S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Marks New High


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Apr 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Home prices were up 19.2% in January according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. It is extremely difficult for Millennials and Gen Z to enter the housing market, as homes today cost 75% more than they did in 1987 – and that’s just when the index first began tracking prices. The agency addressed the problem the youth are facing:

“While the re-acceleration of home price gains may be concerning and likely discouraging for first-time and younger buyers, it is nevertheless unsurprising considering the dire inventory of for-sale homes, which continues to decline and continually record new lows. Additionally, with mortgage rates jumping to three-year highs, existing homeowners now have little incentive to sell and buy a new, more expensive home with a higher mortgage rate. As a result, homebuyers that remain in the market are once again faced with a very competitive buying environment.”

The pandemic, coupled with extremely low rates, spurred this buying frenzy. Cumulatively, home prices across the US rocketed 31% since March 2020. Although rates are rising and mortgages hit nearly 5% last week, there is no indication of demand declining significantly. The age of remote work has allowed people earning New York-level salaries to relocate to areas with lower tax rates and less crime. It has become a new form of gentrification in the age of corona.

Home prices are soaring everywhere as the supply cannot meet the demand. Some areas have far surpassed 19.2% increases. The 10-city composite is 33% higher than during the peak in 2006, and the 20-city composite rose an astounding 40%. America is looking at a housing crisis if inflation does not wane and risks a generation becoming reliant on rentals and more likely to delay having families.

Environmental Terrorism


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Apr 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Woke domestic terrorist groups are permitted to freely operate on Twitter and other social media platforms, even when they call for violence. Adbusters, a self-proclaimed “global network of activists writers artists designers hackers tricksters poets philosophers and punks,” has requested that “activists” begin targeting SUV owners under the Tyre Extinguishers “movement.” These idiots are calling it a “deflating movement” and have justified their actions by saying they are “defending ourselves against climate change, air pollution and unsafe drivers.”

Luckily the group is planning on leaving clear evidence of their crimes at the scene. These terrorists are urging people to begin by targeting wealthy neighborhoods first before disrupting the working class. Their website suggests not targeting vehicles with disabled handicapped stickers.

FOX Business reached out to Twitter to ask why these blatant calls for vandalism and crime are permitted. At the time of this writing, the organization’s page is still online and it hosts over 65.1K followers. They have provided copies of their leaflet in various languages and are hoping this “deflating movement” takes off worldwide.

Their website provides a video on how to delate tires and operate effectively as criminals. They are requesting that people repeat the crime endlessly. Hybrid SUVs are “fair game” too. The majority of people I see driving SUVs have children. These domestic terrorists are going to end up killing innocent people because they’re scared of the big bad car. Law enforcement should begin cracking down on this pathetic movement immediately before we see a string of preventable crashes on the news. At this point, crime is permitted so long as it is within the realm of the leftist agenda

The Myth of Green Energy


Published originally on Rumple by Energycademy  on January 31, 2022

This video looks at the official definition of green energy and critically examines how well solar and wind energy, two of the most popular form of green energy, match the official definition.

#greenenergy #solarenergy #windenergy #cleanenergy

Report: Chicken, Pork and Beef Prices Likely to Skyrocket Due to Massive Increases in Feed Costs


Posted originally on the conservative three house on April 1, 2022

Hopefully this does not come as a surprise to readers here; however, according to analysis by industry insiders, Chicken prices are likely to increase by 70% this year once the full price increases in grain, used as feed, start to take hold.  Overall, we will likely see a leveling off in beef prices, but pork (due to soybeans) and chicken (due to grain) will increase significantly.

The issue is one we noted in December of last year when identifying the downstream consequences of fertilizer and component products used for the production of corn, wheat and soybeans crops. “You might say those crops do not seem like they are that important.  However, keep in mind that Corn, Wheat and Soybeans represent the baseline for not only grain production in the U.S, but they are also the primary feed products for proteins: chicken, pork and beef.” {Go Deep}

(Fox Business) – Evercore ISI issued a protein inflation note this week projecting that most protein prices are forecasted to increase “substantially” due to the higher feed costs, with chicken breast reaching as high as 70% year-over-year in the first half of 2022.  The analysis said pork and ground beef could climb as high as 20% year-over-year during the same period. (more)

That was last year. Those prices have doubled since then. GO DEEP

These anticipated price increases now being projected are what CTH refers to as the tail end of the second inflation wave.  We entered the second wave last month driven by massive fuel and gasoline increases.  Those costs will join with the fertilizer costs and create a snowball effect in the food sector.

Statistically the 2022 inflationary measure will look lower, because when the biggest part of the second wave hits, it will be cycling around in comparison time to the beginning of the first wave in 2021.  The percentage of change will be lower; however, the actual dollar increase in this second wave on food products will be higher than the first.

