UDSA Raises Food Price Forecast to Highest Level in 42 Years, Third Wave of U.S. Food Inflation Will Dwarf Prior Price Increases


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 27, 2022 | Sundance 

Have you ever seen egg prices at $1 per egg range, or $12/doz?  Hold on a few months and perhaps you will.  That is the context for the scale of food price increases the USDA is now starting to predict.  The highest predicted change in food costs in well over 40 years, that’s the USDA warning in their revised May “Food Price Outlook”. [DATA HERE]

This month the USDA just re-re-revised the forward price outlook, and things are grim.  It likely doesn’t come as a surprise to many CTH readers because we have been discussing the convergence of events since October of 2021, when we first were able to predict Wave-1 (Dec/Jan), and Wave-2 (March/Apr) inflation.  However, the underlying data for Wave-3 is double the prior two phases.

Keep in mind the data is national & skewed toward low estimations as represented by (+).

When the USDA predicts egg prices increasing by 19.5 to 20.5% (from where those prices are now), there will be regions with much higher retail increases than estimated.

Just two months ago, USDA had egg inflation at 2.5%-3.5% range, year over year.  Again, that’s the scale of change; from a 3.5% forward outlook to a 20.5% forward outlook effective right now.

Food at home (grocery store) prices: up 7% to 8% in this monthly review, versus the April outlook of a rise of 5% to 6%. That means the USDA is predicting the highest grocery store price rise since 1980 when prices rose 8.1% (prices rose 7.2% in 1981).  There is no reason to think the USDA forecast will not rise again in June.

[Click graphic to expand – Data Set Here]

If you have not taken food price stability seriously before now, please take proactive measures to secure your family.   We are talking about future retail food prices that were simply unfathomable last year.

You know how much prices at the supermarket have increased in the last six months.  Double that, and there’s your estimation for food prices later this fall.

Behind all the datasets, statistics, BEA, BLS, USDA and analysis of these things, there are real people living paycheck-to-paycheck that are likely to be in serious food insecurity position for the first time in their lives.

I’m not talking about poor people, I’m talking about solid upper middle-class working families with kids who are already being hit hard by gasoline, energy, housing and grocery store increases.  Another twenty percent increase in food costs can easily become a crisis.

The core issue is this snowball of production costs inside the field to fork supply chain.  Diesel prices, fertilizer prices, energy prices, seed and feed prices, all of it has doubled and tripled in less than a year.

Add in transportation and distribution costs that have doubled, and all of that cumulative impact is going to flow through the food supply chain from the field to the processor (wholesaler), and into the supermarket.   Fresh foods, especially in the produce section, will catch many people off guard.

Not all news associated with this is bad news.  As you read this you have information that allows you to take control and be proactive.  YOU will not be part of the national population that is stunned in September and October.  YOU know what is coming.  With that in mind, do what you can today, tomorrow, this week, to be proactive and offset the impact.  Taking action reduces stress.

Perhaps shop proactively for your holiday shelf stable food items now.  Look at the circulars and on-line for coupons, not for then – but for use now.  Perhaps learn to make some of the foods you would normally purchase already prepared.  Small proactive seeds, kept in mind while carrying on day-to-day life.

I know from reading comments that many of you have planted ‘victory gardens’ this year.  Those harvests are worth 50% more now they were three months ago.  That’s the way to look at it.  Every amount of saving matters…. and yes, grandma carefully washed the aluminum foil and reused it for a reason.

The Incredible Transition


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted May 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

According to politicians around the world, the Great Unwashed plebians should be grateful for the energy crisis. President Joe Biden recently declared that America is undergoing an “incredible transition” and we must suffer in order to reap the benefits. “Here’s the situation. And when it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels when this is over,” Biden said.

I have explained that the Biden Administration deliberately ruined America’s ability to be energy independent. Biden sparked the energy crisis on his first day in office when he canceled the Keystone XL pipeline and removed various gas permits. The keyword in Biden’s statement is “when,” as no one knows when this transition will take place as there are NO viable large-scale alternatives to oil.

“It’s Incredible for you!” Senator Ted Cruz clarified, “You fly a damn 747 where the taxpayers pay for your jet fuel. What Joe Biden is saying is, if you at home, if you drive a pickup truck, ‘to hell with you; you can’t drive your pickup truck. If you have a Suburban, you’ve got to get rid of that. We’re all getting Toyota Priuses.’”

