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Tag Archives: centinel2012
Climate Change & the Dollar
Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $ Re-Posted Mar 1, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty, at first I was not sure why you were focusing on the climate change issue. I now understand that climate is the main driving force behind this Great Reset which is out to undermine capitalism. Looking at the dollar through a global view I can see that cash is not trash.
Thank you for broadening my perspective.
HJ
ANSWER: Yes, perhaps my biggest mistake is I see things globally but do not always fully express them in a simple manner. Despite the increase in the money supply, the demand for dollars is escalating dramatically around the world. The Fed has been increasing the paper money supply for the demand is rising exponentially. Of course, those who keep preaching the collapse of the dollar because of the increase in the money supply, fail to ever look beyond the shore of the United States. Even Canada has one of the highest debts among sovereign nations.
The problem is that other nations, including Canada, have the authority to simply cancel their currency. The US paper money is the only one still valid from 1861. Consequently, for hoarding purposes, the dollar is still the #1 choice for it is the safe place to keep the cash. Also, the USA is not part of the reporting practices. So foreigners can open accounts in the USA and they are not reported back to their own country. As a result, the demand for dollars is rising and it is simply the prettiest of the three ugly sisters as they say.
Ideas Repeat throughout History
Armstrong Economics Blog/History Re-Posted Mar 1, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Good morning,
I am glad to see that you publicly touched on the idea of expiring credits, that in fact are in play. It is an old idea that has been talked and written about by members of the Club in many of their Private think tanks and in books and other literature going back to the early 1900s, if not earlier. Being sold as a way to bring about inflation, has other benefits, such as control, which would fit nicely with the elimination of private property.
There is no doubt the Club is desirous of this idea and is looking to bring this about soon. Of course, the people will have to use expiring credits, but not the elite. As it is still more of the same, expiring credits for thee, but not for me. The elite will continue to be allowed to have a way to accumulate and preserve wealth.
Now whether this idea will be brought out and be successful, is debatable. The main point is that it is in the works and not a benefit to most.
REPLY: I find it very interesting how history repeats yet these people think they have come up with an original idea. They NEVER do their research to see if it was ever used previously and how did it perform. Like the prostitute tokens of Rome trying to undermine the trade. Today, aside from trying to move to digital currency to terminate the underground economy, we still have politicians constantly trying to regulate vice one way or another without success. New York is legalizing prostitution so the girls do not go to jail but their patrons do. There were well-established houses of prostitution in Rome known as Lupanare. There too, we saw attitudes swing back and forth. The interesting aspect is that as Christianity became the state religion post 300AD, the prostitution moved to bath-houses.
So when Rome fell, so did bathing because to say you went to take a bath was one and the same to engage in prostitution. This gradually changed from prostitution to disease whereby engaging in bathing was seen as a questionable deed. A 16th-century book titled This is the Myrour or Glasse of Helth, advised: “Use not baths or stews, nor sweat too much, for all openeth the pores of a man’s body and maketh the venomous air to enter and for to infect the blood.”
It was actually Henry VIII’s marriage to Katherine of Aragon (1485-1536) that imported a cultural change. The sixteen-year-old Katherine was shocked when men would relieve their bladders in public places (Emerson 1996). The favorite spot for a urinal was the huge fireplaces of the times. This behavior she insisted had to end. In 1573, Thomas Tusser wrote in his ‘Five hundreth Goode Pointes of Husbandrie:
Some make the chimnie chamber pot to smell like Filthie stink,
Yet who so bold, so soone to say, fough, how These houses stink? (Hibbert 1987, p. 201).
Katherine of Aragon’s marriage turned the Tudor court upside down. The ‘pissing areas’ were phased out by constructing more garderobes in the chambers of the palaces. She insisted on a new stricter guideline for the behavior of those at court and moved the Tudors toward higher standards of cleanliness. Like her father, Elizabeth I (1533-1603) maintained high standards and was said to have been offended by smell and uncleanliness. She was known to have regular baths and she had a portable bath she would travel with. The prevailing attitude that full bathing was unhealthy and could lead to death, was a curious transition from the uncleanly prostitution that took place in Roman bathhouses. Elizabeth shocked everyone when she insisted on bathing during her life and death battle with smallpox in 1562. The doctors swore she would die.
