Douglas Macgregor – We have Russia All Wrong


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Dec 31, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Douglas Macgregor is a retired U.S. Army colonel and government official, and an author, consultant, and television commentator. He played a significant role on the battlefield in the 1990-91 Gulf War and the 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia.

There is No Defense to Hypersonic Missiles & Russia’s Plans to Expand


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Dec 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Russia announced yesterday that it will increase its military strength from 1 million to 1.5 million. The Western Press keeps putting out the propaganda that that this is all because Russia has lost momentum and many soldiers in Ukraine. I reported before that sources from Ukraine, not Russia, put the death toll at over 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers. That was also in the draft speech of the head of the EU, but it was removed to keep up the image that Ukraine is winning.

What is not being said here is that Poland has been instructed by the US to increase its military from 100,000 to 250,000 making it the largest force in NATO. It is only a 14-hour drive from Warsaw to Moscow. This in addition to NATO’s plans to incorporate Finland and Sweden, has also played a role in this decision.

The Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu declared that the country needs a force of 1.5 million “to guarantee the fulfillment of tasks to ensure Russia’s security.” China has about 2 million and the USA has about 1.4 million. North Korea has 1,280,000 active with another 600,000 in reserve. Belarus has an army of only 62,000 with 344,750 in reserve.

Currently in Russia, the regular draft, calls up 120,000 to 140,000 men twice a year for a one-year tour of compulsory service. What is becoming very obvious is that the West wants war. There is no desire for peace whatsoever. This has changed the game. The Western Press keeps just putting out propaganda about Ukraine winning, while it is ignoring the mobilization of NATO which is clearly anticipating war. This is not going to be just about Ukraine as we head into 2023. You have to be blind not to see that the West is clearly preparing for war. This is what Russia is now responding to. With Poland raising its army to 250,000, that presents a serious threat to Russia for the exceeds the active personnel in Belarus.

On top of all of this, Putin has wisely instructed that they should be studying how the weapons the US has been handing Ukraine and to regard these as valuable lessons to be learned during the fighting to modernize the armed forces. Thus, Ukraine has been an experiment to study the weapons systems of one’s opponent on both sides.

Putin also made it clear that Russia will start to deploy more hypersonic weapons, noting that the first warship equipped with state-of-the-art Zircon hypersonic missiles will be commissioned by the navy next month. There is no question that defense against Russia’s hypersonic weapons is not something that may be possible. Russia has been using some hypersonic missiles in Ukraine. It is believed among our sources that this may have been more to intimidate NATO and the United States. Obviously, the conventional wisdom has been that there is just no effective defense against hypersonic weapons. Hence, their use has been to intimidate the USA and NATO, but this does not seem to have succeeded.

The USA is exploring how to defend itself against hypersonic missiles. One theory is the exploration of “boundary layer phenomenology,” which is the idea that disrupting the airflow surrounding a hypersonic projectile may throw it off course. Disrupting the airflow may send it off course, but it will still hit something. The other hope is to deploy lower-flying networked satellites in an effort to establish a continuous targeting track of an approaching hypersonic weapon.

The reason there is no defense is that a hypersonic projectile will travel much too fast to track them because it will move from one radar aperture to another, making it virtually impossible to establish a consistent targeting track or lock.

Meanwhile, our brilliant world leaders are playing with everyone’s life all because they prefer war rather than reform whereby they might lose power.

Egg Prices Surge to Record Levels as Christmas Grocery Prices Hit Consumers


Posted originally on the CTH on December 22, 2022 | Sundance 

The price for a dozen eggs continues climbing as explanations turn toward blaming bird flu.  However, the avian influenza may explain a recent spike, but the longer duration of escalating food price commodities is much deeper than momentary fluctuations.  These are energy dependent products.

As CTH noted last year, watch egg prices as a general gauge for overall food inflation (eggs hit almost every process in the supply chain), and watch potato availability to gauge overall row crop stability (staple commodity on every plate, venue).

Additionally, as previously noted, as energy prices continue rising pay attention to the prices on ‘organic’ products.  Rising energy prices drive up costs for large commercially processed food supplies at a much higher rate than smaller organic production.  People are starting to notice the ‘organic’ option is almost at price parity.

Wall Street Journal – […] Wholesale prices of Midwest large eggs hit a record $5.36 a dozen in December, according to the research firm Urner Barry. Retail egg prices have increased more than any other supermarket item so far this year, climbing more than 30% from January to early December compared with the same period a year earlier, and outpacing overall food and beverage prices, according to the data firm Information Resources Inc.

