ANSWER: We are already experiencing it. Normally, the standard definition of “stagflation” has been explained as slow economic growth with relatively high unemployment/or economic stagnation that takes place with rising prices. Some have also defined it as a period of inflation combined with a decline in the gross domestic product (GDP).
Stagflation became a term that defined the 1970s because economic growth was still positive, but the rate of inflation was far greater due to the price shock of the OPEC embargo. Because of the Democrats constantly pushing to raise taxes, they sent corporations fleeing offshore, and it was NOT merely because of the tax rate. I testified before the House Ways & Means Committee on taxation and they wanted to know why NO American company got a contract from China like constructing the Yellow River Dam. I explained that German companies were NOT taxed on worldwide income, and as such, they were already 40% less than an American company because Americans pay taxes on worldwide income, and the ONLY other country to that was Japan. Thus, American companies moved offshore, NOT because labor was cheaper, but so they could complete.
As a result, I provided our analysis that showed when we allocated trade according to the flag of the company instead of where something was manufactured, then the US had a trade surplus instead of a trade deficit. Trump understood that and offered a one-time tax deal to bring their profits home. The Democrats screamed because they wanted 40% in taxes. But they would not bring the money home and so they got 0%.
Currently, as we move into 2024, this entire COVID scam has seriously disrupted the supply chain. Companies shifted to Just-In-Time inventory systems to save on financing an inventory. But then COVID lockdowns came and this resulted in chronic shortages.
So your answer is we are already in a STAGFLATION mode because inflation will surpass economic growth. With the dramatic tax increases the Democrats want to shove down the economy’s throat, all we will see is a decline in economic growth with rising prices thanks to chronic shortages. So we get the worst of two worlds.
The Democrats are deliberately pushing the World Economic Forum agenda and are actively trying to confiscate wealth while simultaneously crushing the economy to Build Back Better. Just like George Bush Jr took the blame for the Iraq war, which was all Cheney, Biden will go down in history as the patsy for this foreign infiltration of the United States to change our economy into a Marxist wonderland.
COMMENT: Marty; the Fed quietly published the banks it was funding in the Repo Crisis. I just wanted to say, you are always right. The press claimed it was tax time, but you said it was the crisis in European banks. Your sources are always spot on. Thanks for the light of truth.
PG
REPLY: Yes, that story that the liquidity crisis occurred because US corporations withdrew large amounts from the banks in order to make quarterly tax payments was the most absurd propaganda I ever heard. Why then do we not see the same liquidity crisis event during tax season?
The bulk of the loans covered foreign banks, as well as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Securities. It was all driven by the simple fact that Merkel said there would be no bailout for Deutsche Bank, which was the major derivatives counterparty problem involving Wall Street. Deutsche Bank had a major derivatives book, and if it failed, it would have taken down US banks. Deutsche Bank was in crisis and then it was too big to merge with Commerzbank. They had to lay off nearly 20,000 staff and a major effort was undertake to try to isolate its toxic assets.
That is why the Fed had to step in as the market maker to bail out Europe for US banks all backed off. I really do not know who makes up these stories to try to hide the truth. But they always do in hopes of preventing panics. This time, the game is up.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 13, 2021 | Sundance | 249 Comments
I do not expect White House Spokesperson Jennifer Psaki to understand how her bosses policies are driving massive price increases; nor do I expect Psaki to understand economics and inflationary impacts. However, the scale of her false statements surrounding inflation are not just false, they are now dangerous.
Following the release of the consumer price index [SEE table 2], in her press briefing today, Jen Psaki outlined the White House perspective on inflation, and specifically the Fed claims surrounding “transitory inflation.”
In her statements today, Psaki referenced people comparing the prices of 2021 consumable goods to 2020 and 2019. [Video prompted below] Within the statements, the scale of falsity is off the charts. WATCH [Video at 19:00 to 22:42, prompted]
There is not one single thing about that three minute verbal exchange that is accurate. Fast turn consumable goods, groceries etc., did not drop in 2020 during the first year of the pandemic. Factually, all goods but especially consumable goods increased in price throughout the pandemic, because demand actually increased and the supply chains were unable to keep up.