So I find it interesting that ideas seem to simply repeat throughout history just as futures contracts began in Babylon or insurance reappeared in London by people meeting in a coffee house of Llyod’s – ie Starbucks. But the interesting connection between prostitution and bathing and how that migrated to being just unhealthy to take a bath shows how something begins based upon one idea, the tradition is maintained, but the idea to justifies it morphs over time.
Christmas is the same thing. December 25th was the feast of the sun god Sol. From the time of the Roman Emperor Elagabalus (218-222AD), there was a movement toward the sun god who was called Sol Invictus insofar as he rose every day and thus was invincible. It was sort of a movement toward this idea of a superior god.
Here is a gold medallion of Constantine (307-337AD) with Sol. Until the Council of Nicaea in 325AD, Christians were persecuted, churches set ablaze and their wealth confiscated. The persecution of Christians peaked under the rule of Emperor Diocletian (ca. 245 – 316) which was one Pi cycle 31.4 years from Elagabalus. Diocletian wanted to revive old pagan cults and make them into a kind of state religion. The decline was Rome was being blamed on the Christians for refusing to worship the Roman gods. But Diocletian’s anti-Christian policies failed and were revoked under ultimately his successor, Emperor Constantine I.
However, Christianity did not really become the religion of the entire Roman Empire until officially February 27, 380AD. The decree of the Eastern Roman Emperor Theodosius I (379-395AD) had far-reaching consequences. It bound the Judeo-Christian roots of the European continent to Greco-Roman culture. About 200AD, a Christian teacher Clement of Alexandria (c. 150 – c. 215AD) in Egypt made reference to the date Jesus was born. According to Clement, several different days had been proposed by various Christian groups. Nevertheless, Clement never mentioned December 25 at all.
Nobody knew the day Christ was born, so with most holidays, they rapidly lose their meaning. Christmas, being December 25, was transformed from the feast of sol to that of Jesus. In 274AD, the Roman emperor Aurelian (270-275AD) established a feast of the birth of Sol Invictus (the Unconquered Sun), on December 25. He was trying to reestablish the confidence in the Roman Empire after the currency collapsed following the capture of the Roman Emperor Valerian I (253-260AD) in 260AD by the Persians. Creating Sol Invictus as an official holiday was in part to reassure the people that Sol would protect the Romans.
It was not that if Christmas looked like a pagan holiday, more pagans would be open to both the holiday and the God whose birth it celebrated. That does not seem plausible. We have Veteran’s Day and Labor Day but they are just party days for most people. They lose their original meaning as time passes.
Clearly, there was great uncertainty, but also a considerable amount of interest, in dating Jesus’ birth in the late 2nd century. By the 4th century, however, we find references to January 6 in the East (especially in Egypt and Asia Minor). The modern Armenian church continues to celebrate Christmas on January 6th. For European Christians, however, December 25th seems to have emerged more as a transformation of Sol Invictus to Chistmas by the time of the rise of Christianity and Constantine I the Great. This appears to be once again one Pi cycle of 31.4 years from 274AD taking us to 305AD. By the time we have The Battle of the Milvian Bridge which took place between the Roman Emperors Constantine I and Maxentius on October 28th, 312AD the armies were predominantly Christain.
Therefore, the 12 days of Christmas were the difference between the West being December 25th and the East being January 6th. The earliest mention of December 25 as Jesus’ birthday comes from a mid-4th-century Roman almanac that lists the death dates of various Christian bishops and martyrs. The first date listed, December 25, is marked: natus Christus in Betleem Judeae: “Christ was born in Bethlehem of Judea.” Therefore, around 400AD Augustine of Hippo mentions a local dissident Christian group, the Donatists, who apparently kept Christmas festivals on December 25. That appears to simply be the date of Sol which was morphed into Christmas being that Sol Invictus was also seen as a supreme god.
As far as exchanging gifts or small figurines known as sigillaria, that took place on the Holiday of Saturnalia which was the feast of Saturn celebrated on December 17th. The two holidays became merged on December 25th with the commercial aspect of gift-giving. The image of Sol became the Statue of Liberty with the rays of sunlight emerging from his head.
The idea that money will simply expire is by no means nothing new. Even the interest-baring notes of the American Civil War had expirations.
