IS TRUMP BEING INDICTED THIS WEEK? SO MANY HEADLINES! ECONOMY COLLAPSING SOON? MAJOR ICE STORMS HIT THE U.S. & MORE!


We Are in the COMPLEXITY & The Collapse of International Law


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Mar 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

We are in the middle of a convergence of so many crises it is hard to keep track. The SWAMP in Washington has always been out of control. There is even a bill being introduced to make it illegal for congressmen and their spouses or family members to be trading on inside information. It is titled: The Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments (PELOSI) Act. We go to prison for 20 years for what they do routinely. The Biden money payments from China will be the foundation of an impeachment proceeding. With all the Democrats did against Trump and are still at it, they have opened the door to what goes around comes around. Trump has announced the New York Democratic prosecutors are desperate to indict him in hopes of preventing him from running for President and that they will arrest him perhaps this coming week. Now the theory, since the taxes did not work, paying “hush” money to Stormy Daniels the porn star. When you have Biden taking money from China and Ukraine and everyone turns a blind eye, paying hush money to a porn star is far more important to the country?

The political nonsense that dominates a lot of boards of directors should be outlawed as fraud. The people on the board of SVB had ZERO experience in finance no less economic trends. All they do is pay mountains of cash to the Democrats and get put on boards for their political contacts. So many boards are stacked with political people, lawyers, or accountants, who have no experience in the financial markets or economic trends. If these people have ZERO experience in running a company, then they should be liable for their decisions.

We were called in by a major public company in Australia on a project to hedge their foreign exchange exposure. The quote we gave them was somewhere between $1 and $2 million back in the 1980s. They rejected it and said they would not pay more than the CEO was paid. They were clueless. I explained that we had dealing desks in Asia, the USA, and Europe and their book would have to be passed around the world 24 hours a day. They did not understand anything. They hired a 23-year-old kid to hedge their risk, he bought a Porsche and got into an accident, and while in the hospital they lost $80 million. Regulators then realized that directors should be held responsible for making decisions in things they had no experience.

We are headed into such COMPLEXITY it is off the charts. We have a convergence of so much going into April, it’s hard to say which fundamental will be the top dog. Between arresting Trump, and the revelations coming out about the Biden Crime Family, all of this contributes to the collapse in confidence in the government. Then Biden’s failure to understand the serious nature of this banking crisis and that it is the Biden Administration that is directly responsible for the crisis as it continues into April just added to the COMPLEXITY. Biden’s handling of SVB will now be seen as political since the phones were melting down from all the Democrats in California who stood to lose. Even Ophrah Winfrey had a ton of money in SVB. NBow the failure to stand behind all deposits everywhere will only make this look like a Democratic bailout.

Add to all of this, the ICC has shown that it too is politically corrupt and has been usurped by the Neocons. The ICC issued the bullshit criminal indictment of Putin orchestrated by the Neocons when in fact they have no such jurisdiction. The ICC has lost all credibility. ICC has jurisdiction ONLY over member states and that does not include the USA, China, or Russia. I reported that my sources on October 14th, 2022, were warning that the ICC was being politically manipulated not much different than the SWIFT monetary system. A team of lawyers in the UK filed a complaint with the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court on behalf of the people. The report alleges that government officials, and pharmaceutical executives, have conspired with COVID. They did nothing.

The ICC can ONLY prosecute member states. The United States refused to join the ICC so no American can ever be tried for a war crime. The same applies to Russia, yet the ICC is trying to politically indict Putin to create World War III. The ICC has lost all integrity no different than the New York Prosecutors going after Trump for anything they can possibly find. Next will be his parking tickets.

I had dinner with people from the ICC and they acknowledged that the United States used its legal system for political purposes. They were stunning in my case. They also said they would love to bring charges against the United States for they routinely violate international law and engage in torturing people – remember waterboarding and  Abu Ghraib.

