Tag Archives: Hunt for Taxes

Oct 2 2018

Why Capital Flows Are the Only Real Guide to Market Trends


Armstrong Economics Blog/Capital Flow

RE-Posted Oct 2, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Martin

I wish all the best for you. The work you make every day to rise up our understanding about the world is amazing and make me feel a huge respect. it is very inspiring. I’m a small customer of your private blog. I don’t know if you answer that kind of request.

I want and I need to understand WHY the dxy was in bull market between march 2000 and feb 2002, from 102 to 113.

you are unbelievable when times come to understand economic history. I can’t find any explanation about this period
M2 supply decreased softly the twin deficit stood around 2% with no hope of getting better and it reversed after 2002 to 8% !!!

Interest rates were declining stock indexes were very bear from the tech turnmoil

Gold was bottoming from 420 to 380 with a reverse pattern during summer 2001. the dxy rise more than 3% after the bottom of gold in 1 year !
how could this DXY get up 10% higher in 2 years ??? what is the secret of history I miss ???? I believe there is something to learn with that period !
kind regards

CD

ANSWER: While the Euro began really in 1999, the physical notes did not come into circulation until 2000. The euro hit its all-time high shortly after its launch at the start of 1999 at that point in history which marked the euphoria of the talking heads on TV and how the Euro would crush the dollar. As always, they talked everyone into buying the high. As we say, buy the rumor and sell the news. That is an INCREDIBLY good market rule.

But The Euro began to slide thereafter, falling to a record low of 82.3 US cents in October 2000. However, both the euro and sterling then recovered at the lows when rumors began that an intervention by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan was imminent. In late afternoon trading that day, one euro bought 82.74 and one pound was worth $1.4329. They also spread rumors that Iraq would soon start to price its oil exports in euro and abandon the dollar.

The entire rally has absolutely NOTHING to do with the economic numbers in the United States. The capital inflows to the USA began over FEARS of the Euro. One major central bank was leaking inside info to us to get it out because we were NOT mainstream press and the info was going DIRECTLY to the real institutional money. They were deeply against the Euro because of the faulty design. It was a political creation that nobody in their right mind would have created such a currency under this structure. So the capital fled Europe and this was one of the reasons why the DOT.COM bubble was so big. It was aided by foreign capital fleeing Europe, to begin with.

The economic numbers are nice. But they are NEVER the entire story. Capital can flee one region because of events there and they may be going to a place that is not up to par, but still, it is the best alternative. Capital Flow Analysis which we developed is by far the only way to grasp the full extent of the economy.

Oct 1 2018

AfD is now in Second Place in German Polls


Amrstrong Economics Blog/Germany

Re-Posted Oct 1, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Many people have initially said that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party would never rise. The AFD has now has risen to the second highest party in Germany. It is truly astonishing that people just never look at history. I have received many emails from Germany asking how could I have forecast that they would rise to such heights 2 years ago when nobody else did? Besides the fact that the computer made that projection, it was still something I could have forecast just glancing at the data. Why? Because history repeats.

I have stated many times, Angela Merkel created this entire mess simply to reverse her polls when they were turning against her because of her hard line against Greece who had forgiven Germany’s debt at the end of the war. You simply DO NOT open the doors to refugees that were dominated by just men who were economic migrants mixed with potential terrorists. She has created this entire refugee mess and the rise of the AfD is the reaction.

The AfD is now listed as the country’s second most popular party in a recent poll, with 18% support, reducing the mainstream Social Democratic Party (SDP) which has historically been Marxist and came to power with the Weimar Republic against which Adolf Hitler rebelled. The AfD is no Adolf Hitler. The mere fact they are against the refugees renders then far-right. They are a nationalist party – plain and simple, which is rising up throughout Europe at this time. Even Trump is in the category of a nationalist. The SDP is now in third place

Oct 1 2018

Solar Minimum – Biggest Decline Maybe Ever


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture

Re-Posted Oct 1, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The sun is entering perhaps one of the deepest Solar Minima in thousands of years. Sunspots have been absent for most of 2018. This is really alarming. Since the start of 2018, there have been totally spotless days for weeks. The sun’s ultraviolet output has sharply declined and this is not going to end well.