Trudeau Moves to Install Guaranteed Basic Income in Canada
Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada Re-Posted Mar 1, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
It is very interesting how Trudeau has called anyone who uses the term “Great Reset” is a conspiracy theorist, and he intends to just focus on helping Canadians. Those who are engaged in this Great Reset know they have the media on their side to push this Agenda 2030 forward without anyone ever having the right to vote on changing the world economy.
Nobody ever asks how if a 16-year-old get to Canada to appear in elections in Alberta or meet with Trudeau. Who paid all the expenses? To get there, the fuel consumed created CO2, and we now have these world leaders desperately trying to shut down international travel, hospitality, and the freedom to move, assemble, and speak.
I find the misinformation is coming from mainstream media and those engaged in this Great Reset. Here is the Bill introduced last week in Canada to create Basic Income which is the way to replace pensions if the government decides to default on all its debt and to provide income to people it is deliberately trying to terminate their livelihood to save the environment.
Trudeau calls it a conspiracy theory to simply say what he is really up to. These people fail to understand that CO2 is not the cause of cycles in climate. They are hurling human society toward a mass extinction by denying the population heat and food production.
We are considered the stupid Great Unwashed and as such we have no right to vote on our own future. To these people, we are simply the worker ants in their farm incapable of understanding the greater good. We have been reduced to economic slaves and people like Trudeau will put this international agenda from the World Economic Forum, and we are to just obey – democracy no longer exists.
Czechoslovakia Returning to Communism?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Socialist Re-Posted Mar 1, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
From Monday almost 30,000 police and 5,000 soldiers will be policing Czech Republic “covid” lockdown which is total home imprisonment and respirator (N95 mask) mandates. Of course, there was the Velvet Revolution which took place Nov 17, 1989 – Dec 29, 1989 as communism collapsed. The Czechoslovak Socialist Republic was the name of Czechoslovakia from 1948 to April 23, 1990, when the country was under Communist rule. It was simply a satellite state of the Soviet Union. The Communists were the big winners in the 1946 elections, taking a total of 114 seats. Hence, with a strong Communist position, the Soviet Union did not have to install its own puppets.
The Prague Spring, as it is know, was a period of political liberalization in Czechoslovakia whereby it was recognized that the economy was stagnating under Communism. This liberalization began on January 5, 1968, when reformist Alexander Dubček was elected First Secretary of the Communist Party. The liberalization continued until the Soviet Union and other members of the Warsaw Pact invaded the country to halt the reforms on August 20-21 August.
The Prague Spring reforms included a grant of additional rights to the citizens in an attempt to decentralization of the economy and democratization. Dubček granted freedoms which loosened of restrictions on the media, speech and travel. There was even the discussion of dividing the country into a federation of three republics, Bohemia, Moravia–Silesia and Slovakia. Dubček wanted to split the country into the Czech Republic and Slovak Republic. The Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia was clearly an act of deperation to maintain Communism. The fear was that allowing this reform and its success would bring down the entire Soviet Union.
Therefore, the previous cucle had begun in mid 1916. This second wave which began in 1968, came to an end ironically precisely March 24th, 2020 one day after the COVID crasg low. Once more, we see the Czech government moving to restore effectively complete authoritarian rule under the pretense of this COVID virus. The next peak in the first 8.6 year wave will align with 2024. The following was reported by a reader living there.
This is to enforce the new total lockdown rules: no social contacts permitted with anyone who doesn’t live with you (not even with close family who don’t live in your household), no movement outside your district permitted (unless for essential work that must be documented), ban on leaving home between 21:00 and 05:00, all schools, kindegardens etc closed, all shops – except supermarkets and drugstores – and services closed (incl. car repair and home repair services), respirators mandatory everywhere at all time (but in open air where there is not a high concentration of people “only” surgical masks are mandatory).
And, everyone who was in any contact (even brief) with a positively tested person must quarantine for 14 to 21 days (21 days if they live with the “positive” person) AND get a mandatory test after this period (without a negative test they can’t leave quarantine ever).
And, same in Slovakia. Mandatory respirators/N95 everywhere, total ban on leaving home between 20:00 and 05:00, and the rest of the time you can only go out with a negative test certificate (same as before, since October pretty much). All commerce and services remain closed (since early October many of them, and since early December all the rest, except supermarkets and drugstores – but supermarkets are only allowed to sell basic food products and nothing else).
Now they’re also saying they’ll close all factories and industry next.
