Posted originally on CTH on July 29, 2025 | Sundance
The reality of the U.S-Canada economic relationship and the position of President Donald Trump is not that difficult to understand if you take all the disparate datapoints and quotes from Trump and put them into context.
During a White House meeting with Mark Carney, President Trump essentially told the Canadian Prime Minister why he was in no hurry to get to a deal with Canada.
The 35% tariffs on non-USMCA goods are going to trigger on August 1st, because the main priority of Trump -looking toward Canada- is to dissolve the USMCA.
During the May 6th oval office meeting with Carney, President Trump was discussing the USMCA and said: “As you know it terminates fairly shortly. It gets renegotiated fairly shortly.” … “This was a transitional deal, and we’ll see what happens, we’re going to start renegotiating that” … “I don’t know if it serves a purpose anymore.” …. “And the biggest purpose it served was, we got rid of NAFTA.”
To understand why President Trump wants to dissolve the USMCA {SEE HERE}. To understand the technical value of dissolving the USMCA {SEE HERE}. It’s not a complicated economic analysis; it’s common sense.
Currently, approximately 60% of the traded goods and services between the U.S. and Canada are covered by the USMCA; the remaining 40% will be hit by tariffs on August 1st at a 35% rate.
When the USMCA is renegotiated, predictably dissolved in favor of two bilateral trade agreements – one for Mexico and one for Canada, all of the U.S-Canada trade sectors will be part of the enlarged free trade negotiation. As a result, there is absolutely no motive to engage in trade discussions now.
♦ President Trump’s position is essentially to talk about the details when the USMCA is dissolved; hence, the ambivalence.
Politico is noting the Canadian trade team simply doesn’t understand this. “[D]espite months of back and forth, the terms for a deal have not yet been set, a senior government source said, with the White House informing the Canadian side that Trump is more focused on securing deals with other partners like India.”
(Politico cont..) […] Earlier this month, Canada conceded that any deal with Trump is likely to include tariffs.
Carney’s government wants stability around the tariffs Trump invoked using Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.
They are crushing Canada’s auto, steel, aluminum and forestry industries. Trump also plans to hit imported copper with 50 percent tariffs starting Aug. 1 — with semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports likely to follow.
Canada ultimately wants the tariffs eliminated or lowered to a fixed level that doesn’t fluctuate, the senior government official said. “If we know what world we’re going into, then we can have better plans and policies to attract investment.”
Canada’s premiers say the unpredictability is punishing the economy.
“Private investment is not growing because everybody’s on pause,” Quebec Premier François Legault told reporters last week. “They are waiting to see what will happen. I’ve been in business — it’s about the worst thing you can have is uncertainty.” (read more)
The certainty the Canadians are looking for can be found easily if they stop pretending.
(1) U.S. tariffs against non-USMCA products from Canada will go into effect on August 1st. (2) As soon as the USMCA is reopened, it will be dissolved. (3) After the USMCA dissolution, a bilateral free trade agreement between the USA and Canada will be negotiated.
Every current effort by Canada to change the nature of the trade system, between now and the reopening of the USMCA (to dissolve it), is futile.
Again, I’m not exactly sure why this reality is so challenging for the Canadian govt to understand.
Posted originally on Jul 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, they call you the legend since you have been calling markets and trends for decades. It is not hard to see that you are perhaps the greatest trader of all time. You are famous for not calling the 1987 Crash, but the very day of the low, you called the low and said that the market would make new highs by 1989. You did the same in 2009 even Barrons reported that call that the market would make new highs when everyone else was calling for a depression.
Others claiming to be analysts hate you because they do not have the trading skills you display, in addition to Socrates. When you said the low would be April 7, I spoke to many people who laughed and said No way. When I talked to others I met at your Conference, they said never be on the opposite side of a call like that.
Was this your Scheme Frequency Model that you refuse to publish because governments could abuse it to topple governments? Or was this your cyclical stochastic that I notice with hindsight went to zero the day before?
Care to give us a hint?