In my case, I believe the banks told the CFTC to shut down our forecasting because they thought removing us would then allow them to manipulate markets. But they still blew up the world economy in 2007 and traders on the floor were calling it Armstrong’s Revenge. They never learn. They can bribe all the politicians, but that does not guarantee their trade. The CFTC refused to allow the forecasts to continue and insisted that all staff was to be fired worldwide. They rejected others offering to rent the Institute to keep it going. This was a FIRST AMENDMENT violation to shut down our forecasting to aid the corrupt banks.

The ICC told me at dinner that they would have loved to take my case, but since the US was not a member they could not bring charges against the US courts. That proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that this indictment of Putin is political and they have sold their soul to the Neocons. This was announced in hopes of threatening China with respect to their meeting with Russia to try to stop them from joining forces. The Neocons have now full control of the ICC and that prevents any peace negotiations going forward.

Then last November, the United Nations also surrendered its independence to the Neocons ensuring that we have no choice but to enter World War III. This is the agenda. The United Nations General Assembly has now adopted a resolution calling for Russia to pay war reparations for its invasion of Ukraine. This is to include the billions of dollars in damage and destruction, as well as reparations for the loss of life. The US refuses to provide any independent investigation into blowing up Nord Stream which was an act of international war. Instead, they attack the messenger. The UN simply wants to wash its hands in the blood of millions if not billions negative what it was entirely supposed to have been created for – world peace.

The world is now officially in control of the Neocons. Never in all my years did I ever expect looking at their long-range forecasts calling for a war that we would be the evil aggressors. We need the model to do its job here for we cannot even figure out on an opinion basis which fundamental will come out on top. We really desperately need members of Congress to recognize the real threat is within.

Interview with World Affairs Monthly


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Mar 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Click here to listen to my interview on 3/16/23 with World Affairs Monthly (also published on Monitoring Risk).

President Trump Says He Expects to Be Arrested Next Tuesday


In a Truth Social post earlier today [LINK HERE], President Donald Trump announced a leak from the Manhattan District Attorney’s office indicates he will be arrested next Tuesday.

[Source Link]

While there has been some attention to the “protest, take our nation back” element to the statement, in totality that reference point appears to be misinterpreted.  President Trump is not calling for a protest in response to his arrest per se’; to me, he appears to be calling upon “protest” in relation to the totality of the corrupt and manipulative state of our nation as a result of the radical leftists tearing our nation apart.

“THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.

Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.

What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods; and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as FREEDOM should not be highly rated.” 

~ Thomas Paine, The Crisis No. I (written 19 December 1776, published 23 December 1776)

We are engaged in a battle that is much larger than a modern political conflict.  Behind the lies, manipulations and schemes of the corrupt political class, there is a spiritual battle on a larger dynamic.  There is a spiritual war among all people. A conflict between light and dark, morality and corruption, right and wrong, truth and lies, decency and incivility.

The opposition arguments are weak and based on lies and deceptions.  Steel your resolve to the landscape that surrounds us, but do not let yourself become victim to dark imaginings.  There is protection around Donald John Trump that even he could never explain.

Steadfast in this conflict, we will not fail.

Posted originally on the CTH on March 18, 2023 | Sundance

MSNBC HOST USES THIS PATHETIC EXCUSE FOR GETTING COVID INFO SO WRONG | ROUNDTABLE | RUBIN REPORT


First published on BitChute at 21:11 UTC on March 17th, 2023.

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Interview: The World According to Martin Armstrong Part 3, The Rise of the Neocons


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Mar 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Summary:
Martin Armstrong joins us in this episode to give his perspective on what’s happening in the world—addressing topics like the war in Ukraine, gold, central bank currencies, cryptocurrency, and more. We discuss what’s in store for the war and whether there is an end in sight, noting the US’ tendency to get involved in endless wars with no strategic defense. Furthermore, Russell emphasizes that the market will eventually break to the upside, and that capital will move from the bond markets and into the private sector. Tune in to this episode for more expert insight. 