Snowden on Did we Agree to All of This?
The Outage at the Federal Reserve
Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Feb 27, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
The outage of the National Settlement Service and the Fedwire Securities Service, which provides issuance, settlement, and transfer services for Treasuries and other government securities, was down and this has caused some concern and then conspiracy theories mixed in. The Fed made progress reversing the shutdown within a couple of hours, however, this has illustrated that a long-term outage of the Fed’s online services could cause intense chaos across the world financial system, preventing banks and businesses from finalizing transactions and impeding basic banking functions.
The Federal Reserve said an outage of its key financial services on Wednesday was caused by a maintenance mistake and it is taking steps to prevent a recurrence. The official statement read:
“The incident was caused by an operational error involving an automated data center maintenance process that was inadvertently triggered during business hours,” a Fed spokeswoman said. Such tasks are normally performed after-hours, she said, adding, “This was human error.”
“Our technical teams have determined that the cause is a Federal Reserve operational error,” the Fed said on Wednesday on its website. “The Federal Reserve Banks have taken steps to help ensure the resilience of the Fedwire and NSS applications, including recovery to the point of failure.”
There was no power-outage so it does appear that the Federal Reserve was honestly calling it a disruption due to an ‘operational error’. This raises the issue of concern surrounding digital currency. Indeed, solar flares and other solar–mass ejections that travel through space can overwhelm Earth’s atmosphere and generate powerful electric and magnetic fields. These magnetic storms can occasionally be intense enough to disrupt the operation of high-voltage electricity lines. A digital currency system could be brought to its knees with an EM attack.
We do have an EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security which issued a report on China’s ability to conduct an Electromagnetic Pulse attack on the United States. China now has super-EMP weapons and could engage in a first-strike attack that could blackout the entire country. China could actually launch a surprise “Pearl Harbor” type attack that could produce a deadly blackout of the entire country. Indeed, China has built a network of satellites, high-speed missiles, and super-electromagnetic pulse weapons that could meltdown the electric power grid, fry critical communications, and even takeout the ability of our aircraft carrier groups to respond. All of this is possible today using EMP weapons rather than nuclear.
The outage at the Federal Reserve was not an attack, loss of power, or anything nefarious. It was indeed a human error. Nonetheless, this outage even for a few hours brought the economy to a halt. This is the system used by U.S. banks to execute some $3 trillion in transactions daily and the outage began around 11.15 am Eastern time on Wednesday, and remained down for more than three hours. Most of the key systems, including the backbone settlement services Fedwire and FedACH, were back online by 3 pm. Fedwire is the system for large transfers between banks which last year handled 184 million transactions totaling more than $840 trillion, or more than $3.3 trillion daily, according to Fed data.
Other affected systems included FedACH, the clearinghouse which generally handles smaller transactions such as paychecks, tax refunds, and utility bill payments. The National Settlement Service (NSS), used by depository institutions with Federal Reserve Bank master accounts, was also shutdown offline. Every other transaction service maintained by the Fed was also affected by the disruptions.
Fedwire Funds is the premier electronic funds-transfer service that banks, businesses, and government agencies rely on for mission-critical, same-day transactions. On a monthly basis, Fedwire handles more than 835,000 transactions a day on average, with a daily average dollar volume of $3.4 trillion.
CHIPS, a private-sector alternative to Fedwire run by The Clearing House, continued to operate normally. ET. CHIPS handles about $1.5 trillion a day, according to its website.
Is it Taxes or Debt Default Which Cause Revolution?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Revolution Re-Posted Feb 25, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, do you agree with other analysts who claim debt defaults create revolutions? From reading your work for decades now, I think you would say it was taxes. Am I correct?
Hopefully, see you at the next WEC again
KL
ANSWER: You are correct. Rome never had a national debt nor a central bank. State debt is really a post-Dark Age phenomenon and there have been plenty of sovereign defaults and the vast majority never involved revolution. The Spanish sovereign defaults took place, turning the country into a serial defaulter beginning in 1557 followed by 1570, 1575, 1596, 1607, and 1647 ending in a 3rd world status. Greece defaulted on its external sovereign debt obligations at least five previous times in the modern era (1826, 1843, 1860, 1894 and 1932). Even Magna Carta cut off the king’s ability to use the courts to raise money, which was before taxing the average person.
