Steve Mnuchin is Not Pretending, States U.S. Economy is Already in Recession


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 26, 2022 | Sundance

A lot of people didn’t like Steven Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary, I did.  Secretary Mnuchin was an inside player, a billionaire himself, who worked for the outside team.  He already had a full bank account and carried ‘f**k-off’ money.   That, combined with Wilbur Ross having the same ability, was exactly what we needed to execute the America-First MAGAnomic resurgence.

The U.S. middle-class saw and felt the benefits.  Economic security is national security, at a nationwide and even individual level.  Mnuchin, Ross and Lighthizer constructed that economic outcome guided by the larger strategy of President Donald J Trump.

RIYADH, Oct 26 (Reuters) – Former U.S. treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Wednesday he believed the United States was in a recession and said this would continue.

Speaking at Riyadh’s flagship investment conference FII, he said: “I think we’ll probably see a peak of 4.5% 10-year rates.”

“I think you are going to see inflation in the U.S. begin to come under control, it will probably be a two-year period,” he added.

He said the U.S. and China must learn to co-exist. He added that the Middle East’s economic issues need to be dealt with regionally. (link)

Bidenomics – Home Values Continue Dropping Quickly, Especially on West Coast – Meanwhile Rents Continue Increasing


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 25, 2022 | Sundance 

As inflation bites the working-class hard, U.S. household savings rates continue dropping fast.  When combined with drops in home values the loss in home equity compounds the issue.  American families are getting poorer much more quickly under Joe Biden’s economic policies.

According to the Wall Street Journal home values dropped in August at their highest monthly rate of decrease since 2011 {link}.  In part this is driven by higher mortgage rates which are pricing home buyers out of the market.  However, the regional impact is worse on the west coast than east or southeast.

[…] The housing market has slowed abruptly this year due to a rapid increase in mortgage rates, which has raised borrowing costs for home buyers and pushed many prospective buyers out of the market. Existing-home sales fell for eight straight months through September. (link)

As noted in The Daily Mail review of a similar analysis: “It’s Northern California that leads the way, with San Jose experiencing a drop of 10.8 percent since September, followed by San Francisco at 8.5 percent, then it’s Seattle at 8.2 percent, Denver at 5.8 percent, San Diego 5.2 percent, Portland 5.1 percent, Las Vegas 4.8 percent and Phoenix at 4.4 percent.” (link)

What we are seeing is a confluence of events, generally brought about by the outcomes of larger Biden administration policy.  Massive increases in energy costs are the result of energy policy; those increases are fueling inflation from the supply side on food, fuel, electricity, home heating etc.  Simultaneously, Fed monetary policy is driving consumer demand down.  The recession debate continues amid the economic think-tanks while Main Street outcomes show we have been in a recessionary period all year.

The majority of consumers have stopped purchasing nonessential goods and services. As a result, the only thing holding the economy together is employment.  Sooner or later, as the natural lags in the economy bite down, the lack of consumer spending (noted in increased inventories) is going to result in lay-offs and unemployment.  It’s almost a guarantee at this point once the boxcar impact of the prior supply chain shortages straightens out.

The third wave of food price increases is now here, and we are all likely starting to see those price increases in retail food stores.  Depending on how much higher energy prices go this winter (gasoline, natural gas, home heating oil etc.) the middle class will again be making tough checkbook decisions on spending.

On a MACRO level (nationwide averages) I would not be surprised to see home prices drop to where they were in the beginning of the second quarter of 2021.  Home sales have dropped quickly, and home inventories are now climbing.  Home buyers are now in the position to negotiate for much lower prices as fewer home buyers are in the market.

If you did not purchase a home in the past year, you likely have stable equity.  Depending on region, those who did purchase a home this year will have to wait quite a while before the price level returns.  Meanwhile rents continue increasing as middle-class workers are stuck between diminishing real wages (Biden inflation) and higher home borrowing costs (Biden monetary policy).

New York Supreme Court Orders Reinstatement of Employees Fired Over Vaccine Status with Back Pay


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 25, 2022 | Sundance

The New York Supreme Court has ordered reinstatement for all employees fired over their nonvaccinated status and ordered back pay for those who were unlawfully terminated from employment [Full pdf Ruling Here].

The state supreme court found that being vaccinated does not stop the spread of COVID-19, saying the vaccine mandate and firing of the non-compliant employees was “arbitrary and capricious.”  This is a strong rebuke to the totalitarian fiats created by state leaders including the state governor, mayor of New York City and health commissioner.

(SOURCE)

NEW YORK – The New York state Supreme Court has reinstated all employees who were fired for not being vaccinated, ordering back pay and saying their rights had been violated.

The court found Monday that “being vaccinated does not prevent an individual from contracting or transmitting COVID-19.” New York City Mayor Eric Adams claimed earlier this year that his administration would not rehire employees who had been fired over their vaccination status.