Jef
ANSWER: These calls to the day have been the Scheme Frequency, not the Stochastic. Nonetheless, you can use the Cycle-Infused Stochastic, which differs for each market as the computer determines the frequency mix. The short-term Blue in the Stochastic hit ZERO the day before. With hindsight at the end of the day, the Blue turned up confirming the forecast was correct. But the April 7th forecast was made well before.
The Array was published on the Private Blog on April 7th, along with a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle the very next day, which should have been to the upside. There are 72 separate models in this Array. Neither the Scheme nor the Economic Confidence Model is included. Three computers are analyzing every market, from trading patterns to various definitions of volatility, including intraday and overnight. The top line represents the aggregate meaning, which is the sum of 72 models. The accuracy is (1) no human opinion or emotion, and (2) it is a correlation of analysis rather than a single model or one that requires human opinion, like Elliot Wave, where two people using the same theory reach different conclusions.
Look, I am sorry, what should have been a discovery for the betterment of humanity was a target for power. What I discovered will die with me. I cannot allow them to get their hands on it. When the CIA asked me to build the model for them, I offered to run whatever study they wanted. Their response was – They had to own it.
Crossfire Hurricane was the code name for the counterintelligence investigation undertaken by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) from July 31, 2016, to May 17, 2017. It was when FBI director James Comey raised suspicions of obstruction of justice, which triggered the Mueller investigation. James Comey was the head of the DOJ in NYC, who was keeping me in contempt indefinitely until the Supreme Court ordered the government to explain what the hell was going on. Then they had to release me. My case centered around the attempted regime change they were orchestrating to seize control of Russia, which I refused to participate in. Then Comey even “interviewed” Hillary and took no notes, so she could never be prosecuted. The FBI always takes notes in a proffer session. Then, was Comey involved in Crossfire Hurricane? I believe Comey was well aware of what was going on in NYC.
I was kept in prison without even a description of a crime. Ask any lawyer if this was legal. There is no rule of law in the United States. Justice is spelled “JUST US” and you are a fool if you think they give a shit about anything other than their own power. They circumvent Congress, and most judges do whatever the government tells them to order. They tortured me. They throw you in a cell that is so hot, underwear is too much. Then they throw you in a cell that is so cold you can see your breath with nothing to keep you warm. Because the courts claim that torture is defined as leaving a mark on your body, so anything they do, like waterboarding, is not torture.
Torture is defined under U.S. law (18 U.S.C. § 2340) and the UN Convention Against Torture as severe physical/mental pain or suffering intentionally inflicted. Waterboarding (simulated drowning) has been prosecuted as torture by the U.S. itself (e.g., post-WWII trials of Japanese soldiers). However, when the Neocons employed it under the Bush administration, OLC memos argued waterboarding was not torture if “properly limited.” These were withdrawn in 2009 and deemed “legally flawed” by the DOJ.
In Padilla v. Yoo (9th Cir. 2012), which was a case regarding legal immunity for John Yoo (author of OLC memos), the court avoided ruling on waterboarding’s legality. Still, it included a footnote (dicta) stating:
“We have no occasion here to decide whether waterboarding constitutes torture… even if it could be torture in some circumstances, it was not torture as applied to Padilla.”
When Judge Lawrence M. McKenna attempted to protect me, the DOJ then went to the Chief Judge to have my case taken away from him, as he had refused to recuse himself at the government’s request. The court sealed the docket, and they refused to explain how they could remove a judge in violation of Due Process of Law, with no information revealed as to how. I believe it is sealed because this was all about national security. Under US law, this is supposed to be illegal. They do not care about the rule of law when the government wants something. They could not deny Free Speech, so they call on YouTube, Facebook, etc., and have people removed or have their accounts shut down by banks.
They then gave my case to Judge John F. Kennan, who then denied all discovery despite a court-appointed accountant stating the government refused to turn over evidence for 7 years. They were using my accounts for money laundering post trades that were not mine and then backing them out to different accounts the next day. Judge Kennan, along with Judge Peter Kevin Castel, ensured that I had no rights, not even human rights, let alone constitutional rights. The court-appointed lawyer, David Cooper, refused to file an appeal, I believe, to protect the government that had instructed him not to do so. Court-appointed lawyers lose 99% of the time because they should never be trusted – they are pawns in all cases. Even General Flynn discovered how a hired lawyer will not defend you, as shown in his documentary. Even Trump could not remove a judge. Absolutely nobody will dare investigate my case because they know what it would expose.