For supermarkets, eggs are a staple product that most consumers pick up on trips to the grocery store, similar to milk and butter. To maintain store traffic, grocers said they have been sacrificing some profits on eggs to keep prices for consumers competitive. Some suppliers are projecting potential relief in price by February or March, but cold weather could hamper production in the near term, executives said.

[…] Grocery prices have continued to increase this year because of what companies have said are higher costs of labor, ingredients and logistics, helping supermarkets generate higher sales and profits. Those factors have propelled egg prices, too. As eggs get more costly, some supermarkets are selling more organic eggs that are sometimes less expensive than conventional varieties, while suppliers say consumer demand has remained steady despite higher prices. (read more)

Additionally, the overall price for a Christmas meal is much higher than it was in 2021.

(Via Fox) […] The holiday dinner grocery basket is estimated to cost an average of $60.29, according to data from Datasembly. That’s 16.4% higher than last year’s basket when comparing the same exact basket of goods. It’s also double the year-over-year increase reported last year at 8.2%, according to the retail data firm.

[…] The 13 products included stuffing mix, corn, green beans, frozen apple pie, whipped topping, butter, cranberry sauce, bone-in spiral-cut ham, egg nog, homestyle biscuits, russet potatoes, white frozen young turkey and homestyle roasted turkey gravy.

According to the data, biscuits had the highest price increase year-over-year, rising 47.7%. Butter and russet potatoes weren’t far behind with prices rising 38% and 32.6%, respectively, the data showed. (read more)

Keep in mind, this week you should be seeing competitive pricing on beef, specifically standing rib roasts.  Retailers will be competing with each other on the staple table items, and this creates an opportunity to buy and freeze beef at a lower price.

2023 will be a year when shopping smart will become increasingly important.  Prices are likely to continue rising; one thing is certain, as long as energy costs keep increasing, food prices will not drop.  Use the season(s) and holiday sales as opportunities to purchase specific items at lower prices; then store, freeze or can at home for use when the price of those same items is much higher.

Eggs at Christmas 2020 $1.79/doz.  -VS-  Eggs October 2022 $7.29/doz.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Arrives at White House to Coordinate Next Round of Payments


Posted originally on the CTH on December 21, 2022 | Sundance

There is nothing about the U.S. relationship with Ukraine, coordinated by the U.S. State Dept and Intelligence Community, that is anything other than pure propaganda being foisted on the American public.  Everything about this is theatrical, staged, presented and produced to script a narrative.

President Zelenskyy showing up in khaki pants looking like a UPS driver; not only disrespectful, but also part of the ‘schtick’ and uniform within the World War Reddit production.  Zelenskyy is in the U.S. to bang his tin cup for another $45 billion in support from U.S. taxpayers, and he’s almost guaranteed to get it.  WATCH:

.

White House occupier Joe Biden welcomes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, they will hold a meeting, likely a press conference and later an address Congress.  All theater, all staged, all scripted and produced…. and if you recognize this production for the manufactured fraud it represents, you are a Russian propagandist.  Sickening.

Our World Leaders are Just So Corrupt


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Dec 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

When someone ever writes about this period in a couple of hundred years, they will call it the Age of Corruption. An ex-MEP has labeled the EU as fundamentally corrupt. The head of the EU, Ursula von der Leyen, claims she cannot find any communications between here and Pfizer. We have world leaders who conspired to force the use of vaccinations that were never tested to any degree and have killed as well as maimed many. On top of all of this, they are INTENTIONALLY trying to create World War III so they have an excuse to default on their debts which they have had no intention of ever paying off. So why borrow every year if you never pay off the debt? Those they have killed or injured with mandatory vaccines, while they probably took water injections, and now trying to create a world war is all just unimaginable. All of this to hide (1) their corruption, and (2) to cover up their mismanagement of everything.

I have known heads of state. I never embraced Margaret Thatcher in such a manner. That embrace was an outright disrespect for the entire people of Europe. All of this for money.

Peru Uprising


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Dec 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The rise in inflation is causing riots around the world and people are also fed up with corrupt governments everywhere. As our model has been forecasting, the rise in civil unrest is the precursor to the collapse of governments. This is people chasing the military who was protesting the Peru Government. As in the Russian coup when Yeltsin stood on the tank and told the troops not to shoot their own people, once the troops backed down, the coup collapsed. It all depends on the military and whose side do they defend – the people or the corrupt politicians as they have done in Venezuela. Civil Unrest is what unfolds at times as Revolution.