Biden had the audacity to claim he kept the energy crisis “from getting worse – and it’s bad.” This comes as the nationwide gas average reaches $4.59, but it has surpassed $8.00 in many locations. You will own nothing, not even an electric vehicle, and be happy. Realize that the “pain at the pump” is a deliberate attempt to push the Great Reset and climate change agendas.

The Ukrainian Solution: Money, Weapons, and Embargo


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted May 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Kremlin has made it known that they will not evacuate troops from Ukraine until their victory is declared. “We are sure that everything will be fine, and we are sure that we will win, we will achieve all the goals,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Russia has already downgraded “unfriendly states” to “hostile states” as Western countries are now directly involved. “Sometimes it seems that the very existence of Russia is a significant irritant for the collective West, and they are ready to do anything to prevent us from developing and living the way we want,” Peskov stated.

Kissinger suggested that Ukraine surrender some of its territories to Russia, as it is land that is composed of mostly Russian-speaking individuals who have not been allowed to vote on whether they’d like to remain under Ukrainian rule. “Negotiations need to begin in the next two months before it creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome. Ideally, the dividing line should be a return to the status quo ante,” Kissinger said, ““pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine … but a new war against Russia itself.” Furthermore, Kissinger is concerned that the West’s hostility will cause Russia to form a closer alliance with China.

Kissinger’s suggestion could end the war. Russia would feel as if they achieved the objective, and Ukraine would remain an independent country. Western nations would not need to spend billions of taxpayer funds on war while teetering on their own recessions. The food shortages due to the lack of wheat coming from Russia and Ukraine would end. Most importantly, the threat of the next world war would dissipate.

Zelensky’s advisor adamantly rejected the peace offer. “The shortest way to end the war – weapons, money, embargo,” Mykhailo Podolyak declared on Twitter. That may be the easiest solution for those in power, but it comes at the expense of the people. Ukraine and its Western allies will continue throwing money and fuel on the problem until the global economy crumbles so that they can reset it to their liking.

Biden Spreads Inflation Lies on Twitter. Jeff Bezos’ Response Is Priceless | DM CLIPS | Rubin Report


Posted originally on the The Rubin Report  on Rumble on May 23, 2022

Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” talks about Jeff Bezos calling out Joe Biden’s inflation lies. Jeff Bezos attacked Joe Biden’s statement which connected inflation with corporate tax rates. Even Democrats like Bezos are turning on Biden as the US economy continues to tank amid inflation, supply chain problems, and market crashes.

Horrific Elementary School Shooting in Ulvalde, Texas, 19 Students Killed and Two Teachers3


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 24, 2022 | Sundance 

According to officials and media reporting from Texas.  Fourteen eighteen nineteen children and a teacher two teachers have been killed at a Texas elementary school by an 18-year-old gunman who was then shot dead by police. The shooting happened in Ulvade, Texas.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott held a press conference naming 18-year-old Salvador Ramos, a student at Uvalde High School, as the gunman who shot and killed 14 Robb elementary school students and one teacher on Tuesday afternoon. WATCH:

The gunman was a resident of the community and entered the school with a handgun, and possibly a rifle, and opened fire, Abbott said. He said the shooter was likely killed by responding officers but that the events were still being investigated.

Behind the Scenes of US Military’s Decline & Navy SEALs | Jack Carr | LIFESTYLE | Rubin Report


Posted by The Rubin Report  Published on Rumble on May 22, 2022 

Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” talks to Jack Carr, the author of such bestsellers as “Savage Son”, “True Believer” and “The Terminal List”, about the hardest aspects of being a Navy SEAL, what he learned about Hollywood filming “The Terminal List” for Amazon, and the history of the decline of US military power. First, Jack shares what it’s really like to train to be a Navy SEAL. He also opens up about the emotional challenges of being on a special forces SEAL team and the events that no training can prepare you for. He also shares the details that the U.S. government demanded he change in his books. Next, Jack explains how Chris Pratt and Antoine Fuqua became involved in turning “The Terminal List” into an Amazon series. He also shares what the non-woke side of Hollywood is really like. Jack also shares stories of liberal friends in Los Angeles panic buying guns for the first time and being shocked by the restrictions that they helped to vote in. Finally, Jack reveals why the US military is in decline despite major advances in military technology. He explains the origins of the military industrial complex and how the failed Afghanistan withdrawal didn’t surprise anyone familiar with the rewarding of failure in the armed forces. He explains why Craig Whitlock’s “The Afghanistan Papers” is so revealing and what has gone wrong in the military where failed leaders simply leave and get high paying jobs in the defense industry.