To make the movie “The Forecaster,” they must have insurance against slander and libel. They had to prove that the government was after the model, and they slipped up by putting it in writing. When they torture you, their way to survive is to take their power away. You must lose all fear of death. People think that imposing the death penalty for a crime is the worst punishment. They understand nothing. There are things far worse than death – being tortured for the rest of your life every day, but never enough to kill you or leave a mark on your body so they can pretend to be honorable and respect human rights.
I have seen the true colors of the real beast. I said before, I will die with the Schema Model. They will abuse it and use it to achieve regime change, which I was in the middle of as they tried to take control of Russia in 2000. That is why Hillary created the RussiaGate Affair, and I question if Attorney General Pam Bondi or anyone in the Trump Administration would dare to investigate my case, for it would expose the Neocons and that they were trying to seize control of Russia, installing their puppet Boris Berezovsky, whose own bodyguard said he never committed suicide – he was killed by MI6. I believe the truth has its limits.
BTW, the company they wanted me to invest $10 billion for this regime change was Hermitage Capital Management owned by Edmond Safra, who I believe the CIA killed in Monaco, and Bill Browder who just so happened to have been the right-hand man of RobertMaxwell (1923-1991) – the father of GhislaineMaxwell the girlfriend of Jeffrey Epstein who ran the biggest blackmail operation perhaps in history for who? People think it is a list of pedophiles. RIGHT!. It is a list of victims, and the real question is what they did on the orders of Epstein and for whom?
Robert Maxwell was linked to Mossad, and his death in 1991 also coincided with the fall of the USSR. I believe he was part of the manipulation club and lost a few hundred million pounds trading with the pension funds of the employees. He magically fell off his yacht before having to testify. Robert Maxwell died under mysterious circumstances just before he was due to testify about missing funds from his companies’ pension schemes. On November 5, 1991, his body was found floating in the Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands, where his luxury yacht, the Lady Ghislaine, had been anchored. He was reportedly facing serious legal consequences, including possible fraud charges, and was due to testify before UK regulators. Whenever I was asked to join the “club,” I said, “I do know how to swim.”
Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell reportedly met in early 1991 in New York before her father died. There is so much more to the Epstein affair, but they keep everyone focused on pedophiles rather than on the blackmail and real motives and who was truly pulling the strings.
Jeffrey Epstein attended Robert Maxwell’s funeral in 1991. Epstein had financial and social ties to Maxwell and his family. Epstein’s presence at the funeral is documented, and it underscores his early connections to powerful figures. Robert Maxwell died under mysterious circumstances after falling from his yacht, Lady Ghislaine (named after his daughter). Robert Maxwell had long been the subject of speculation regarding possible connections to intelligence agencies, including Israel’s Mossad. While no definitive proof has been made public, several credible reports and investigations suggest that Maxwell had significant ties to Israeli intelligence. I covered my investigation of this in the Plot to Seize Russia.
Posted originally on CTH on July 22, 2025 | Sundance
I’ll repeat it as much as needed, until it sinks in.
The U.S-Canada trade deal status is simply a no-brainer. President Trump will answer questions about Canada and tariffs, he’ll put people into seats to discuss trade with the Canadian delegation, and he’ll give every outward appearance of being favorable to Prime Minister Mark Carney…. BUT…
In the background, Trump is simply waiting for the USMCA timeline to trigger a renegotiation. President Donald Trump is ambivalent to the trade partnership with Canada. This moot-status reality is why there’s no substantive engagement.
‘No deal’ -until USMCA redo- is a win for President Trump.