Press play on the audio player above or click here for my latest interview with Kerry Lutz: “The World According to Martin Armstrong Part 3, The Rise of the Neocons.”

Chairman Xi Heading to Russia Next Week For State Visit with President Putin – NATO, Ukraine and U.S. Going Bananas


Posted originally on the CTH on March 17, 2023 | Sundance 

U.S. government officials are not happy as China confirms Chairman Xi Jinping visit to Russia next week to meet with President Putin.

In the background of the Ukraine conflict, smiling Panda has been happy to see distracted western nations bleeding their resources and treasury in support of Ukraine.  Meanwhile, happy Panda negotiates and brokers increased relationships between Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, India and China.

There is no downside to Chairman Xi visiting Russia and advancing a position that ‘peaceful negotiations’ should begin between Russia and Ukraine, unless a resolution to the conflict is against the geopolitical usefulness of the war – which appears to be the unfortunate current status.

“The U.S. on Friday said it would oppose any effort by China at the meeting to propose a ceasefire in Ukraine“…

Think about that.  Remember, Ukraine is to Washington DC as North Korea is to Beijing.

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to visit Moscow next week, offering a major diplomatic boost to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the same day the International Criminal Court announced it wants to put the Russian leader on trial for alleged war crimes.

Xi’s visit was the latest sign of Beijing’s emboldened diplomatic ambitions, and came amid sharpening East-West tensions over the war in Ukraine, now in its 13th month.  The U.S. on Friday said it would oppose any effort by China at the meeting to propose a ceasefire in Ukraine as the “ratification of Russian conquest.”

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby encouraged Xi to reach out to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to get his country’s perspective on the war and avoid any “one-sided” proposals.

China has sought to project itself as neutral in the conflict, even while it has refused to condemn Moscow’s aggression and declared last year that it had a “no-limits” friendship with Russia. Beijing has denounced Western sanctions against Moscow, and accused NATO and the United States of provoking Putin’s military action.

Throughout the conflict, China has said the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected. It remains unclear, however, whether it sympathizes with Moscow’s claims to seized Ukrainian territory.

[…] Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday that Putin and Xi would have a one-on-one meeting over an informal dinner Monday. Broader talks involving officials from both countries on a range of subjects are scheduled for Tuesday.

Putin’s foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, suggested the talks could yield new approaches to the fighting in Ukraine. “I’m sure that our leader and the Chinese leader will exchange their assessments of the situation” there, he said. “We shall see what ideas will emerge after that.”  (read more)

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If You Can’t Beat Him, Indict Him – NBC Testing Water with Anonymous Source Report that New York Is Planning to Indict President Trump


Posted originally on the CTH on March 17, 2023 | Sundance

The pearl-clutching apoplexy is thick in the latest report from NBC claiming the Dept of Homeland Security, FBI and New York City officials are conducting preparation drills in anticipation of President Trump being indicted for…. wait for it – paying porn star Stormy Daniels.  Good grief, I mean they might as well have said the Pentagon is positioning satellites, NORAD is conducting drills and the National Guard has been put on alert… for something.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is investigating Trump for felony falsification of business records because President Trump paid his attorney, Michael Cohen, with business funds identified as ‘legal services’.

(Via NBC) – Local, state and federal law enforcement and security agencies are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump is indicted as early as next week, according to five senior officials familiar with the preparations. 

Law enforcement agencies are conducting preliminary security assessments, the officials said, and are discussing potential security plans in and around the Manhattan Criminal Court, at 100 Centre Street, in case Trump is charged in connection with an alleged hush money payment to Stormy Daniels and travels to New York to face any charges.

The officials stress that the interagency conversations and planning are precautionary in nature because no charges have been filed. 

