Monthly Archives: December 2017

Dec 21 2017

Are the EU’s Days Numbered?


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Dec 21, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

My recent meetings in Brussels reveals some concern what happens when Merkel loses power? Schultz is calling for the complete federalization of Europe – the United States of Europe as he puts it. The power is starting to slip between their fingers and as Italy approaches its confrontation with the EU in the next elections, there too we see the Social Democratic ruling party PD is losing its support in the same manner as the SPD in Germany.

Now with only a few weeks before the expected dissolution of the Italian parliament before the new elections, the PD is already down to only a 23.4% approval rating. The Socialist agenda is losing around the world just as Hillary lost in the States as did Schultz in Germany.

BerlusconiIn Italy, the center-right coalition of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is on the road to a major come-back gathering 36% of the polls, which is the strongest political party in Italy right now. The second party in line is also the anti-Euro Five-Star movement coming in at 28.2%.

If the polls are correct and the election took place today, 64.2% of the people would vote AGAINST the EU. This type of coalition could become the strongest single party in the next parliament and the strongest as a percent of the population throughout Europe. There is a rising feeling in Italy that the EU has been a disaster burdening them with refugees they refuse to compensate or allow to move north within Europe. Italy is now just trying to keep the EU out which or interfering ever again.

In Italy, a new parliament is likely to be elected at the beginning of March. It is expected that President Sergio Mattarella will dissolve Parliament between Christmas and New Year, paving the way for new elections.

I previously wrote that it was the EU which conspired to overthrow Berlusconi because he was anti-Euro back then and wanted to take Italy out before BREXIT. For Berlusconi, this is political payback.

The more political chaos in Europe, the crazier the markets will become in 2018 driving the dollar up until the monetary system cracks wide open.

Dec 21 2017

The Coldest Winter 2017/2018


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Dec 21, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

QUESTION: Mr, Armstrong; You said this year your computer is forecasting the coldest winter in a long time. I assume this is cyclical. Is this due to the sun diming?

KE

ANSWER: Yes, that is part of it. We look at correlations and what lines up with that is also a disruption in the Polar Jet Stream. That is how Ice Ages unfold. Pictured here is the normal picture of the Jet Stream. What correlates with the decline in the energy output of the sun appears to be the Polar Jet Stream plunges south even into Mexico.

This was what took place in early December. This will become a more common occurrence this year. Therefore, it will snow in the South and even into Mexico. Florida should escape the plunge, however, it will be unseasonably cooler by probably 10 degrees at the extreme points of reference.

So much for Global Warming. By the time we get to 2024, people will be willing to pay a tax to get warm.

Dec 20 2017

BREAKING: Due to Prosecutor Misconduct, Judge Declares Mistrial in Fed Case Against Cliven Bundy…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 20, 2017 by

Justice-time for Christmas !!  Against revelations of egregious prosecutorial misconduct, and withholding Brady evidence from the defense, Chief U.S. District Judge Gloria Navarro has declared a mistrial in the federal case against Nevada Rancher Cliven Bundy.

NEVADA – A federal judge declared a mistrial Wednesday in the case of a Nevada rancher accused of leading an armed standoff against the government in 2014, blaming prosecutors for withholding key evidence from defense lawyers, including records about the conduct of FBI and Bureau of Land Management agents.

Chief U.S. District Judge Gloria Navarro in Las Vegas dismissed a jury seated last month for the long-awaited trial of Cliven Bundy, his sons Ryan and Ammon Bundy and self-styled Montana militia leader Ryan Payne.

The decision is the latest in a string of failed prosecutions in Nevada and Oregon against those who have opposed federal control of vast swaths of land in Western states.

Jurors acquitted the two Bundy sons of taking over a federal wildlife refuge in Oregon for more than a month in early 2016 and amid calls for the U.S. government to turn over public land to local control.

In the Nevada case, Navarro faulted federal prosecutors for failing to turn over all evidence to defense attorneys.

“The government is obligated to disclose all evidence that might be favorable” to the defense, the judge said.

[…]  The judge had hinted last week that trouble was afoot. She sent the jury home to review sealed documents following closed-door hearings over complaints about the conduct of FBI and Bureau of Land Management agents during the standoff.

[…]  A whistleblower memo by a lead U.S. Bureau of Land Management investigator that was released last week alleges widespread bad judgment, bias and misconduct, as well as “likely policy, ethical and legal violations among senior and supervisory staff” in the days leading up to the standoff.

The memo said agents who planned and oversaw the cattle roundup mocked and displayed clear prejudice against the Bundys, their supporters and Mormons.

The investigator, Larry Wooten, said he was removed from the investigation last February after he complained to the U.S. attorney’s office in Nevada.

The judge freed the Bundy sons and Payne to house arrest during the trial after nearly two years in jail. Cliven Bundy refused the judge’s offer, with his lawyer saying the patriarch was holding out for acquittal.

“A mistrial is a very bad result for the government,” Ian Bartrum, a University of Nevada, Las Vegas, law professor who has followed the case closely told the Associated Press.

Bartrum had cast the trial as a test of whether the federal government could enforce its own land policy in Western states where it owns or controls vast expanses. (read more)

Dec 20 2017

Trump Tax Reform Passes – This Will be The Greatest Boost to Small Business in more than 30 years


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted Dec 20, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The House just passed the tax bill in a final vote after a procedural hiccup relegated the bill back to the floor for a second vote. The Senate passed the bill early Wednesday morning along party lines. The tax bill is on its way to President Trump’s desk now, slating the tax overhaul package to take effect in the new year. This sets up the GOP for its first major legislative win in Trump’s first year as president. They never accomplished anything before even when they had the power.

Dec 20 2017

Former Asst. FBI Director: “Something is About To Happen”…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 19, 2017 by

Former Asst. FBI Director James Kallstrom appeared on Fox Business News to discuss the details behind the increasingly transparent 2016 and 2017 Joint FBI and DOJ Counterintelligence Operation to target the candidacy -and block the presidency- of Donald J Trump.

Toward the end of the interview Mr. Kallstrom shares his view, based on current FBI contacts, that FBI insiders (white hats) are on the cusp of removing the cloud of mystery behind all of the obvious politicized shenanigans. When asked about his knowledge of the current morale within the FBI:

…”but I think recent events, that I’m aware of, are going to improve that, because there’s going to be something actually something that’s going to happen; in my view.” … “Well, I think there’s a lot of patriots that have just had it up to here, with what’s going on. And they’re to step forward and tell people what the shenanigans have been; how they shut down the Clinton Foundation investigation; how other things, you know, were done that are so anti what the FBI and United States is all about”…

Watch:

.

This would easily align with the years-long Office of Inspector General report by Michael Horowitz that is soon to be released.  The FBI ‘insiders’ would be the primary target audience for the questions from the Inspector General.  Similarly the IG would be the primary and statutory office where FBI white hats would go to become whistle-blowers.

As they say….  Stay frosty, but prepare the ‘tar and feathers’ just in case.

#ColdAnger

The BIG UGLY

.

RESOURCES:

IG Stimulated Releases of Information:

♦Release #1 was the FBI Agent Strzok and Attorney Lisa Page story; and the repercussions from discovering their politically motivated bias in the 2015/2016 Clinton email investigation and 2016/2017 Russian Election investigation.

♦Release #2 outlined the depth of FBI Agent Strzok and FBI Attorney Page’s specific history in the 2016 investigation into Hillary Clinton to include the changing of the wording [“grossly negligent” to “extremely careless”] of the probe outcome delivered by FBI Director James Comey.

♦Release #3 was the information about DOJ Deputy Bruce Ohr being in contact with Fusion GPS at the same time as the FISA application was submitted and granted by the FISA court; which authorized surveillance and wiretapping of candidate Donald Trump; that release also attached Bruce Ohr and Agent Strzok directly to the Steele Dossier.

♦Release #4 was information that Deputy Bruce Ohr’s wife, Nellie Ohr, was an actual contract employee of Fusion GPS, and was hired by F-GPS specifically to work on opposition research against candidate Donald Trump. Both Bruce Ohr and Nellie Ohr are attached to the origin of the Christopher Steele Russian Dossier.

♦Release #5 was the specific communication between FBI Agent Strzok and FBI Attorney Page. The 10,000 text messages that included evidence of them both meeting with Asst. FBI Director Andrew McCabe to discuss the “insurance policy” against candidate Donald Trump in August of 2016.

Dec 20 2017

Cold Wave Hits Thailand


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Dec 20, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Our staff in Thailand are reporting – “It’s Cold!” They are wearing coats in a place that is normally 30c (86f). Weather will continue to get strange in a lot of places around the globe. The decline in the energy output of the sun is extremely rapid and far more than anyone expected this quickly (see Bangkok Post).

Dec 20 2017

Swiss Market Index – Third Time a Charm?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Stock Indicies

Re-Posted Dec 20, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I attended your 1992 Zurich Institutional Seminar when the Swiss Market Index was trading just below 200. You gave your projection for the high in 2007 would be 9500.0. We sold that high at the bank and the market peaked at 9548.1. The market rallied back to 9537.9 in 2015 and we sold it again. I left the bank as you know and have retired with your turn in 2015. You have always said that if a market knocks on the door 3 times, it is going to go through. My question is, do you think this will hold true in Switzerland?

Keep up the excellent work. The world really needs you.

ABR

ANSWER: Yes. The next resistance target will be 11000-11200 level if we break through the 2007 high. Enjoy your retirement. Of course we never really stop thinking about the markets and the world. I suppose it is a curse of the trade.

As far as “The world really needs” me; that’s what I am afraid of. Getting drafted at my age is not exactly my idea of retirement. So I hope you are wrong on that forecast.

Good fortune.

Dec 20 2017

The Sun is Cooling Faster than Anyone Suspected


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Dec 20, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

The danger from the Global Warming crowd is that they are misleading the entire world and preventing us from what is dangerously unfolding that sparks the rapid decline in civilization – GLOBAL COOLING. I previously warned that this is not my opinion, but simply our computer. If it were really conscious it would be running to store to buy heating pads. This year will be much colder for Europe than the last three. It will also be cold in the USA. We are in a global cooling period and all the data we have in our computer system warns that the earth is turning cold not warm.

This cooling is very serious. This decline in the energy output of the sun will manifest in a commodity boom in agriculture as shortages send food prices higher. We will see famine begin to rise as crops fail and that will inspire disease and plagues. We will see the first peak in agricultural prices come probably around 2024 after the lows are established on this cycle. We have been warning that this rise would begin AFTER 2017.

 

Previously, I have reported that NASA confirmed we are going into a cooling period – not warming. They have put out a forecast of declining sunspot activity. Now NASA has come out confirming what our computer has been forecasting. They have reported that as the sun is experiencing a rapid decline in sunspots, it is also dimming in brightness or energy output. NASA’s Spaceweather station has recorded during 2017, 96 days (27%) of observing the sun have been completely absent of sunspots.

I have also previously warned that there is a 300-year cycle to this entire phenomenon. This cycle has aligned with the major turning point of the Economic Confidence Model 2015.75. During 2015, there were ZERO days observed without sunspots. The following year, 2016, came in with 9% of the days recorded without any sunspot activity. This jump to 27% here in 2017 is a substantial jump from 2015 that we cannot afford to ignore.

NASA launched a new sensor which is the International Space Station named TSIS-1. Its mission is to actually measure the dimming of the sun’s irradiance. It will replace the aging SORCE spacecraft and NASA has confirmed our computer forecast that the number of sunspots in this cycle will fall rapidly as it plunges into a date with its 11-year cycle minimum.

1918 InfluenzaHospitalThere was a sharp climate drop in 1916 creating a spike low in temperature. This 1916 spike low in our climate coincided with war and made this a devastating war aside from the poison gas. This was then combined with terrible influenza or flu pandemic of 1918 to 1919, which was the deadliest in modern history. This pandemic infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide or about one-third of the entire planet’s population. It killed an estimated 20 to 50 million victims.

This pandemic began in the spring of 1917 and some sources point to troops in France as being the center of the pandemic. A significant precursor virus, harbored in birds, mutated to pigs that were kept near the front. Others place it with troops in Austria. Nevertheless, influenza ran from mid-1917, became noticeable by January 1918, and continued into December 1920. The unusually deadly influenza pandemic shortened the overall life expectancy by 12 years. This influenza killed the strong rather than the weak since it thrived on the overreaction of the body’s immune system. The strong immune reactions of young adults fed the virus, whereas the weaker immune systems of children and middle-aged adults resulted in fewer deaths, which was very unusual.

Sunspot_Numbers

Across the entire electromagnetic spectrum, the sun’s output is declining. I personally hate cold. So this is not a forecast I want to see happen. Nevertheless, our computer has correlated this cooling trend with disease and it appears that famine also plays a role in this entire event. Additionally, a simple correlation with the energy output of the sun reveals that all major earthquakes occurred during strong solar minimums, which we are head smack into.

Consequently, there were 7 major earthquakes of 8.0 magnitude moving into the turning point in 2008-2010. Kiril Islands (Russia) twice- 8.1 (November 2006 & January 2007), Peru-8.0 (August 2007), Sumatra-8.5 (September 2007), Sichuan earthquake-8.0 (May 2008), Samoa-8.1 (September 2009), Maule (Chile)-8.8 (February 2010).

There are ways you can prepare. But do prepare. Do not wait until the very last second.

Dec 20 2017

Did the Economic Confidence Model Pick the Trump Tax Reform?


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Re-Posted Dec 20, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

It is very interesting how the 2017.9 (Nov 24/25) turning point on the Economic Confidence Model has marked a most astonishing political event. The House passed their version of the Trump Tax Reform on Thursday, November 16th, 2017 just 8 days before the ECM target. Then on November 29th, 2017, the Senate passed a procedural vote on the Trump Tax Reform bill that allowed debate to begin on the measure with a final vote which came on Saturday, December 2nd, 2017, which was 8 days after the ECM turning point making it the dead center between the two votes.

People have asked me constantly how in the world did I ever discover such a model that has worked amazingly? I have written before how I discovered this list of panics while doing research in the Princeton University Firestone Library. The time span was 224 years and the number of events was 26. I sought to simply see what the average was and that came out to be 8.61538461538. I had absolutely no idea how significant that number would prove to be.

As I observed this cycle, I was blown away by how accurate it had been. It was even accurate to the very day. That to me seemed very unlikely and strange. At first, I believed it was just a stroke of luck – a coincidence. But the more I observed the repetition to the day was taking place around the globe. The number of days in an 8.6-year cycle was 3,141 which was Pi (x 1000). That, of course, was the perfect cycle.

I will be republishing my work on this astonishing discovery. For now, the amazing regularity of this model is simply there for all of us to observe and wonder at the regularity of the world around us.

Dec 19 2017

The Answers America Needs Are Behind Questions Not Being Asked…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 19, 2017 by

Almost two weeks ago it was announced that U.S. District Court Judge Rudolph Contreras was mysteriously recused from the Special Counsel case against General Mike Flynn, five days after Judge Contreras accepting the initial pleading. No explanation as to ‘why’?

(Reuters) The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia judge presiding over the criminal case for President Donald Trump’s former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn has been recused from handling the case, a court spokeswoman said on Thursday. (read more)

One might think the media apparatus, or pundit proletariat writ large, might be curious about why a U.S. District Court Judge would be recused. Alas One would be wrong. The recusal angle is transparently missing from any follow-up by media; and apparently the judicial cat also has stolen the tongue of congressional curiosity. Nothing. Nada. Zilch.

The story has been memory holed into the concentric whirlpool of nothingness.

We have speculated that U.S. District Court Judge Rudolph Contreras was recused, either by himself or by challenge, because he is also a FISA Court Judge and could have signed off on the October FISA warrant that led to the wiretapping and surveillance of General Flynn. However, we have received information that it wasn’t ‘by challenge’, leaving the preponderance of the motive for recusal directly upon Judge Contreras personal decision.

(link)

However, if Judge Contreras ‘recused himself’ based on the conflict within the FISA warrant he approved, the question then becomes why did he even allow himself to preside over the first hearing of General Mike Flynn’s rather odd guilty plea?

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/366062176/content?start_page=1&view_mode=&access_key=key-QHaNTpsHk3My0BRqqECU

Was the September/October 2016 FISA warrant part of the evidence in the overall process charge against Mike Flynn? What are the rules of FISA warrant content in cases where the warrant leads to a prosecution?

Did Judge Contreras sit on the initial plea hearing so another judge would not see the FISA information, recognize any problems, and maybe not approve the plea?

The only two significant things that happened between the initial Mike Flynn plea hearing (December 1st) and the recusal from Judge Contreras (December 7th) was:

#1) The stories about anti-Trump FBI Agent Peter Strzok and his involvement with Fusion-GPS and Christopher Steele; and

#2) FBI Director Chris Wray appearing before the House Judicial Committee and hearing Representative Jim Jordan demand to see the 2016 FISA application.

In fact, Judge Contreras recused himself only a few hours after that House Judicial Committee hearing.

These are all just general questions that stem from Judge Contreras appearing to concede to a conflict, but doing so only AFTER the first administrative hearing on the case. If the conflict existed on December 7th 2017, such that a recusal was needed, would not that conflict exist prior to December 7th, 2017?

Apparently no-one else is in the least bit curious; and absent of anyone seeking such clarity; it leads CTH to wonder if U.S. District Court Judge Rudolph Contreras wasn’t possibly the same judge that denied the initial FISA application in June of 2016.

It’s very rare that a FISA application is denied. Considering he possibility the denial was based, in part, on the target (candidate Donald Trump) of the FISA warrant; and considering the massive ramifications within the U.S. government applying to monitor, wiretap and use surveillance upon a presidential candidate; it would not be a stretch to think Judge Contreras would establish a ‘higher threshold’ for granting such authority.

Given what we know now, that we did not know before, namely that FBI Agent Peter Strzok and DOJ Deputy Bruce Ohr were part of the counterintelligence operation that began in July 2016…. and understanding that Nellie Ohr, Bruce’s wife, was working for Fusion GPS the contractor for Christopher Steele and the Russian Dossier…. ultimately hired by Hillary Clinton;…. and accepting that the information within the dossier was part of the underlying FISA application… the entire construct of the FISA application is suspect.

Adding yet another layer to that sketchy outline, today it is revealed that Peter Strzok’s mistress within the DOJ, Lisa Page, might have been the actual DOJ official to apply for the FISA warrant. (SEE HERE)

Which takes us back to U.S. District Court Judge Rudolph Contreras. Was the recusal an outcome of Contreras recognizing the concerns he expressed in the June 2016 FISA denial, that were later presumably belayed with a more narrow FISA application, evidenced in his seeing how the FISA warrant he granted being used against the defendant that appeared in his courtroom.

Did Contreras see in Flynn’s outcome – evidence of what he feared would happen? And that lead to Judge Contreras deciding to recuse himself from the case?

So many questions, and yet a transparent lack of overall curiosity around the recusal.

FBI Agent Peter Strzok’s former boss was Bill Priestap, FBI Asst. Director in charge of Counterintelligence. [The same Bill Priestap James Comey stated was the person who decided not to tell congressional oversight of the investigation] Bill Priestap’s boss was FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe. Directly above McCabe in the chain-of-command was FBI Director James Comey.

Inside the DOJ: Associate Deputy Attorney General Bruce G Ohr’s former boss was Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates. Sally Yates boss was Attorney General Loretta Lynch.

It is not coincidental that yesterday the FBI and DOJ “small group” began executing a media narrative in both an Exclusive NBC Report (Priestap) and Wall Street Journal (Strzok).  Additionally it is not coincidental that Sally Yates is protesting loudly on Twitter Today.

‘The more she spoke of her honor, the faster we counted our spoons’:

The Robert Mueller “small group” lawyer, the Special Counsel attorney that signed General Flynn’s Statement of Offense filed in U.S, District Court 12/1/2017 was “Brandon L Van Grack”. [See page #5]

When Trump transition team lawyer Kory Langhofer (Trump for America transition organization) contacted the special counsels office about the illegal and unethical way they retrieved transition team emails from the GSA. Who was he put in contact with?

It was attorney Brandon L Van Grack who was in communication with the Trump for America transition organization; and, according to the documents on this topic (pdf letter link), misrepresented (ie. lied about) the Special Counsel access to the GSA emails on 12/12/2017.

What reason would Attorney Brandon Van Grack have for taking the call from the transition attorney in the first place? and then: What reason would he have for lying about the information that was requested?

It is my belief, not speculation – but rather based on mounting evidence, a specific cast of characters -within the Mueller “Russia Election Interference” probe- were placed there specifically to protect the people behind the FBI and DOJ 2016 counterintelligence operation against candidate Donald Trump.

Accordingly, I suspect the same FBI and DOJ “small group”, the team who worked diligently to ensure Hillary Clinton was never found culpable in the 2015/2016 email investigation, also worked on the 2016 Trump counterintelligence operation (FISA wiretapping surveillance etc).

That same “small group” within the FBI and DOJ were then given the task in 2017 of covering both prior operations: A) *Clear Hillary Clinton, and B) *Counterintel op on Trump. To cover, cloud and protect the DOJ and FBI officials engaged in both operations, the “small group” is now assembled within Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel team.

Inside Mueller’s crew, the “small group” essentially works to watch over what information the Trump officials or congress could possibly be discovering…. under the auspices of investigating ‘Muh Russia’ etc. If the “small group” comes across a risky trail being followed, they work to impede, block, delay or deflect anyone from that trail.

That explains why the Special Counsel attorney that signed General Flynn’s Statement of Offense filed Dec. 1, was the same attorney who responded to the Trump transition team inquiry. Brandon L Van Grack.

This “small group” are essentially career DOJ and FBI staff lawyers and support personnel standing behind and beside the visible names we have recently become aware of: Peter Strzok, Bruce Ohr, Lisa Page, Bill Priestap, Andrew McCabe, Sally Yates, etc.

DAVENYIII is entirely correct when he shares:

“OIG Michael Horowitz set up the twitter account @OversightGov in May of 2017 and the OIG website in October 2017. He wants the public involved in IG findings so that the media and agencies can’t bury them.”

Oversight Investigations Website HERE

Oversight Investigative Reports HERE

Inspector General Michael Horowitz knows how the Uniparty works within the administrative state to defend itself behind closed doors and in the cover of darkness.

Follow the lead of IG Horowitz, demand sunlight.

Sunlight is the best disinfectant.