For some bizarre reason that I simply cannot fathom, almost every Canadian politician seems entirely oblivious to this reality. Instead, Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Mark Carney’s chief-of-staff, Marc-André Blanchard are once again coming to DC to ride their bicycles in slow circles at the bottom of the White House driveway while staring in the windows.
An article in Politico notes the Canadian premiers are now accepting the August 1st deadline will pass without any agreement, and the 35% reciprocal tariffs on non-USMCA products (meaning a lot of stuff) is going to trigger.
Literally, everything from Canada that has a non-USMCA component is going to be tariffed. Think about all the stuff from China, Asia (writ large) and Europe that Canada assembles for finished goods. All of that stuff will be subject to the tariffs.
That said, there’s good news coming from the recent meeting between Prime Minister Carney and the Premiers. Within their statement they use the term “developing large infrastructure projects.” That’s Canadian political codespeak for them realizing they are going to have to get back to regular energy development, raw material use/refinement and ACTUAL MANUFACTURING.
Canada is going to have to bring back their ‘dirty’ industrial jobs.
For our Treehouse friends in Canada, this is very good news. The Canadian assembly economic model has to change in order to get compliant with U.S. trade rules. THAT’S TRUMP’S ENTIRE POINT!
The environmentalists within Canada will not like this, but economically they will have no choice; it’s the only way to avoid a complete economic depression.
HUNTSVILLE, Ontario — Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canada’s premiers are tempering expectations that they’ll strike a new economic and security deal with Donald Trump by the end of the month.
“We would like to have the ideal deal, as fast as possible. But what can we get?” Quebec Premier François Legault said Tuesday. “You almost need to ask Donald Trump, and I’m not even sure he knows himself what he wants.”
It’s a shift in tone from the premiers and Carney, who ran for election on his economic record, arguing he’d be the best person to negotiate with the president. But Canada is finding it harder than it looks.
Carney met the premiers in Muskoka, cottage country north of Toronto, to update them on Canada-U.S. negotiations.
As the leaders emerged from a three-hour meeting, they downplayed hopes of an Aug. 1 deal, arguing that achieving a “good deal” is more important than hitting a deadline.
[…] As the negotiations continue, the premiers spent Tuesday carving out a strategy to offset the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs on the aluminum, steel, auto and lumber sector. They spoke about developing large infrastructure projects, breaking down trade barriers between provinces and encouraging a “buy Canadian” approach. (READ MORE)
Canada is going to go into a deep economic recession; there’s no way to avoid it. However, if they restart their industrial base, drop the ridiculous ‘green’ energy stuff, start exploiting their own natural resources and train an apprentice generation -just like we are trying to do- then Canada can bounce back stronger than ever.
We know there are Canadian wolverines who understand this concept; we saw thousands of them in the Truckers’ vaccine strike. Make Canada Great Again, by Making Dirty Jobs Great Again, eh?
Posted originally on CTH on July 21, 2025 | Sundance
In 2018, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau relied heavily on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for assistance when the U.S. and Mexico constructed the majority of the USMCA trade pact. Today, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney takes the same approach.
PRESS RELEASE – “Today, the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, met with a bipartisan delegation of United States senators in Ottawa. The Senator for Oregon, Ron Wyden, the Senator for Alaska, Lisa Murkowski, the Senator for New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan, and the Senator for Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto, were present.” (more)
The 35% tariffs against Canada are scheduled to go into effect on August 1st.
As noted by President Trump in his remarks during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to the White House, Trump plans to renegotiate the USMCA and end the trilateral agreement in favor of two bilateral trade deals.
During the Oval Office meeting President Trump said, “As you know [USMCA] terminates fairly shortly. It gets renegotiated fairly shortly.” Then the biggest statement, “This was a transitional deal, and we’ll see what happens, we’re going to start renegotiating that”… “I don’t know if it serves a purpose anymore.” …. “And the biggest purpose it served was, we got rid of NAFTA.”
President Trump is going to exit the trilateral USMCA in favor of two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements between the U.S and Mexico, and the U.S and Canada. The only consideration now is the timing. President Trump is 100% focused on the BIG ECONOMIC PICTURE; it’s not about the politics, it’s all about the economics.
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