The agencies involved include the NYPD, New York State Court Officers, the U.S. Secret Service, the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force, and the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office, the officials said.  NBC News has reached out to all of those agencies for comment, and all have declined to comment.  (read more)

Meanwhile, the real motive of the issue surfaces in the New York Times…

NEW YORK – […]  In surveys taken since the Trump offensive began two months ago, Mr. DeSantis, the Florida governor, has steadily lost ground against Mr. Trump, whose own numbers have increased.

It can be hard to track who’s up and who’s down in the Republican race, since different pollsters have had such wildly divergent takes on Mr. Trump’s strength. In just the last few days, a CNN/SSRS poll showed a tight race, with Mr. DeSantis at 39 percent and Mr. Trump at 37 percent among registered voters, while a Morning Consult poll found Mr. Trump with nearly a two-to-one lead, 52 percent to 28 percent.

Over the last two months, we’ve gotten about a dozen polls from pollsters who had surveyed the Republican race over the previous two months. These polls aren’t necessarily of high quality or representative, so don’t focus on the average across these polls. It’s the trend that’s important, and the trend is unequivocal: Every single one of these polls has shown Mr. DeSantis faring worse than before, and Mr. Trump faring better.

A Widening Gap Between Trump and DeSantis – Every recent poll has shown Mr. DeSantis faring worse than he did two months ago — around the time Mr. Trump began publicly attacking him.

Over the last two months, we’ve gotten about a dozen polls from pollsters who had surveyed the Republican race over the previous two months. These polls aren’t necessarily of high quality or representative, so don’t focus on the average across these polls. It’s the trend that’s important, and the trend is unequivocal: Every single one of these polls has shown Mr. DeSantis faring worse than before, and Mr. Trump faring better. (read more)

The professional political class have done everything they can to promote Ron DeSantis as the MAGA alternative to their arch nemesis Donald Trump.  However, the support for President Trump is only growing, and DeSantis keeps dropping.

The reason is simple.   People are realizing that everything in the Ron DeSantis orbit is managed, manipulated and controlled.  That system around him was constructed in late 2021 and he was always going to run for the 2024 GOP nomination.  That realization has become increasingly clear in the past few weeks and people do not like being lied to.

Ron DeSantis was the fake $100 bill on a fishing line being dragged through the MAGAhood.

That’s the bottom line.

The Old Guy in the Corner of the Room


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Mar 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, I hate to tell you but the reason you saw this coming was that you are old – like me. LOL. Do you realize that the 2007-2008 crisis was 16 years ago! Time flies, my friend. Most traders at these banks are under 35. That means that they have never seen anything like this and could not smell, taste, or see it coming. When we were youngsters, the old guy in the corner of the room would always say this is like 1929. Remember him? We are that guy today. I will buy you a Dewars when I get to Florida. The good news is we won’t have to endure this insanity much longer.

Cheers

ND

REPLY: I guess you are right. There has been a  cycle of events like this for centuries. Perhaps it requires a new generation of traders every 16 years or so who think they know everything. When I was advising Temple University’s portfolio and Merrill was trying to sell them the “new way” to make money by buying the long-term, selling the short-term, leveraging that to the moon and the spread would enhance your yield, the way to increase the yield on your portfolio. The chairman of Temple told them if I approved it the University would consider the proposal. I told them interest rates would rise and they would blow up. These two young kids selling this leverage deal told the University I was “too old” back in the 90s because I did not know the “new way” to make money. The chairman was older than me. The University told them to take a hike. On December 6th, 1994, Orange County California became the largest municipality in U.S. history ever to file for bankruptcy for they tried the “new way” to make money and blew up. That was in the courts for some time.

These people NEVER seem to ever understand when the trend will change especially in interest rates. They also position themselves based upon opinion and consensus but the consensus MUST be wrong for that is what flips the trend back and forth. Only fools invest money based on opinion and the consensus view and are quickly separated from their money. Without that loss, they never learn how how markets work and those that blame others are hopeless perpetual losers for they never learn anything.

Even Ben Franklin said during the Financial Crisis: “In this world nothing can be certain, except death and taxes.” He uttered those words because of the financial panics. in his day. There was the Panic of 1791 which was followed by a massive real estate bubble that then burst during the next Panic of 1792.