Biden Announces Plan to Lower Gasoline Cost, Release 1 Million Barrels of Oil Per Day for Next Six Months From Strategic Petroleum Reserve


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 31, 2022 

The White House occupant took to the literal stage today to gaslight the American people and state it is not his energy policy that has created massive increases in gas prices.  Instead, chief of staff Ron Klain has convinced the puppet to claim Vladimir Putin is to blame for the increase in oil costs.

The manipulative effort to distract the nation from his energy and economic policy outcomes is brazen. However, like most things recently, the blame-casting is likely to be believed by approximately 25% of Americans.

In an attempt to slow down the rising price of gasoline, the puppet on the stage-set near the white house, announced a plan to release 1 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve every day for the next six months. {Details}

As admitted, the goal is to “bridge the gap.” Unfortunately, most will not recognize exactly what the destination is on the other side of the bridge.

Inflation is a measure of price at a moment in time relative to the same time one year ago.  Ron Klain is trying to keep the tar and feathers away until the White House policy team can cycle through the inflation comparison to the fall of 2022. That’s when the comparison flips to comparing prices to the fall of 2021.

Prices skyrocketed in the last half of 2021. If Ron Klain can keep the electoral torches from reaching the White House until the fall of 2022, the rate of inflation will look better because they will be comparing this year’s high prices to last year’s high prices. The rate of change will lessen; the rate of inflation will look better.  Unfortunately, the high prices will remain – forever.

WATCH (prompted):

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Biden on stage.  Once you see the strings on the marionettes, you can never return to that moment in the performance when you did not see them.

Ukraine & Russia Peace Talks – Will Sanctions Be Lifted?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Turkey Posted Mar 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

While the news is spinning this as Russia is losing for they are now negotiating, there is a lot more going on behind the curtain than people suspect – this will be a true TEST of international law. Indeed, Russia has promised to drastically scale down its military operations around Kyiv and the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv given Ukraine’s proposed neutral status with international guarantees. This will turn on the guarantee that Ukraine will not only remain out of NATO but will also no longer host bases of foreign troops. This will be under the original security guarantee in terms similar to “Article 5”, the collective defense clause of NATO. The proposal will be that this guarantee will be secured by NATO members Canada, Poland, and Turkey.

In addition, Ukraine will agree to a 15-year consultation period on the status of Russian-annexed Crimea upon a complete ceasefire. These proposals are being submitted to President Vladimir Putin. The Donbas is on the table for that must be settled to end the civil war which the US has been covertly funding against Russia thanks to the US Neocons.

While it appears based on our computer that some decision will come perhaps the week of April 18th, the real test will be something even far more important. Can the powers that be get our insane leader of the Free World, Joe Biden, to terminate all sanctions against Russians? If there is a peace settlement, then the White House should rescind all sanctions. That should include those put on by Obama back in 2014 because of Crimea. If that is NOT done, then there is no way to restore the world economy nor to aid the reduction of inflation. As long as sanctions remain in place, peace or no peace in Ukraine will mean nothing going forward.

Russia Indicates Withdrawal in Position From Ukraine Capital, Kyiv


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 29, 2022 

While the western propaganda about the Russian objective in Ukraine remains at a fever pitch, most intellectually honest observers have always held that liberation of eastern Ukraine was the goal of Russia and western Ukraine was never part of the objective.

With a decade-long civil war in eastern Ukraine preceding the current Russian operations, and with western forces supporting one side while Russia supported the other, it was always presumed -prior to the Russian military operations- that Vladimir Putin’s central goal was removing the NATO influence from eastern Ukraine.

That objective has seemingly remained visible throughout the conflict with Russian activity in western Ukraine limited in scope to targeting inbound NATO weapons and material support.

We might remember the 20-mile-long armored convoy that sat in place for weeks north of Kyiv while the media narrative was ‘any day now’. Those troops never moved on Kyiv, and in hindsight looked more like a strategic positioning of resources to keep western Ukraine in check while the more important goal of clearing eastern Ukraine was the ongoing operation.

It seems a little silly to point out the obvious, but everything Putin said about what he was doing in Ukraine is factually what has taken place. The western media narrative spinning his ‘true intents’ to be much more significant than his open statements, has never played out when reviewing the actual military operations. In short, Putin was then (as he said), and continues now, to be carving out eastern Ukraine and the Donbas region.

As the Russian operations in eastern Ukraine enter the clean-up and finalization stage, this report about the shift in Russian operations near Kyiv and western Ukraine makes a great deal of sense.  The Reuters spin is that Putin was losing western Ukraine, ergo he is reducing activity.  However, it never appeared that western Ukraine was part of the objective.

ISTANBUL/KYIV OUTSKIRTS/MARIUPOL, Ukraine, March 29 (Reuters) – Russia promised on Tuesday to scale down military operations around Ukraine’s capital and north, while Kyiv proposed adopting neutral status, in confidence-building steps that were the first signs of progress towards negotiating peace.

Their talks took place in an Istanbul palace more than a month into the largest attack on a European nation since World War Two. Russia’s invasion has been halted on most fronts by stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces who have recaptured territory even as civilians are trapped in besieged cities.