Panic Cycle & the Deep State


Armstrong Economics Blog/Press Re-Posted Dec 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Once more I am asking:
In practical terms, when a Panic Cycle appears, which are the factors that will help us to determine if the movement will be up or down please?
Thank you for answering.
SM

QUESTION #2: Your Panic Cycle is remarkable and your forecast on Ukraine before 2014 warrants putting you on the front page of every newspaper. Do you think the fact that ________ goes out of its way to find people who will say what your model has and never refer to you as being part of the whole disinformation game? I tend to trust them less and less for never crediting your computer even once as part of the whole cancel culture. What is your view on this silence?

ANSWER: A Panic Cycle, more often than not, can be an outside reversal meaning it can penetrate the previous low, turn around, and penetrate the previous high. It can also be a huge move in one direction. They tend to be events that are a surprise typically engulfed in some news. It is hard to come up with the fundamentals well in advance. But the computer was picking up the 2008 crash as far back as 1999. I took this array from our old site off of the Wayback machine.

We published the computer forecast in 2013 that had pinpointed Ukraine as the place where World War III would begin. That was one year before the 2014 revolution. The ONLY people to call for an interview on that forecast was RT from Russia. That says a lot. No one social media site nor even one mainstream news outlet ever bothered to can to ask how could this computer do that.

It should be obvious as we move into a Panic Cycle. If a market is rising, be on guard and turn to the Weekly and Monthly levels to see if there will be a big crash or an abrupt breakout. Trying to explain that 2007-2009 would be a major crash was rather simple as you got closer.  The very day of the high in the ECM was the precise day of the high in the Shiller Real Estate Index.  The Panic Cycle Target of 2010.29 was the precise day that Greece applied for emergency loans from the IMF. It should have been obvious going into that from 2002 that it would have been a crash.

Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle can be an OUTSIDE REVERSAL meaning it can make a new low and high during the same timing interval. Here is Weekly gold. There the Panic Cycle for the week of 04/18/22 was a high as well as a big move in one direction. Note that the top Composite or aggregate was a turning point. This helped to define that it would be a high since the market was rallying into it. Take note that the Directional Change target for the Week of 05/16 produced the low also because it coincided with the target for a turning point on the top line. Note that the next Directional Change was 06/06/22 and that was the highest closing with the next week being an outside reversal to the downside.

Insofar as to why other sites refuse to report the success of Socrates or the mainstream press, a lot of people write in asking if the same site ignores our forecasts and will go out of their way to tout someone else are really part of the undercover proxy war of the government against the free press. I cannot confirm or deny that view, but indeed a lot of people write in question if they are the same thing that is now being exposed with the corruption at Twitter and the government-controlled Wikipedia. Some emails have pointed out that they jump on claiming this breakthrough in cold fusion, but refuse to report on how our computer has projected so many things years ahead of time and could save the world if you got rid of the corrupt politicians and deep state.

As I have explained, the Constitution is a NEGATIVE restraint upon exclusive government. This is how the government has been using social media and mainstream media to cancel people, and ignore others, doing what would be unconstitutional if the Deep State did it directly. So you may be right. If they go out of their way to find someone else, perhaps they too are getting their orders from Washington DC. Guess we need Musk to buy them out too.

The computer had targeted 2014 for the start of the war. This is me outlining that 3 years in advance at the 2011 World Economic Conference. Some people judge various sites and newspapers that constantly ignore reporting on any of these forecasts as really just part of the Deep State no matter what they pretend to be. After what Musk has exposed, you have to question any of them these days.

Swiss Joining the Force Against Russia


Armstrong Economics Blog/Switzerland Re-Posted Dec 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Just read your article on Poland building up a big army, just like Germany. Here in Switzerland they are also active and training their army as never before. …  I would very much appreciate your take on this issue and your view on Switzerland and the Swiss Franc in this scheme.

Thank you (and I have forwarded your articles to my friends and they have woken up).

AdK

REPLY: We have an awful lot of clients in Switzerland. Because we have a major Panic Cycle in 2025, war is clearly in motion for Europe. The Swiss franc looks like death warmed over, as they say. I will try to get out a special European report ASAP after the 1st of the year. Suffice it to say, a break of 99 can send the Swiss down to 65 in the years ahead. They have abandoned their neutrality in finance and war joining the sanctions against Russian individuals. That was a HUGE mistake on top of turning over everyone who relied on Swiss secrecy which began to protect the Jews from the Nazis in 1934.