COMMENT: Well, the goldbugs are wrong again. This claim that the stock market must crash and only gold will rise is as you say sophistry. It looks like gold and the Dow are rallying together. I can see how they are just promoting a cult-like agenda.
Thanks for being objective
MH
REPLY: We became the biggest institutional adviser because there was never an agenda. Everything goes up, and everything comes down. There is an old saying among actual traders – NEVER marry the trade. I buy gold personally. I just bought a hoard of $20 gold pieces all uncirculated and all dated 1924. I do not regard it as a trade, just a stash for the long-term. It will go up and go down. Do not pretend that something only goes in one direction.
Here is a chart from Socrates on the Quarterly Level of the Dow/Gold Ratio. Anyone who only forecasts a single direction is NOT an analyst – they are a promoter like a used car salesman. No matter what we look at, there is a time to buy and a time to sell. EVERY market functions that was.
Here is an advertisement from April 9th, 1930 pitching Bank Stocks. Brokers were telling people to buy all the way down, average in, but it took 26 years for the Dow to reach the 1929 high again. Anyone selling any product will ALWAYS tell you to BUY. That is their business. It is up to you to come to terms with how ALL markets really move. Hence, there is always a TIME TO BUY just as there is a TIME TO SELL.
It provided the government with an opportunity to eliminate our energy independence. We did not have an energy crisis before Joe Biden took office. He killed the Keystone deal on his very first day in office and has been promoting the larger WEF Build Back Better plan at the expense of the nation. Biden implemented policies that worsened inflation and then convinced mindless politicians, who never read the large bills put forward, to vote for a $369 billion act under the premise of fixing a problem he created.
Now Joe Manchin, who brokered the deal with Biden, claims he was duped into believing the act was actually designed to reduce inflation. In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal, Manchin criticized the need to raise the debt ceiling as a “needless emergency.” Manchin wrote:
“America is fast approaching another needless emergency—the raising of the national debt ceiling. This impending crisis isn’t an accident but a result of the inaction of various actors who refuse to confront fiscal reality, sit down, negotiate and make hard decisions for the sake of our nation’s future. While all parties have a responsibility to negotiate in good faith, recent actions make clear to me that the Biden administration is determined to pursue an ideological agenda rather than confront the clear and present danger that debts and deficits pose to our nation.”
He goes on to state that the national debt is nearly $31.5 trillion, “or close to $95,000 for every man, woman, and child, and represents 120% of our gross domestic product.” He proposes negotiating the debt ceiling and is pleading with “Mr. Biden to instruct his administration to implement the Inflation Reduction Act as written and stop redefining its credits and other subsidies.”
The Senator from West Virginia stated that Americans will pay the price for generations if Biden fails to act, but Yellen has now admitted that the goal of the IRA has been achieved. As Trump said, if you put the worst five presidents in American history together, they’ve done less damage to the nation than Biden in under three years.
In 2010, Barron’s wrote a piece on me effectively laughing at my forecast that the share market would rally to new highs. What seems to inevitably unfold is this notion that whatever the event might be in motion, the mere thought of a reversal in trend appears impossible. When the press disagrees with Socrates, I know it will be the press who is wrong. And because they end up being wrong, of course, they cannot print a retraction so they will just pretend you do not exist rather than admit – Sorry, we were wrong. The Dow made that new high above 2007 by February 2013. That was 64 months from the October 2007 high.
I have been in the game for many years. With each event, it appears to be like Groundhog Day. They pop their heads out and declare they do not see their shadow, so the entire world will disintegrate and that is always based upon opinion. It is never backed by real analysis. Just the standard human trait of assuming whatever trend is in motion, will remain in motion.
Being an institutional adviser, I have never had that luxury. We have had to deal with some of the biggest portfolios in the world. They want accurate forecasting, and it has to be long-term – not day trading. They are not interested in the typical headlines of doom and gloom that the press love to print with every financial event simply to get readership. That is all they care about. It has been the financial version of the fake news.
When we step back and look at this favorite fundamental that people beat to death to predict the end of the world, the national debt, and the collapse of the dollar. Little did they know that the increase in National Debt during the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis was supposed to bring down the sky and end the existence of the dollar. We can see the sharp rise in debt simply made a double top with the Financial Crisis of 1985.
