to the TASE, and that 2% reduction in investment would likely rise for US firms, as consumer confidence is absolutely paramount. The proposition of semi-annual reports stems from the belief that companies will be unable to provide optimistic earnings reports. Reducing reporting fees is not the concern, and the repercussions are vast as massive portfolio shifts would ensue as investors and money managers need to reduce risks and would be less likely to take short-term risks if the data is unavailable to them. Reducing transparency would shake up confidence in the markets overall, and as mentioned, capital does not like volatility.

Sep 15 2025

Albania Appoints AI Minister


Posted originally on Sep 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Albania has adopted the world’s first AI “minister” in an attempt to combat corruption. Diella, the female-voiced AI entity, will be a “member of the Cabinet who is not present physically but has been created virtually,” Prime Minister Edi Rama stated, adding that the robot would ensure that “public tenders will be 100% free of corruption” since current government employees cannot be trusted.

Microsoft helped to assemble Dinella—red flag number one. The robot will receive access to 1 million digital documents, including sensitive government information. The advancements in AI are ingenious but not sentient. Dinella has been programmed and, therefore, is prone to biases.

The irony is that in turning to artificial intelligence, the people are acknowledging that human government has completely failed. I have said before that many have proposed replacing judges, regulators, and even politicians with AI, as if a machine will somehow be impartial. The problem, of course, is not the hardware but the software. Who writes the code? Who programs the “ethics”? If government controls the AI, then it is nothing more than an automated extension of the same corruption. AI becomes a weaponized bureaucracy, enforcing whatever the ruling elite rules.

Rama’s Socialist Party has its eyes set on European Union membership, believing it can rid its nation of corruption ahead of negotiations in 2027. It is unclear if lawmakers will have the ability to vote on Diella’s post as minister, or whether the public will have an opportunity to vote for AI-driven politicians.

Society has fallen to the point that robots are trusted more than human beings. Do people believe that a robot can properly represent them or lead? “[The] Prime Minister’s buffoonery cannot be turned into legal acts of the Albanian state,” said Gazmend Bardhi, parliamentary group leader of the Democrats.

AI is only as honest as its programmer, and if Microsoft is involved, I have little hope of Dinella’s moral coding. Appointing a robot as minister is an extremely desperate move by the Albanian government to restore public trust. This is not a technological milestone but a glaring warning of lost confidence in a failing political system.

Sep 15 2025

Drugmaker Calls Britain “Uninvestable”


Posted originally on Sep 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

pills scaled

Business flees when it feels it is unwanted, and the Labour Party has created an environment that repels capital. A wave of pharmaceutical companies are pulling out of the United Kingdom due to a climate that has become “uninvestable.”

AstraZeneca has become one of the latest companies to pull back on investments due to excessive regulation and taxation. “We constantly reassess the investment needs of our company and can confirm our expansion in Cambridge is paused. We have no further comment to make,” a spokesperson said. The company decided to pause a 200 million pound ($271.26 million) investment in Cambridge that was slated to created 1,000 new jobs. The company first terminated a 450 million pound investment in northern England back in January, citing a lack of support from the UK government.

Merck Pharmaceuticals terminated a £1bn (US$1.35bn) research and development project in London and called the UK “uninvestable.” The drugmaker plans to abandon its London Bioscience Innovation Centre and the Francis Crick Institute by the end of the year due to the lack of investment in the life science industry and the overall undervaluation of innovative medicines and vaccines by successive UK governments.”

“Simply put, the UK is not internationally competitive,” a Merck spokesperson stated.

The NHS tightly regulates drug prices, yet spends only 9% of its budget on medicines compared to other OECD nations that spend between 14-20%. Only 37% of new drugs are fully reimbursed for their licensed use, whereas the figure is 90% in Germany and likely higher in the US. The government expects businesses to pay them a large portion of their revenue. Drugmakers face a 23.5% levy on new drugs as of 2025. Why would a pharmaceutical company research and develop new products in a nation that demands nearly a quarter of the profits?

Foreign investment in life sciences is down 58% since 2017 across the UK. Comparatively, investment in research and development (R&D) fell 1.9% on a global basis. Tight price controls, high government levies, and regulatory red tape have caused multi-billion-dollar investments to flee. Drugmakers are beginning to pour investments into the US instead, where they receive generous incentives and lower taxes.

Sep 15 2025

Former President Jair Bolsonaro Sentenced to 27 Years


Posted originally on Sep 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been sentenced to 27 years in prison for allegedly plotting a coup to overturn the presidential election. Politicians who defy the new world order are silenced through assassination or imprisonment. This has become a worldwide phenomenon, from Germany to Brazil, as politicians who rebuke the globalist agenda are receiving massive support from the people, and eliminating opposition is the only way for current regimes to remain in power.

2023_10_17_21_35_55_Bolsonaro_was_engineer_of_wilful_coup_attempt_Brazil_congress_inquiry_alleges

The Brazilian people independently denied the results of the 2022 election and stormed government buildings on January 8, 2022, a week after Lula was inaugurated. The Federal Police uncovered a draft of a coup announcement at the home of former Justice Minister Anderson Torres. After months of detainment, Torres maintained that the document, which he received from a private citizen, was taken out of context and held no legal validity. The plans outlined in the document never occurred, but the establishment maintains that Bolsonaro is a threat to Brazilian democracy.

As our computer warned, there would be intense, politically motivated civil unrest worldwide in November 2022. Ahead of the election, Brazil’s leftist opposition Workers’ Party (PT) Marcelo Arruda was enjoying his birthday celebration in the city of Foz de Iguacu, Parana, when he was shot dead. The vote of 49.1%-50.9% was the closest Brazilian presidential election in history since 1985 and marked Bolsonaro’s first political defeat. Bolsonaro supporters held mass protests across the nation to protest Lula’s victory and blocked hundreds of major roadways. Bolsonaro first sided with the protestors, saying they felt “indignation and a sense of injustice.”

The intense backlash from across the globe caused Bolsonaro to change course. “I know you are upset… Me too. But we have to keep our heads straight,” Bolsonaro said in a video posted online. “I will make an appeal to you: clear the highways.” Bolsonaro confirmed with Brazil’s Supreme Court that he would willingly hand over power to Lula. “I have always played within the four lines of the constitution,” he said, without declaring defeat. Bolsonaro is already barred from running for office until 2030. The establishment wants to ensure that he is never up for reelection.

Bolsonaro of Brazil

The Brazilian Supreme Court rules in a 4-5 vote to convict Bolsonaro on all five charges, carrying a sentence of 27 years and 3 months in prison. There is no concrete evidence against Bolsonaro. There was no coup. No election was overturned and Bolsonaro did not attempt to take power after his defeat. Bolsonaro has evaded assassination in the past. Lula was desperate to find a reason to prevent Bolsonaro from running for office before the probationary period ended, and the Brazilian courts acted as weapons of the state.

The Brazilian government did not deter unrest; rather, they ensured it.

Sep 14 2025

LIVE: Anti-Immigration Activist Tommy Robinson Leads Rally in London | ‘Unite The Kingdom’


Posted originally on Rumble on By Bannon’s War Room on: September, 13, 2025