Example. A loaf of bread at $2.50 in 2019, climbed to $3.00 in 2020. That price jumped again to $3.75 this year (2021) and will likely continue rising as monetary policy driven inflation continues devaluing our currency.
Even if, as Psaki claims, inflation slows down (not likely) – “decelerating inflation” does not mean declining prices; it means a slower rate of price increase. Stuff still costs more, it just costs more at a slower rate. Consumable goods will cost more in 2022 than they do this year. The 2022 loaf of bread likely to climb to $4.00; it will never return to the 2019 price of $2.50 because the dollar is worth less.
This massive inflation is a direct result of the multinational agenda of the Biden administration in combination with the spending spree. Inflation is a feature not a flaw, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with COVID. The first group to admit what was obvious were banks, specifically Bank of America, because the monetary policy is the primary cause.
You might remember, when President Trump initiated tariffs against China (steel, aluminum and more), Southeast Asia (product specific), Europe (steel, aluminum and direct products), Canada (steel, aluminum, lumber and dairy specifics), the financial pundits screamed at the top of their lungs that consumer prices were going to skyrocket. They didn’t. CTH knew they wouldn’t because essentially those trading partners responded in the exact same way the U.S. did decades ago when the import/export dynamic was reversed.
Trump’s massive, and in some instances targeted, import tariffs against China, SE Asia, Canada and the EU not only did not increase prices, the prices of the goods in the U.S. actually dropped. Trump’s policies led the largest deflation in consumer prices in decades. At the same time, Trump’s domestic economic policies drove employment and wages higher than any time in the past forty years.
With Donald Trump’s policies, we were in an era where job growth was strong, wages were rising and consumer prices were falling. The net result was more disposable income for the middle class, more demand for stuff, and ultimately that’s why the U.S. economy was so strong.
♦Going Deep – To retain their position, China and the EU responded to U.S. tariffs by devaluing their currency as an offset to higher prices. It started with China, because their economy is so dependent on exports to the U.S.
China first started subsidizing the targeted sectors hit by tariffs. However, as the Chinese economy was under pressure, they stopped purchasing industrial products from the EU, that slowed the EU economy and made the impact of U.S. tariffs, later targeted in the EU direction, more impactful.
When China (total communist control over their banking system) devalued their currency to avoid Tariff price increase, it had an unusual effect. The cost of all Chinese imports dropped, not just on the tariff goods.
Imported stuff from China dropped in price at the same time the U.S. dollar was strong. This meant it took less dollars to import the same amount of Chinese goods; and those goods were at a lower price. As a result, we were importing deflation…. the exact opposite of what the financial pundits claimed would happen.
In response to a lessening of overall economic activity, the EU then followed the same approach as China. The EU was already facing pressure from the exit of the U.K. from the EU system; so, when the EU central banks started pumping money into their economy and offsetting with subsidies, they essentially devalued the euro. The outcome for U.S.-EU importers was the same as the outcome for U.S.-China importers. We began importing deflation from the EU side.
In the middle of this, there was a downside for U.S. exporters. With China and the EU devaluing their currency, the value of the dollar increased. This made purchases from the U.S. more expensive. U.S. companies who relied on exports (lots of agricultural industries and raw materials) took a hit from higher export prices. However, and this part is really interesting, it only made those companies more dependent on domestic sales for income. With less being exported, there was more product available in the U.S for domestic purchase…. this dynamic led to another predictable outcome, even lower prices for U.S. consumers.
From 2017 through early 2020, U.S. consumer prices were dropping. We were in a rare place where actual deflation was happening. Combine lower prices with higher wages, and you can easily see the strength within the U.S. economy.
For the rest of the world this seemed unfair, and indeed they cried foul – especially Canada. However, this was America First in action. Middle-class Americans were benefiting from a Trump reversal of 40 years of economic policies like those that created the rust belt.