It was that previous 1985 Financial Crisis that set in motion the Plaza Accord which brought together the central banks creating what was then the G5 – now G20. Of course, like every government intervention, the side effect was the 1987 Crash and their attempt to reverse their directive at the Plaza Accord became the Louve Accord. When the traders saw that failed, the collapse in confidence led to the 1987 Crash.
It has always been a CONFIDENCE game as I pointed out with the 1933 Banking Holiday previously. In this case, the failure of the Louvre Accord which came out and said the dollar had fallen enough, once new lows in the dollar unfolded and the central banks could not stop the decline, led to financial panic by 1987 which manifested in the 1987 Crash.
This chart shows the quarterly change in the National Debt since 1966, Here you can see the 1985 and 2008 Financial Crises were on par. Neither one ended the dollar no less the world economy. So when I warned the share market would rally and make new highs and Barron’s laughed in 2010, I said the same thing after the 1987 Crash and people laughed.
In fact, on the very day of the low, I said this was it and that we would rally back to new highs by 1989. That was perfect and the market responded to the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) which has been published back in 1979. This was more than simply forecasting the 1987 Crash and the very day of the low. It clearly established that the ECM had revealed that there was a secret cycle behind the appearance of chaos even in economics.
Larry Edelson was actually a competitor at the time. But Larry respected that the forecast from the model was far beyond what people would ever expect. If we are ever going to advance as a society, we have to stop the bullshit and understand HOW markets trade and WHY. Larry did that. He understood that the model was something larger than just personal opinion.
Even those claiming to be using the K-Wave cannot make real forecasts. The basis of Kondratieff’s argument came from his empirical study of the economic performance of the USA, England, France, and Germany between 1790 and 1920. Kondratieff took the wholesale price levels, interest rates, and production and consumption of coal, pig iron, and lead for each economy. He then sought to smooth the data using an averaging mathematical approach of nine years to eliminate the trend as well as shorter waves. Kondratieff thus arrived at his long-wave theory suggesting that the economic process was a process of continuous waves of boom and bust.
Kondratieff’s work was compelling and contributed greatly to the Austrian School of Economics that first began to develop the concept of a Business Cycle. The general central principle of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory is concerned with a period of sustained low-interest rates and excessive credit creation resulting in a volatile and unstable imbalance between saving and investment. Within this context, the theory supposes that the Business Cycle unfolds whereby low rates of interest tend to stimulate borrowing from the banking sector and thus then result in the expansion of the money supply that causes an unsustainable credit source boom which leads to a diminished opportunity for investment by competition.
Here is a chart of the business cycle that was created by a farmer named Samuel Benner. Benner based his work on Sunspots, which actually incorporated solar maximum and minimum that today’s Climate Change zealots refuse to consider. Nevertheless, someone manipulated Brenner’s work and created a chart to try to influence society handing it in with a wild story to the Wall Street Journal published this cycle on February 2nd, 1932, when the market bottomed in July 1932. Still, nobody knew who had investigated this phenomenon in 1932.
When I was doing my own research reading all the newspapers to understand how events unfolded, I came across this chart. I found it interesting that during the Great Depression people were reaching out and some began to embrace cyclical ideas. The problem with both Kondratiff and Brenner was that the period they used to develop their cycles was the 19th century because the real Industrial Revolution was unfolding and in the 1850s, 70% of the civil workforce were all in agriculture. Consequently, if you constructed a model based entirely upon one sector, it would work only as long as that sector was the top dog.
Being a historian buff, it quickly hit me that NOTHING remains constant and that the economy will ALWAYS evolve, mature, and then crash and burn. Where agriculture was 70% of the workforce in 18590, it fell to 40% by 1900, and then down to 3% by 1980.
Just look at energy. The earliest lamps, dating to the Upper Paleolithic, were stones with depressions in which animal fats were burned as a source of light. In cultures closer to the sea, they began to use shells as lamps which they would burn at first animal fat. Clay lamps began to appear during the Bronze Age around the 16th century BC and the invention quickly spread throughout the Roman Empire. Initially, they took the form of a saucer with a floating wick.