Anyone who claims that a sovereign default will unleash a revolution has not actually done the research. It is probably more of a sales pitch to get business with scare tactics. Both the American and French Revolutions were over taxes – not sovereign defaults.
We are headed into a revolutionary period, but it is being caused by this global hunt for taxation which is undermining the entire world economy. The sovereign default comes because of the collapse in commerce which is set in motion by raising taxes.
Yes, we are trying to pick a date for the next WEC. I am trying to be optimistic that our international clients can fly in. Of course, it all depends if Biden does not try to put a blockade around Florida because we have become the best state in America by preserving our freedom and it is at least far enough south to avoid the dip in the Jet Stream.
Deep Freezing In The Heart Of Texas
Re-Posted from GrrrGraphics.com FEB 22, 2021 AT 9:52 AM
AOC “Thinks” More Wind Turbines Will Solve ALl Our Problems
In Texas, the cold snap and power outages have finally abated. For nearly a week millions of Texans suffered power blackouts during severely cold weather. Water was out as well. For awhile, Texas was plunged into the Dark Ages.
Part of the problem is America’s crumbling infrastructure. It is something President Trump addressed. He wanted to build new power plants, airports, bridges, and highways. Instead we have Biden carrying on Obama’s work of destroying America for the benefit of socialism and our enemy, China.
Biden’s regime did not want Texans to resort to emergency measures and burn more fossil fuels. Instead they had to rely on malfunctioning wind and solar farms, which proved ineffectual. It’s a bitter cold irony that Texas is rich in oil, yet the power still went out and for those who did get power, their electric bills skyrocketed.
Alexandria Ocasio Cortez said her new Green New Deal would have helped to prevent the blackouts in Texas. It’s illogical for her to believe that climate change, global warming, and white supremacy are causing blackouts, but logic isn’t illuminating the socialist mind of AOC.
—Ben Garrison
Is This a Bubble?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Feb 24, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong,
My wife and I are trying to buy a second home. We live in Wisconsin and want a place somewhere warm. We are trying to buy in Florida, but we are financing it and we bid at the asking. However, on all of the properties, someone comes in with cash and ABOVE asking.
Are we buying into a bubble? Is it best to wait? I will only consider Florida because that is where you are based off of your computer.
Any guidance would be appreciated.
Best,
P
ANSWER: It does not appear to be a bubble. It is not just the real estate going up in Florida. The problem is limited supply and a mad dash out of New England, Illinois, and California. But this is taking place across the board. I was looking for a classic 328 Fararri of 1985 vintage. I use to have one in London. They were going for $50,000 on average. They are now running $100-$150,000 in 3 months. The same is happening in collectibles and art. It simply appears that we are entering the phase of a massive shift from Public to Private assets. This is our Index we have provided to our Institutional clients over the decades. The historic low was 2009 post-1968. This trend appears to be in motion overall into 2032.
In real estate, very few places up for sale and they are selling very fast. The draconian measures in the Democratic states like New York and California have accelerated the migration out of those regions. More than 1 million people have fled New York City to Florida already. You have major chains shutting down in New York City. New Yorkers are fleeing to Florida and so are the restaurants from New York. New Yorkers are realizing that even when vaccinated, it will not return to normal. New Yorkers are even migrating to Texas. But with the Ice Storms there, they are already shifting to Florida. Places like New York City are just no longer safe as is the case now in many cities in California. Gun permits are soaring in New York because of the sharp rise in crime. Politicians do not understand anything. If you are in business and sales decline, you run sales to try to boost activity. In New York, you impose lockdowns, revenue declines, so the solution is tax taxes and fees like tolls. You can’t make up this sort of brain-dead mismanagement. On top of all of that, the lockdowns have resulted in alcohol abuse, kids committing suicide for they cannot learn remotely, the very fabric of society is being torn apart.
I personally am not thrilled about this. Traffic has increased noticeably. Please go to the east coast! Even my house has doubled in value in four years. Florida is the safe-haven in the United States with no state income tax and no ice storms and a governor who has rejected the Democrat’s lockdown agenda that destroys society and business. It reminds me of my favorite movie, Brave Heart, being of Scottish heritage. They may take our lives, but they will never take our freedom. Just sometimes, you have to stand up against tyranny or you and your posterity will lose everything.
Centinel2012 