We can see that this decline in Solar Cycle #24 has been a rapid decline that is twice as fast than any previously. Already the the upper atmosphere is losing heat energy. NASA has conceded that if the current trend continues, this could become a dramatic cold period far worse than many people suspect. The Global Warming crowd is leading the world down a dangerous path because they have been paid $1 billion to create fake research in order to raise taxes as they have been doing in Europe and Canada. Our computer us projecting a very serious decline in sunspot activity. This will be the backdrop to the rise in agricultural prices we see between 2020 and 2024. Of course, thanks to the Global Warming people, it will be too late to prepare

Sep 30 2018

Silver v Gold Standard


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold

Re-Posted Sep 30, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You do not give much credence to the world returning to a gold standard. Didn’t the entire world use the gold standard before?

Thank you for your input

JK

 

ANSWER: The entire world has NEVER been on the gold standard simultaneously. Asia was on a silver standard while the West was on a gold standard. Above is the first coin struck in Hong Kong in 1866 which was the Hong Kong Dollar. The West struck Trade Dollars during the 19th century to pay for goods from Asia and they were silver – never gold. Here is an example of both the British and American trade dollars used in payments particularly with China.

 

It is just not practical that we have a monetary system that is based upon a commodity. The true value of money is the productive-capability of its people. China, Germany, Japan, all rose from economic depression WITHOUT gold. They did it with the productive capacity of the people. The produce whatever and sell it to someone else and then get gold or whatever in return. This theory that you have nothing without gold is just stupid. It would mean that no nation could ever rise no matter how good their people are because they lack a natural source of gold.

The collapse of the Turkish lira is a reflection of the collapse in confidence in the government. The same has taken place in Venezuela. China and Japan rose from the ashes, not because of their possession of commodities, but because they could bring their people to bear and produce various items efficiently and cost-effective. It was the people first that produced the economic recovery and then they bought even gold.

HYPERINFLATION has nothing to do with the quantity of money – that unfolds when the CONFIDENCE in the government collapses. You cross that line from normal inflation all nations experience into the realm of a collapse in the faith and trust of government. This is HOW revolutions even unfold. They have nothing to do with the quantity of money.

Sep 30 2018

President Trump MAGA Rally in Wheeling, West Virginia – 7pm ET Livestream…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on September 29, 2018 by

President Trump heads to Wheeling, West Virginia for a MAGA campaign rally ahead of the 2018 mid-term election.  The venue is the Wesbanco Arena, in Wheeling.

A recent poll of West Virginia voters shows 58 percent think Brett Kavanaugh should be confirmed to the Supreme Court following his testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee last Thursday.  This puts massive pressure on Democrat Senator Joe Manchin.  The same poll shows that 33 percent of Virginia voters are looking at Manchin’s vote on Kavanaugh as a key factor on whether or not they would re-elect him. Manchin is currently in a competitive race against Republican candidate Patrick Morrisey,

Anticipated start time for President Trump is 7:00pm Eastern.

RSBN Livestream Link – Fox News Livestream Link – Alternate Livestream Link

(Poll Link)

Sep 30 2018

Justin From Canada Calls Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador For Help With Trump on NAFTA…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on September 29, 2018 by

Someone tipped-off Trudeau.  An emergency series of last-minute phone calls surrounding the U.S-Mexico trade agreement has temporarily postponed releasing key details of the Mexico-U.S. trade agreement.  Within the granules of this most important economic negotiation, we’ll likely find out exactly why POTUS was highly preoccupied Friday.

According to Reuters reporting Justin from Canada called Mexico’s President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador Thursday and asked him to use his influence to call the U.S. government requesting a delay so the Canadians could put a last-minute proposal into the mix.

Apparently someone finally informed Justin from Canada a bilateral trade strategy was hours away from being deployed.  Important Note: Justin did not call current Mexican President Peña Niéto, the call was made to President-Elect Lopez Obrador.