We even find Roman oil lamps as luxury items crafted out of bronze. There are collectors of terracotta oil lamps for there is a vast variety of motifs. There is everything from dolphins, and various entities, to erotic oil lamps, which may have been used in brothels. The point is, if you constructed a model on oil, you would have surely accomplished similar results to Kondratief and Brenner.
Then of course, just as the energy moved from animal fats to vegetable oils, by the 19th century it returned to whale oil which was extracted from the blubber. Emerging industrial societies used whale oil in oil lamps and to make soap. However, during the 20th century, whale oil was even made into margarine.
Then the discovery of petroleum and the use of whale oils declined considerably from their peak in the 19th century into the 20th century. Ironically, it was fossil fuels that probably saved whales from extinction. Hence, now we are entering a period where they deliberately want to end fossil fuels and move to solar and wind power. Obviously, just a cursory review of energy reveals the problem of basing a model on the current energy source or major economic industry. Things change with time.
Honest journalism has become a crime. I have appeared numerous times on Maria Zaric’s program, Zeee Media. Maria is a professional journalist who asks thought-provoking questions to the experts that appear on her show. Her content goes against the grain and traditional narrative. The Australian-based journalist has been questioning COVID, the Great Reset, governments, globalists, the war in Ukraine, and many other topics that are completely taboo in the mainstream media. They attempted to shut down her channel in the past. Now, she has been de-banked with no explanation.
“Do you shut down peoples accounts due to their political views by any chance?” Maria asked the bank representative, only to be met with silence. Maria had been banking with ING Bank for numerous years without issues. Her account was suddenly shut down shortly after releasing a story on domestic terrorism in Australia. ING Bank has been unable to explain why her account was canceled.
Interestingly, ING is a partner of the World Economic Forum. Maria has extensively covered the WEF’s agenda to “enslave humanity.” Is Australia secretly keeping track of journalists’ “social credit scores” to silence skepticism?
The idea of eliminating someone’s ability to bank is essentially eliminating them from society. We saw Canadado the same thing to those protesting the Trucker Convoy. Trudeau took things a step further by also de-banking people who simply donated to the cause. The Canadian government used the premise of money laundering as a way to coerce the banks into reporting any activity that could have been intended to help the protestors. I know of numerous people who were frantically attempting to remove their funds from the bank during this time.
As if the public needed more reasons to lose trust in the banking system. This is not limited to one bank or country. I discussed how banks have the ability to “cancel” someone after JPMorgan Chase de-banked the rapper Kanye West for antisemitic remarks. The bank acts as the jury and judge. Epstein was permitted to hold funds at JPMorgan Chase despite an ongoing pedophile ring trial. Bernie Madoff banked with JPMorgan Chase. The bank has secret ties to the Third Reich and helped the group funnel money through South America during World War II. Again, the bank acts as the jury and judge; anyone can be de-banked anytime for any reason.
Most countries may not openly have social credit scores, but they’re keeping tabs on us. They are keenly aware that resistance to this New World Order is building. So they are now using professional journalists as examples hoping that people will stop asking questions to learn the truth. That is one of the reasons why this blog is free of charge – you deserve to know the truth.
Posted originally on the CTH on March 19, 2023 | Sundance
This is rather remarkable and tells us something about the current status of the “western” financial system. The last sentence in today’s announcement from the FED is particularly laughable. Check this out [Source]:
That last sentence is nonsense. When was the last time the ‘central banks’ worried about the supply of credit to households and businesses? Total and complete nonsense. What they are worried about is the need to have readily available dollars, faster, to backstop banks that are supposed to beholding deposits.
Nothing quite inspires ‘global banking confidence’ like the need to swap dollars rapidly, from country to country on a daily basis, because the amount of currency in bank, within any western nation, at any given time, might disappear.
Yesterday’s monologue from Neil Oliver, and the recent personal banking story that structures his comments, is standing as eerily prescient right now. SEE BELOW:
“This just in. Everything is fine… the liquidity of the Western banking system has never been stronger”… “Look over there folks, Trump indictment, nothing to see here folks… move along now”…
In an interview on May 11, 2014, I explained on USAWatchdog that confidence always outweighs reality. “It’s basically what you believe. There have been all sorts of studies on fundamentals that say if interest rates go up, stocks go down. It is simply not true. The stock market has never peaked with interest rates twice in history. If you think you are going to make 25% in the market, you’ll pay 10% interest; but if you really think the market is only going to go up 10%, you won’t pay 10%. So, it’s always the difference between what you believe and reality.”
The people have lost all confidence in government. We have heard rumors of a “soft landing” from the Fed for the past year, but the situation continues to worsen. Washington maintains that everything is stable as banks continue to fail and inflation rages on. There can be no price stability when war is at play. Biden just released his latest budget plan that no reasonable person would condone. I explained in 2014 that great empires all come crashing down after piling on massive debt. People believe hyperinflation would cause such a scenario, but debt is the major player. Once the government accumulates enormous debt, it targets its citizens aggressively. That is what we are seeing today.
So where should you put your money? I said in 2014: “One of the number one questions I get all the time is where do I put my money? If the banks can just take whatever they want now, there will be bail-ins rather than bail-outs. People are afraid. What do you do with the cash? So, people are buying things like real estate and stocks, just trying to get money out of the banking system.” That sentiment is continuing and the latest CPI report even showed that shelter costs are rising at the highest rate since June 1982. Smart money has been trying to escape the banks for years. There was no incentive until very recently to park money in the banks due to artificially low rates.
I also explained that the Fed would only bail out deposits and had been asking institutions to change their models. “Everybody knows I advise some of the big institutions around, and I can tell you that they have told me directly that the Fed went to them and told them they will not be bailed out for proprietary trading. It will be only on deposits. That’s it,” I stated. “The Fed has been going around telling them, ‘hey, you better change your models.’ They don’t think it will be a flight to quality as it was before. You buy the long term (Treasuries) and that saves you. They don’t think that’s going to happen. It’s quite interesting. . . . It looks like the long term (Treasury bonds) is going to end up starting to rise.”
Sound familiar to the current situation? People have moved from the public sector into the private sector. We are well into a private wave, and the public will not go back to the public sector for many years to come.
A bank failure of this proportion has not been seen since 2008 when Washington Mutual failed. The majority of deposits in Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) are uninsured, meaning the FDIC’s $250,000 protection does not apply. Uninsured depositors will be provided receivership certificates and should receive an advanced dividend this week. The FDIC must sell off the remaining assets of SVC to determine how much it can provide to those uninsured depositors. The FDIC is encouraging borrowers to continue paying their existing loans. The bank was said to host $209 billion in assets and $175.4 billion in deposits as of December 2022. Washington Mutual held around $307 billion in assets when it went down.
Tons of people and businesses will be completely screwed over. Who could have seen it coming? Silicon Valley Bank CEO, CFO, and CMO sold off millions in stock over the past two weeks. President and CEO Greg Becker sold 12,451 shares on February 27 for $3.6 million at $287.42 per share. Later that day, he purchased options for the same amount of shares at $105.18 a piece. He did the same thing in December 2021, as this is not an uncommon albeit unethical practice. Banks commonly trade against their own clients. Becker sold about $3.57 million worth of SVB stock over the past two weeks and is now making TV appearances saying he did not see this coming.
There were signs of trouble, but the talking heads said otherwise. Forbes even listed SVB Financial Group as #20 on its list of America’s Best Banks in an article published on February 14, 2023. Talking/screaming head Jim Cramer came out last month to say that SVB Financial would become one of the top performers on the S&P. This is why you cannot listen to information based on biased opinions. I hesitate to call this negligence technical analysis.
Companies are now at a complete loss, many cannot make payroll, and this situation will only worsen once the uninsured depositors realize their IOUs are worthless.
COMMENT: Marty; Two former Merrill Lynch traders were each sentenced to a year and a day in prison Thursday for manipulating the precious metals markets, the US Department of Justice announced. Of course, —- —–, which is forever bullish metals, claims they moved the metals in the “direction they wanted from 2008 to 2014.” It just seems that people claim it is always manipulation when they have been wrong. They only look at gold in dollars as you have said it’s a global market. They would have to manipulate all the currencies as well.
This latest affair of so-called manipulating trades during the day proves what you have been saying. They have always been gunning for stops during the day, but they cannot manipulate the trend between a bull or bear market. Do you think people will ever understand this is a global economy?
HD
ANSWER: I know. Unless people have actually been a trader, they will never understand the market. They will blame people like this to pretend they were not wrong. The problem is that this nonsense of manipulation is driving a stake through the heart of the market. Trading is like a poker game. Do you reveal your hand before everyone starts to bet? Sometimes you bluff, but the point is if you are bluffing, you have to stand behind your bet.
The mere fact that someone is blaming this type of “manipulation” for being the reason they have been wrong demonstrates that they know nothing about investing no less trading. The DOJ is now big on calling placing large “spoof” orders as manipulation. That is absurd and it is no more than bluffing in a poker game. This is the way all the markets have always functioned. Everyone would know where the stops were anyway. Sometimes they traded ahead of them using the stops as your risk point to exit the trade, and other times they would sell or buy to push the market through the stops when it was obvious that was even possible.
When I was trading in precious metals back in the ’90s, the biggest “local” dealer on the floor was Oni Morrison. He would do “spoof” orders all the time which I called “flash” bids or offers. The difference was he was good for it if hit. I was long one time in gold and I wanted out for the computer projected a crash was coming. But if you offer a thousand lots and the market was heading lower, everyone will read that and jump in front of you. That is how the Hunts went bankrupt. The Hunts did not know how to trade. Just as in poker, you cannot show your hand and expect to trade.
Oni would do “flash” bids or offers. I told my broker not to offer anything. I told him just to watch Oni and as soon as he would do a 1,000 flash to buy – say done! Sure enough, Oni was trying to push the market back up and he did one of his famous flash bids for 1,000 lots. My broker, Emerald Trading, instantly said “DONE!” Oni did it again, and they said “DONE!” Again he did a fash for 1,000 and again they said “DONE!” That was it. Oni was full and everyone began selling as the metals tumbled.
That is the way you have to trade SIZE. This is the very foundation of trading all markets for everything is just a poker game. To now call a “spoof” trade manipulation is just wrong. It is totally different when you do not have the backing. Now that would be a fraud and trying to manipulate the market for that moment – not changing the overall trend. But when you have the backing to honor your “spoof” it is just a “flash” bid or offer that you must stand behind when hit. That is just trading.
It is total BS to pretend that these guys manipulated the entire market. That is just absurd. Not even the central bank can manipulate the economy. You cannot “manipulate” a market against the trend for everything is connected. That caused the Panic of 1893 when the Silver Democrats overpriced silver. The Europeans hit the arbitrage and dumped silver in the US and took the gold back to Europe. That led J.P. Morgan to have to arrange a $100 million gold loan to bail out the treasury. That alone proved that you CANNOT manipulate ANY market against its trend for it will be arbitraged internationally – plain & simple.
Gold trading around the world in different exchanges is arbitraged. You cannot have gold $20 high in one market v another. It will be arbitraged instantly. Those who claim this as “proof” that the metals have been manipulated so that is why they have not rallied and why they have been wrong are fools who have been separated from the money. They will never understand the markets no less be able to see beyond the end of their nose. It will be instantly arbitraged.
The collapse of the Soloman Brothers was precisely that. They were putting in bids at the Treasury Auction using other people’s names to goose the market. They got caught and the firm was taken down. I know PhiBro from the ’70s and ’80s. They took over Solomon Brothers and brought that style of trading from the commodity pits to Wall Street.
This excuse by goldbugs that the metals were actually “manipulated” in their long-term trend, shows their hopeless ignorance of the markets and how they even trade. There is NOBODY who could possibly do such a thing for everything connected. As soon as the dollar would rise, the metals in terms of foreign currency would be so overvalued they would all sell and they will end up broke the same as the Silver Democrats bankrupted the country by overvaluing silver.
Trading internationally, with clients in all currencies, we have to look at each market in terms of their currency for that will determine if they made a profit or loss. Anyone who claims the metals have been manipulated and that is why they have not rallied is obviously oblivious to the world around them.
Gold does NOT rise with inflation – that is the sales pitch of a used car salesman. Gold rises in times of UNCERTAINTY with respect to the government. In times of war, it rises because it is NEUTRAL and you are not betting on who will win.
All we hear is that the debt is rising and therefore gold will explode. Once again, they offer no proof of their sophistry because there is no such proof. Gold declined for 19 years while the national debt climbed endlessly.
Then there is the myth about interest rates and gold that higher rates are bearish and lower rates are bullish. Well, interest rates peaked in 1981 and declined in 1994 before they began to rise marginally into 1995. Yet then contrast that myth with the performance of the dollar. There the greenback rose to a record high in 1985 but then declined for 10 years into 1995 all the while gold declined into 1999.
OK, so now let’s look at gold between 1980 and 200 in terms of Swiss francs and British pounds. We can instantly see that gold bottomed in 1985 in terms of the Swiss franc. In terms of British pounds, gold did not bottom until 1999.
People come up with theories all the time. However, they always try to reduce everything to a single cause and effect. They are doing that with climate change. They are telling the world it is CO2 that has changed the climate without ever addressing anything else.
The world we live in is not only complex, but it is also so dynamic it appears that no human can correctly forecast the future with an “I think” scenario. Sometimes they will be right, and others they will be wrong. Typically, they fail because they try to reduce the world to a single cause and effect.
Gold Rises with UNCERTAINTY with respect to the question of will the government survive its own madness.
The Biden Administration is responding to the panic phone calls that their Marxist philosophy will bring down the entire financial system. My ear is red as can be. I have had enough of the phone calls today to last the balance of the month. Trying just to do the right thing! Three banks have effectively gone down in the week of March 6th, which our computer was targeting. There have been Silicon Vally Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergat Bank.
The Regulators perhaps saw the handwriting on the wall. This NO BAILOUT claiming that no taxpayer money will be used for a bailout of their hated rich, how about just using the taxpayer’s money you are throwing down the train in Ukraine? Depositors in Signature and SVB they are now saying would be made whole. If they do not cover ALL deposits, the monumental banking failure will be catastrophic.
Our forecast for a Banking Crisis is by NO MEANS confined to the United States. It will be far worse in Europe. We can see our computer not only targeted 2023 for a key turning point with a Directional Change but a Panic Cycle next year in bank stocks, but interest rates will be rising higher as also the risk of banks and governments escalated especially when they insist on waging war against Russia.
The yield curve is critical and we must understand that this insane war against Russia, even economically, will be a major financial disaster not much different from Vietnam which brought down Bretton Woods and forced Nixon to close the gold window on August 15th, 1971. It was that unrestrained spending directed by the Neocons. Then too, it was all about Russia they assumed was behind Vietnam.
Once more, the reckless spending on war promoted by the Neocons is undermining the entire economy. They have lost every war they have promoted – Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, proposed Syria, Libya regime change, and now Ukraine. These people are never held accountable for all the devastation and the lives lost.
War is the primary driver of inflation and the central banks will not even address it for they do not want to “criticize” the Neocons. They might wake up with their dog’s head in the bed as in the Godfather. The central banks will NOT be able to contain this inflation or ever reach their 2% target regardless if the economy turns down just as what happened during Vietnam.
This is a warning to all small banks. Understand the REAL trend or you will NOT survive. Major capital is fleeing the long-term and rising into the short-term because they see rates are rising and any long-term bond investment during a period of war is going to be a major losing trade. Do not get trapped by the yield curve and understand that this trend is in play into 2025.
This Banking Crisis has been caused by Governments who artificially kept interest rates too low since 2008 and in the process, this banking crisis is unfolding because too many banks are UNSOPHISTICATED in forecasting and have been listening to the talking heads on TV and the desperate hope that inflation will decline while ignoring Ukraine entirely. Get that wrong – and you will NOT survive.
I strongly urge small banks to take our business services for access to real forecasting that is not biased or tarnished by human opinion with the two most dangerous words in forecasting:
Posted originally on the CTH on February 3, 2023 | Sundance
Not only does the buck not stop with Biden, the installed occupant of the White House refuses to admit the buck even started with him. It did!
During remarks to the press today, even Brian Deese looked stunned as Joe Biden incredulously claimed he didn’t cause the rampant inflation that is crushing middle class Americans. Oh, he started it alright…. He not only started it, but he also created it.
The combination of the January 2021 immediate move to block any domestic energy development, in combination with the April 2021 unneeded explosion of deficit spending triggered both a supply side and demand side inflationary impact; with the former continuing to put massive upward pressure on prices still. WATCH:
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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