NYC alone fired roughly 1,400 employees for being unvaccinated earlier this year after the city adopted a vaccine mandate under former Mayor Bill de Blasio. (read more)

NBC Pushes Midterm Media Poll


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 23, 2022 | Sundance

NBC’s Mark Murray {Eyeroll} produces a midterm media poll {DATA HERE} to frame the 2022 election and claim a tight race for both Democrats and Republicans.  Despite collapsing economic numbers, widespread inflation and disapproval on every category, NBC finds the #1 issue for all voters is “The Threat to Democracy.”

NBC’s Chuck Todd gives the spin on the outcome:

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71% of the country say we are on the wrong track (20% approve).

57% of the country disapproves of the job Biden is doing with the economy (38% approve).

50% of the country says things will get worse (20% think will improve)….

…. But it’s a close election?…

…. And the #1 concern is “the threat to democracy?

It’s all propaganda.

The Albertsons and Kroger Merger Faces Legislative Scrutiny as European Company Ahold Assembles Competitive Bid


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 22, 2022 | Sundance 

Last week we discussed the announcement of a $24.6 billion merger deal between Kroger and Albertsons supermarkets {Go Deep}.  The majority stockholders in both companies are institutional investment groups, Blackrock, Vanguard and Cerberus.

The merger would consolidate the second and third largest food retailers in the U.S. and would certainly dilute the competitive dynamic amid the supermarket industry.  Concern over price controls and decreased competition has now arrived on the desks of DC legislators who are reviewing the deal.

(Reuters) – […] U.S. Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar and Republican Senator Mike Lee were quick to say that they would hold a hearing to discuss the merger. A European interloper could make deal plans even harder.

Frans Muller, Chief Executive of Stop & Shop owner Ahold Delhaize (AD.AS), has made no secret of his desire to consolidate U.S. grocers. The Netherlands-based firm is already the fourth largest grocery chain. If it managed to cobble together a better offer than Kroger’s bid for Albertsons, it would become the second largest supermarket. Plane spotters tracked two Albertsons jets next to Ahold Delhaize’s U.S. base in Massachusetts in early August. Ahold declined to comment.

Ahold can also afford a chunky deal. The Dutch grocer has debt of just 2 times its $6.7 billion of EBITDA estimated for this year, according to Refinitiv. That’s 50% less than the average. If investors reckoned there was merit in a deal, Muller could also use equity to beef up the offer. At more than 12 times, Ahold’s price-to-earnings ratio is a fifth higher than Albertsons’, giving it currency.

Aspects of the deal might make it easier for antitrust authorities to get comfortable, too. Kroger and Albertsons would have a combined market share of 13%, whereas a deal with its Dutch rival gives much less of the pie. Ahold focuses on the East Coast of America whereas Albertsons has a big presence on the West Coast. So regulators wouldn’t have to worry about a larger Kroger shutting down competing Albertsons stores.

[…] U.S. senators who scrutinise antitrust issues expressed “serious concerns” about grocery company Kroger’s plan to buy rival Albertsons, and said they would hold a hearing in November on the $25 billion deal.

The announcement by Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar, chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee antitrust panel, and Republican Senator Mike Lee confirmed a previous report by Reuters.

A Kroger spokesperson said the company looked forward to the hearing. “We welcome the opportunity to outline how this transaction will benefit America’s consumers by expanding access to fresh, affordable food,” the company said in a statement.

The Federal Trade Commission is expected to review the deal to ensure it complies with antitrust law. (read more)

This might be one of those rare times when a legislative and regulatory review may actually be beneficial to the outcome for the consumer.

December 16, 2020, Dozen Large Eggs $1.79

October 11, 2022, Dozen Large Eggs $7.29

(Source)

(DCBusinessDaily) – […] Scott Rasmussen Number of the Day shows 76% of voters have seen their grocery prices go up in the last month. The poll also found 60% of voters believe prices will continue to rise. Additionally, 54% of voters say gas prices have gone up in the last month and 59% believe gas prices will continue to go up. Ballotpedia’s poll methodology surveyed 1,200 registered voters from Oct. 6-8. According to the Ballotpedia website, the poll was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage and political party to reflect a fair balance of voters across the country. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) summary for the nation on Oct. 13, which found that the rate of inflation over the last 12 months stands at 8.2%. It rose 0.4% in September. In the last year, food costs have risen by 11.2%, energy costs have increased by 19.8%, gas prices have risen by 18.2% and the cost to purchase a new vehicle has increased by 9.4%. (more)

Joe Biden Struggles with 2024 Question During Live Broadcast


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 21, 2022 | Sundance

I’m not sure what’s more remarkable; the transparency of Joe Biden’s cognitive decline, or MSNBC broadcasting it.  Then again, this was live at around 5:30pm ET, so there wasn’t an opportunity to edit out the disturbing part.  Sundowning?

During a live MSNBC interview broadcast today, Joe Biden was asked about his decision to run for reelection in 2024.  When a short follow-up question is asked, things got weird and uncomfortable.  WATCH:

BIDEN: “It’s my intention to run again.”

MSNBC: “Dr. Biden is for it?”

BIDEN: crickets

MSNBC: (Uncomfortable) “Mr. President?”

BIDEN: (Confused) “Dr. Biden thinks that uh, my wife thinks that uh, that I uh, that, that we’re, that we’re doing something very important.”

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