The Bank of North America had been the creation of Robert Morris (1734-1806) who got caught up in the whole real estate bubble. Morris had financed the American Revolution. He was a major patriot. Nevertheless, his bank went bust in the first Financial Panic over interest rates back then and he ended up in debtor’s prison thanks to the Panic of 1792. This is one of my favorite relics of the era.

So banks have been failing over interest rate swings for hundreds of years. They don’t teach this risk management in university and the current risk models do little but snooze over the real risks for they ignore cycles. We NEVER learn from the past because people find history irrelevant or boring. You are right, we are the old guys in the corner of the room compelled to watch others repeat history over and over again.

Financial Crisis of 2023


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Mar 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Marty, I think your warning about the collapse of leadership in government and the private sector rings true as Ken Griffin, the founder of hedge fund Citadel, said the rescue of Silicon Valley Bank shows the U.S. economic system is “breaking down before our eyes” because they bailed out the depositors. Yet Carl Icahn seems to agree with your saying that the U.S. economy is at a breaking point because of inflation. He said, “every hegemony has been destroyed by inflation.”

Very few so-called billionaires seem to understand what’s at stake. It makes me think they were just lucky in how they made their money. After Griffin’s comment, I would not be inclined to invest in Citadel. Then a group of banks is talking about depositing $20 to $30 billion to save Republic bank.

Is there any hope for the future when leadership is absent in these times of chaos?

UT

QUESTION #2: Thanks for everything you do. At the WEC, you warned about banks and even the big funds. The turning point was at the end of January here in 2023. Is it possible that this financial crisis will be the major factor even overpowering war when the ECM comes into play by April 10th?

CW

ANSWER: Anyone who does not understand that inflation is a natural occurrence when you get into a war is clearly not a student of history and has no business being the CEO of even the head local dog-catcher. The Roman deity Janus, after whom January is named, was the two face entity who looked at the past and the future. The doors to his temple would be closed when there was peace. That symbolized that nothing was at risk of changing. However, in times of war,  they would leave the doors open to symbolize the uncertainty of war that the spirits could flow in and out.

Only today, do we seem to no longer respect that the cost of war is both lives lost and inflation for those who survive. This Ukrainian Proxy War serves no purpose. Winning or losing will have ZERO impact on our national security or the future of the people. This is simply a grudge match instigated by the Neocons who perpetually love war as long as someone else is dying for their personal goals. To them, it is nothing more than watching a war on CNN and cheering as if it were a football game.

I have said that this war will undermine the entire US economy and that is now manifesting in the Financial Crisis of 2023 which will be far worse than any of these people expect. The lack of experience and the stupidity of those who remark that capitalism is collapsing because they are honoring the depositors is absurd. A depositor has NO WAY of understanding the financial status of a bank until it is too late. They receive no warning and yet there are those who say they should suffer the losses because that is capitalism.

Sorry, but that has NOTHING to do with capitalism. It is no different than FRAUD soliciting money with a false pretense. Investing in a hedge fund like Citadel is different from a bank. Depositors in a hedge fund know they are investing their money and they are getting a piece of that return. That is capitalism. Someone who has a bank account where their social security check is automatically deposited took on no such risk. Sorry – that is different that a hedge fund that goes bust.

The problem we have is that the ECM turning point is April 10th. Yet it is also the Pi Target from the fall of the USSR and the birth of even Ukraine. We just had Poland losing their mind and sending jets to Ukraine. That makes Poland a viable target for war. Poland is irresponsible given the fact that the Ukrainians slaughtered over 300,000 of them and has refused to ever apologize for their WWII Nazi involvement.

We have a problem here with the Financial Crisis simultaneously with important cyclical targets regarding war. Any personal interpretation I can offer is just a personal opinion. Both trends are colliding into April and this may be a two-prong panic of unprecedented significance.