Industries were investing in the U.S., and that provided leverage for Trump’s trade policies to have stronger influence. If you wanted access to this expanding market, those foreign companies needed to put their investment money into the U.S. and create even more U.S. jobs. This was an expanding economic spiral where Trump was creating more and more economic pies. Every sector of the U.S. economy was benefiting more, but the blue-collar working class was gaining the most benefit of all.
♦ REVERSE THIS… and you now understand where we are with inflation.
The JoeBama economic policies are exactly the reverse. The monetary policy that pumps money into into the U.S. economy, via COVID bailouts and ever-increasing federal spending, drops the value of the dollar and makes the dependency state worse.
With the FED pumping money into the U.S. system, the dollar value plummets. Now the value of the Chinese and EU currency increases. This means it costs more to import products, and that is the primary driver of price increases in consumer goods.
Simultaneously, a lower dollar value means cheaper exports for the massive multinational conglomerates who now control our farms and farming resources (Big AG and raw materials). China, SE Asia and even the EU purchase U.S. food and raw material at a lower price. That means less food and raw material in the U.S. which drives up prices for U.S. consumers.
It is a perfect storm. Higher costs for imported goods (durable goods) and higher costs for domestic consumable goods (food). Combine this dynamic with massive increases in energy costs from ideological Green New Deal policy, and that’s fuel on a fire of inflation.
Annualized inflation is now around 8 percent, and it will likely keep increasing in the short term. This is terrible for wage earners in the U.S. who are now seeing no wage growth and higher prices. Real wages are decreasing by the fastest rate in decades. We are now in a downward spiral where your paycheck buys less. As a result, consumer middle-class spending contracts. Eventually, this means household purchasing of durable goods drop because people have less disposable income.
Gasoline costs more (+50%), food costs more (+10% at a minimum) and as a result, real wages drop; disposable income is lost. Ultimately this is the cause of Stagflation. A stagnant economy and inflation. None of this is caused by COVID-19. All of this is caused by economic policy and monetary policy sold under the guise of COVID-19.
This inflationary period will not stall out until the U.S. economy can recover from the massive amount of federal spending.
If the spending continues, the Fed keeps printing money. The dollar continues to be weakened. As a result the inflationary period continues. It is a spiral that can only be stopped if the policies are reversed…. and the only way to stop these insane policies is to get rid of the Wall Street democrats and republicans who are constructing them.
Tucker Carlson hit this point very well last night:
COMMENT: All these increased demands for my product is great, but it comes with quite a wholesale flower prices have also increased significantly making the cost of the arrangements much higher. Wholesale rose prices have jumped 56%. Last year I could buy a pack of 25 roses for $18, where today they cost $28. I have to pass these costs onto my customers, but even with the increased cost people are still buying more flowers this year than the same time last year.
SH
REPLY: Thank you for this info. It is hard to find any industry that is not suffering from a shortage of supply.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 8, 2021 | Sundance | 235 Comments
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released the September jobs report [DATA HERE] showing a dismal 194,000 jobs added against a financial media and Wall Street expectation of 500,000 jobs. [CNBC Apoplectic] The labor participation rate in the worker economy overall has not moved since Biden’s inauguration, and stands at 61.6%.
Digging into the numbers, what is happening is exactly what we ¹should expect. Outside the immediacy of private sector durable goods retailers seeing a pull back in consumer purchasing due to inflation (which we continue to point out is the critical issue); the local economies impacted by a declining tax base are key early indicators of contracting economic activity. Wage gains are not keeping up with inflation.
Inside the data, you will note [Table B-1] a significant decline in Local Government Education of -144,000 jobs. Obviously the collapse of in-school teaching leads to less jobs in this sector overall. However, the drop happened at the exact same time students were returning to a new school year, and this drop is also reflected year-over-year. Schools were impacted by COVID in Sept 2020 more than schools are impacted by COVID in Sept 2021, yet this year the jobs are completely gone. Something bigger is happening in this sector.
Additionally, healthcare services show a major drop in employment (-37k) specifically as it relates to elderly care and nursing homes. All the sub-sectors of elder care are significantly lower in employment.