(Via Reuters) […] Lopez Obrador told reporters in Mexico City that Trudeau asked him during a Thursday phone call “to intervene and call on the U.S. government to reach an agreement” with Canada. “We agreed to that.”

He said that regardless of the outcome with Canada the language of the agreement between Washington and Mexico City was now final. “We are not going to re-open the negotiation. That you can be sure of,” Lopez Obrador said. (read more)

As with all financial media reporting on trade you have to read “through” the pro-globalist, pro-Wall Street, spin to see the more important background picture.  Wall Street, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the multinationals -together with Justin- are going bananas trying to retain maximum pressure against the White House in this U.S-Mexico deal.

It is almost guaranteed that someone in Canada realized a Mexican NAFTA withdrawal was only hours away.

The Mexico-first approach crushes the political strategy of Justin and Chrystia Freeland to blame President Trump for the trade collapse. Hence, the desperate call to AMLO to gauge strategic risk, and request time for Justin to reformulate plans.

The resulting postponement, a similar strategic approach evident within the Kavanaugh delay, gives the progressive Canadians 48 hours to formulate a counter-attack.

Stay tuned…

[…]  Canada’s Liberal government says it does not feel bound by the latest NAFTA deadline, and it repeated on Friday that it would not bow to U.S. pressure to sign a quick deal.

“We are in a very tough negotiation with the United States over NAFTA … there is no deadline on this. As far as we are concerned we want a deal that is good for Canadians and that’s the bottom line,” Transport Minister Marc Garneau told reporters in Ottawa.  (read full article)

The New York Times has a similar ‘resistance’ spin on the events as presented; with their customary opposition to horrible President Trump, and a disingenuous value afforded toward U.S. CoC President Tom Donohue and the Wall Street position.

(Via New York Times) […] Mexico’s economy minister, Ildefonso Guajardo, said late Friday that Canada and the United States would be involved in an intense effort over the weekend to reach an agreement over the remaining issues dividing them.

“For the first time there is real effort” on both sides, he said. “In the next 48 hours, we will know whether we will have a trilateral text or whether we will have to release the text of a bilateral understanding” which could then be adapted to incorporate Canada.

It is unclear whether the United States and Canada can bridge the differences that have so far stymied an agreement. And Mr. López Obrador said he had no plans to reopen the trade pact that Mexico, under the leadership of Enrique Peña Nieto, had reached last month.  (read NYT full article)

 

Sep 29 2018

President Trump Meets With President Piera of Chile…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on September 28, 2018 by

President Donald Trump meets with Chilean President Piera in the oval office. In addition to bilateral questions, President Trump gave some remarks about supreme court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

.

[Transcript] – 2:00 P.M. EDT – PRESIDENT PIERA: How many times this house has been burned?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: One time.

PRESIDENT PIERA: Only one?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: A long time ago. A long, long time ago.

Well, thank you very much. We are with the very distinguished President of Chile. And he and I are going to be discussing a lot of things, including trade, and military, and military protection, and purchases. We’re — we have a lot of things on our plate.

It’s one of the most beautiful countries in the world. It’s also got one of the great coastlines in the world. No — there’s no lacking of coast. There’s no lacking of ocean.

So it’s an honor to be with the President, and thank you very much for being at the Oval Office with us.

PRESIDENT PIERA: Thank you, President Trump.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Thank you. Please.

PRESIDENT PIERA: Well, I’m very pleased to lead this great country with President Trump. There are so many issues that we have to discuss because Chile and the United States are likeminded countries. We share the most important things, which are values — democracy, human rights, freedom.

And, for me, it’s a great opportunity to talk to President Trump about important issues for the world, for the U.S., and for Chile.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Show them your flag that you showed.

PRESIDENT PIERA: And, by the way, Chile is at the heart of the United States. (Laughter.) And the best proof of this: This is the American flag, and there is a Chilean flag right at the very heart of the U.S. flag. (Laughter.)

PRESIDENT TRUMP: That’s great.

Q Mr. President, any comment on the request for a delay from Senator Flake? He wants a one-week delay so the FBI can investigate further.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, I’m going to let the Senate handle that. They’ll make their decisions, and they’ve been doing a good job, and very professional.