The Biden Administration Deliberately Destroyed Our Capacity to Produce Energy


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted May 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Everyone who voted for Biden will continue to see their future utterly destroyed. The climate change people are deliberately destroying the capacity to produce energy without any alternative in place. The word from DC is that they “do not give a sh-t” about the people. They want to destroy our ability to produce fossil fuels before they are thrown out of office if that is even possible.

Alaskan Senator Sullivan explains that the Biden Administration is DELIBERATELY creating an energy crisis and then wants to blame oil companies and Putin. Senator Sullivan explains what Biden has done in just the last three weeks.

Then at the same time, they want farmers to grow only green crops and terminate beef production. The Neocons want to wage war against Russian and China. And nobody stands up and asks – “WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?”

Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer Team Up to Expedite Finland and Sweden Entry into NATO


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 23, 2022 | sundance 

The preparations and proactive moves to establish the global cleaving are being carried out by Wall Street globalists, the World Economic Forum and the various western politicians who align with the objective.  The opinion of the citizens within each nation are irrelevant to the decisions of the leaders.

Fundamentally, the big picture dynamic is to create a global network of allied nations based on one overarching principle, energy and human control through the carbon trading platform.  There are multiple moving puzzle pieces, but one big dynamic. Western government leaders are cleaving the world into two economic systems.

One economic system will be based on traditional energy as the underpinning of the economy.  One system will be based on renewable energy, with climate change agenda as the overarching basis for all of their economic shifts.  Pressure from within traditional alliances like the G7, G20, NATO etc, will create the wedge.  Terms like Build Back Better, Green New Deal, Paris Treaty Accords, and other reference points are part of this cleaving agenda.

Each nation will eventually have to make a decision about which team they will join.  The entry of Finland and Sweden into the NATO alliance is only one part of this dynamic.

WASHINGTON – Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) plan to present a resolution that will press the Biden administration to rush the paperwork for Finland and Sweden to join NATO.

In the resolution text, first obtained by Politico, both Senate leaders note the roles played by the Nordic countries in organizations such as the United Nations and the European Union, and their neutral stance on matters pertaining to Europe as reasons why they should join the alliance.

The resolution calls on President Biden to move swiftly to complete all necessary documents involving both countries’ NATO membership so the Senate can advance the measure, also calling on fellow NATO members to swiftly complete their own ratification processes. (read more)

As we evaluate the geopolitical ramifications of everything from military alliances to food distribution and trade, this overarching global cleaving should be the prism to determine the motive of each move.  Unfortunately, as mentioned, the opinion of the average citizen within each system is irrelevant to the decisionmakers.

It is very easy to see how this global split is being created. It is much more challenging to figure out how, or even if, it can be stopped.

In the United States we have a federation of states, a constitutional republic, so we can try and combat the agenda by demanding state government draw hard boundaries from federal intervention.  However, this battle is going to get increasingly difficult.  Freedom is not expanding in this era, it is contracting.

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Biden Say U.S. Willing to Use Military Action Against China to Protect Taiwan


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 23, 2022

The last question from the assembled press pool in Tokyo, Japan, brought about the most serious foreign policy response from the installed occupant of the White House.  Joe Biden said he is willing to use military force against China if Beijing decides to take over Taiwan.

[Transcript] – Q    Very quickly: You didn’t want to get involved in the Ukraine conflict militarily for obvious reasons.  Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan, if it comes to that?

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  Yes.

Q    You are?

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  That’s the commitment we made.  That’s the commitment we made.  We are not — Look, here’s the situation: We agree with the One China policy; we’ve signed on to it and all the attendant agreements made from there.  But the idea that — that it can be taken by force — just taken by force — is just not a — is just not appropriate.  It will dislocate the entire region and be another action similar to what happened in — in Ukraine.  And so, it’s a burden that is even stronger.

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Kissinger on Ukraine


Armstrong Economics Blog/Geopolitical re-Posted May 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I am sure he would never remember me, but we met a long time ago in Washington and he taught me a lot. I had asked him the question about the China v Russia tactic under Nixon. At 99, he still has a sharp mind. My mother died at 99 and she too retained a sharp mind until the end.