Retail was essentially flat (+56k) considering the scale of the sector; and durable goods within the retail sector show declines in employment. Again this would indicate less consumer spending on durable goods, as food and energy inflation are prioritizing spending habits. Leisure and Hospitality (+74k) with hotels and restaurants doing the majority of the hiring as the rebound in this sector continues.
[¹Here it is important to note a slow cascade effect that will take time and we are not near the peak of the trouble yet. As a historic reminder, the epicenter of the peak financial crisis (housing) was triggered in Nov/December 2005. However, the trouble was not visible on a national scale until 2007. Economic data shows the current triggering event took place in May/June of this year. Make of that what you will]
(CNBC) […] The U.S. economy created jobs at a much slower-than-expected pace in September, a pessimistic sign about the state of the economy though the total was held back substantially by a sharp drop in government employment.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 194,000 in the month, compared with the Dow Jones estimate of 500,000, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, better than the expectation for 5.1% and the lowest since February 2020.
[…] “This is quite a deflating report,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director at job placement site Indeed. “This year has been one of false dawns for the labor market. Demand for workers is strong and millions of people want to return to work, but employment growth has yet to find its footing.” (read more)
[INFLATION] is terrible for wage earners in the U.S. who are now seeing no wage growth and higher prices. Real wages are decreasing by the fastest rate in decades. We are now in a downward spiral where your paycheck buys less. As a result, consumer middle-class spending contracts. Eventually, this means housing prices drop because people cannot afford higher mortgage payments.
Gasoline costs more (+50%), food costs more (+10% at a minimum) and as a result, real wages drop; disposable income is lost. Ultimately this is the cause of Stagflation. A stagnant economy and inflation. None of this is caused by COVID-19. All of this is caused by economic policy and monetary policy sold under the guise of COVID-19.
Been reading you for a very long time. You are very insightful.
One thing I have to admit is that the Powers That Be (WEF, etc.) did not keep it in the dark of what they were planning. Definitely out there for anyone to find and read. But if you did find it and believed what they were doing, you would be labeled a conspiracy nut.
Turns out all the conspiracies are coming true. Don’t know if I should laugh or cry.
REPLY: People judge others by themselves. I have gone head to head with all of these people. I have traded in billions against all of them. They were trying to manipulate the yen in March 1999. I stood up at our Tokyo conference, warned all our clients what they were doing, and how to defeat them. I believe Soros lost $1 billion on that one.
I stood up and warned our clients that they were going to manipulate the silver market from September 1997 to January 1998 taking it up to $7 and then crash it. Rally the metals and they suck in every goldbug and then slam it. That’s how they make their money.
Phibro walked across the silver ring and showed Buffett’s orders to my guy on the floor and said come on – join us! I knew it was Buffett for he was behind the previous silver manipulation when he took charge of Solomon Brothers. PhiBro convinced him to get involved in trading the metals. I have been head to head against these people for decades. They do not like me very much and assumed that since I was correct and they lost, I just had more minions than they did. They did not think Socrates was real. They always judged me by themselves – I just had more influence than they could buy. Hence, they have ALWAYS tried to get me involved. I’m not interested. I could see where this all ends.
Yes, they are the ones who were behind my case. The government prosecutors are stupid. They said $1 billion was missing and they had no idea where it was. It is physically IMPOSSIBLE to get a billion dollars out of a bank. There has to be a withdrawal slip even if there was that much in cash, or it has to be wired where they would know precisely where it went. In the end, the bank had to pay back all my clients because they stole the money – plain and simple. Neither the press nor the prosecution ever asked how does $1 billion vanish from a bank without a wire transfer? The corruption is unbelievable. They put a gag order on me to prevent me from helping my clients against HSBC. It is just unbelievable how they protect the banks in New York City.
So while others spin conspiracy theories or pretend to have sources with connections, I have been in the middle staring often eye to eye with these people. All I can say is you have to look at yourself in the mirror every morning. You either stick with your own values, and you’ve got to keep putting one foot in front of the other as they say, or you blame everyone else and just say I want my share no matter what. When it’s time to die, it will all flash before your eyes and then it is too late.