He made no mention of other areas that have seen heavy fighting, including around Mariupol in the southeast, Sumy and Kharkiv in the east and Kherson and Mykolaiv in the south.

Some analysts noted that Russia’s promise to reduce fighting mostly covered areas where it has been losing ground.

[…] Ukrainian negotiators said that under their proposals, Kyiv would agree not to join alliances or host bases of foreign troops, but would have security guaranteed in terms similar to “Article 5”, the collective defence clause of the transatlantic NATO military alliance.

They named Israel and NATO members Canada, Poland and Turkey as countries that may give such guarantees. Russia, the United States, Britain, Germany and Italy could also be involved.

The proposals, which would require a referendum in Ukraine, mentioned a 15-year consultation period on the status of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. The fate of the southeastern Donbas region, which Russia demands Ukraine cede to separatists, would be discussed by the Ukrainian and Russian leaders.

Kyiv’s proposals also included one that Moscow would not oppose Ukraine joining the European Union, Russia’s lead negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said. Russia has previously opposed Ukrainian membership of the EU and especially of NATO. (read more)

Biden Cheat Sheet Shows How Team Behind White House Intended to Control His Cleanup


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 28, 2022

When Joe Biden appeared before the press corps today, the intent was to clean up the mess he created in his trip to NATO this past weekend.

When Biden makes policy statements and reads from the teleprompter, Joe Biden usually doesn’t answer questions.  Today was different.  Today, it was obvious the White House communication team needed Biden to clean up his NATO statements.

The evidence for that is very clear, as someone was able to capture a picture of the talking points that were prepared for him to read.  One pre-printed response even reads, “I was not articulating a change in policy.”

(New York Post) –  President Joe Biden once again referred to a printed cheat sheet as he doubled down on his unscripted weekend claim that Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power.”

On Monday Biden, 79, told reporters he made “no apologies” for his remarks — made off the cuff and not part of his prepared speech in a nationally televised address from Poland Saturday — and did not view it as a provocation to Russia.

“It’s more an aspiration than anything. He shouldn’t be in power. There’s no  — I mean, people like this shouldn’t be ruling countries, but they do. The fact is they do, but it doesn’t mean I can’t express my outrage about it.”

His comments closely aligned with notes printed on a small piece of paper that he was photographed holding in his left hand as he spoke that began as follows (read more):

No one has yet provided a good explanation as to why the Biden administration has a stage set of the White House in a studio across the street from the real White House.

The specifics of this Potemkin administrations are opaque, but everyone knows that it’s not Joe Biden making policy or executing these communication points. Biden is a puppet, that is not in question. The majority of his administration staff are from the Obama terms in office; that too is not in question.

The people who were behind Obama appear to be the same people pushing this Biden agenda.

Chairman Xi Just Made a Big Move, China Announces They Will Keep Purchasing Crude Oil and Gas From Russia


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 28, 2022 

Joe Biden said the western alliance would target any country that violated the sanctions against Russia.  Specifically, after a lengthy telephone call with Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping on March 18th: “President Biden made clear the implication and consequences of China providing material support, if China were to provide material support to Russia, as it prosecutes brutal war in Ukraine,” the senior administration official said, “not just for China’s relationship with the United States, but for the wider world.” (link)

Today, ten days later, China just called Joe Biden’s bluff.

China announces they will violate the western sanctions and continue to purchase crude oil and gas from Russia.

HONG KONG — Chinese state energy company Sinopec will continue to buy crude oil and gas from Russia, a top executive said on Monday, even as Western democracies step up sanctions in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

The company, known formally as China Petroleum and Chemical, is involved in two major projects in Russia: an oil and gas production joint venture called Taihu in the Volga-Ural petroleum basin in western Russia with state-owned peer Rosneft, and the development of the Amur gas chemical complex and processing plant with Sibur in the Russian Far East, adjoining China.

Sinopec holds a 10% stake in privately owned Sibur.

During his company’s annual results call on Monday, Sinopec President Yu Baocai noted that it bought both crude and gas from Russia last year.

“We will also continue to do so in accordance to commercial principles and international trade regulations in the future with all trading partners in order to develop normal oil and gas trading cooperation,” he said.

Yu provided no figures, but said the buying is in line with the company’s strategy of “diversifying import sources.” Key considerations, he said, include supply types, price, transport costs, tariffs and supply stability.

Referring to Sinopec’s projects in Russia, Yu said that both are “operating stably in general for the time being, and there are no indications of impairment.” (read more)

As far as geopolitical chess is concerned, Chairman Xi just put Joe Biden in ‘check.’

There is no way Joe Biden is going to challenge or confront Xi Jinping directly.  However, the intent of the western alliance to change the landscape of economics, trade and finance for the rest of the world is now directly being tested.   We can also look at this like China testing NATO.

Your move Joe….

An Interview with Martin Armstrong


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Forecaster Re-Posted Mar 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong