Biden is ushering in new socialistic policies and there are no checks and balances. I mentioned a few weeks ago how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are changing Loan Level Price Adjustments (LLPAs) on conventional loans. To ensure “fairness,” the agencies are helping “underserved” home buyers by reducing costs for those with lower credit scores and less money for down payments. Borrowers with a credit score under 680 will be rewarded, while those who spent years maintaining a high level of creditworthiness will see higher rates. So those with good credit and savings will be subsidizing mortgages for others who are less financially responsible.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is using the race card and claiming this will help people of color secure loans. “In the short term, this may increase homeownership among the targeted group, but I’m afraid it could decrease homeownership among the middle class,” said Jerry Howard, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. “I’m not sure that we’re not robbing Peter to pay Paul here.” People of color can also have good credit and savings for a downpayment, and it is an insult to say otherwise. As of now, lenders are solely looking at the colorblind numbers and race is not a factor. This is merely a ploy to see how this administration can slowly replace our republic with socialism.
This is completely unconstitutional and it’s telling how this measure passed with little backlash. Do not trash your credit because the rules of this rigged game always change. There will be backlash once people see the additional fees that the Biden Administration calls “minimum.” An extra $40 per month on a $400K loan amounts to over $14,400 over the course of a 30-year mortgage. Moreover, already stressed banks will be forced to provide loans at a lower rate to people who should not qualify. The law goes into effect on May 1, right in time for the busy spring season. Biden is forcing people to redistribute their wealth, and we are not talking about real wealth. Those with real wealth are buying in cash right now. This directly hurts the middle class who believed that working hard could afford them the now imaginary American dream.
Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $ Re-Posted Apr 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty; I was in a board meeting and I just wanted to let you know one guy who is there simply because his family had a stake in the company with zero worldly experience, started ranting about the end of the dollar he probably read on that biased _____________________. I asked this fool, should we then move all our company funds to Russia or China since Brazil is too small of an economy? Should we stop dealing with Americans? He had no response.
Separating a fool from his money seems to be a never-ending fact about humanity.
Cheers
You are the only sane one out there these days
PY
REPLY: I know what you mean. The people promoting this BRICS nonsense have no understanding of the real world. Institutions cannot park billions in Brazil, China, or Russia. Especially in the face of war. The reason the Euro has failed as a serious reserve currency is that there is NO NATIONAL EURO DEBT! Institutions have to still jockey between the various risks of each country and all the Euro did was transfer the foreign exchange risk to the bond market. Sorry, I just do not see where the dollar is in some state of collapse.
When they came to me to create the Euro, I warned them that there would be no single interest rate without the consolidation of the debt. But Kohl never allowed the German people to vote on joining the Euro, so he would not allow the consolidation of the debt. I was told then that they just had to get the Euro started and they would worry about consolidating the debts later. Of course, that never came. Hence, the volatility in FX simply moved to the debt market. The bottom line – the US dollar is still the ONLY place for major institutions to park money – PERIOD! They are not buying Brazil, China, or Russia.
World Trade as a percent of total world GDP PEAKED in 2008 at 61%. It has been in a bear market that will not bottom before 31.4 years taking us into 2040. The sanctions on Russia have divided the world economy and killed SWIFT but it has also ended globalization. To think that the BRICS can replace the dollar with ZERO capacity for international capital to park in such markets is the delusion of absolute fools. China will surpass the USA, but only after 2032.
So here we go again. This nonsense is leading unsuspecting people to follow the piper to divest of dollars and move into what exactly? Most of this is propagated by the gold bugs who will NEVER listen. They hate the dollar because they think gold will rise then. What kind of a world will exist if their doom and gloom were a reality? You might not have any place to spend your wealth. I own gold NOT as an investment, but because of its neutrality.
There is such a major fraud going on with digital currencies with people reporting that the latest scam is using social media to tell people to transfer all their cash to a digital wallet, and BTW – here is the link! If you believe that one, perhaps you would like to buy the Brooklyn Bridge. NYC has a deficit and they will sell it for all the money in your savings. Wake up!
These people remind me of the famous drawing of a fool and his cat.
NEW YORK — April 24, 2023— FOX News Media and Tucker Carlson have agreed to part ways. We thank him for his service to the network as a host and prior to that as a contributor.
Mr. Carlson’s last program was Friday April 21st. Fox News Tonight will air live at 8 PM/ET starting this evening as an interim show helmed by rotating FOX News personalities until a new host is named.
Tucker Carlson had the number one rated news and broadcast show across the entire media industry.
All we hear is the same claims that the dollar is dead and it will be totally worthless any day now. Over the last few weeks, all we hear from the majority now is that the dollar is finished. Virtually every page you turn or site you visit claims the death of the dollar. They are calling this the de-dollarization of the world economy and that the future of the US dollar as well as the American empire itself is now collapsing. The general claim is that the group of economically-aligned nations known collectively as BRICS is a major threat to the greenback. That was the same story we heard about the Euro back in 1997.
As their scenario goes, the BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa] have moved to form an anti-dollar colation and Saudi Arabia is considering jumping on board. They insist that once that happens, the “petrodollar” will die and cease to be a reserve currency.
This is then followed by the forecast that the economy will suffer and that any bounce in exports will be short-lived simply because the dollar will be dead for the long term. Of course, this has been the favorite forecast that they keep putting out since Bretton Woods collapsed. They were wrong back then for the dollar rose between 1972 and 1976 against the British pound, with the collapse of Bretton Woods. To try to explain why the dollar did not collapse, that is when they claimed that the dollar was backed now by oil rather than gold. That was just an excuse as always to cover up their wrong forecast.
They sold that story to Newsweek and now the dollar rally was because of oil which replace gold. Suddenly the dollar became de facto backed by oil. They needed an explanation to explain why all the old theories were wrong. They sold this theory and it made the front cover of Newsweek. Everyone said YES! That must be the reason. OPEC priced oil in dollars! Naturally, everything was priced in dollars because, under the fixed exchange rate of Bretton Woods, everything from wheat and corn to copper and gold was all priced in dollars.
Now they are saying the American empire is threatened by the potential commercial real estate collapse and the BRICS anti-dollar venture. So they are forecasting a great depression-style crash is possible in the not-too-distant future. They spin this to forecast the end of the America Empire. The London FT, always anti-American/Pro WEF, reports that the dollar as a reserve currency has declined from 73% in 2001 to around 55% by 2021. Yet the FT did state an obvious fact:
“But if you are a reserve-rich central bank elsewhere that isn’t going to be a lot of comfort. Moreover, would you really feel more comfortable in, say, the renminbi? Even if it was fully convertible and liquid, would you honestly feel more sure that Beijing will behave lawfully than DC? The dollar still looks like the proverbial least dirty shirt in the closet.”
COVID actually has played a major role in shifting the world economy. In 2020, the US economy was 24.75% of the world’s GDP. By the start of 2022, it had fallen marginally to 24.15%. What these dollar-forecasting jockeys do not understand, is that if they were correct and the dollar collapsed, then the very BRICS would collapse even further. Economically speaking, when the United States gets a head cold, the rest of the world catches ammonia. You can’t have it both ways. The strength of the dollar is not gold or oil, it is the American consumer.
The risk to the entire world is runaway inflation thanks to Biden pouring untold amounts of money into the black hole known as Ukraine. The Neocons, who control Biden, are planning to launch a war against Russia and China before 2024. This will only continue to accelerate inflation. That reduces the spending power of the American consumer and in the process, the US economic growth declines in real terms and with it, the rest of the world plunges into recession.
While Macron has figured it out that the Neocons are in charge of US foreign policy and he is telling Europe to stop being the puppet of the USA, that all sounds nice but Europe is marching into war with Russia. NATO is firmly in control of the American Neocons and they need war or face losing power. With Trump in the lead, they must stop him at all costs for he is anti-war, would haul the Neocons out by the necks, and defund NATO, as well as stop the climate change agenda.
The US dollar in the global economy has been supported by the size and strength of the US consumer-based economy. Its stability and openness to trade and capital flows without restrictions and it has never been canceled, are the major foundation of the dollar in addition to strong property rights and the rule of law. That is why Russians and Chinese buy US property for they are secure in their ownership of US property which cannot always be guaranteed outside the US.
Consequently, the depth and liquidity of US financial markets remain unmatched. For institutions parking billions, the United States represents a large supply of extremely safe dollar-denominated assets. Are they really going to switch to China or buy debt from Brazil? Not a single institutional client will take that bait.
China has been divesting of dollar reserves because it KNOWS that the American Neocons want war. You do not fund your adversary who intends to wage war against you. China cannot shift reserve assets to Europe or Japan. They have been buying gold because it is geopolitically neutral territory. They are NOT buying gold as an investor thinking it will rally. That is irrelevant. If gold drops 25%, that does not translate into them becoming a seller.
The dollar in international reserves stood at 60+% at the start of 2022 against the US share of GDP at 24.25%. This comparison belittles the argument that the dollar is finished. Eventually, the US will lose the wars it is starting and the dollar will be replaced perhaps as soon as 2028. The IMF is already licking its lips and rubbing its hands together eager to get control of the reserve currency. But they too will collapse. We have a Directional Change next year and a Panic Cycle in 2025. So buckle up.!
Remember one thing, even with the debasement and collapse of the Roman Denarius between 260AD and 268AD, it still took 224 years for Rome to completely collapse. When war breaks out, capital flight will still be to the dollar. It will not be to public assets, but private. The United States is still supporting the entire world economy. The BRICS need the US consumer to keep their economies functioning. All this talk of the dollar being finished is really nonsense. That day will come, but when the US consumer no longer buys.
Remember 1997? The Euro was going to dethrone the dollar. They claimed the new EU will be a bigger economy than the US. The problem was, they lacked a consumer economy, and low taxes, and they routinely canceled their currency to force people to pay taxes. It is always the same story over and over again.
Any company that is adopting WOKE should be out of business for what they are really doing is dividing the country and completing what our computer has forecast – the breakup of the United States. The WOKE Agenda is attacking the religious beliefs of many and that historically always leads to division, discrimination, and often outright war.
When a company endorses what they think is some political agenda, it will lose the business from the opposition. This whole thing about transgender is out of control. Instead of eliminating discrimination, they are creating it. People will then blame the transgender movement for all sorts of things as they have done to Jews, Catholics, Muslims, and Protestants. There is no solution here. By endorsing WOKE, they are undermining the religious beliefs of others. You end up creating disunity – not unity.
Companies should NEVER take sides in politics especially when they attack religious beliefs. It is one thing to lobby for your business against some regulation. But endorsing this WOKE agenda is part of the Great Divide that is clearly a major factor contributing to the demise of the United States by dividing the people between blue and red. Abortion already offends many religious beliefs. Then there is taxation and war. This WOKE Agenda will be one of the factors historians will look back on for breaking up the United States.
During the Hard Times that followed the Panic of 1837, there was discrimination against the Irish Catholics for taking jobswhen they migrated to the States. That led to even gun battles on the street. Just as Germany singled out the Jews, any time you single out any group, you divide your society, undermining the state’s foundation.
We are all equal or we are not. When we are, great civilizations are formed. When Philadelphia was founded by William Penn, a Quaker, it was on the principle of religious freedom. The first Catholic Church was erected there along with the first churches of just about every denomination. The whole slavery issue and the Civil War also involved religion.
This WOKE Agenda is extremely dangerous because it attacks the religious beliefs of many. Besides the American Civil War with its roots in religion, the same was true of the English Civil War which was Protestant v Catholic. India & Pakistan separated over religion – Buddhist v Islam. The Protestant Revolution was actually funded by Catholic bankers who wanted to compete with the Jews but could not get into the trade since lending money for interest was the Sin of Usury.
Arnaud Amalric (died 1225) was a very prominent abbot in the Albigensian Crusade (1209–1229), also known as the Cathar Crusade. They were persecuted because they believed in two Gods or philosophies, with the first one being good and the second being evil. It was during this religious war, which was covertly really for French political gain, that the monk Amalric is best remembered for allegedly advising a soldier who was worried about killing orthodox Catholics in the process of killing declared Cathar heretics. He said:
“NovitenimDominusquisunteius.” (“Kill them. For the Lord knows those that are His own.”)
The historical list goes on and on. The number of wars and civil uprisings that offended religious beliefs are countless. This WOKE Agenda is NOT about discrimination, it is an agenda that undermines the state and will lead to the breakup of the United States precisely as our computer has forecast.
This WOKE Agenda has prompted more than just a boycott of BUD. It has produced Woke Free American Beer. I’m not a beer drinker, I prefer Scotch. So I cannot speak to how it compares to Bud. But you can try it yourself to make that decision at Ultrarightbeer.com.
This is what I mean. This is not really an economic right-wing thing, it has its roots in religious beliefs. A friend from Europe came and we went down to Key West which is a major hangout for the Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender crowd (LGBT/LGBQT). We saw a guy who could have been a linebacker in high heels with a black mini-skirt standing on the corner and people were taking pictures with him. He was obviously making serious cash. He was certainly not very feminine looking and with the heels, he stood over 7ft. Nobody was insulting him, they were lining up to have their photo taken with him.
This Woke Free American Beer commercial starts with Seth Weathers standing outside of a women’s bathroom and saying, “America has been drinking beer from a company that doesn’t even know which restroom to use.”
Welcome to the Great Divide
The time is quickly approaching when we will turn out the light on this American Experiment
COMMENT #1: On April 10th the IMF released UNICOIN, est Voila! Zee beginning of zee end?
Lawrence
COMMENT #2: Marty, the ECM target was way too much. The Pentagon Papers was one thing, but precisely April 10th is when the IMF announced its new currency to dominate the world. Your ECM is just incredible. Why so many things of great importance take place on this model is proof that there is a hidden order behind everything.
TJ
COMMENT #3: Marty, As you know, I was there at your 1987 conference for the Crash which was caused by the G5 manipulation of the currency that began in 1985. That culminated in the collapse of communism and the Japanese crash of 1989. Here we have once again the IMF announcing on the very day of the ECM April 10th, that they are releasing their new currency to replace the dollar. This looks like it will impact the entire world economy and the war you have been warning about post-2024.
I don’t know how this model works even to the precise day. It is easy to see why they tried to kill you thinking it was just your opinion and influence. They refuse to consider that perhaps there is something much more at stake than anyone’s opinion.
Thank you for this eye-opening discovery.
EK
REPLY: I do not know why this will work to the price day in wave after wave. Even the 2007 target was the very day of the crash in the mortgage-backed market. They were calling it Armstrong’s Revenge on the floor. They locked me up but it still was working as scheduled proving it was never my “influence” that they were so convinced about. There is something there, and it is about time we acknowledge it.
The government was furious when the New Yorker wrote about this model and called it the Secret Cycle. I believe that caused the journalist a lot of trouble. If there is a hidden order, that means the government cannot manipulate society as it thinks it can. This is why we are headed into 2032. They are fighting for their survival. They are pushing for digital currency, will terminate all paper money, and then you will see that they will restrict us from buying or selling anything they do not approve
Welcome to the 21st century of Economic Slavery. This is also the Third Millennium of the Anno Domini or Common Era in the Gregorian calendar spanning the years 2001 to 3000 (21st to 30th centuries). As I have warned, reactions are always TWO or THREE units of TIME and everything is FRACTAL. We are in the same position on a grand scale as April 10th, which was 2.15 years into this cycle. We are approaching the 2150 years target and our republican forms of government globally will not survive.
I am working long days to finish this book on the ECM. I promise it will be an eye-opener as you have said.
Posted originally on the CTH on April 16, 2023 | Sundance
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, appears on Face the Nation to describe the current status of EU success in shrinking the economy to achieve parity with the shrinking of energy development. Ms. Lagarde is very happy with their ‘management of the transition’ so far, and sees slow economic growth combined with a citizenry happily accepting the lower standard of living, the new normal.
As Lagarde outlines, the lowered economic activity is helping the central banks support the objectives of the government officials and corporations who are giving the instructions. Overall, she is optimistic the common man and woman will continue accepting less ability to achieve personal economic and financial success, as the bankers and politicians continue managing the western transition. Things are going swimmingly. WATCH:
MARGARET BRENNAN: We’re joined now by Christine Lagarde, former head of the IMF, now the president of the European Central Bank. Good morning.
PRESIDENT OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK CHRISTINE LAGARDE: Good morning, Margaret. Lovely to be back.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Good to have you here, and your recovery is going all right?
MADAME LAGARDE: Yes, in a couple of days, I think I’ll be fine.
MARGARET BRENNAN: I’m glad to hear that. You have a long list of things ahead of you. And I want to ask you about the global recovery. You were speaking a few days ago and you said the recovery for the economy is fragile and uncertain in this country. The Fed thinks we’ll see a mild recession later this year. What is it that you predict?
MADAME LAGARDE: First of all, there is recovery. That’s, I think, a point that was not really firm only six months ago where we all assumed that there would be a recession, if only a technical one. If you look at all the forecasts at the moment, it’s all positive. It’s been slightly downgraded. But overall, we have a recovery and we are faced with high uncertainty because of multiple factors, you know, from all corners of the world. It’s the war in Ukraine. It’s the financial stability that clearly has been shaken up a bit by the US and Switzerland development. It’s inflation that we are fighting. It’s all that which really create a hollow of uncertainty around a recovery that we want to embed. That’s pretty much where we are.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So there were those recent bank failures here in the United States, also one in Switzerland. Given that, it sounds like you’re saying you don’t see a hard landing, you’re seeing a positive trajectory for the global economy?
MADAME LAGARDE: I think we have a narrow path to navigate, which requires that both the governments and the central banks around the world adopt the right policies.
MARGARET BRENNAN: OPEC just cut output.
MADAME LAGARDE: Hm?
MARGARET BRENNAN: OPEC just cut output, but you don’t see that as a disruption?
MADAME LAGARDE: I know. And- and we have to be very attentive. But in the meantime, if you look at- I’ll have to look at Europe at the moment. We have reduced our overall consumption of gas energy, for instance, by more than 15 percent. So it’s not as if we negotiated here or there. We just cut down our energy consumption, number one. Number two, we have renegotiated with multiple partners ranging from Norway to the United States of America, which is a big supplier of our energy. And I think that our dependency, which we learned the hard way about, has significantly declined. So I think that we moved from the illusion of plenty of energy, free money, to a time of resilience and building buffers. This is what has happened.
MARGARET BRENNAN: It’s interesting to hear that optimism. I mean, given the bank failures we just saw, you hear from bank CEOs in this country, this idea that they’re getting more cautious about lending money, largely that there’s some contraction in credit there. How concerned are you and how does that complicate your planning?
MADAME LAGARDE: It’s funny you should ask, complication because in a way it facilitates my planning and it complicates the future as far as growth.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Because it slows down business activity so you don’t have to raise rates as much or as frequently.
MADAME LAGARDE: We don’t have to reduce. We’ll see. Because we need to really measure what will come out of this- this financial events that took place recently. What impact will it have? How will banks react? How will they assess risk and how much credit will they lend? But if they don’t lend too much credit and if they manage their risk, it might reduce the work that we have to do to reduce inflation, okay? But if they reduce too much credit, then it will weigh on growth excessively. So it’s a fine balance to have between credit risk, good management on the one hand, and on the other hand, financing the economy as is expected by- by the business community. The business community wants to invest at the moment. Some of them have big buffers and they can use those buffers, others are going to need credit financing from the banking sector and the markets, both of them.
MARGARET BRENNAN: I want to ask you about the U.S.. And it’s not a political question, it’s an economic one. But there are predictions that the U.S. could default in its national debt as soon as June, some say September, and we have a political standoff in this country, virtually no negotiation happening on how to resolve this. Does that undermine your confidence in the United States? And what message does that send to the world?
MADAME LAGARDE: I have huge confidence in the United States. You know, ever since my year in this country, and this city in ’73, ’74, I have had confidence in this country and I just cannot believe that they would let such a major, major disaster happen of the United States defaulting on its debt. This is not possible. I cannot believe that it would happen. But if it did happen, it would have very, very negative impact, not just for this country where confidence would be challenged, but around the world. Let’s face it, this is the largest economy. It’s a major leader in economic growth around the world. It cannot let that happen. I understand the politics, I’ve been in politics myself. But there is a time when the higher interest of a nation has to prevail. I’m sorry.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And you think that will happen?
MADAME LAGARDE: I have huge trust in this country yet again.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You’re bringing a lot of optimism to a show where we don’t have a lot of optimism.
MADAME LAGARDE: Oh. I’m sorry (laughs)
MARGARET BRENNAN: No, I like it. It’s interesting. It’s a change. I want to ask you, though, about what you just said in terms of U.S. leadership. You look to the other side of the globe and Xi Jinping has said he wants China to be the world’s leading power by 2049. And Beijing is very interlinked into so many economies, particularly in Europe. Is the U.S. losing global influence?
MADAME LAGARDE: There is clearly a competition between these- these large economies. The U.S. is the first economy in the world. China is clearly competing, and is putting all forces in that competition. I think competition is healthy. It has to stimulate innovation. It has to stimulate productivity. But it’s inevitable that these two large economies are facing each other. What I hope very much is that they can have a dialogue because, you know, all these relationships, whether it’s trade, whether it’s politics, whether it’s economic development, whether it is financial stability, it’s a two-way street. We cannot ignore each other, and trade should not be confrontational. It has to be careful. It has to identify the areas that are strategic for one country or the other- or all the others. But it shouldn’t be confrontational. I’m on the same page as Henry Kissinger on that, or Kevin Rudd, the new Australian ambassador. Conflict is not unavoidable.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But there is, it seems, increased political pressure to choose between the United States and China in many ways in some of these political capitals. Is that even practical from an economic point of view?
MADAME LAGARDE: It would lead to economic downside, the amount of which is uncertain. Is the global economy going to be affected by one or X percent? There are multiple forecasts, all of them are negative. So the decoupling and the sort of bipolarization of the world would lead to less economic growth, less prosperity in the world, more poverty across the world. So I think that this is something that should be by all means avoided.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Madame Lagarde, it’s always wonderful to have you here. Thank you. We’ll be right back.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is targeting gas vehicles in an attempt to reduce emissions. Their goal is to reduce carbon emissions by 10 billion tons before 2055 to “protect public health.” In turn, 67% of new personal vehicles will be electric by 2032. The average price of an electric vehicle (EV) is $64,338 and completely out of reach for the average American consumer. The war on the working class rages on.
The measure will also cut oil imports by 20 billion barrels. Half of all buses and garbage trucks, 35% of short-haul freight tractors, and 25% of long-haul freight tractors will also be EV. This is guaranteed to propel inflation and cause supply chain issues. What will truckers do when the weather is poor or they need to stop for hours to charge their truck? Extreme weather can cause the range of an EV to decline by 20%. One of my vehicles is electric, but that’s not the car I am depending on for long drives.
America’s infrastructure cannot handle such a steep increase in EVs. We saw California urge residents not to charge their cars during the Labor Day heat wave. Some areas in Florida lost power during Hurricane Ian, and people could not drive. Texas experienced a similar problem when its power grid was experiencing issues. How will school buses operate during bad weather?
The bill focuses solely on tailpipe emissions and fails to consider the resources needed to create these vehicles. The batteries in these vehicles use 10X more energy than the average household uses in one day. The cobalt within these vehicles is mostly mined through modern-day slavery in the Congo. This also requires mining for things like lithium and cobalt. Lithium mining is extremely harmful to the environment. South America has experienced water supply contamination near lithium mining regions, and Tibet reported marine life dying in mass near some of their facilities.
The goal is to limit fossil fuel usage, not to help the environment. “Yet another draconian rule from the Biden Admin,” Rep. Dan Newhouse, R-Wash., said. “From gas stoves to vehicles, their anti-American energy policies put our nation on a dangerous path. It’s time for the government to stop over-regulating our lives and protect our energy independence.” Some have pointed out that insurance alone for an EV is 26% higher than combustion-engine vehicles, and maintenance costs are also much higher. Car ownership may soon be unattainable to a portion of the population.
The talking heads have been warning of a housing crash, but that is not what Socrates indicated. The 30-year fixed rate is around 6.89% at the time of this writing. Housing costs continue to rise, causing the costs of servicing mortgage debt to rise. Housing inventory is limited, and a recent report explains why we saw mass layoffs in the banking sector. The demand is still there and it is a sellers’ market. Cash is king when it comes to real estate for those who can afford it. Mortgage lenders are in trouble. In fact, only 32% of mortgage companies were profitable in 2022 compared to 98% in 2020.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) recently announced that independent mortgage banks and subsidiaries of chartered banks lost around $301 for every mortgage they financed in 2022. This marks a 113% decline from the prior year’s average and the first-time banks are seeing losses on mortgage products. This is not 2008 when banks handed out loans to anyone who asked.
“The rapid rise in mortgage rates over a relatively short period of time, combined with extremely low housing inventory and affordability challenges, meant that both purchase and refinance volume plummeted,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The stellar profits of the previous two years dissipated because of the confluence of declining volume, lower revenues, and higher costs per loan.” Production costs reached a high of $10,624 per loan last year. Productivity was 1.5 loans originations per production employee, down from 2.5 per employee the year prior, and an indicator of why we are seeing layoffs in the banking sector. No one is refinancing at these rates either and most chose a fixed rate, as we saw what happened in 2008 with adjustable costs.
First-time mortgages reached an all-time high of $323,780 last year, up from $298,324, the largest annual increase since the MBA began collecting data. The increased cost of loans increased the cost of serving mortgages. The MBA expects volume to decline further in 2023 before rallying in 2024 and 2025. The banking crisis may lead to banks and lenders selling off their mortgage debts once they cannot afford to service the debt. Again, the housing crisis today is not relative to the 2008 crash.
QUESTION #1: Dear Martin Armstrong, Thank you for your unwavering support of humanity and truth. The question I have is about the growing number of countries seeking to divorce themselves from the USD in favor of the alternate BRICS system. Yet when I try to make sense of the current Secured Dollar Funding Complex involving Cash Lenders, Fixed Income and Repo Clearing Banks, Commercial Paper, CD’s, Syndicated and Interbank Loans, Wholesale, Retail and Corporate Deposits, Corporate & Sovereign Bonds, etc. How likely is the world to cleanly disconnect from this entangled web and over what anticipated time frame, rapidly or a long drawn out affair? Sincerely,
Roy
QUESTION #2: Marty, is all this sudden talk about dethroning the US dollar coming just when April was a major target for the Euro bounce?
HJ
COMMENT #3: You have always said when China starts selling dollars, it is time for war. It looks like they are right on schedule.
Pete
ANSWER: All of this talk of dethroning the dollar is right on time. Yes, April was the target and we should be very careful here for this April/May period is critical on a global basis. As for the BRICS displacing the dollar in the trade as so many are saying, this only PROVES they are just putting out biased claims being anti-dollar with pure sophistry. This reveals that they do not understand anything about the economy, trade, or international finance.
Yes, the Euro elected a Monthly Bullish Reversal (Buy Signal). However, it MUST exceed 11100 on a monthly closing basis to suggest the euro can advance further on a sustained basis. If the Euro exceeds intraday the February high, then a monthly closing below 108 would warn we may be looking at the war and the flight to the dollar would unfold. I would expect that capital controls would be introduced by the end of the year.
First of all, the very reason they created the Euro was to end FX risk and to create a single market. If the BRICS create a competitive currency, then they are introducing FX Risk and that will REDUCE trade with the United States. If the dollar declines, then they will suffer a loss of trade. What makes the US dollar the reserve currency is the fact that the US is the largest consumer-based economy that everyone wants to sell to. I find it laughable how these people pretend to understand finance but are ignorant in reality offering nothing but sophistry.
They can create whatever currency they desire, but they cannot force the FX risk on their buyers. I helped to reorganize the Japanese auto industry where they priced their cars in dollars to the States and took back the FX Risk to be managed. They beat the Germans who were pricing their cars in DMarks during the 70s and soon their sales were declining to the Japanese. I was then later called in by German companies to teach them about FX Risk. and market share. Creating some new reserve currency is pointless if they put the FX risk on their customers.
As far as China, I cannot believe how the bias has skewed the analysis. People are actually saying they are selling dollars because the dollar will be dethroned. China has been dependent on the US economy to make money. They would NEVER sell dollars to simply dethrone the reserve status of the dollar. They are selling dollars because YOU DO NOT FUND your enemy. We are headed into war. They know that. This is all geopolitical and those who just hate the dollar are going to get sucker punched because they are missing what is really going on here.
They have been buying gold NOT because they are bullish – but because they must sell US bonds for in times of war the US will just default on all bonds held by China. I think it is time to get your head out of the sand and open your eyes. This is not about dollars and gold. This is about preparing for World War III.
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