They will fail. They are getting desperate now. Their window starts to close in 2022. And since they read everything I write – FU!
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is now defending the Biden administration’s proposal that would require banks to report ALL data to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on transactions over $600. With the NSA collecting every email, phone call, and text you make, and now the IRS will have every time you even pay rent or a car payment, they will know absolutely everything about everybody.
Yellen has the audacity to claim there will be $7 trillion of income over ten years that people will not pay taxes on. This is what I have been saying. They look at us, we the people, as the Great Unwashed who are nothing more than stupid cattle to be herded.
She thinks, oh, it really will not impact the average person, and that is absurd. It used to be $10,000 transactions, then the Patriot Act lowered that to $3,000, and now it will be $600. I was going to go to Singapore for a conference and to work there in the region with our many clients. I asked a friend there to find a nice furnished apartment rather than a hotel. He rented it for me, and I sent him a bank wire. When I showed up two months later, he said, “By the way, I never got that wire.” I called my bank to put a trace on it since it was deducted from my account. HSBC returned it the next day, as they were just sitting on it until someone asked.
HSBC refused to credit it to his account BECAUSE they could not verify that I had no interest in that account, for perhaps he was just a holder for me to hide money offshore. I had to physically write him a check. That is the new state of the world. I can ONLY wire money internationally to a business, but not to any individual.
And now that will be $600! If your child is in need of money because someone stole their credit card and wallet, will you be able to send them money urgently?
Yellen is calling this collection of information “routine,” which is the total end of all privacy. Did those who voted for Biden expect this too? When I bought a house in the nineties, I simply added my children on the deed. Today, you can’t do that. The IRS calls that income and wants their pound of flesh.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 5, 2021 | Sundance | 273 Comments
God bless James O’Keefe and keep his wolverine bloodline safe. Following up on a fantastic undercover sting operation [STORY HERE] Project Veritas confronts Pfizer scientist Nick Karl with the recorded undercover video of his statements. WATCH WHAT HAPPENS:
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 4, 2021 | Sundance | 95 Comments
The Democrats control the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. If Democrats want to raise the debt ceiling they can do so at any time. However, because media provides them cover; and because the larger American electorate do not seem to understand how Congress works; the White House is attempting to blame Republicans for Democrats not wanting to raise the debt ceiling. The insanity continues….
The Roman emperor who marked the complete fall of the Roman Empire in the 3rd century, 260 AD, was Valerian (253-260 AD). In 259 AD, Valerian moved on to Edessa to challenge the Persians, but an outbreak of plague killed a significant portion of his legionaries, which weakened the Roman position overall in Asia. This led to the Persians smelling an opportunity.
While fighting the Persians, Valerian sent two letters to the Senate ordering steps be taken against Christians, for their rejection of the gods was undermining the empire. The first letter was sent during 257 AD, which ordered the Christian clergy to perform sacrifices to the Roman gods or face banishment. The second letter was the following year and ordered the execution of Christian leaders. It also required Christian senators and equities to perform acts of worship to the Roman gods or lose their titles and property. If any official refused to worship the gods, they were to be executed.
Additionally, any Roman matron who would not comply should lose their property and also be banished. Civil servants and members of the Imperial household refusing to worship the Roman gods were to be turned into slaves and sent to work on the Imperial estates. The extent of all of these directives indicates that Christianity was becoming widespread through all the classes within society. The parallels are prompting emails for when Valerian was captured by the Persians. While he was trying to force everyone to pray for his victory, Rome collapsed in total disarray. He divided the empire between Pagan and Christain, blamed the Christians for the decline of the empire just as Biden is now blaming the unvaccinated. We seem to be standing on the very edge of a cliff with the same abyss with respect to the fall of our world monetary system. Ah, how history repeats.
Biden has outrageously demanded anyone in the military who refuses to be vaccinated, which is 46%, is to be dishonorably discharged, stripping them of all pensions and benefits. The Republicans have rushed in a bill to say any soldier refusing to vaccinate must be only honorably discharged.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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