I’m just hearing a little bit about it because I’ve been with the President of Chile, and we’re talking about some very important subjects. But I’m sure it will all be very good.

I guess the vote was a positive vote, but there seems to be a delay. I’ll learn more about it as the day goes on. And I just heard about it, because we were together.

Q And what did you think of Dr. Ford’s testimony when you heard that?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: I thought her testimony was very compelling, and she looks like a very fine woman to me. A very fine woman.

And I thought that Brett’s testimony, likewise, was really something that I haven’t seen before. It was incredible. It was an incredible moment, I think, in the history of our country.

But certainly she was a very credible witness. She was very good in many respects.

And I think that — I don’t know if this is going to continue onward or are we going to get a vote. But again, I’m here, so I’m not out there watching because I can’t be, out of great respect — although maybe we’ll go watch together. Okay? We’ll watch together.

But I think it will work out very well for the country. I just want it to work out well for the country. If that happens, I’m happy.

Q Have you thought at all about a replacement for Judge Kavanaugh?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Not even a little bit. Not even a little bit.

Q What your message to Murkowski and Collins — the holdouts right now?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: I have no message. I mean, they have to do what they think is right. There’s no message whatsoever. They have to do what they think is right. They have to be comfortable with themselves, and I’m sure that’s what they are.

Q Would you be willing to reopen the background investigation into Kavanaugh?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: I’m going to rely on all of the people, including Senator Grassley, who is doing a very good job. And that’ll be a decision that they’re going to make. And I suspect they’ll be making some decision soon, whether to take a vote or to do whatever else they want to do.

I will be totally reliant on what Senator Grassley and the group decides to do. Okay?

Q Are you going to talk about Venezuela today?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: We’re going to talk about Venezuela, absolutely. I was waiting for that question. (Laughter.) We will be discussing Venezuela, among many other things. A lot of interesting things going on in that part of the world.

But Chile is really something special. If you look at what they’ve done, how far they’ve come. You look at how well run the country is. So I just want to say it’s an honor to be with you. A great honor. Thank you very much.

Thank you very much everybody. Thank you. Thank you.

Q If they delay, will — a delay is okay?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Whatever they think is necessary is okay. Yeah.

Q Are you still willing to meet with President Maduro? Still willing to meet with President Maduro?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: We’ll see what happens. I know he wants to meet with us. We’ll see what happens. Venezuela is a mess, and it’s got to be cleaned up. And people have to be taken care of.

Thank you very much.

Q Anything on Rosenstein, sir?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: No. No.

END 2:05 P.M. EDT

Sep 29 2018

Nigel Farage on the Lack of Democracy in Europe


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Sep 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

Sep 28 2018

Is Nature Preparing for a New Ice Age or a Pole Shift?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Sep 28, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

There is a very curious connection between lakes and volcanos in the Arctic. I just posted how there are kilotons of CO2 coming out of volcanos. There is a similar thing now showing up in lakes in the Arctic as well. There are about 300 lakes across the tundras of the Arctic. However, a scientist reports that she has never before never seen a lake like this one. The lake looks like it is boiling. It is making a hissing sound and bubbles are rising to the surface like a pot of water which is on the stove. It is actually producing powerful greenhouse gas called methane that Europe is taxing farmers for because their cows produce it. Who should we tax for this one? Methane gas has escaped from the lake bed and the bubbles are as big as a grapefruit.

There has been a rise in volcanic activity under the ice at both the North and South Poles. Nobody knows if this is a prelude to a pole shift or is this simply a foreshadow of climate change and entering into a new ice age. What we do know is that melting ice does not result in rising sea levels, it results in the water evaporates and it comes back as snow which then increases the glaciers once again. The danger is that this entire Global Warming nonsense is ignoring how ice ages are even created!

In fact, The British Daily Mail is reporting that not only was this forecast of Al Gore dead WRONG, the ice cap has actually expanded for the second year in a row covering 1.7million square kilometers MORE than 2 years ago and it is also thicker! In fact, the ice has melted in some areas and is building up in others as if they are gradually starting to move